Berner Street: No Plot, No Mystery

[FrankO]

I quite agree that Smith seemed totally unaware that anything had happened. While we can't assume that Eagle and Koze were shouting, the question arises as to why Smith didn't hear Lamb's whistle.

Hi George,

According to Lamb, two men came to him, running and shouting. At least, most newspapers have it like that. Also, the Times has Eagle stating that he “went to the Commercial-road, all the time shouting "Police!".”

As to the whistling, that happened a few minutes later, I think as a result of Lamb finding himself alone after sending Ayliffe away for the doctor. My guess would be that Smith, at the time of the whistling, was approaching the corner of Berner Street on Commercial Road, probably between Backchurch Lane and Berner Street. If so, there would be some 115 m/380 feet and a lot of houses/buildings between Smith and the whistle, which might explain why Smith didn’t hear it.

That would indicate to me that Smith was very close to the gateway when Lamb used his whistle, that Ayliffe had travelled to the surgery via Hampshire Ct, and Eagle used the southern route to Leman St. I haven't been able to find out how long Eagle had been in the area, or whether he actually knew the location of the P.S.. Might he have spent some time finding the building?

I don’t understand the first bit there. Why/how does it indicate that Smith was very close to the gateway when Lamb whistled?

As to Ayliffe going by Hampshire Court: that is quite possible, but would depend on the hypothesis of Smith’s route. If he wasn’t somewhere inside, then the best guess (or, at least, mine) would be that he was walking towards Gower’s Walk, so with his back towards Berner Street more than 125 m/410 feet from where Eagle & Kozebrodski would surface from Berner Street. If so, then Smith not seeing & hearing E & K calling for Lamb was due to his position and walking direction when the couple arrived at Commercial Road to find & fetch Lamb. Ayliffe going by Hampshire Ct. or going north on Berner St. wouldn’t make a difference.

But, of course, that’s only if we’d assume Smith was walking towards Gower’s Walk, after passing Backchurch Lane. If one prefers another route altogether, then everything would change and Ayliffe going by Hampshire Ct. might be of influence.

The best,
Frank

[JeffHamm]

Has anyone ever considered whether PC Smith didn't arrive at 12.35am, but in fact arrived at 12.43am, invented Parcelman and cut Stride's throat himself?

Not that I can think of, but given the number of theories out there I can't say it hasn't been suggested before with 100% certainty. I would suggest, however, that even if it had been, it's clearly not gained any traction.

He is never seen by any of the witnesses on his regular western approach along Faircloth Street, because based on his timings he should have walked past Stride AGAIN as he walked WEST past the junction with the murder site to the north of his location.

I don't think so. While I've not gone and done another calculation as to what time it would be when he went west past the south end of Berner Street, it would be a few minutes before the run starts (enough time for him to have turned the corner onto Back Church Lane and get around 30 feet up, or perhaps further if he patrols Sander Street on this leg of his beat. Either way, Stride is probably already dead in the ally when he goes by the south end of Berner Street.

So where was he between claiming to see Stride at 12.35am and his eventual arrival around 1.07am?

On his beat.

Judging by the route, he would have passed west towards Backchurch Lane some time between 12.50-12.55am...but he didn't.

Ok,so now I have gone and done the measurements and calculations.

By my calculations, depending upon whether or not he patrols Sander Street when going up Back Church Lane, he would be at the south end of Berner Street at 12:59:40 if he didn't, or 12:57:57 if he did. So you're correct, he probably didn't pass there at 12:50-12:55, but later than that by a few minutes.

Smith should have been seen by either Spooner, Brown, the courting couple or Mortimer IF he arrived at 12.35am on his previous pass by the murder site.

Why would Brown have seen him? Brown was home for 15 minutes (by his estimation) when the runners went by his house, so got his supper at roughly 12:46 and would be home in about a minute at a walking pace. So if we back PC Smith up 12 minutes from the south of Berner Street, we would expect to find him heading north on his return leg of patrolling Batty Street. At no point would Brown have seen him.

And how do we know the courting couple didn't see PC Smith? They were never identified, so what, and who, they saw is unknown, but that doesn't mean they didn't see him. We just don't know what or who they recall seeing.

What if Mortimer heard Smith passing by her door just 30 seconds AFTER he had just cut there throat?

Then Mortimer would have heard Stride's killer leaving the scene. But as there is nothing to suggest this happened, it is the same as saying "What if Deimschutz killed her upon his arrival", then she heard Stride's killer arriving in his pony and cart! It's just taking a random person from the night and guessing they could be the killer. That approach is rarely successful.

Either way, Smith must have been slacking off somewhere, because he is never witnessed anywhere other than Berner Street and unless he was a on fixed point duty, that doesn't make sense.

We know he was on a beat. I can't think of any PC, in any of the cases, that can be placed at any point on their beat other than at the time they become involved at the crime scene (other than by their own testimony). Hmmm, there might be one in the Nichols case with regards to their cape being left at the horse slaughterers. I think it comes up in terms of questioning whether or not he was slacking off. Nothing like that comes up with PC Smith, and other than that one, I can't see how PC Smith not being spotted on his beat at other times is any different from any other PC. In fact, Fanny's claim to have heard him actually makes him one of the very few PCs who could be said to have their location verified at a time other than the direct crime scene events.

So, he kills her and then walks north past Mortimers house at 12.45am just moments before Mortimer hears him pass by her door.
Smith then cuts west down Sanders St so that he is out of view of Mortimer. He then waits in Sanders St, checks himself over, disposes of the knife and waits until he hears the shouts of "police!"
He then walks through into backchurch lane and rejoins his route and arrives at the scene at 1.07am

But since that is based upon some claims which do not hold up, the conclusion, I'm afraid has to be seen as "unsupported".

Schwartz is then an actor hired to invent Bs Man and the assault...which nobody else saw or heard.

In this "unsupported" version, sure. But as I say, I don't think this is going to hold any water.

Lave has gone by 12.40am
Eagle has gone by 12.42am
Mortimer is at her door between 12.45-12.55am
Parcelman, BS man, Pipeman don't exist
Letchford is at her door at 12.50am
Brown sees the courting couple

Just another random hypothesis

Haha!

RD

I know you like to toss out ideas, which is fine. But you know, it's not that hard to try and test them yourself.

Have a play at the map resources here

You can choose various overlays, OS 1:1,056-1:2,640 Towns, 1840s-1860s is a good choice for the Berner Street case. Doesn't show the Bording School (it was built later), but the rest of the detail is good. You can use the measuring tools to get distances, and if you use patrol speeds of around 2.7-2.9 mph (remember 5280 feet per mile), you can work out how far a PC would cover in a given amount of time, and then measure that off on their beat to estimate where they would be. It's not that hard, and you can set things up in something like Excel to do the calculations for you, which makes it easier to just enter a new duration and get the new distance, or enter a distance to estimate the time required to cover it, and so forth. If you did that, you would have realised that Brown would never seen PC Smith. And given we do not know when Spooner gets to Fairclough, nor is there any reason for him to have noticed a PC on his beat while he's talking with his lady friend, it doesn't matter. And remember, Miss Letchford only comes to us because her brother says she was on the porch at 12:50, she never confirms this - it's quite a few steps removed from being a key witness statement. For all we know, she told her brother she was going to go out, but never actually did, and he was unaware that she didn't.

There is no basis for dismissing the existence of Parcelman, BS man, and Pipeman. In fact, while there's still lots of work to be done to fill in as much of the details as we can, it is currently looking like there may be two points in time when the Schwartz incident could have occurred - just before Fanny comes out for her vigil, but also shortly after she goes inside. The "pre-vigil" is the smaller window of opportunity, but it might just be long enough that we can't exclude it. Other estimates of things like PC Smith's passage at the south end of Berner Street (and his patrol of Fairclough) might help indicate at what point the Schwartz event has to be over, given none of the characters are spotted. Of course, B.S. could have left by going North, so it's really just the exiting of Schwartz and Pipeman we definately need to concern ourselves with as they exit south, and PC Smith doesn't indicate he saw them.

It's too soon to draw any conclusions though. There are a lot of characters, and the information we have is very messy, but that is what makes it a challenge.

- Jeff

[GBinOz]

Don't forget, when in a timeline I say PC Lamb is contacted at say 1:06, that time is Leman Street Police Station time, not the time PC Lamb's beat clock, which is likely to read something different from the LSPS. So if the two clocks differ by 3 minutes, PC Lamb would have the time at 1:03 when the Leman Street Police Station reads 1:06.

- Jeff

Hi Jeff,

While you are aware of the regard in which I hold your hypotheses, I find myself unable to agree in this regard.

The police station clocks were regulated to GMT by telegraph, so their times can be carved in stone, as can, I believe, the times of Reid and Phillips . However, I don't discount a reporter error in the Eagle at LSPS at 1:10. I am aware of only the single report - are you aware of any corroborating publications? From the answers provided by Monty, it is clear to me that there is a high probability that the Section Sergeant established local clock time corrections for GMT, and they would be likely to be near fixed point stations. YMMV. This, combined with the monotonous routine of the beat would, IMO, provide for an GMT time accuracy far superior to that of a doctor's pocket watch, particularly when that pocket watch appears to be out of sync with the Practice clock by about 6 minutes. I have a far less regard for civilian time guesstimates such as provided by Mortimer, Eagle, Lave and Brown as their estimates are based on intervals from the observation of a clock of unknown synchronisation. Once again, JMO.

Just to restate, I prefer to accept the police testimony of Lamb and Smith over the consideration of possible times computed from largely conflicting press reports. I do acknowledge that the beat PCs may have been 2-3 minutes out if they were at the end of their beat before they could reference their benchmark clock, I find 6-7 minutes difficult to accept.

Best regards, George

[The Rookie Detective]

Hmmm,

One thing that just occurred to me. It is obvious the Schwartz event cannot occur while PC Smith is patrolling Berner Street. So for the model that places the Schwartz event prior to Fanny's vigil, the start of her vigil would have be more than 2 minutes after PC Smith exits Berner Street.

The estimation for the time of PC Smith passing Fanny's is around 12:42:27, and that's about 3m 3 seconds into his patrol of the street, which based upon 2.7 mph, would require about 5 minutes (as I'm including Sander Street), so that would suggest he exits around 12:44:27, making the minimum time for Schwartz and Pipeman to have left the scene be around 12:46:27. But if we think B.S. kills Stride, we have to allow for B.S. to commit the murder and leave as well, which I'll just say is another minute, meaning Fanny doesn't emerge until closer to 12:47:27. Using the 8 minutes as her vigil time (as the average time for a 10 minute duration estimation), means she goes in at 12:55:27, and Deimschutz's arrival at 12:59:48 is pretty much her 4 minute delay estimation. Given she's likely to have overestimated the interval, then shifting her vigil start time a bit later would shrink that interval.

So, the estimations are not ruling out a pre-vigil Schwartz event, though the window for it is probably smaller than a post-vigil murder. As such, of the two models, the post-vigil is probably the safer bet, but neither can be ruled out.

I know it's looking like everything has to occur "just so", but that is the nature of more and more detailed models. The more calculations we conduct, none of which individually can be said to be too far off the mark, then the more time gets accounted for. Ideally, of course, one is trying to fill in the details for all of the time in question, but if one can do that, then of course it will look like "it had to have happened just so" - but that's sort of the idea - to work out what happened and when?

Also, even if we get a model of the events that appear to be "just so", we also have to remind ourselves that all of these times, and time windows, are not intended as exact fixed values, but the "windows" of the events can shrink and expand a bit, but where one shrinks another is likely to expand. The idea is to see if we can produce a sort of "prototype" model, where variations on it more or less adhere to the model times, and the actual truth is probably one of those variations, but our prototype is a good enough representation that we're not making any major errors.

There are some things I don't think we can work out very precisely. Lave's time in the yard, for example. We know it is probably before Fanny's vigil, but there is too little information to really pin-point it by trying to tie it into other events. It's probably also prior to PC Smith's patrol, so the lack of Stride's body being in the ally at that time doesn't preclude a pre-vigil murder/Schwartz event.

The young couple Fanny sees, and who may have been at the location after Stride was found murdered, would have to have arrived after the Schwartz event if it occurred pre-vigil, and it seems hard to work them in if the Schwartz event is post-vigil, so their presence may argue for a pre-vigil time, changing the assessment as to which model may fit better.

Also, a pre-vigil Schwartz event would fit better with Schwartz's police statement that the events occurred around 12:45, although post-vigil isn't out of the question either (just means Schwartz's estimation of the time was off, at least when compared to the Leman Street Police Station clock, which he doesn't have access to).

Anyway, I'm not really sure I have a strong opinion one way or the other at the moment, and I'm just sort of pondering things here. Given the oversights I've made in some of the calculations (and sorry for the number of corrections I've had to post. I often do these things when I have a few minutes to spare, and given the complications we're dealing with, I really should have more than a few minutes to ensure that I'm not making a data entry error), I think I'm going to have another go at my workbook. I've got a few ideas as to how to make it a bit more versatile, while at the same time making it a bit more robust against "user error" (i.e. I need to Jeff-proof it).

- Jeff

That's why the entire Schwartz incident was fiction, including BS man and Pipeman and the entire Anti Semitic rhetoric

Schwartz was paid to give a false statement to detract from the truth.

But for a lie to work and be convincing, you have to embed it with a foundation of truth.


I would imagine the kill time of Stride was at 12.45am and she lay in the dark for up to 15 minutes before she was found.


By bringing Smiths time forward, it makes everyone else's timing in the aftermath of the finding of the body fit.

But by doing so it exposes Schwartz and the "assault," for what it is...fake news


But why?

Well why was Packer targeted by Le Grand?


There's more at play here than people realize and Stride's murder was set up to oppose the Jews and try and pin the blame on them and the club
Hence why the GSG graffiti which was written to be ironic.

Stride as lured to her death by someone she thought she could trust.

Someone who disliked Jews, Socialists and anarchists...

If only there was someone who fits that profile...


RD

[The Rookie Detective]

Hi George,

The difference in the distances to Dr. Blackwell's between the two routes is only around 26-30 feet, so with regards to travel time (for estimating times, etc), there's really no difference to speak of. However, as you say, it would account for there being no indication that PC Smith saw PC Ayliffe, which would allow for PC Smith to be on his way down Berner Street at the time PC Lamb blows his whistle. However, I believe that when PC Smith arrived on the scene other police, from the south, had already arrived in response to PC Lamb's whistle, so that might point against it.

PC Smith's lack of any awareness of the events is ... odd. There was clearly a number of noisy incidents, men shouting, whistles, and so forth, that he seems blissfully unaware of. Someone has suggested the idea that maybe he had popped in somewhere for a cup of tea, and while there's no suggestion of that anywhere in the records, his apparent deafness does require some sort of explanation.

Acoustics can be strange, of course, and perhaps there was just something about the area that sort of acted to deaden the sounds from Berner Street if you were to the west on Commercial? It seems that PC Smith tends to be to the North West portion of his beat, both during the Commercial Street Run and perhaps when the whistle was blown, which is what is making me consider such a hypothesis (obviously there's no way for me to test it). Then again, maybe he heard the whistle but was unable to locate where it was coming from, other than it seemed to be at some distance (so he left it to other, closer, officers to respond to since he was unsure of even where to head?). Upon reaching the top of Berner Street, and seeing the crowd by the club, he then goes to investigate, perhaps at that point realizing where the whistle came from. But, not wanting to admit he didn't respond immediately, simply never mentions he heard it at all? Again, just running with ideas here since in the end, there's nothing to indicate he did, or was even suspected of doing, any such thing.

I think the souther route to the Police Station is the likely one too. As to whether or not Eagle knew where it was, I would think when PC Lamb told him to go there if he didn't know he would have said so and someone else would have been sent. While it is always possible he was delayed, again, similar to PC Smith's apparent lack of hearing, there really isn't anything recorded that points to him doing anything other than going directly there. But that doesn't mean it isn't possible, but I can't see anything in the records that would suggest any way to estimate by how long he mgiht have been delayed, and I don't think it's valid to just introduce a delay to make things fit a hypothesis. The hypothesis should be tested by the data, not the data adjusted to fit the hypothesis. That's why I just string the events together without introducing delays between them as I would expect the error in our estimates absorb such small delays. And, it's why I will tend to try ranges of parameters (i.e. Eagle Walks, Runs, Hurries), to ensure that the model is robust against our parameter choices. It's by testing variations in such configurations that makes me think PC Smith probably didn't patrol both Sander Street and Batty's Garden during the Berner Street leg of his patrol, and while I'm loath to guess just yet, if I had to drop one I would drop Sander Street as being patrolled during his northern patrol of Back Church Lane. I could also see him doing the western portion of Batty's Garden as well. I'm hoping to do some work, as outlined in an earlier post, to see if there might be a way to work those out. Although there are a number of assumptions I'll have to make, if it leads to something sensible then maybe that would count as some validation for those assumptions. If I'm wrong in my assumptions, then hopefully the measurements I take will demonstrate that by producing non-sensical results. To me, that's the sort of question I'm interested in answering, so really, I don't care which way it turns out as either way I have my answer! While one of them might give me something to work with, the other warns me against wasting my time. Both are wins for me as far as I'm concerned.

- Jeff

Has anyone ever considered whether PC Smith didn't arrive at 12.35am, but in fact arrived at 12.43am, invented Parcelman and cut Stride's throat himself?

He is never seen by any of the witnesses on his regular western approach along Faircloth Street, because based on his timings he should have walked past Stride AGAIN as he walked WEST past the junction with the murder site to the north of his location.

So where was he between claiming to see Stride at 12.35am and his eventual arrival around 1.07am?

Judging by the route, he would have passed west towards Backchurch Lane some time between 12.50-12.55am...but he didn't.

Smith should have been seen by either Spooner, Brown, the courting couple or Mortimer IF he arrived at 12.35am on his previous pass by the murder site.

What if Mortimer heard Smith passing by her door just 30 seconds AFTER he had just cut there throat?

Either way, Smith must have been slacking off somewhere, because he is never witnessed anywhere other than Berner Street and unless he was a on fixed point duty, that doesn't make sense.

So, he kills her and then walks north past Mortimers house at 12.45am just moments before Mortimer hears him pass by her door.
Smith then cuts west down Sanders St so that he is out of view of Mortimer. He then waits in Sanders St, checks himself over, disposes of the knife and waits until he hears the shouts of "police!"
He then walks through into backchurch lane and rejoins his route and arrives at the scene at 1.07am

Schwartz is then an actor hired to invent Bs Man and the assault...which nobody else saw or heard.

Lave has gone by 12.40am
Eagle has gone by 12.42am
Mortimer is at her door between 12.45-12.55am
Parcelman, BS man, Pipeman don't exist
Letchford is at her door at 12.50am
Brown sees the courting couple


Just another random hypothesis

Haha!


RD

[JeffHamm]

Don't forget, when in a timeline I say PC Lamb is contacted at say 1:06, that time is Leman Street Police Station time, not the time PC Lamb's beat clock, which is likely to read something different from the LSPS. So if the two clocks differ by 3 minutes, PC Lamb would have the time at 1:03 when the Leman Street Police Station reads 1:06.

- Jeff

[JeffHamm]

Hi George,

Hi Jeff,

Your calculations are, as always, commendable and I applaud your efforts, although I wonder whether quoting times down to seconds might be a little....ambitious?

Oh of course not! As you know, I think we can probably pin-point things to the very second! ha ha!

On a serious note, though, while nobody should think that I'm presenting these as exact times (I do try and always point out they are estimates), I calculate to the second to avoid accumulating round off error. In fact, the calculations are done to as high precision as possible, and I just round off to present the times after the entire time line is calculated. I suppose I could round each off to the nearest minute, but given these are just estimates, estimating the seconds to be 43 is no more precise than rounding to estimate the seconds to have always read 0.

On the "Ask Monty" thread I posed him the question: How important was it for the beat cop to know the time?
The reply from Monty was:
Very important. Some had their own pocket watches, and some used fixed clocks located commonly at churches but also factories, shops and monuments had such pieces.
Also the Section Sergeant would be conducting his patrols to ensure his men are where they should be, and if they needed assistance.
The Section Sergeant (who would be on constant patrol around his section) would commonly release the Fixed Point Officer at the allotted time.
If the Section Sergeant would know he would be unavailable to release the FP Officer then a reserve would be arranged or, in some cases, the Station Inspector would do the duty if he was available.

As a consequence I am inclined to rely on times testified to by police over newspaper reports and civilian estimates. It would be reasonable that the Section Sergeant would establish reference clock at the start of the beats, and I wonder if it was Lamb that was assigned to release Ayliffe at 1:00 and had only just done so when he saw Eagle.

Perhaps. I do think that the fact that PC Ayliffe has come off his fixed point indicates that Eagle and Kos find Lamb after 1 o'clock. Again, PC Lamb, who I believe does state he has no watch with him, would have had to use a local clock as his time reference. As such, there's no reason to believe his clock is in sync with the one at the Leman Police Station. On the other hand, I think you make a good argument that the one at the station is more likely to be aligned with GMT.

Personally, I'm not so concerned on the time being lined up with GMT, but rather just want to try and alighn (as best we can) all the witnesses and events to one common clock. So it doesn't matter to me if Dr. Blackwell's watch was off of GMT by more than the Leman Street Police Station clock, as all that does is introduce a constant (add or subtract some constant number of minutes and seconds to all times). When I standardized to Dr. Blackwell's watch, though, the times for things like Deimschutz's arrival were very similar to what we're getting. Not exactly the same, of course, but Dr. Blackwell Standard Time has Deimschutz arrive very close to 1 as well. I just looked at some old notes, and I have his arrival at 12:58:24 in BST. In that version, I had Dr. Blackwell arrive at 1:16:00, but as with the current version, I really should set the seconds to be :30 so as not to bias things to early in the minute, that would mean the "non-biased second arrival time" would be 12:58:54 in BST. In Leman Street Police Time, we've got Deimschutz's arrival at 12:59:48. So based on those, the difference between Dr. Blackwell's watch and the Leman Street Police Station is less than a minute, suggesting that Dr. Blackwell also kept his watch to GMT (which I don't think would be surprising).

IMO Inspector Reid and Phillips, who was the H Division Police Surgeon, would almost certainly have used well regulated pocket watches and be quoting accurate GMT times. To that end I have observed:

Reid testified that he was informed by telegraph at "Commercial- street Police-office" at 1:25 and arrived at Berner St at 1:45. Google maps shows a 21 minute walk, so this is consistent and indicates that he walked rather than ran. He also testified that Phillips was already there when he arrived.

Well, if Eagle arrives at the station at 1:10ish, that would mean that the telegraph was sent 15 minutes later. Given Eagle would be giving a statement first, to provide the details of what happened, where, and so forth, then 15 minutes is probably reasonable.

Phillips testified that:
I live at No. 2, Spital-square, and am surgeon of the H Division of police. I was called on Sunday morning last at twenty past one to Leman-street Police-station, and was sent on to Berner-street, to a yard at the side of what proved to be a club-house. I found Inspector Pinhorn and Acting-Superintendent West in possession of a body, which had already been seen by Dr. Blackwell, who had arrived some time before me.

Google maps shows a 17 minute walk from Phillips home to LSPS, plus the time to walk to the Yard (6-7 minutes?). If he arrived at around 1:43-1:44, that would be consistent with Reid's testimony, and also indicate that Phillips was walking, not running. However, it would have taken a constable around 17 minutes to walk (can we assume this PC ran when Reid and Phillips did not?) from LSPS to Phillip's home to call him, meaning the constable left LSPS around 1:03, but this is not consistent with your contention that Lamb despatched Eagle at 1:06, or the newspaper report that LSPS were notified at 1:10.

Well, as you were concerned that Dr. Blackwell's watch may have been out of sync with GMT, perhaps that's the case with Dr. Phillip's time piece? Or perhaps a constable was sent on bicycle or horse, basically some quicker mode of transport. But most likely it was simply that a constable was simply sent off at a running pace, which would half the time, consistent with a departure time around 1:10 rather than 1:03. The more dignified Doctors and Inspectors might be fine to walk, but the constable sent to do their bidding must run after all.

I'm sure that Frank and yourself will work on the times, and calculate the walking paces set by Phillips and the PC sent to call him. However, might I suggest that we are in the area of too many imponderables? How fast did Eagle get to LSPS, how long did it take to inform Pinhorn and dispatch the PC to Phillips, how long for the PC to reach Phillip's home, how long for Phillips to learn what had happened, gather his bag, coat and hat and walk to LSPS, be briefed and walk to the Yard?

I suspect, no matter what one does, there will come a point where something just won't fit. These are all just estimations after all, and for much of it we're having to estimate an estimate! When Witness says they waited X minutes between event A and Event B, and we estimate times for A and B, then calculate the A-B interval, and find it "corresponds well" with Witness's X minute estimate - well, that's what we're doing, estimating an estimate! Clearly, somewhere, either our estimate, or the witnesses estimate, will be wrong, and that information will not fit in. However, if we can get the vast majority of events lined up, with times that look good when viewed as a whole rather than viewed individually, then that's a pretty good indication that what we have is pretty close.

I am yet to be persuaded that the testimony of both Lamb and Smith is inaccurate to the order of around 6-7 minutes, preferring to accept their times over Blackwell's pocket watch. I see as a clue to that watch being out of sync, the statement recorded by most publications that Johnson was called "a few minutes after one", where as Blackwell reported being called at 1:10.

Best regards, George

We know PC Lamb says he didn't have a watch, and there's nothing to indicate that PC Smith had one either. So both of them have to time stamp to some clock on their beat. And that means their times are subject to the whims of the clocks of London. They can't be expected to keep accurate track of GMT time over their shift if they only know that at the start of their shift!

- Jeff

[JeffHamm]

Hi Jeff,

I quite agree that Smith seemed totally unaware that anything had happened. While we can't assume that Eagle and Koze were shouting, the question arises as to why Smith didn't hear Lamb's whistle. That would indicate to me that Smith was very close to the gateway when Lamb used his whistle, that Ayliffe had travelled to the surgery via Hampshire Ct, and Eagle used the southern route to Leman St. I haven't been able to find out how long Eagle had been in the area, or whether he actually knew the location of the P.S.. Might he have spent some time finding the building?

Best regards, George

Hi George,

The difference in the distances to Dr. Blackwell's between the two routes is only around 26-30 feet, so with regards to travel time (for estimating times, etc), there's really no difference to speak of. However, as you say, it would account for there being no indication that PC Smith saw PC Ayliffe, which would allow for PC Smith to be on his way down Berner Street at the time PC Lamb blows his whistle. However, I believe that when PC Smith arrived on the scene other police, from the south, had already arrived in response to PC Lamb's whistle, so that might point against it.

PC Smith's lack of any awareness of the events is ... odd. There was clearly a number of noisy incidents, men shouting, whistles, and so forth, that he seems blissfully unaware of. Someone has suggested the idea that maybe he had popped in somewhere for a cup of tea, and while there's no suggestion of that anywhere in the records, his apparent deafness does require some sort of explanation.

Acoustics can be strange, of course, and perhaps there was just something about the area that sort of acted to deaden the sounds from Berner Street if you were to the west on Commercial? It seems that PC Smith tends to be to the North West portion of his beat, both during the Commercial Street Run and perhaps when the whistle was blown, which is what is making me consider such a hypothesis (obviously there's no way for me to test it). Then again, maybe he heard the whistle but was unable to locate where it was coming from, other than it seemed to be at some distance (so he left it to other, closer, officers to respond to since he was unsure of even where to head?). Upon reaching the top of Berner Street, and seeing the crowd by the club, he then goes to investigate, perhaps at that point realizing where the whistle came from. But, not wanting to admit he didn't respond immediately, simply never mentions he heard it at all? Again, just running with ideas here since in the end, there's nothing to indicate he did, or was even suspected of doing, any such thing.

I think the souther route to the Police Station is the likely one too. As to whether or not Eagle knew where it was, I would think when PC Lamb told him to go there if he didn't know he would have said so and someone else would have been sent. While it is always possible he was delayed, again, similar to PC Smith's apparent lack of hearing, there really isn't anything recorded that points to him doing anything other than going directly there. But that doesn't mean it isn't possible, but I can't see anything in the records that would suggest any way to estimate by how long he mgiht have been delayed, and I don't think it's valid to just introduce a delay to make things fit a hypothesis. The hypothesis should be tested by the data, not the data adjusted to fit the hypothesis. That's why I just string the events together without introducing delays between them as I would expect the error in our estimates absorb such small delays. And, it's why I will tend to try ranges of parameters (i.e. Eagle Walks, Runs, Hurries), to ensure that the model is robust against our parameter choices. It's by testing variations in such configurations that makes me think PC Smith probably didn't patrol both Sander Street and Batty's Garden during the Berner Street leg of his patrol, and while I'm loath to guess just yet, if I had to drop one I would drop Sander Street as being patrolled during his northern patrol of Back Church Lane. I could also see him doing the western portion of Batty's Garden as well. I'm hoping to do some work, as outlined in an earlier post, to see if there might be a way to work those out. Although there are a number of assumptions I'll have to make, if it leads to something sensible then maybe that would count as some validation for those assumptions. If I'm wrong in my assumptions, then hopefully the measurements I take will demonstrate that by producing non-sensical results. To me, that's the sort of question I'm interested in answering, so really, I don't care which way it turns out as either way I have my answer! While one of them might give me something to work with, the other warns me against wasting my time. Both are wins for me as far as I'm concerned.

- Jeff

[FrankO]

Hi Frank,

Just going through your timeline, and there's not a huge difference.

Here's been my latest attempt, testing out the updated workbook and I've noted the times you listed above and the differences between the models:
...

I'm using 2.7 mph for PC Smith's patrol speed as you are. I speed him up to 3.1 when heading to the crowd from the top of Commercial.
In your post above you say you have him do that last portion at 1.42 mph, but I assume that's a typo (do you mean 3.42 or 4.42 maybe?).

Anyway, I think things are looking good, and the bulk of difference between our estimates for Fanny's vigil can be explained easily enough due to different measurements of the patrol distance.

Hi Jeff,

Thanks for laying down the differences between our models. It's good to see that they are quite close, after all. Indeed, you're correct: I did make a typo as to the speed of the last portion. I wrote 1.42, but it should be 3.42 (which corresponds with 5.5 kmph), but your 3.1 mph works fine, too. The main difference between the two models is, as you suggest, caused by the fact that Smith patrols Sander Street (and Batty's Gardens) before passing Fanny's house, while in my model he does that after he passes her house.

Cheers,
Frank

[GBinOz]

PC Smith finds out about the incident when he arrives at the scene, which occurs after PC Lamb has been there and sent PC Ayliffe off to fetch the doctor and Eagle to inform the Leman Police Station. Prior to that he appears to have had no knowledge anything was up. He didn't hear the calls for police along Fairclough, although both Brown and Marshall confirm the men along Fairclough were calling out. Presumably Eagle and Kosebrodski (sp?) were calling out when heading north to Commercial where they find PC Lamb, but if so then PC Smith seems to have been out of ear shot at that time (probably placing him to the west end of his beat near Gower).

Hi Jeff,

I quite agree that Smith seemed totally unaware that anything had happened. While we can't assume that Eagle and Koze were shouting, the question arises as to why Smith didn't hear Lamb's whistle. That would indicate to me that Smith was very close to the gateway when Lamb used his whistle, that Ayliffe had travelled to the surgery via Hampshire Ct, and Eagle used the southern route to Leman St. I haven't been able to find out how long Eagle had been in the area, or whether he actually knew the location of the P.S.. Might he have spent some time finding the building?

Best regards, George

[GBinOz]

Hi Jeff,

Your calculations are, as always, commendable and I applaud your efforts, although I wonder whether quoting times down to seconds might be a little....ambitious?

On the "Ask Monty" thread I posed him the question: How important was it for the beat cop to know the time?
The reply from Monty was:
Very important. Some had their own pocket watches, and some used fixed clocks located commonly at churches but also factories, shops and monuments had such pieces.
Also the Section Sergeant would be conducting his patrols to ensure his men are where they should be, and if they needed assistance.
The Section Sergeant (who would be on constant patrol around his section) would commonly release the Fixed Point Officer at the allotted time.
If the Section Sergeant would know he would be unavailable to release the FP Officer then a reserve would be arranged or, in some cases, the Station Inspector would do the duty if he was available.

As a consequence I am inclined to rely on times testified to by police over newspaper reports and civilian estimates. It would be reasonable that the Section Sergeant would establish reference clock at the start of the beats, and I wonder if it was Lamb that was assigned to release Ayliffe at 1:00 and had only just done so when he saw Eagle.

IMO Inspector Reid and Phillips, who was the H Division Police Surgeon, would almost certainly have used well regulated pocket watches and be quoting accurate GMT times. To that end I have observed:

Reid testified that he was informed by telegraph at "Commercial- street Police-office" at 1:25 and arrived at Berner St at 1:45. Google maps shows a 21 minute walk, so this is consistent and indicates that he walked rather than ran. He also testified that Phillips was already there when he arrived.

Phillips testified that:
I live at No. 2, Spital-square, and am surgeon of the H Division of police. I was called on Sunday morning last at twenty past one to Leman-street Police-station, and was sent on to Berner-street, to a yard at the side of what proved to be a club-house. I found Inspector Pinhorn and Acting-Superintendent West in possession of a body, which had already been seen by Dr. Blackwell, who had arrived some time before me.

Google maps shows a 17 minute walk from Phillips home to LSPS, plus the time to walk to the Yard (6-7 minutes?). If he arrived at around 1:43-1:44, that would be consistent with Reid's testimony, and also indicate that Phillips was walking, not running. However, it would have taken a constable around 17 minutes to walk (can we assume this PC ran when Reid and Phillips did not?) from LSPS to Phillip's home to call him, meaning the constable left LSPS around 1:03, but this is not consistent with your contention that Lamb despatched Eagle at 1:06, or the newspaper report that LSPS were notified at 1:10.

I'm sure that Frank and yourself will work on the times, and calculate the walking paces set by Phillips and the PC sent to call him. However, might I suggest that we are in the area of too many imponderables? How fast did Eagle get to LSPS, how long did it take to inform Pinhorn and dispatch the PC to Phillips, how long for the PC to reach Phillip's home, how long for Phillips to learn what had happened, gather his bag, coat and hat and walk to LSPS, be briefed and walk to the Yard?

I am yet to be persuaded that the testimony of both Lamb and Smith is inaccurate to the order of around 6-7 minutes, preferring to accept their times over Blackwell's pocket watch. I see as a clue to that watch being out of sync, the statement recorded by most publications that Johnson was called "a few minutes after one", where as Blackwell reported being called at 1:10.

Best regards, George

[JeffHamm]

Beyond exceptional Jeff


Your mind is astoundingly brilliant to be able to work to these fine margins; I am in awe of your persistence and perseverance.


One thing that I would ask is; if Smith's beat worked on a particular circuit that took 25 - 30 minutes to complete; where would that have placed Smith BETWEEN him observing Stride and Parcelman, to the point he is informed of the incident and then comes from the north via Commerical Road into Berner Street?


Surely there must have been some point BETWEEN his observing Stride; to the moment he is told of an incident, when he was passing by the junction of Faircloth St and Berner Street heading West towards Backchurch Lane.

If that's the case, then why didn't anyone see him and why did he not mention it in his witness testimony?


He must have passed the junction where Faircloth St intesects with Berner Street when he was heading west along Faircloth Street.

And yet, Brown, Mortimer, Eagle, Lave, Spooner, Miss Letchford, Goldstein, Schwartz, the other couple, Packer etc...do not mention SEEING Smith.

Mortimer probably hears him passing by, but apart from that we have nothing to corroborate that Smith was ever there at the times he said he was.

And of course...

after Mortimer hears him passing (allegedly), and he heads north towards Commercial Road, then why doesn't Pc Smith see BS man walking toward him, or Schwartz either?

There is something wrong with this entire scenario

RD

Hi RD,

Thanks. In the end it really is just working out distances and travel at different speeds and so forth, so nothing all that complicated, although like anything, if you try to rush it it's easy to make some simple mistakes.

PC Smith finds out about the incident when he arrives at the scene, which occurs after PC Lamb has been there and sent PC Ayliffe off to fetch the doctor and Eagle to inform the Leman Police Station. Prior to that he appears to have had no knowledge anything was up. He didn't hear the calls for police along Fairclough, although both Brown and Marshall confirm the men along Fairclough were calling out. Presumably Eagle and Kosebrodski (sp?) were calling out when heading north to Commercial where they find PC Lamb, but if so then PC Smith seems to have been out of ear shot at that time (probably placing him to the west end of his beat near Gower).

Miss Letchford, to my knowledge, never gave a statement. Her brother says she went to the doorstep, but I don't think she herself every confirms that, so what she may or may not have seen, or when, or what she even did, isn't very clear.

Brown wouldn't have seen PC Smith as Brown goes for his supper and returns somewhere around 12:45, and PC Smith isn't at Fairclough and Berner at that time.

Spooner, while he was on Fairclough when the runners find him, need not have seen PC Smith as again, we can't really be sure when Spooner arrived at Fairclough. Also, seeing a PC long before the runners come along is probably not something he would have taken much notice of even if he was there because at that time it was just a typical evening and he's chatting with his lady friend, not scanning for police.

Using the estimated times for PC Smiths arrival at the scene, and the start of the Fairclough run, there's about 6m 23 seconds between those. So, if we backtrack his location from the crime scene by 6m 37 s at a patrol speed of 2.9 mph (not including Sander Street or Batty's Gardens as he skips those coming down Berner street to the scene), then he would already be heading north on Back Church Lane by the time the runner's head out towards Fairclough. If, he patrols Sander Street during his northern pass, he would be even further north on Back Church Lane. Basically, the runners don't see him because he would be in a location they couldn't see.

In my view, these are the very types of questions that make doing these sorts of estimations valuable. It allows us to get a reasonable idea of where the PC's were at critical times. We see the same type of thing with Nichols' murder in Buck's Row, where PC Neil appears to be in a northern section of his beat at the time Cross/Lechmere and Paul head out looking for the police so they wouldn't have seen him (nor would he have seen them), which is why they end up reporting what the found to PC Mizen, and how PC Neil finds Polly only a few minutes later.

- Jeff

[The Rookie Detective]

Following up on the above. I've done a few measurements of the Berner Street patrol. Basically, I measure just up and down Berner Street on both sides. And I measure a patrol of Sander Street, and of Batty's Gardens. On the notion that when PC Smith says he was last in Berner Street between 12:30 and 12:35 indicates that it required him 5 minutes for that portion of his beat, I calculated the speed of his patrol including both Sander and Batty's, or just one or the other. If I include both, his patrol speed seems to quick (4.12 mph using my current measurements). If I only include Sander Street, I get 2.9 mph, and if I only include Batty's Gardens, I get 3.2 mph (a bit quick for a patrol but in the right ball park, particularly as 5m 36s for his patrol would give 2.9 as well, but would still be 3.7 mph if I include both - I just tweaked the time to see what would result in roughly the same speed here to see if the time difference would have to be unreasonably different - yes, I know, a subjective call; as a comparison, to do the same for including everything in order to get the patrol speed to 2.9 mph I would have to increase the time to 7m 6s).

I've measured Berner Street alone at 849, that's the combination of both directions plus crossing the street at Fairclough; Sander Street at 412 feet, again both directions and crossing to the other side at Back Church Lane; and Batty's Garden at 559 ft, both directions and crossing at Back Church Lane. These are single measurements, and probably should be done a few times to get a more stable estimate, but while that will fine tune things a wee bit, we're not going to see any difference that impacts what I'm thinking.

Now, there are a few things that come to mind. First of all, the problem could be that 5 minutes bit. I'm treating PC Smith's statement of being in the Berner Street portion of his beat between 12:30 and 12:35 as telling us that portion takes him about 5 minutes to complete (so he was in that area for 5 minutes). However, it is also possible he is just indicating a "point" in time, and he was in that area somewhere between 12:30 and 12:35 and the range just indicates some degree of uncertainty.

If we stick with the notion that he's referring to the duration of his patrol of Berner Street as taking 5 minutes, then it looks to me like he can't do both Sander Street and Batty's Garden in that portion of his patrol. It is quite possible, for example, that he does Sander Street while coming north on Back Church Lane, so by the time he's coming down Berner Street he just goes past Sander Street as he had just done it. While one could suggest the same for Batty's Garden, I think he does mention it specifically, so it seems likely that it was included.

There is one other idea that just occurred to me. Looking at the Batty's Garden portion, it's possible he does the west leg of it while coming up Back Church Lane, and when he's in the Berner Street portion, he just goes into the yard area and not all the way over to Back Church Lane again (which reduces it to 202 feet). That still results in a patrol speed of 3.3 mph if I include Sander Street and the "partial Batty's Garden" at 5 minutes, but just under 3.0 mph (2.97 mph) at 5m 36s.

I think there is a way to try and narrow down a few of these possibilities. First, remeasure his entire beat (or at least what we think it is) and work out his overall patrol speed (we know it requires him between 25 and 30 minutes to complete, so we can work out his range of speeds, and also his mid-point speed at 27.5 mph). Then, we compare the various possibilities with the above to see which ones produce speeds, or times, that correspond well with his overall patrol speed. Of course, all of this does hinge on his 30-35 minutes as being an indicator of the duration of that portion of his beat and not an uncertain point reference in time. Mind you, to cover that possibility, we could just do these calculations using his overall patrol speed and look at the different configurations (both, one or the other, where Batty's Street might be full or partial; there's 5 configurations of distances to add to the Berner Street portion; Sander + Full Batty; Sander + Partial Batty; Sander + 0 Batty; 0 Sander + Full Batty; 0 Sander + Partial Batty, and we can use his patrol speed to look at how each of those would influence Fanny's vigil window, and then try and decide which result appears to best match with other information.

Anyway, this is becoming quite an interesting puzzle, but one I think that can be solved to some extent. I suspect there will be a few possibilities that work, but hopefully we can relegate some to the "unlikely" pile. But maybe that is hoping too much?

- Jeff

Beyond exceptional Jeff


Your mind is astoundingly brilliant to be able to work to these fine margins; I am in awe of your persistence and perseverance.


One thing that I would ask is; if Smith's beat worked on a particular circuit that took 25 - 30 minutes to complete; where would that have placed Smith BETWEEN him observing Stride and Parcelman, to the point he is informed of the incident and then comes from the north via Commerical Road into Berner Street?


Surely there must have been some point BETWEEN his observing Stride; to the moment he is told of an incident, when he was passing by the junction of Faircloth St and Berner Street heading West towards Backchurch Lane.

If that's the case, then why didn't anyone see him and why did he not mention it in his witness testimony?


He must have passed the junction where Faircloth St intesects with Berner Street when he was heading west along Faircloth Street.

And yet, Brown, Mortimer, Eagle, Lave, Spooner, Miss Letchford, Goldstein, Schwartz, the other couple, Packer etc...do not mention SEEING Smith.

Mortimer probably hears him passing by, but apart from that we have nothing to corroborate that Smith was ever there at the times he said he was.


And of course...


after Mortimer hears him passing (allegedly), and he heads north towards Commercial Road, then why doesn't Pc Smith see BS man walking toward him, or Schwartz either?


There is something wrong with this entire scenario




RD

[JeffHamm]

Following up on the above. I've done a few measurements of the Berner Street patrol. Basically, I measure just up and down Berner Street on both sides. And I measure a patrol of Sander Street, and of Batty's Gardens. On the notion that when PC Smith says he was last in Berner Street between 12:30 and 12:35 indicates that it required him 5 minutes for that portion of his beat, I calculated the speed of his patrol including both Sander and Batty's, or just one or the other. If I include both, his patrol speed seems to quick (4.12 mph using my current measurements). If I only include Sander Street, I get 2.9 mph, and if I only include Batty's Gardens, I get 3.2 mph (a bit quick for a patrol but in the right ball park, particularly as 5m 36s for his patrol would give 2.9 as well, but would still be 3.7 mph if I include both - I just tweaked the time to see what would result in roughly the same speed here to see if the time difference would have to be unreasonably different - yes, I know, a subjective call; as a comparison, to do the same for including everything in order to get the patrol speed to 2.9 mph I would have to increase the time to 7m 6s).

I've measured Berner Street alone at 849, that's the combination of both directions plus crossing the street at Fairclough; Sander Street at 412 feet, again both directions and crossing to the other side at Back Church Lane; and Batty's Garden at 559 ft, both directions and crossing at Back Church Lane. These are single measurements, and probably should be done a few times to get a more stable estimate, but while that will fine tune things a wee bit, we're not going to see any difference that impacts what I'm thinking.

Now, there are a few things that come to mind. First of all, the problem could be that 5 minutes bit. I'm treating PC Smith's statement of being in the Berner Street portion of his beat between 12:30 and 12:35 as telling us that portion takes him about 5 minutes to complete (so he was in that area for 5 minutes). However, it is also possible he is just indicating a "point" in time, and he was in that area somewhere between 12:30 and 12:35 and the range just indicates some degree of uncertainty.

If we stick with the notion that he's referring to the duration of his patrol of Berner Street as taking 5 minutes, then it looks to me like he can't do both Sander Street and Batty's Garden in that portion of his patrol. It is quite possible, for example, that he does Sander Street while coming north on Back Church Lane, so by the time he's coming down Berner Street he just goes past Sander Street as he had just done it. While one could suggest the same for Batty's Garden, I think he does mention it specifically, so it seems likely that it was included.

There is one other idea that just occurred to me. Looking at the Batty's Garden portion, it's possible he does the west leg of it while coming up Back Church Lane, and when he's in the Berner Street portion, he just goes into the yard area and not all the way over to Back Church Lane again (which reduces it to 202 feet). That still results in a patrol speed of 3.3 mph if I include Sander Street and the "partial Batty's Garden" at 5 minutes, but just under 3.0 mph (2.97 mph) at 5m 36s.

I think there is a way to try and narrow down a few of these possibilities. First, remeasure his entire beat (or at least what we think it is) and work out his overall patrol speed (we know it requires him between 25 and 30 minutes to complete, so we can work out his range of speeds, and also his mid-point speed at 27.5 mph). Then, we compare the various possibilities with the above to see which ones produce speeds, or times, that correspond well with his overall patrol speed. Of course, all of this does hinge on his 30-35 minutes as being an indicator of the duration of that portion of his beat and not an uncertain point reference in time. Mind you, to cover that possibility, we could just do these calculations using his overall patrol speed and look at the different configurations (both, one or the other, where Batty's Street might be full or partial; there's 5 configurations of distances to add to the Berner Street portion; Sander + Full Batty; Sander + Partial Batty; Sander + 0 Batty; 0 Sander + Full Batty; 0 Sander + Partial Batty, and we can use his patrol speed to look at how each of those would influence Fanny's vigil window, and then try and decide which result appears to best match with other information.

Anyway, this is becoming quite an interesting puzzle, but one I think that can be solved to some extent. I suspect there will be a few possibilities that work, but hopefully we can relegate some to the "unlikely" pile. But maybe that is hoping too much?

- Jeff

[JeffHamm]

Hi Frank,

Just going through your timeline, and there's not a huge difference.

Here's been my latest attempt, testing out the updated workbook and I've noted the times you listed above and the differences between the models:

Time ...... Event
12:39:24 PC Smith Last at Berner ............................ - 12:39:57 (diff 33 seconds)
12:42:27 PC Smith Passes Fanny's ............................ - 12:42:15 (diff -12 seconds)
12:44:27 Fanny Emerges ......................................... - 12:47:44 (diff 3m 17seconds)
12:44:27 PC Smith Exits Berner
12:52:27 Fanny Goes Inside .................................... - 12:55:44 (diff 3m 17seconds)
12:58:45 Diemschutz Enters Berner Street
12:59:48 Diemschutz Arrival
1:01:38 Fairclough Run Starts
1:03:26 Eagle heads North to find Police/Fairclough runners return/Spooner's arrival
1:04:38 PC Lamb and PC Ayliffe Alerted
1:05:50 Eagle departs to Station/PC Lamb and Ayliffe's Arrival - 1:05:50 diff (0: same benchmark used)
1:05:50 PC Ayliffe heads for doctor ...................................... - 1:06:00 (diff 10 seconds)
1:06:54 PC Ayliffe (426H) Exits Berner
1:08:15 PC Smith Arrives .................................................. . - 1:08:39 (diff 24 seconds)
1:10:30 Eagle Arrives at Leman Street Police Station


I didn't add any time between things like PC Lamb arriving and sending off Eagle and PC Ayliffe to the Police Station and to fetch the doctor, while I see you included a 10 second delay (which is not at all unreasonable, I've generally just strung things together on the basis that such tiny delays are likely to get absorbed in the error margins of the estimations, but that's not to say that is the only way to do it.

On the whole, PC Smith arrives at pretty much the same time in both our versions, which is good because the differences are in the details of his Berner Street Patrol, but with regards to his total patrol time, it doesn't matter if he goes down the east or west side first and the comes back up the other, but that direction will impact upon events within Berner Street itself.

Curiously, both versions have PC Smith pass Fanny's house at about the same time (there's only 12 seconds between our estimates, with yours being slightly earlier). I don't think I included a patrol of Batty's Garden though, just Sander Street, and that detail would influence things (it would shift my time later by the duration of that additional patrol section, which you list as 2m 20s).

The largest difference I can see is about a 3m 17 s difference in when Fanny comes out and goes back inside, with you having the vigil slightly later.
However, 2m and 20s of that difference can be attributed to my omitting Batty's Gardens in the above calculations while you included it (which I admit is more precise). If I adjust my time to include that portion, then we really only have about a 57s difference with respect to the start and end times of Fanny's vigil between our calculations.

I'm using 2.7 mph for PC Smith's patrol speed as you are. I speed him up to 3.1 when heading to the crowd from the top of Commercial.
In your post above you say you have him do that last portion at 1.42 mph, but I assume that's a typo (do you mean 3.42 or 4.42 maybe?).

Anyway, I think things are looking good, and the bulk of difference between our estimates for Fanny's vigil can be explained easily enough due to different measurements of the patrol distance.

- Jeff