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Berner Street: No Plot, No Mystery

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  • Michael W Richards
    replied
    Originally posted by Herlock Sholmes View Post

    1. We don’t know when she was last on her doorstep before she came onto her doorstep after hearing the footsteps.

    2. We don’t know what time she came onto her doorstep after hearing the footsteps.

    3. We don’t know how long she was on her doorstep for.

    4. Great witness. And you use her to dismiss Schwartz and Diemschitz.

    5. If Diemschitz returned earlier than she said why didn’t she see him?

    6. She heard a cart at around 1.00. Clearly this was Diemschitz unless someone was passing with a mobile phone with a horse and cart on cobbles ringtone?

    I really wish the only person who constantly challenges my every post...you...would have some decent argument to make. Always disappointed in that regard though.

    1. We know one period when she was at her door, and its right up to the time Louis says he arrived. She was at her door a few minutes saw Goldstein at around 12:55, then at 1 went in. She didnt see or hear Louis or a cart at 1am. A sound is not a visual id. But you still espouse he invisibly, I imagine, sneaks past Fanny AND the young couple. Remarkable fella that anarchist.
    2. Again, you make a stand on miniscule points that mean nothing and ignore the most salient ones.
    3. See answer 1....we do, she told us in her statement.
    4. Unbiased, clear view of the street and of the gated entrance, at her door, and inside, during those most critical 30 minutes,.. saw and validated the young couple that Brown ends up seeing, her claimed location is validated at 12:55 when she sees Goldstein and he later admits it was him, and most relevantly....she did NOT see any cart and horse just before and up to 1am. Louis would have been entering the street from the far end ri9ght about when she saw Goldstein. So yeah, she has value.

    Now your virtuous, accurately timed witnesses;

    No one saw Eagle return to the club
    No one saw Louis return to the club
    Lave didnt see Eagle when they occupied the same space at the same time.
    Eagle couldnt be sure Liz wasnt lying there at 12:40
    Louis's stated arrival time is directly contradicted by 3 witnesses, and the timing Lamb gave for his sighting of Eagle.
    Louis quite simply could not have arrived at the same time Lamb and Eagle return to the club, why you dont understand that is a head shaker. You cant have someone arrive at 1, and at the same time have a search party for police, initiated by the discovery, end up arriving at the same time Louis first arrives. Why would anyone claim that makes sense...but you did and do.

    To say you dont get it falls so short of the truth, youve had the same errors you repetitively state pointed out to you over and over and yet still repeat them.

    I dont mind debate, I do mind when the least capable person to engage in one wants to engage in it with me. Because I can argue the evidence, just not whats concocted by you. You defy reason, one wonders if its intentional. I hope for your sake it is.

    I believe its time now for you to tell me that the entire UK and most of the free world agrees with you, not me...or did I steal your thunder?

    When you can tell time, both read and comprehend, and understand what logic, reason and precedents are, then we can take this up again. But save this repetitive nonsense please.
    Last edited by Michael W Richards; 05-02-2024, 07:47 PM.

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  • FrankO
    replied
    Originally posted by GBinOz View Post

    Hi Frank,

    The sequence that suggests to me that Lamb mistook Johnson for Blackwell is:

    Mr. Edward Johnson:​ [Coroner] Did you undo the dress? - The dress was not undone when I came. I undid it to see if the chest was warm. The outer gates were closed shortly after I came.

    Constable Henry Lamb​: Dr. Blackwell was the first doctor to arrive; he came ten or twelve minutes after myself, but I had no watch with me.
    [Coroner] Did any one of the crowd say whether the body had been touched before your arrival? - No. Dr. Blackwell examined the body and its surroundings. Dr. Phillips came ten minutes later. Inspector Pinhorn arrived directly after Dr. Blackwell. When I blew my whistle other constables came, and I had the entrance of the yard closed. This was while Dr. Blackwell was looking at the body. Before that the doors were wide open.

    Mr. Frederick William Blackwell​:
    Dr. Phillips came about twenty minutes to half an hour after my arrival.
    The double doors of the yard were closed when I arrived, so that the previous witness must have made a mistake on that point.

    Lamb testified that he closed the gates after Blackwell arrived, but Blackwell testified specifically that Lamb was mistaken on this point, and Johnson corroborates that opinion by testifying that the gates were closed after he arrived. This would mean that Lamb testified that Johnson (mistaken for Blackwell) arrived 10-12 minutes after he did, which would coincide with Blackwell testifying that he arrived at 1:16, and Johnson testifying that he arrived 3-4 minutes before Blackwell. This would fit with Lamb's testimony of seeing Eagle at 1:00, or shortly before, but complicates the arrival of Pinhorn directly after Johnson (mistaken for Blackwell). It also creates conflict with Lamb's estimate of Phillips arriving 10 minutes after Johnson (mistaken for Blackwell) and Blackwell's estimate that Phillips arrived 20-30 minutes after he did, but of course that conflict would not be resolved by the 3-4 minute difference in arrival times of Johnson and Blackwell.

    Best regards,
    George
    ​​​
    Hi George,

    As I said to you in a previous post: it may have been that Lamb mistook Johnston for Blackwell, but, then again, it may not.

    I can certainly follow your interpretation, and you may well be right, but it would depend on how shortly “shortly” really was in Johnston’s “The outer gates were closed shortly after I came.

    Just look at Spooner’s testimony. He is quoted as having stated: “When Police-constable Lamb came I helped him to close the gates of the yard, and I left through the club.

    If we’d only have this phrase, then we might believe Spooner helped Lamb close the gates right after Lamb arrived and that he immediately left after helping to close the gates. But we know that it didn’t happen like that, as the phrase above was followed by some questions:
    Inspector Reid: I believe that was after you had given your name and address to the police? - Yes.
    And had been searched? - Yes.
    And examined by Dr. Phillips? - Yes.”

    Then, besides Blackwell’s quote above, we have this version:
    The CORONER. - Could you see there was a woman there when you went in?
    Witness. - Yes. The doors were closed when I arrived.

    This version seems to suggest (but at least could be interpreted like that) that the doors were closed when he was arriving/were closed behind him, just after he got in. Which would correspond with what Lamb stated: that he had the gates closed while the examination by Blackwell was going on.

    Also, the previous witness who said something about the gates being closed, was Spooner, not Lamb. And as Spooner’s testimony could be understood as if he helped closed the gates soon after Lamb’s arrival, Blackwell could well have meant that they weren’t closed until he arrived and that this is why he “that the previous witness must have made a mistake on that point.”

    Then, as you suggest, Pinhorn’s arrival between Johnston and Blackwell would mean that the station clock and Blackwell’s watch were out of sync. Not by much, but out of sync nonetheless and they wouldn’t if we’d assume Pinhorn arrived a minute or so after Blackwell.

    The thing that makes me lean further towards Lamb being right rather than wrong when he called the first doctor to arrive “Blackwell”, is that I think it’s quite unlikely that:
    • PC 426H wouldn’t have understood that it was Blackwell’s assistant who was coming with him and that the doctor himself would come as soon as he was clothed;
    • Lamb wouldn’t have noticed/understood that Johnston handed the case over to Blackwell as soon as the latter arrived, just as Johnston stated he did;
    • Lamb mentioned the arrival of doctor Phillips, but would not mention the man who arrived between Johnston (who he mistook to be Blackwell) and dr. Phillips, who, quite probably, did a more thorough examination than Johnston. Who did he think that man would have been?
    Plus, Lamb also mentioned that the doctor examined the walls, and Blackwell stated:
    The CORONER. - Was there any blood on the side of the house, or splashes on the wall?
    Witness. - No. It was very dark at the time, and I only examined it by the policeman's lamp.

    All the best,
    Frank

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  • JeffHamm
    replied
    Originally posted by FrankO View Post
    Hi Jeff,

    What we also see is that your calculations of Lamb's arrival in the yard go very well with Blackwell's timing, as indirectly referenced by Lamb himself when he stated: "Dr. Blackwell was the first doctor to arrive, and he did so in ten or twelve minutes after my arrival. I had no watch with me, and so I only guess the time.​"

    If one, however, thinks that Lamb actually mistook Johnston for Blackwell, then Lamb would have arrived in the yard between 1:00 and 1:03 - on Blackwell's watch that is. So, in that case, Blackwell's watch and the clock at the police station were out of sync by a maximum of some 6 minutes (and a minimum of 1 minute).

    All the best,
    Frank
    Good point Frank. And the correspondence between the estimations of PC Lamb's arrival and his estimation of how long it took for Dr. Blackwell's arrival is another indication that I think what we're putting together here is a reasonable description of these events. A "core sequence" if you will. While nobody is suggesting we have the times exactly correct, we don't need that level of precision; we're not conducting a physics experiment after all.

    Adopting a similar approach, I think we can then connect to this the sequence of events that lead to Dr. Blackwell's arrival, and as you suggest, work out the range of clock differences between the police station and his watch. I have little doubt that those values would produce a range of values that are entirely unsurprising.

    Having done this before but fixing the times to Dr. Blackwell's watch (which the simulations are based upon), it should be possible to tie in other events. For example, Brown hears the runners on Fairclough, and estimated a 15 minute duration from the time he picked up his supper at the shop. The return trip for the Fairclough runners takes about 2 minutes (slightly less, but I'll call it 2 here). So he would have heard them roughly 1 minute after they departed (1:01:38 in the Eagle "hurries" version), and we can then work backwards from that estimated time to place him at the corner of Berner and Fairclough, where he sees a woman he later identifies as Stride. Taking his 15 estimate as stated that would mean at 12:46:38. If we consider how well people estimate durations, though, then we have a range of durations from 6m 13s to as long as 37m 56s, with an average of 12m 33s! (Like I said, in general people are rubbish at this). So if we go with the average, that would place him there around 12:49. So if he did see Stride, she was still alive at that point. Although Fanny doesn't mention seeing Brown, Brown never enters Berner Street so she may simply have not noticed him during the brief period he exits the shop and heads east on Fairclough.

    While Fanny's vigil gets described anywhere from nearly the whole time between 12:30 and 1:00 (The Daily News from October 1, 1888), that same edition of the paper also has a story where it says she went out at around 12:45 and remained there for 10 minutes. The first story names her as Mrs. Mortimer, and says she lived 4 doors from the club, the 2nd story doesn't give a name and says she lives 2 doors from the club. In The London Evening News, October 1st, she's described as living 3 doors from the club (and that edition has a repeat of the story placing her 2 doors from the club). The first version (the whole time) is repeated in a number of papers on Oct 1st, so that seems to be something sent out by Central News (so really just one story). The 2nd one (unnamed 2 doors) is also repeated a few times, so again, seems to be something sent out by Central News to multiple papers. A few papers have reworded or summarized things, but we generally have two versions, a "whole time between 12:30 and 1:00" and a 10 minute vigil in the vicinity of 12:45, that seems to start shortly after PC Smith patrols Berner Street and ends shortly before she hears the pony and cart pass (Deimschutz), after which all the commotion begins. In a few news stories her reason for going to the door in the first place was to shut the bolts, and she ended up staying there for a bit, so the 10 minute vigil seems the more reasonable, and the "nearly the whole time" version sounds a bit more of someone being a bit dramatic and engaging in a bit of hyperbole. Also, given the only person she sees while on the step is Goldstein, if she was there from 12:30 to 1:00, we have to push every other witness who arrives outside of that window, which seems unreasonable. So given she estimates her vigil was 10 minutes in the other stories, and given that estimates of 10 minutes tend to reflect real durations between 3m 48s and 27m 00s, with an average of 7m 56s (call that 8 minutes), I would start by trying to work out where in the sequence of events to place an 8 minute window for her vigil based upon the information concerning what she says happened just before it and just after it (PC Smith passes shortly before, and Deimschutz arrives shortly afterwards).

    If we start by placing her vigil to span 12:45, and her stated 10 minutes is actually closer to 8, that would give us a rough guess of Fanny's vigil being something like 12:41 to 12:49 ish. And we could adjust that based upon the fine tuning of other results, such as PC Smith's patrol, and so forth. One can also then start to consider the duration of that vigil (while the average is 8 minutes, that's just a starting point and other evidence may point to it being longer or shorter than that), and so forth. Somewhere in that vigil we have Goldstein walk down Berner Street, which we can't place exactly other than it occurs during her vigil. We have some club members arrive that she doesn't see, so they appear to arrive before she went out side, and so on.

    It's sort of like building a jigsaw puzzle, sometimes you put together a string of pieces, and have a rough idea where in the overall puzzle they go, and as one fills in more of the details, you eventually find the right placement.

    To be honest, when I was putting together the simulation, I was actually surprised at how things actually fit pretty well.

    - Jeff



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  • JeffHamm
    replied
    Originally posted by GBinOz View Post
    Hi Jeff,

    Thank you for your kind remarks.

    I notice that you are using 1:10:30 for Eagle's arrival at Leman St P.S.. I would think that in the light of lack of evidence to the contrary we would need to accept 1:10 as the recorded time of Eagle's report to the desk Sergeant, so allowing the 30 seconds for Eagle to enter the Station and explain the situation, wouldn't that make his arrival at the door as 1:09:30 ?

    Best regards,
    George
    Hi George,

    I've got 1:10:30 because we don't know what the seconds hand read, but it is somewhere during that minute. So, to avoid biasing the choice towards early in the minute or late in the minute, I put the unknown second hand at the half way point (neither in the first nor second half of the minute). One can then just look at the times with a +-30 "window" to account for the unknown number of seconds.

    As for the arrival at the door vs recorded time, I would think Eagle would enter and alert the inspector right away, and that should take very little time, but one could adjust things if they felt it necessary and had reason to think they had a good idea of how much time it would take between his arrival at the door and his presence being noted and recorded.


    - Jeff
    Last edited by JeffHamm; 05-01-2024, 10:39 PM.

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  • GBinOz
    replied
    Originally posted by FrankO View Post
    Hi Jeff,

    What we also see is that your calculations of Lamb's arrival in the yard go very well with Blackwell's timing, as indirectly referenced by Lamb himself when he stated: "Dr. Blackwell was the first doctor to arrive, and he did so in ten or twelve minutes after my arrival. I had no watch with me, and so I only guess the time.​"

    If one, however, thinks that Lamb actually mistook Johnston for Blackwell, then Lamb would have arrived in the yard between 1:00 and 1:03 - on Blackwell's watch that is. So, in that case, Blackwell's watch and the clock at the police station were out of sync by a maximum of some 6 minutes (and a minimum of 1 minute).

    All the best,
    Frank
    Hi Frank,

    The sequence that suggests to me that Lamb mistook Johnson for Blackwell is:

    Mr. Edward Johnson:​ [Coroner] Did you undo the dress? - The dress was not undone when I came. I undid it to see if the chest was warm. The outer gates were closed shortly after I came.

    Constable Henry Lamb​: Dr. Blackwell was the first doctor to arrive; he came ten or twelve minutes after myself, but I had no watch with me.
    [Coroner] Did any one of the crowd say whether the body had been touched before your arrival? - No. Dr. Blackwell examined the body and its surroundings. Dr. Phillips came ten minutes later. Inspector Pinhorn arrived directly after Dr. Blackwell. When I blew my whistle other constables came, and I had the entrance of the yard closed. This was while Dr. Blackwell was looking at the body. Before that the doors were wide open.

    Mr. Frederick William Blackwell​:
    Dr. Phillips came about twenty minutes to half an hour after my arrival.
    The double doors of the yard were closed when I arrived, so that the previous witness must have made a mistake on that point.

    Lamb testified that he closed the gates after Blackwell arrived, but Blackwell testified specifically that Lamb was mistaken on this point, and Johnson corroborates that opinion by testifying that the gates were closed after he arrived. This would mean that Lamb testified that Johnson (mistaken for Blackwell) arrived 10-12 minutes after he did, which would coincide with Blackwell testifying that he arrived at 1:16, and Johnson testifying that he arrived 3-4 minutes before Blackwell. This would fit with Lamb's testimony of seeing Eagle at 1:00, or shortly before, but complicates the arrival of Pinhorn directly after Johnson (mistaken for Blackwell). It also creates conflict with Lamb's estimate of Phillips arriving 10 minutes after Johnson (mistaken for Blackwell) and Blackwell's estimate that Phillips arrived 20-30 minutes after he did, but of course that conflict would not be resolved by the 3-4 minute difference in arrival times of Johnson and Blackwell.

    Best regards,
    George
    ​​​

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  • GBinOz
    replied
    Hi Jeff,

    Thank you for your kind remarks.

    I notice that you are using 1:10:30 for Eagle's arrival at Leman St P.S.. I would think that in the light of lack of evidence to the contrary we would need to accept 1:10 as the recorded time of Eagle's report to the desk Sergeant, so allowing the 30 seconds for Eagle to enter the Station and explain the situation, wouldn't that make his arrival at the door as 1:09:30 ?

    Best regards,
    George

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  • Fiver
    replied
    Originally posted by Herlock Sholmes View Post

    She heard a cart at around 1.00. Clearly this was Diemschitz unless someone was passing with a mobile phone with a horse and cart on cobbles ringtone?
    Exactly. Mortimer supports Diemschutz timing. The Jewish socialist conspiracy theory requires that Fanny Mortimer did not hear Diemshutz arrive and that Mortimer couldn't tell the difference between a cart pulling into Dutfield's yard and stopping and a cart driving down the road past her home and that Mortimer would make a time error that coincidentally matched Deimshutz' statement. It also requires that none of the plotters noticed this second cart drive by while they were plotting. And it requires this alleged second cart driver to not come forward and contradict the timing lie of the conspirators.

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  • FrankO
    replied
    Originally posted by Michael W Richards View Post

    He says "the first doctor" I saw, and the first medical man on the scene was indeed Johnson. Its not like Dr's wore identifying credentials on their lapels, they were guys in suits who attended physically to injured people. Johnson Im sure did just what a doctor would have done initially.

    And coincidentally... Lamb does say he arrived around 1. Which must mean that Louis arrived earlier, ...earlier enough for the discovery, searching in vain, and then the finding of Lamb can ensure Lamb is at those gates at around 1am. Which is exactly what he said.
    Hi Michael,

    First off, I was just making an observation and have no problem with Lamb arriving in the yard between 1:00 and 1:03 on Blackwell's watch.

    Secondly, Lamb stated something like: doctor Blackwell was the first doctor to arrive. He didn't say "the first medical man" to arrive, but "doctor" and he even named him: Blackwell. Then, Lamb also stated that inspector Pinhorn arrived directly/very shortly after the doctor. We also know that Eagle arrived at the police station at around 1:10 and to alert the inspector to the murder. If Pinhorn would have left immediately after hearing about it, then he would have arrived at the crime scene some 6, perhaps 7 minutes later at most. The time would then have been around 1:17 or maybe 1:18, which corresponds very well with what Lamb stated.

    The best,
    Frank

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  • Herlock Sholmes
    replied
    Originally posted by Michael W Richards View Post

    Hi Jeff,

    So Im clear, I am suggesting that Louis could not have arrived as late as 1am as he claimed, so I see the only reasonable answer as to what time he did arrive had to be when Fanny was not at her door during that last half hour. She says if someone had come from that yard before 1am she would have seen them, and she says that she saw Black Bag Man around 12:55-56 scurry past the gates after looking into the passageway on his way past. She says she went back into the house at around 1. My point on the "before" 1am is to illustrate that IF Louis had been arriving at 1am as he said then Fanny would have been at her door to see him steer his cart and horse up to the gates.

    So, when is Fanny not at her door, and how frequent are the pops indoors? We dont know, but we do know that she did not see Louis, cart and horse arriving when she was at her door. Which for me is likely almost all of the last 10 minutes of that hour.

    So Louis arrived earlier, not later, and wouldnt you know that we have three witnesses, Issac Kozebrodksi, (unsure of his given name at this moment)-Heschberg, and Mr Spooner suggest that they saw Louis and the body around 12:40. So, again as I see this, its likely Fanny was indoors at around that time.

    She does hear a cart and horse pass by while indoors, and she hears bootsteps, but neither sounds are automatically designated as originating from the same sources she estimates they might have come from. She didnt "see" a policeman, nor did she "see" a cart and horse. But since we are on her senses, she also didnt "hear" anything on the street at the time Israel said he was there and saw activity. So.....she can hear bootsteps while inside, but she cant hear 3 mens bootsteps on cobbles and a woman exclaim out loud, and a shout from a surly man at someone? Very selective hearing? Not likely.

    When it comes to Fanny, what she did see is greater in value than what she did not, but both perspectives are informative.
    We don’t know when she was last on her doorstep before she came onto her doorstep after hearing the footsteps.

    We don’t know what time she came onto her doorstep after hearing the footsteps.

    We don’t know how long she was on her doorstep for.

    Great witness. And you use her to dismiss Schwartz and Diemschitz.

    If Diemschitz returned earlier than she said why didn’t she see him?

    She heard a cart at around 1.00. Clearly this was Diemschitz unless someone was passing with a mobile phone with a horse and cart on cobbles ringtone?


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  • Herlock Sholmes
    replied
    Originally posted by JeffHamm View Post

    Thanks Herlock. But George's contribution can't be overstated. His effort of providing us with something solid to work with is the sort of key new information that this case lacks. Personally, I don't think we'll identify JtR, but I do think we can at least work out what happened.

    - Jeff
    Yes, apologies to George for not mentioning his contribution.

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  • Michael W Richards
    replied
    Originally posted by FrankO View Post

    If one, however, thinks that Lamb actually mistook Johnston for Blackwell, then Lamb would have arrived in the yard between 1:00 and 1:03 - on Blackwell's watch that is. So, in that case, Blackwell's watch and the clock at the police station were out of sync by a maximum of some 6 minutes (and a minimum of 1 minute).

    All the best,
    Frank
    He says "the first doctor" I saw, and the first medical man on the scene was indeed Johnson. Its not like Dr's wore identifying credentials on their lapels, they were guys in suits who attended physically to injured people. Johnson Im sure did just what a doctor would have done initially.

    And coincidentally... Lamb does say he arrived around 1. Which must mean that Louis arrived earlier, ...earlier enough for the discovery, searching in vain, and then the finding of Lamb can ensure Lamb is at those gates at around 1am. Which is exactly what he said.

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  • Michael W Richards
    replied
    Originally posted by JeffHamm View Post

    Hi Michael,

    So, are you now saying Louis arrived after 1 o'clock? I always thought you were arguing that he arrived well before 1 o'clock. But above you say "And by using eyewitness statements, Louis did not arrive before 1.", so have you changed your mind on his arrival time then?


    Also, in most accounts, Fanny says she was only on her doorstep for 10 minutes (time isn't really clear, but she goes out shortly after hearing PC Smith go by, or at least hears footsteps she presumes were those of a police officer on beat). That sort of puts her on her stoop for 10 minutes, spanning 12:45 type thing. There is one news report where she's saying "nearly the whole time", but that can't be the case as the only person she sees walk down the street is Goldstein (and a young couple at the corner), and as you say, there were quite a few others going about. I think it is safe to set the "nearly the whole time" statement aside as overstating things.

    I am still planning on going through all the news reports for Fanny to try and create a clock diagram for her statements. Hopefully that will help shed some light on the probable time window she was on her doorstep.

    - Jeff
    Hi Jeff,

    So Im clear, I am suggesting that Louis could not have arrived as late as 1am as he claimed, so I see the only reasonable answer as to what time he did arrive had to be when Fanny was not at her door during that last half hour. She says if someone had come from that yard before 1am she would have seen them, and she says that she saw Black Bag Man around 12:55-56 scurry past the gates after looking into the passageway on his way past. She says she went back into the house at around 1. My point on the "before" 1am is to illustrate that IF Louis had been arriving at 1am as he said then Fanny would have been at her door to see him steer his cart and horse up to the gates.

    So, when is Fanny not at her door, and how frequent are the pops indoors? We dont know, but we do know that she did not see Louis, cart and horse arriving when she was at her door. Which for me is likely almost all of the last 10 minutes of that hour.

    So Louis arrived earlier, not later, and wouldnt you know that we have three witnesses, Issac Kozebrodksi, (unsure of his given name at this moment)-Heschberg, and Mr Spooner suggest that they saw Louis and the body around 12:40. So, again as I see this, its likely Fanny was indoors at around that time.

    She does hear a cart and horse pass by while indoors, and she hears bootsteps, but neither sounds are automatically designated as originating from the same sources she estimates they might have come from. She didnt "see" a policeman, nor did she "see" a cart and horse. But since we are on her senses, she also didnt "hear" anything on the street at the time Israel said he was there and saw activity. So.....she can hear bootsteps while inside, but she cant hear 3 mens bootsteps on cobbles and a woman exclaim out loud, and a shout from a surly man at someone? Very selective hearing? Not likely.

    When it comes to Fanny, what she did see is greater in value than what she did not, but both perspectives are informative.
    Last edited by Michael W Richards; 05-01-2024, 12:06 PM.

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  • FrankO
    replied
    Originally posted by Herlock Sholmes View Post
    Excellent work on timings from Jeff and Frank.
    Thanks, Mike.

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  • JeffHamm
    replied
    Originally posted by Herlock Sholmes View Post
    Excellent work on timings from Jeff and Frank.
    Thanks Herlock. But George's contribution can't be overstated. His effort of providing us with something solid to work with is the sort of key new information that this case lacks. Personally, I don't think we'll identify JtR, but I do think we can at least work out what happened.

    - Jeff

    Leave a comment:


  • JeffHamm
    replied
    Originally posted by FrankO View Post
    Hi Jeff,

    What we also see is that your calculations of Lamb's arrival in the yard go very well with Blackwell's timing, as indirectly referenced by Lamb himself when he stated: "Dr. Blackwell was the first doctor to arrive, and he did so in ten or twelve minutes after my arrival. I had no watch with me, and so I only guess the time.​"

    If one, however, thinks that Lamb actually mistook Johnston for Blackwell, then Lamb would have arrived in the yard between 1:00 and 1:03 - on Blackwell's watch that is. So, in that case, Blackwell's watch and the clock at the police station were out of sync by a maximum of some 6 minutes (and a minimum of 1 minute).

    All the best,
    Frank
    Hi Frank,

    Good point. I think Dr. Blackwell is another good "anchor point" for these sorts of calculations. The simulations I put together use his watch as the "anchor point", for lack of a better word. And yes, the estimated times are similar enough that the conclusion is that it doesn't matter which specific clock you use, the estimated times all "work". And to argue a lie, you have to show that the words do not "work".

    - Jeff

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