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  • Harvey encountering the Ripper on Little Duke Street as the latter emerges from St. James Place or turning the corner from Mitre Street to King Street?

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    • Originally posted by JeffHamm View Post

      Hi Trevor,

      I agree fully with this assessment, and have argued the same thing as well. It would fully and naturally account for how JtR could get out of the square without being seen by PC Harvey - it's not magic, it's how the human visual system works. Also added to that, PC Harvey is patrolling Church Passage, so his attention will be on locations within the passage itself, and less focused on things inside Mitre Square, which was not part of his beat. JtR has a greater chance of being aware of PC Harvey than PC Harvey has of being aware of JtR.

      - Jeff
      Hi Jeff

      I believe another researcher has in the past tried to plot where the police officers would have been at any given time based on an average walking pace. But even that cannot be relied upon because we do not know if they were walking at that given speed, they may have stopped to check a building, or stopped to listen for any unusual sounds in the dead of night all of which would affect any accurate calculation.

      Whatever time we work with whether it be a time between 1.33-1.35 we still do not know how long after the couple were seen did they enter the square, and that is crucial to all that is supposed to have happened thereafter.

      www.trevormarriott.co.uk

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Trevor Marriott View Post

        Hi Jeff

        I believe another researcher has in the past tried to plot where the police officers would have been at any given time based on an average walking pace. But even that cannot be relied upon because we do not know if they were walking at that given speed, they may have stopped to check a building, or stopped to listen for any unusual sounds in the dead of night all of which would affect any accurate calculation.

        Whatever time we work with whether it be a time between 1.33-1.35 we still do not know how long after the couple were seen did they enter the square, and that is crucial to all that is supposed to have happened thereafter.

        www.trevormarriott.co.uk
        Hi Trevor,

        Yah, as with any recreation, one has to remember these are just working with the data we have. There are always the possibility of undocumented things happening, like a PC being at point A at a given time, stopping at point B, then hurrying up, to make up for lost time, and then reporting being at point C at a 2nd reported time. If the events between point A and C involving point B are not recorded, a recreation can't include that. The idea is to give a rough approximation of location, not to suggest they are exact. That being said, it is nice to see that the recreation does correspond well with where the police report themselves being at estimated times. It gives us something to work with. It also corresponds to the estimation of the time that Harvey reports patrolling Church Passage, for example, which has been derived from other forms of analysis.

        And no, we don't know what time the Church Passage Couple moved on, we only know when they could have moved on. We can't even be sure if the Church Passage Couple was even Eddowes and JtR, and if they aren't, then that isn't really an issue. We do know they aren't there was PC Harvey made his patrol, so they are gone by 1:41 (ish). That may be consistent with them being Eddowes and JtR, but it is not proof by any stretch of the imagination. What we do know, is that Eddowes and JtR had to have entered the square sometime after PC Watkins entered at 1:30 and finished his patrol of it and extited again(which required a minute to a minute and a half, so probably sometime after 1:31/1:32 type thing), and that the murder and mutilations were completed probably by the time PC Harvey patrols Church Passage at 1:41. That leaves an 8-9 minute window. If we allow for the full 5 minutes estimated by Phillips for all of that (though it could be as little as 3 by Sequeria's reconing), that means they had to enter no later than 1:36. The distance from the Church Passage Couple to the murder site would take about 30 seconds at an average walking pace, meaning they would have to move on no later than 1:35:30. They were last spotted sometime between 1:33 and 1:35, which means there is the opportunity for them to get there, and so we cannot definitively rule them out. Of course, it doesn't mean they are Eddowes & JtR, it only demonstrates they could be.

        That's been my point all along - the evidence we have is not sufficient to rule them out; and that's very different from saying "it proves they actually did move on at that time". That's never been my claim nor my argument.

        - Jeff

        Comment


        • Originally posted by JeffHamm View Post

          Hi Trevor,

          Yah, as with any recreation, one has to remember these are just working with the data we have. There are always the possibility of undocumented things happening, like a PC being at point A at a given time, stopping at point B, then hurrying up, to make up for lost time, and then reporting being at point C at a 2nd reported time. If the events between point A and C involving point B are not recorded, a recreation can't include that. The idea is to give a rough approximation of location, not to suggest they are exact. That being said, it is nice to see that the recreation does correspond well with where the police report themselves being at estimated times. It gives us something to work with. It also corresponds to the estimation of the time that Harvey reports patrolling Church Passage, for example, which has been derived from other forms of analysis.

          And no, we don't know what time the Church Passage Couple moved on, we only know when they could have moved on. We can't even be sure if the Church Passage Couple was even Eddowes and JtR, and if they aren't, then that isn't really an issue. We do know they aren't there was PC Harvey made his patrol, so they are gone by 1:41 (ish). That may be consistent with them being Eddowes and JtR, but it is not proof by any stretch of the imagination. What we do know, is that Eddowes and JtR had to have entered the square sometime after PC Watkins entered at 1:30 and finished his patrol of it and extited again(which required a minute to a minute and a half, so probably sometime after 1:31/1:32 type thing), and that the murder and mutilations were completed probably by the time PC Harvey patrols Church Passage at 1:41. That leaves an 8-9 minute window. If we allow for the full 5 minutes estimated by Phillips for all of that (though it could be as little as 3 by Sequeria's reconing), that means they had to enter no later than 1:36. The distance from the Church Passage Couple to the murder site would take about 30 seconds at an average walking pace, meaning they would have to move on no later than 1:35:30. They were last spotted sometime between 1:33 and 1:35, which means there is the opportunity for them to get there, and so we cannot definitively rule them out. Of course, it doesn't mean they are Eddowes & JtR, it only demonstrates they could be.

          That's been my point all along - the evidence we have is not sufficient to rule them out; and that's very different from saying "it proves they actually did move on at that time". That's never been my claim nor my argument.

          - Jeff
          Hi Jeff
          I don't want to keep going over old ground but I must mention the fact that Browns time of 5 minutes should not be taken as exact because he used the term "At least 5 mins" and even that is nothing more than a guess, bearing in mind the fact that he asked another more experienced doctor in female anatomy to carry out an experiment, and even with that experiment, we do not know under what conditions it was carried out. I doubt it to have been in almost total darkness on a wet pavement with a long-bladed knife!

          As to Sequeira and his 3 minutes, that time would apply to the killer committing the murder and the mutilations but nothing else, and so that tends to make Browns guess questionable in any event, and clearly Brown had an issue with the time the killer would have had, but I wonder why Brown and Sequeira after making their guesses why didn't they try the experiment themselves?

          As to the time the couple moved off, if they were Eddowes and the killer, we do not know what that time was, the later the time, the less time the killer would have had with Eddowes at the crime scene. So as you say the times are not set in stone. There seems to be a need though to make the 5 minutes fit the bill !!!! with people ignoring a later time if they didn't move till 1.37 bang goes the 5 mins in any event!

          www.trevormarriott.co.uk

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Trevor Marriott View Post

            Hi Jeff
            I don't want to keep going over old ground but I must mention the fact that Browns time of 5 minutes should not be taken as exact because he used the term "At least 5 mins" and even that is nothing more than a guess, bearing in mind the fact that he asked another more experienced doctor in female anatomy to carry out an experiment, and even with that experiment, we do not know under what conditions it was carried out. I doubt it to have been in almost total darkness on a wet pavement with a long-bladed knife!

            As to Sequeira and his 3 minutes, that time would apply to the killer committing the murder and the mutilations but nothing else, and so that tends to make Browns guess questionable in any event, and clearly Brown had an issue with the time the killer would have had, but I wonder why Brown and Sequeira after making their guesses why didn't they try the experiment themselves?

            As to the time the couple moved off, if they were Eddowes and the killer, we do not know what that time was, the later the time, the less time the killer would have had with Eddowes at the crime scene. So as you say the times are not set in stone. There seems to be a need though to make the 5 minutes fit the bill !!!! with people ignoring a later time if they didn't move till 1.37 bang goes the 5 mins in any event!

            www.trevormarriott.co.uk
            Hi Trevor,

            I know you want to extend the time beyond what was testified, and I know you want the Church Passage Couple to hang out longer, walk slowly, and argue as if there wasn't enough time. Problem is, there is enough time to fit the longest contemporary estimate stated into the shortest estimated time window, with only the vague notion of "at least" allowing you to suggest that the longest time might not quite fit into the shortest time window. And you ignore the fact that the time window is probably longer than the shortest given time. Moreover, we also have modern experts proposing as little as 2 minutes would be required for everything, including organ removal. You're ignoring the fact that the "lots of time" you are proposing are required represents the opinion of the person who gave the largest value. They are, therefore, considered an extreme estimate of the actual amount of time required. And, you acknowledge that all the mutilations were done, which means you're only arguing about the cut required to remove the uterus, and the other cut required to remove the kidney. Those two cuts would add an insignificant amount to the total time required.

            I do get what you're saying. But you're arguing against something I'm not saying - I'm not saying it was proven that the Church Passage Couple did move off at 1:35. We don't even know if they really were Eddowes and JtR after all. They could have hung out chatting and moved off when they saw PC Harvey coming down the road. You don't know anymore than I do if that was the case.

            And while I tend to think Lawende, Levey, and Harris waited for 3-5 minutes after 1:30 because it was raining, some have suggested the rain may have stopped earlier, and that 3-5 minutes was just them getting ready to go. If that were the case, then if the Church Passage Couple are not Eddowes and JtR, then Eddowes and JtR are free to have entered the square even earlier, extending the time available even more.

            What I've been arguing is that we cannot exclude the Church Passage Couple because if the full 5 minutes was required and our most extreme estimate is in fact correct, then Eddowes and JtR had to be at the crime scene by 1:36 (or even 1:37 PC Harvey's patrol was closer to 1:42 than 1:41). And the last time that couple was spotted was, at the latest, 1:35, and it's a 30 second walk to the crime scene.

            And even you have to agree that a minute is longer than 30 seconds, and that means it is possible for the Church Passage Couple to be Eddowes and JtR. It doesn't matter that you can speculate unsubstantiated ideas about them walking slowly, or hanging out longer, or anything like that, as that doesn't change the fact that from the time of their last recorded sighting, they have sufficient time, and are in a location to, get to the crime scene and for there still to be enough time to cover even the longest estimate of the time required, barring perhaps the vague qualifier depending upon how one interprets that (i.e. does he mean maybe 5 minutes 15 seconds? does he mean 20 minutes, making it impossible for anyone, and so forth. His vague qualifier also indicates he is uncertain which I note Sequeria did not indicate in his 3 minute estimate, yet you want to set the more confident Sequeria aside and you focus on the more uncertain individual because it fits your theory. I think the modern expert, presented earlier in this thread I believe, also suggested 3 minutes, and then added maybe even as little as 2. And modern pathologists have a lot more experience with what serial killers can do and how long it takes them).

            I don't have a theory, or an agenda, or even a suspect. I just look to see what we can, and cannot conclude. And as I've been clear, we cannot conclude much, but we can conclude it is possible for the Church Passage Couple to fit the evidence. That's it. I'm not even saying they were, in fact, Eddowes and JtR. If they're not, though, we may have even more time for the real Eddowes and JtR to be at the crime scene than we think we have.

            - Jeff
            Last edited by JeffHamm; 03-11-2020, 10:17 AM.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by JeffHamm View Post

              Hi Trevor,

              I know you want to extend the time beyond what was testified, and I know you want the Church Passage Couple to hang out longer, walk slowly, and argue as if there wasn't enough time. Problem is, there is enough time to fit the longest contemporary estimate stated into the shortest estimated time window, with only the vague notion of "at least" allowing you to suggest that the longest time might not quite fit into the shortest time window. And you ignore the fact that the time window is probably longer than the shortest given time. Moreover, we also have modern experts proposing as little as 2 minutes would be required for everything, including organ removal. You're ignoring the fact that the "lots of time" you are proposing are required represents the opinion of the person who gave the largest value. They are, therefore, considered an extreme estimate of the actual amount of time required. And, you acknowledge that all the mutilations were done, which means you're only arguing about the cut required to remove the uterus, and the other cut required to remove the kidney. Those two cuts would add an insignificant amount to the total time required.

              I do get what you're saying. But you're arguing against something I'm not saying - I'm not saying it was proven that the Church Passage Couple did move off at 1:35. We don't even know if they really were Eddowes and JtR after all. They could have hung out chatting and moved off when they saw PC Harvey coming down the road. You don't know anymore than I do if that was the case.

              And while I tend to think Lawende, Levey, and Harris waited for 3-5 minutes after 1:30 because it was raining, some have suggested the rain may have stopped earlier, and that 3-5 minutes was just them getting ready to go. If that were the case, then if the Church Passage Couple are not Eddowes and JtR, then Eddowes and JtR are free to have entered the square even earlier, extending the time available even more.

              What I've been arguing is that we cannot exclude the Church Passage Couple because if the full 5 minutes was required and our most extreme estimate is in fact correct, then Eddowes and JtR had to be at the crime scene by 1:36 (or even 1:37 PC Harvey's patrol was closer to 1:42 than 1:41). And the last time that couple was spotted was, at the latest, 1:35, and it's a 30 second walk to the crime scene.

              And even you have to agree that a minute is longer than 30 seconds, and that means it is possible for the Church Passage Couple to be Eddowes and JtR. It doesn't matter that you can speculate unsubstantiated ideas about them walking slowly, or hanging out longer, or anything like that, as that doesn't change the fact that from the time of their last recorded sighting, they have sufficient time, and are in a location to, get to the crime scene and for there still to be enough time to cover even the longest estimate of the time required, barring perhaps the vague qualifier depending upon how one interprets that (i.e. does he mean maybe 5 minutes 15 seconds? does he mean 20 minutes, making it impossible for anyone, and so forth. His vague qualifier also indicates he is uncertain which I note Sequeria did not indicate in his 3 minute estimate, yet you want to set the more confident Sequeria aside and you focus on the more uncertain individual because it fits your theory. I think the modern expert, presented earlier in this thread I believe, also suggested 3 minutes, and then added maybe even as little as 2. And modern pathologists have a lot more experience with what serial killers can do and how long it takes them).

              I don't have a theory, or an agenda, or even a suspect. I just look to see what we can, and cannot conclude. And as I've been clear, we cannot conclude much, but we can conclude it is possible for the Church Passage Couple to fit the evidence. That's it. I'm not even saying they were, in fact, Eddowes and JtR. If they're not, though, we may have even more time for the real Eddowes and JtR to be at the crime scene than we think we have.

              - Jeff
              Jeff
              I have walked the distance from church passage to the murder spot and it took me at a slow walking speed just under one minute not 30 seconds. and I have to say that I do not agree with your conclusions. And you cannot argue against the fact that if the couple were Eddowes and the killer they may not have left at 1.35 am and so if they didn't all those calculations are incorrect. Because for anywhere near 5 mins to be established they could not have left any later than 1.36, and of that you nor I cannot be certain about.

              I recently asked a medical expert who was about to perform a post mortem on a deceased person to see how long it would take to remove a kidney from the start. i.e. opening up the abdominal cavity it took him just under 3 minutes and that was in a controlled experiment with full lighting. Our killer did not have those options going for him. So Dr Browns at least 5 mins is very questionable, to say the least. Not forgetting the time Dr Phillips quoted for the time it would have taken him to remove the organs from Chapman "at least 15 mins"

              www.trevormarriott.co.uk

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Trevor Marriott View Post

                Jeff
                I have walked the distance from church passage to the murder spot and it took me at a slow walking speed just under one minute not 30 seconds. and I have to say that I do not agree with your conclusions. And you cannot argue against the fact that if the couple were Eddowes and the killer they may not have left at 1.35 am and so if they didn't all those calculations are incorrect. Because for anywhere near 5 mins to be established they could not have left any later than 1.36, and of that you nor I cannot be certain about.

                I recently asked a medical expert who was about to perform a post mortem on a deceased person to see how long it would take to remove a kidney from the start. i.e. opening up the abdominal cavity it took him just under 3 minutes and that was in a controlled experiment with full lighting. Our killer did not have those options going for him. So Dr Browns at least 5 mins is very questionable, to say the least. Not forgetting the time Dr Phillips quoted for the time it would have taken him to remove the organs from Chapman "at least 15 mins"

                www.trevormarriott.co.uk
                Hi Trevor,


                Shown below is the distance, 163 feet. The average walking speed is 3.1 mph, which is 272.8 ft/min. So I stand corrected, at an average walking speed it would require 36 seconds to cover that distance. A police on patrol (who were to walk at about 2.5 mph, slower than average), would take about 44 seconds. To get to a minute, you've got to really try to creep along. But what does showing one can move like cold molasses prove, other than it takes longer to cover the same distance if you walk more slowly? If you want to consider real possibilities, you need to use realistic estimates, and the average walking speed is a realistic estimate for how fast people walk. Basing things on a snail's pace isn't.

                Click image for larger version  Name:	MitreSquare_Distance.jpg Views:	0 Size:	69.4 KB ID:	733133

                Yah, removing a kidney took him 3 minutes from the start of opening up. Not three minutes after having opened up the body, and removing the colon, and all the other abdominal mutilations. We all agree those things were done, so we all agree JtR needs an amount of time to do those things. The only thing left is the removal of the kidney itself, which would be a small fraction of the whole 3 minutes, and it's that small fraction you're trying to say makes all the difference in the world. I also doubt your post-mortem doctor was willing to go at it with complete disregard for the integrity of the body and total lack of respect for the deceased. Add those in, and they probably could shave off another 20-30 seconds. You don't know they couldn't have; you also don't know that someone else couldn't have done it faster (I'm just using your snail pace walk argument in reverse here, so I'm sure I've convinced you).

                And you're right, if the Church Passage Couple were Eddowes and JtR, they might have left later than 1:36 because JtR also might not have required 5 minutes but only 4, or 3, or, by the most extreme I've seen, as little as 2 minutes. Why you think going with the most extreme the other way is fine, but won't even consider the most extreme in the short way seems a bit odd to me, given that your basic argument is that we don't know. You're arguing as if you do know, I'm the one talking about windows of time, reflecting that uncertainty in what we know, while you're looking at the unaccounted time and arguing, without justification, that we should not consider part of it - the part that indicates there is enough time. You seem to want to argue on the basis that we don't know by taking a stance that requires you to know - you can't disregard the part that gives enough time without knowing that should be disregarded. So, either you know, or you don't. If you don't, then you have to acknowledge that 6 minutes is more than 5.

                As for me, I'm not claiming to know, rather, I'm comparing the shortest time window of unaccounted time that we get from the evidence (6 minutes), to the longest amount of time that has been given in the testimony (5 minutes), and noting that 5 minutes is less than 6. You seem to find that difficult to agree with. You're also basing a great deal on assuming the Church Passage Couple are, in truth, Eddowes and JtR. While I do think that's the most supported conclusion (a relative statement of probability and support), I've also made it clear that in the absolute sense the support for that conclusion is very weak (which is an absolute statement of probability and support). If you're wrong, and the CPC are not Eddowes and JtR, then what time they move off is irrelevant, and what times they are known to be at the Duke Street end of Church Passage is also irrelevant - which I've made clear and you have not.

                Also, not sure what Dr. Phillips view of a different murder has to do with Eddowes. The amount of collateral damage to Eddowes internal organs points to someone working much faster (and in less light). Also, you have to remember, the Victorian doctors hadn't seen anything like the JtR murders before (stranger murder with mutilations, etc). We've learned, sadly, since then that people can do such things in much less time than one imagines. When you've got a complete contempt for the victim, there's nothing to hold them back.

                - Jeff
                Last edited by JeffHamm; 03-11-2020, 06:07 PM.

                Comment


                • That's a very disciplined look at the time required to accomplish things Jeff...now add killing someone outdoors and the adrenaline that would be present, and the almost pitch black conditions, which would have the killer essentially feeling his way to the cutting spots. Things can be accomplished in short periods of time, but the immediate environmental factors and the physiological state might greatly impact any numbers you might fix on.

                  I personally don't believe Lawende saw Kate, (and interestingly at least to me, I also don't believe Israel saw Liz as he described....although I feel the first was just mistaken and the second was to create a storyline...), so the overall time he would need to accomplish his activities isn't on the same stop watch for me as it is for others. He had time if that was the case. I also am not sure that Harvey looked into the square at all, so he's not a huge issue for me either.
                  Michael Richards

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Michael W Richards View Post
                    That's a very disciplined look at the time required to accomplish things Jeff...now add killing someone outdoors and the adrenaline that would be present, and the almost pitch black conditions, which would have the killer essentially feeling his way to the cutting spots. Things can be accomplished in short periods of time, but the immediate environmental factors and the physiological state might greatly impact any numbers you might fix on.

                    I personally don't believe Lawende saw Kate, (and interestingly at least to me, I also don't believe Israel saw Liz as he described....although I feel the first was just mistaken and the second was to create a storyline...), so the overall time he would need to accomplish his activities isn't on the same stop watch for me as it is for others. He had time if that was the case. I also am not sure that Harvey looked into the square at all, so he's not a huge issue for me either.
                    Hi Michael,

                    I don't know if Lawende saw Eddowes either. He identified the clothes as looking similar, but that's not exactly a very compelling identification. We do not have any other sightings of couples in the vicinity, but again, the absence of evidence isn't evidence of absence. But it leaves us in a situation where we don't have another sighted couple to consider as an alternative to one with some level of identification, who are also seen very close to the murder site at an appropriate time. Yet, despite how that might make it feel like it probably was Eddowes and JtR, in the end, it is not proof. It's also not really that difficult to suggest that the real Eddowes and JtR simply entered Mitre Square from some other entrance.

                    As for the time required, even if PC Harvey didn't enter the square, his walk down Church Passage would have him facing directly at the murder site. But, Mitre Square was not part of his beat, and if his attention is focused within Church Passage he's going to be less aware of things in the Square. Add to that the fact there's a lamp at the end of it (the Mitre Square end), that's going to make it difficult for him to see into the square as well. So PC Harvey not seeing Eddowes and JtR isn't really a mystery, thought it's unfortunate.

                    JtR, however, would probably hear his footsteps (police patrols were to be at around 2.5 mph, which is slower than average, so their footsteps would be identifiable by the pace - and their boots were apparently quite noisy). JtR would presumably be sensitive to the possibility of capture, and if he could hear PC Harvey coming up the passage, or simply could see him as the passage was lit at both ends, then JtR would flee. Morris opening the door about the same time would also be enough to make him flee (being seen by anyone would be undesirable to JtR after all).

                    I think it is, therefore, prudent to work with PC Harvey's patrol of Church Passage around 141 as the maximum end of the time window that JtR is in the square.

                    And, we know Eddowes was murdered, her throat cut, her face slashed, her nose cut off, her clothes hiked up, her abdomen cut open, her colon sectioned and removed, and, despite Trevor's alternative hypotheses, her uterus partly removed, her kidney removed, and her apron cut and a piece taken away. In the process of all that, there are a number of injuries to her internal organs as well, some of which at least would have occurred during the above processes.

                    However much time JtR had in the Square, it was enough for him to do all of the above, Trevor's counter hypothesis notwithstanding (Trevor's claim is that all of the above is done, except for 1) cut out of the uterus and 2) cut out the kidney - I see those two cuts as increasing the required time very little over and above what is required for all of the rest to the point that, if he had time to do all of the rest, he had time for 2 more cuts as well).

                    Anyway, that's a different issue.

                    Now, if we accept that PC Harvey is the end of the time available (though of course JtR could have fled earlier on his own, but we don't know that just because we can speculate it), then it would be helpful to work out when he could have entered the square.

                    It has to be after PC Watkins patrolled it at 1:30, and his patrol around Mitre Square would take about 90 seconds, so the absolute earliest would be 1:31:30.

                    Now, if the Church Passage Couple is not Eddowes and JtR, then they probably entered from one of the other entrances, either the passage from St. James, or from Mitre Street.

                    St. James Passageway:
                    There are press reports where Blenkinsop (sp?) in St. James Plaza where he says he saw people around, but he did not see anyone go into Mitre Square from St. James, but he wasn't paying attention. So, while there's people, there's no reported couples specifically, but that doesn't mean there was or wasn't - it means we don't know so that leaves us open to the possibility. And PC Watkins didn't patroll that passage, so it was possible they were in there, and they could immediately move to the crime location upon PC Watkins exit of the square.

                    Resulting time window : 1:31:30 - 1:41 = 9 min 30 seconds.
                    Supporting evidence : almost none
                    Disconfirming evidence: none

                    Mitre Street:
                    We have no reports of any people in Mtire Street at all as far as I'm aware. Not saying there weren't people there, just can't think of any reports that state that.
                    We know PC Watkins goes north out of Mtire Square, and presumably if he had seen a couple on his rounds we would know about it (it would have been a lead and recorded as such), but of course Eddowes and JtR could have come up from the south, and they seen PC Watkins exit and go north. Given Watkins doesn't appear to have seen them, there would have to be some distance between Eddowes and JtR and the Mitre Street entrance so that PC Watkins can exit, turn north, and not notice them. Let's say they are at least 15 seconds walk south of Mtire Square, which sets our minimum time.

                    Resulting time window : 1:31:45 = 1:41 = 9 min 15 seconds
                    Supporting evidence : none
                    Disconfirming evidence : none

                    Church Passage:
                    Ok, if Eddowes and JtR enter from Church Passage then I think it's best to assume the Church Passage Couple is Eddowes and JtR. One could hypothesize other scenarios, but for now let's work with that.

                    A couple is spotted at the Duke Street end of Church Passage sometime between 1:33-1:35. Eddowes clothing is later testified to look similar to the clothing the woman was wearing. There is no couple in this location when PC Harvey patrols Church Passage at 1:41. the distance to travel to the crime location, at an average walking pace, is 36 seconds, but as I've not including travel times in the others I won't include that here for simplicity (Note, I did include the additional time to travel the distance to get to the entrance of Mitre Square in example 2, but in neither case have I included the estimated time to get to the crime scene location from there).

                    Resulting time window (max): 1:33 - 1:41 = 8 minutes
                    Resulting time window (min): :1:35 - 1:41 = 6 minutes

                    Supporting evidence: minimal
                    Disconfirming evidence: none

                    So, in order to argue that there wasn't enough time (an argument that shows up in various theories ranging from the Royal Conspiracy, to the general "she was killed elsewhere", and on to Trevor's organ thieves), one has to rule out all of the above scenarios as providing insufficient time. To prove there wasn't enough time, you have to, you know, prove there wasn't, not speculate that the available time wasn't used in order to create the impression that somehow that unaccounted for time should be treated as if it is accounted for.

                    That means, to prove there isn't enough time one has to prove it would take more than 9 minutes and 30 seconds, or be able to prove that Eddowes and JtR were definitely not in the passage to St. James.

                    Let's say that could somehow be done. Now you have to prove that 9 minutes and 15 seconds is not enough, or be able to prove that Eddowes and JtR were also definitely not in Mitre Street.

                    Given we have very little, if anything, evidential to work from about those two options, that proof is not forthcoming from those areas.

                    So you're left with proving the Church Passage Couple are Eddowes and JtR (which would prove they could not have been in the other locations), and while there is at least some evidence to argue for that possibility, the evidence falls well short of approaching proof.

                    But even if you convince yourself they are Eddowes and JtR, then you still have to prove that our 8 minutes (the maximum amount of time unaccounted for) is not enough. You can't rule out that option without ruling out all of the time it provides.

                    Proof and disproof both require a level of evidence far beyond what we have. Speculation and story telling, while entertaining and also useful ways to generate new potential hypotheses to follow up and look for evidence, have their place. But just because we can make up a good story, one that we like and "feels right" to us, doesn't mean it is right, and that story is not proof of anything other than one's one creativity.

                    - Jeff

                    P.S. There are times when PC Harvey's patrol time is described as 1:41-1:42 as well, I've chosen the earlier of these for the above discussion, but for completeness, there is a potential extra minute to add to all of those times available above.
                    Last edited by JeffHamm; 03-12-2020, 07:28 PM.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by JeffHamm View Post

                      Hi Michael,

                      I don't know if Lawende saw Eddowes either. He identified the clothes as looking similar, but that's not exactly a very compelling identification. We do not have any other sightings of couples in the vicinity, but again, the absence of evidence isn't evidence of absence. But it leaves us in a situation where we don't have another sighted couple to consider as an alternative to one with some level of identification, who are also seen very close to the murder site at an appropriate time. Yet, despite how that might make it feel like it probably was Eddowes and JtR, in the end, it is not proof. It's also not really that difficult to suggest that the real Eddowes and JtR simply entered Mitre Square from some other entrance.

                      As for the time required, even if PC Harvey didn't enter the square, his walk down Church Passage would have him facing directly at the murder site. But, Mitre Square was not part of his beat, and if his attention is focused within Church Passage he's going to be less aware of things in the Square. Add to that the fact there's a lamp at the end of it (the Mitre Square end), that's going to make it difficult for him to see into the square as well. So PC Harvey not seeing Eddowes and JtR isn't really a mystery, thought it's unfortunate.

                      JtR, however, would probably hear his footsteps (police patrols were to be at around 2.5 mph, which is slower than average, so their footsteps would be identifiable by the pace - and their boots were apparently quite noisy). JtR would presumably be sensitive to the possibility of capture, and if he could hear PC Harvey coming up the passage, or simply could see him as the passage was lit at both ends, then JtR would flee. Morris opening the door about the same time would also be enough to make him flee (being seen by anyone would be undesirable to JtR after all).

                      I think it is, therefore, prudent to work with PC Harvey's patrol of Church Passage around 141 as the maximum end of the time window that JtR is in the square.

                      And, we know Eddowes was murdered, her throat cut, her face slashed, her nose cut off, her clothes hiked up, her abdomen cut open, her colon sectioned and removed, and, despite Trevor's alternative hypotheses, her uterus partly removed, her kidney removed, and her apron cut and a piece taken away. In the process of all that, there are a number of injuries to her internal organs as well, some of which at least would have occurred during the above processes.

                      However much time JtR had in the Square, it was enough for him to do all of the above, Trevor's counter hypothesis notwithstanding (Trevor's claim is that all of the above is done, except for 1) cut out of the uterus and 2) cut out the kidney - I see those two cuts as increasing the required time very little over and above what is required for all of the rest to the point that, if he had time to do all of the rest, he had time for 2 more cuts as well).

                      Anyway, that's a different issue.

                      Now, if we accept that PC Harvey is the end of the time available (though of course JtR could have fled earlier on his own, but we don't know that just because we can speculate it), then it would be helpful to work out when he could have entered the square.

                      It has to be after PC Watkins patrolled it at 1:30, and his patrol around Mitre Square would take about 90 seconds, so the absolute earliest would be 1:31:30.

                      Now, if the Church Passage Couple is not Eddowes and JtR, then they probably entered from one of the other entrances, either the passage from St. James, or from Mitre Street.

                      St. James Passageway:
                      There are press reports where Blenkinsop (sp?) in St. James Plaza where he says he saw people around, but he did not see anyone go into Mitre Square from St. James, but he wasn't paying attention. So, while there's people, there's no reported couples specifically, but that doesn't mean there was or wasn't - it means we don't know so that leaves us open to the possibility. And PC Watkins didn't patroll that passage, so it was possible they were in there, and they could immediately move to the crime location upon PC Watkins exit of the square.

                      Resulting time window : 1:31:30 - 1:41 = 9 min 30 seconds.
                      Supporting evidence : almost none
                      Disconfirming evidence: none

                      Mitre Street:
                      We have no reports of any people in Mtire Street at all as far as I'm aware. Not saying there weren't people there, just can't think of any reports that state that.
                      We know PC Watkins goes north out of Mtire Square, and presumably if he had seen a couple on his rounds we would know about it (it would have been a lead and recorded as such), but of course Eddowes and JtR could have come up from the south, and they seen PC Watkins exit and go north. Given Watkins doesn't appear to have seen them, there would have to be some distance between Eddowes and JtR and the Mitre Street entrance so that PC Watkins can exit, turn north, and not notice them. Let's say they are at least 15 seconds walk south of Mtire Square, which sets our minimum time.

                      Resulting time window : 1:31:45 = 1:41 = 9 min 15 seconds
                      Supporting evidence : none
                      Disconfirming evidence : none

                      Church Passage:
                      Ok, if Eddowes and JtR enter from Church Passage then I think it's best to assume the Church Passage Couple is Eddowes and JtR. One could hypothesize other scenarios, but for now let's work with that.

                      A couple is spotted at the Duke Street end of Church Passage sometime between 1:33-1:35. Eddowes clothing is later testified to look similar to the clothing the woman was wearing. There is no couple in this location when PC Harvey patrols Church Passage at 1:41. the distance to travel to the crime location, at an average walking pace, is 36 seconds, but as I've not including travel times in the others I won't include that here for simplicity (Note, I did include the additional time to travel the distance to get to the entrance of Mitre Square in example 2, but in neither case have I included the estimated time to get to the crime scene location from there).

                      Resulting time window (max): 1:33 - 1:41 = 8 minutes
                      Resulting time window (min): :1:35 - 1:41 = 6 minutes

                      Supporting evidence: minimal
                      Disconfirming evidence: none

                      So, in order to argue that there wasn't enough time (an argument that shows up in various theories ranging from the Royal Conspiracy, to the general "she was killed elsewhere", and on to Trevor's organ thieves), one has to rule out all of the above scenarios as providing insufficient time. To prove there wasn't enough time, you have to, you know, prove there wasn't, not speculate that the available time wasn't used in order to create the impression that somehow that unaccounted for time should be treated as if it is accounted for.

                      That means, to prove there isn't enough time one has to prove it would take more than 9 minutes and 30 seconds, or be able to prove that Eddowes and JtR were definitely not in the passage to St. James.

                      Let's say that could somehow be done. Now you have to prove that 9 minutes and 15 seconds is not enough, or be able to prove that Eddowes and JtR were also definitely not in Mitre Street.

                      Given we have very little, if anything, evidential to work from about those two options, that proof is not forthcoming from those areas.

                      So you're left with proving the Church Passage Couple are Eddowes and JtR (which would prove they could not have been in the other locations), and while there is at least some evidence to argue for that possibility, the evidence falls well short of approaching proof.

                      But even if you convince yourself they are Eddowes and JtR, then you still have to prove that our 8 minutes (the maximum amount of time unaccounted for) is not enough. You can't rule out that option without ruling out all of the time it provides.

                      Proof and disproof both require a level of evidence far beyond what we have. Speculation and story telling, while entertaining and also useful ways to generate new potential hypotheses to follow up and look for evidence, have their place. But just because we can make up a good story, one that we like and "feels right" to us, doesn't mean it is right, and that story is not proof of anything other than one's one creativity.

                      - Jeff

                      P.S. There are times when PC Harvey's patrol time is described as 1:41-1:42 as well, I've chosen the earlier of these for the above discussion, but for completeness, there is a potential extra minute to add to all of those times available above.
                      Jeff
                      Your times look very good on paper but in reality, you have produced a one-sided picture.

                      You ignore the fact that if the couple seen were the killer and Eddowes and if they moved from the spot where they were seen at different times the results would be totally different

                      1.36 left location-1.37 arrived crime scene-Harvey 1.41 Time 4 mins
                      1.37 left location-1.38 arrived crime scene-Harvey 1.41 Time 3 mins

                      2nd scenario
                      1.36 left location-1.37 arrived crime scene-Harvey 1.42 Time 5 mins
                      1.37 left location-1.38 arrived crime scene-Harvey 1.42 Time 4 mins

                      The reality is that we cannot conclusively rely on any of the timings as being correct, and so I would suggest my hypothesis cannot also be ruled out, which many would dearly like to do

                      www.trevormarriott.co.uk

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Trevor Marriott View Post

                        Jeff
                        Your times look very good on paper but in reality, you have produced a one-sided picture.

                        You ignore the fact that if the couple seen were the killer and Eddowes and if they moved from the spot where they were seen at different times the results would be totally different

                        1.36 left location-1.37 arrived crime scene-Harvey 1.41 Time 4 mins
                        1.37 left location-1.38 arrived crime scene-Harvey 1.41 Time 3 mins

                        2nd scenario
                        1.36 left location-1.37 arrived crime scene-Harvey 1.42 Time 5 mins
                        1.37 left location-1.38 arrived crime scene-Harvey 1.42 Time 4 mins

                        The reality is that we cannot conclusively rely on any of the timings as being correct, and so I would suggest my hypothesis cannot also be ruled out, which many would dearly like to do

                        www.trevormarriott.co.uk
                        Hi Trevor,

                        Ah, sorry, I think I finally see what's going on. No, it doesn't rule out your hypothesis, it only means there is no evidence to support your hypothesis. Also, your example above is based upon the conditional statement that the Church Passage Couple is, in fact, Eddowes and JtR. That's an unsafe conclusion to draw so strongly, as you well know.

                        But if they are (so, if we decide that is true for arguments sake), you then have to view the evidence as indicating when they would have had to leave if nothing more complicated than "JtR kills, mutilates, and takes organs", because that is the most parsimonious explanation. If, however, that explanation cannot work, it means something is wrong. The safest approach would be to start by assuming our initial premise that the Church Passage Couple was actually Eddowes and JtR is the problem given we have two other options to consider.

                        If those also cannot account for the most parsimonious explanation, then that would prove we continue to have a problem. That would justify considering a more complex explanation, an example of which is your proposal there were two separate organ thieves, one who took Annie Chapman's uterus and one who took Eddowes' partial uterus and her kidney.

                        However, those problems do not exist, meaning the more parsimonious explanation cannot be considered inaccurate. As such, there is nothing to indicate the more complicated alternative of organ theft is warrented.

                        You can, however, argue that "Nonetheless, things can be more complicated than the simplest explanation", which is of course true. But without proving that none of the above times are sufficient, you cannot rule out the simplest explanation. You cannot even rule out that the Church Passage Couple moved on as soon as Lawende and friends passed them, so while you can speculate they may have waited, you cannot prove they did and so you cannot prove they didn't.

                        To repeat, I'm not saying I've proved they did move on at any particular time (that would be an unsafe conclusion), or even that they were Eddowes and JtR (also unsafe, given the weakness of the identification). I'm only saying the evidence allows for them to get there on time (and it clearly does, that's not unsafe, that's just saying 6 minutes is more than 5), and because of that it means the evidence does not prove they cannot be Eddowes and JtR.

                        I don't know if I can be any clearer than that? But pointing out "they might have actually hung out for 5 minutes more" isn't a meaningful rebuttal because it's just a speculative "might have/could have/what if" type statement, they are not based upon any known evidence, so those statements are 100% unsafe.

                        - Jeff

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by JeffHamm View Post

                          Hi Trevor,

                          Ah, sorry, I think I finally see what's going on. No, it doesn't rule out your hypothesis, it only means there is no evidence to support your hypothesis. Also, your example above is based upon the conditional statement that the Church Passage Couple is, in fact, Eddowes and JtR. That's an unsafe conclusion to draw so strongly, as you well know.

                          There is no evidence to show the couple were not Eddowes and the killer, and no evidence to show that they moved off at a time that fits with the 5-minute window everyone seems to want to work with, and accept as being correct, which it is not So all options have to be considered based on the fact that they were, and I realise we would not be arguing the times if it weren't for that hypothesis

                          But my hypothesis is no more unsafe than those who suggest the couple were Eddowes and the killer and that the killer had sufficient time to do all that he is alleged to have done, and rely on the times you quote to prop it up. Conversely, based on the times I quoted which show the killer did not have enough time. You keep saying you have no horse in this race when you clearly do by your posts, and that is the belief that by the times you stated the killer did have enough time.

                          But it is not until you look at all the other supporting facts surrounding the alleged missing organs, and the lack of missing organs from the rest of the victims the hypothesis is not so far fetched as you and others would have the rest of Ripperology belive


                          I don't know if I can be any clearer than that? But pointing out "they might have actually hung out for 5 minutes more" isn't a meaningful rebuttal because it's just a speculative "might have/could have/what if" type statement, they are not based upon any known evidence, so those statements are 100% unsafe.

                          They are no more unsafe than the belief that they moved off at 1.35 am because we don't know, and cant prove that so it is wrong for you to suggest anything to the contrary as being correct.

                          - Jeff
                          www.trevormarriott.co.uk

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Trevor Marriott View Post
                            Hi Trevor,

                            Ah, sorry, I think I finally see what's going on. No, it doesn't rule out your hypothesis, it only means there is no evidence to support your hypothesis. Also, your example above is based upon the conditional statement that the Church Passage Couple is, in fact, Eddowes and JtR. That's an unsafe conclusion to draw so strongly, as you well know.

                            There is no evidence to show the couple were not Eddowes and the killer, and no evidence to show that they moved off at a time that fits with the 5-minute window everyone seems to want to work with, and accept as being correct, which it is not So all options have to be considered based on the fact that they were, and I realise we would not be arguing the times if it weren't for that hypothesis

                            But my hypothesis is no more unsafe than those who suggest the couple were Eddowes and the killer and that the killer had sufficient time to do all that he is alleged to have done, and rely on the times you quote to prop it up. Conversely, based on the times I quoted which show the killer did not have enough time. You keep saying you have no horse in this race when you clearly do by your posts, and that is the belief that by the times you stated the killer did have enough time.

                            But it is not until you look at all the other supporting facts surrounding the alleged missing organs, and the lack of missing organs from the rest of the victims the hypothesis is not so far fetched as you and others would have the rest of Ripperology belive


                            I don't know if I can be any clearer than that? But pointing out "they might have actually hung out for 5 minutes more" isn't a meaningful rebuttal because it's just a speculative "might have/could have/what if" type statement, they are not based upon any known evidence, so those statements are 100% unsafe.

                            They are no more unsafe than the belief that they moved off at 1.35 am because we don't know, and cant prove that so it is wrong for you to suggest anything to the contrary as being correct.

                            - Jeff
                            www.trevormarriott.co.uk
                            Hi Trevor,

                            You do not seem to understand the difference between my saying "The evidence does not preclude them from having moved on at 1:35", which is true and which is what I've been claiming, and someone else saying (because it's not what I've stated): "They did move on at 1:35", which would be unsafe and invalid, and is the point you're arguing against, but exactly the point you're arguing in favour of when you say they moved later, or walked slowly.

                            Also, as I've clearly and unambiguously stated, I too cannot, and do not, suggest concluding the Church Passage Couple were definately not Eddowes and JtR because the evidence does not allow for that conclusion, that would be unsafe. Yet based upon your sole focus on the time of their sightings, you clearly are building upon having drawn that unsafe conclusion, it's not one I have made that's for sure. In fact, as I've clearly said, it is entirely possible that Eddowes and JtR were, in fact, elsewhere and entred Mitre Square via one of the other possible entrances. Why would I present them? Because I'm not stating unsafe things, I'm just trying to narrow down and find the limits of what we know. Unfortunately, we don't know much.

                            You also keep presenting examples where you argue that there might have been as short as 3 minutes as you give the example "1.37 left location-1.38 arrived crime scene-Harvey 1.41 Time 3 mins" in post #850.

                            So you believe that JtR could murder, mutilate Kate's face, open her abdomen, section and remove part of her colon, and damage her internal organs, cut her apron, and flee the scene in 3 minutes.

                            Now, for JtR to also take her uterus and kidney, all that is left for him to do is:
                            1) cut out part of her uterus
                            2) cut out her kidney

                            Those two cuts do not add an appreciable amount of time compared to everything else.

                            And, given you have no basis for that 3 minutes being the actual amount of time JtR had, but you yourself have indicated that's all he needs to do everything but the two cuts I've indicated, and there are still at least an additional 3 minutes of time left unaccounted for, well, I find your argument that JtR did not have enough time already self contradictory. He can, by your own example, and therefore your own belief, murder, mutilate, and flee in 3 minutes. Two additional cuts cannot therefore be argued to require more than all of that. You're example itself indicates JtR had enough time (it doesn't tell us how much that time was, but it tells us he had enough).

                            Personally, though, I think once anyone ventures into stating these things as definate, it's automatically unsafe.

                            I'm just repeating back the evidence, not an opinion, and noting the rather uncontroversial point that 6 minutes is more than 5. You're the one presenting random leaving times as if those are somehow shown to be the case. I'm just showing that the opportunity is there, which is why we can't rule it out.

                            - Jeff

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by JeffHamm View Post

                              Hi Trevor,

                              You do not seem to understand the difference between my saying "The evidence does not preclude them from having moved on at 1:35", which is true and which is what I've been claiming, and someone else saying (because it's not what I've stated): "They did move on at 1:35", which would be unsafe and invalid, and is the point you're arguing against, but exactly the point you're arguing in favour of when you say they moved later, or walked slowly.

                              Also, as I've clearly and unambiguously stated, I too cannot, and do not, suggest concluding the Church Passage Couple were definately not Eddowes and JtR because the evidence does not allow for that conclusion, that would be unsafe. Yet based upon your sole focus on the time of their sightings, you clearly are building upon having drawn that unsafe conclusion, it's not one I have made that's for sure. In fact, as I've clearly said, it is entirely possible that Eddowes and JtR were, in fact, elsewhere and entred Mitre Square via one of the other possible entrances. Why would I present them? Because I'm not stating unsafe things, I'm just trying to narrow down and find the limits of what we know. Unfortunately, we don't know much.

                              You also keep presenting examples where you argue that there might have been as short as 3 minutes as you give the example "1.37 left location-1.38 arrived crime scene-Harvey 1.41 Time 3 mins" in post #850.

                              So you believe that JtR could murder, mutilate Kate's face, open her abdomen, section and remove part of her colon, and damage her internal organs, cut her apron, and flee the scene in 3 minutes.

                              Now, for JtR to also take her uterus and kidney, all that is left for him to do is:
                              1) cut out part of her uterus
                              2) cut out her kidney

                              Those two cuts do not add an appreciable amount of time compared to everything else.

                              And, given you have no basis for that 3 minutes being the actual amount of time JtR had, but you yourself have indicated that's all he needs to do everything but the two cuts I've indicated, and there are still at least an additional 3 minutes of time left unaccounted for, well, I find your argument that JtR did not have enough time already self contradictory. He can, by your own example, and therefore your own belief, murder, mutilate, and flee in 3 minutes. Two additional cuts cannot therefore be argued to require more than all of that. You're example itself indicates JtR had enough time (it doesn't tell us how much that time was, but it tells us he had enough).

                              Personally, though, I think once anyone ventures into stating these things as definate, it's automatically unsafe.

                              I'm just repeating back the evidence, not an opinion, and noting the rather uncontroversial point that 6 minutes is more than 5. You're the one presenting random leaving times as if those are somehow shown to be the case. I'm just showing that the opportunity is there, which is why we can't rule it out.

                              - Jeff
                              The times I have presented are based on the fact that the couple if Eddowes and her killer could have left their standing point at a later time, and to that, we cannot prove or disprove, nor can we prove or disprove the alternative suggestion that they left at 1,35am thus giving the killer the very questionable at least 5 minute window.

                              The later the time they moved off would reduce the time available to the killer so as I keep saying you cannot dismiss my hypothesis because we do not know the conclusive answers as to the correct timings.

                              If you work on the balance of probability when you way up all the other facts regarding organ removals with regards to Chapman and Kelly, adding to that the belief that no organs were taken from Kelly, you are left with only two victims that were missing organs, two victims that were taken to two different mortuaries, with two different medical procedures shown to remove the same organ, two victims whose bodies were left for many hours before the post mortems were carried out.

                              Three Victorian doctors giving three different times for how long it would have taken the killer to remove the same organ, which one was correct?

                              I think all of those points put together make a very strong case in favour of my hypothesis.

                              www.trevormarriott.co.uk

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Trevor Marriott View Post

                                The times I have presented are based on the fact that the couple if Eddowes and her killer could have left their standing point at a later time, and to that, we cannot prove or disprove, nor can we prove or disprove the alternative suggestion that they left at 1,35am thus giving the killer the very questionable at least 5 minute window.

                                The later the time they moved off would reduce the time available to the killer so as I keep saying you cannot dismiss my hypothesis because we do not know the conclusive answers as to the correct timings.

                                If you work on the balance of probability when you way up all the other facts regarding organ removals with regards to Chapman and Kelly, adding to that the belief that no organs were taken from Kelly, you are left with only two victims that were missing organs, two victims that were taken to two different mortuaries, with two different medical procedures shown to remove the same organ, two victims whose bodies were left for many hours before the post mortems were carried out.

                                Three Victorian doctors giving three different times for how long it would have taken the killer to remove the same organ, which one was correct?

                                I think all of those points put together make a very strong case in favour of my hypothesis.

                                www.trevormarriott.co.uk
                                Hi Trevor,

                                Yes, they could have left later, as I've been absolutely clear about, I've been presenting the windows of time which are unaccounted for, which if that isn't clear to you what that means, is "the time windows when we do not know what happened". We do know with some certainty that the couple was spotted +-1 minute 1:34, which is the last known siting of them. And we know that by the time PC Harvey patrols Church Passage around 1:41 the couple has moved on. We do not know when they moved off, so they could have left at anytime during that window, and they could have gone in any direction as well. One possible direction is into Mtire Square, and if we had evidence they did go in that direction that would greatly increase the evidence that they were Eddowes and JtR. As it stands, they could have been Sally and Pete, or Debbie and Bill, and walked off in some other direction, or even gone in different directions. All of those are completely viable alternatives given we don't know. We cannot claim they did not move off just after the last siting (somewhere between 1:33 and 1:35), but we cannot be sure they did either (and I've never once said I was sure they did move off at 1:35 - you just keep misinterpreting my saying they could have as if I'm saying they did for sure and yes, they could have moved off later, we don't know but you seem to refuse to acknowledge they could have moved off as early as 1:33 because you emphasize Lawende's 1:35 time, and you then go on to refuse to acknowledge they could have moved on right after being spotted despite the fact we don't know what happened after they were last spotted).

                                We do know, however, that at some point Eddowes and JtR enter Mitre Square. We also know that they entered and Eddowes was murdered, her throat was cut, her face mutilated, her abdomen cut open, her internal organs damaged, and her colon was sectioned and a portion placed beside her. We know her apron was cut and a piece taken away. We know all of those things take some amount of time, but not exactly how much. We know that two additional cuts may also have been made, one to remove part of the uterus, which also damaged her bowel in the process, and another to remove her kidney. From your experiment we know that from the point of opening the abdomen to the removal of a kidney, a doctor was able to do that in 3 minutes. If we knew how long it took them to get to the kidney we could estimate how much additional time it takes to then remove it. Oddly, now that I think of it, I just realized how critical you are of any recreations presented by others, but how strongly you hold to recreations you like despite them not presenting the really important information. Regardless, 3 minutes for kidney removal, add a few seconds to take a swipe at the uterus such that a good portion is left behind and the bowel is damaged, and that's organs taken care of. Strangulation, throat cutting, and slashes to the face, another minute, and we're looking at something like 4 minutes required (provided, of course JtR wasn't faster than your doctor, which of course you don't know he wasn't).

                                We also know that there are two other entrances to Mitre Square, and that increases our doubt that the Church Passage Couple was Eddowes and JtR (because there are viable alternative entrances after all). And that line of possibility creates far wider windows of unaccounted time because we have no reported sitings of what happened at those entrances other than PC Watkins patrol of the square at 1:30. That larger gap in our knowledge, therefore, creates a wider window within which JtR could be in the process of murder (over 9 minutes of time). And again, that would be far more than enough, given that a doctor, who has far more respect for a corpse than JtR would, can go from opening up the body to kidney removal in just 3 minutes. Even if JtR worked at the slow pace of the doctor in your recreation, there's still plenty of time left unaccounted for (and he's got a kidney too).

                                And, we have modern doctors estimating that as little as 2 minutes would be required, but that's extreme and I think the first estimate they give was 3 minutes, and then said even as little as 2 minutes, so I'll set that 2 minutes aside. We have two doctors, one modern, one contemporary, both suggesting 3 minutes, one contemporary suggesting 5, that's an average of 3 minutes 40 seconds, an estimate that doesn't favor on particular doctor but combines all the evidence to produce a best guess (because picking one particular doctor is, after all, a guess that you picked the right one, averaging combines all the guesses, favoring none of them individually.

                                Basically, the holes in what we know are, in all cases, large enough for things to have happened along the lines that the police and medical experts of the time testify and report they did. We just don't know the fine details, like which entrance they entered in.

                                But since we don't know, of course, anything is possible. But that doesn't make all suggestions equally probable, or make them supported. So while your hypothesis is not disproven, there could have been two organ thieves, there's no need for such speculation, and there's no evidence to support it.

                                - Jeff

                                Comment

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