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  • Well that's that settled. Damn you Jeff, with your sound, reasoned logic!
    Them's the vagaries.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Al Bundy's Eyes View Post
      Well that's that settled. Damn you Jeff, with your sound, reasoned logic!
      Ha ha! No, it's just an example of things getting "lost in transmission". When I say things like "The Church Passage Couple have the opportunity to get to the crime scene by 1:36", it's being interpreted as if I'm saying "I've proved they did get to the crime scene by 1:36", but that is a misinterpretation. If I were to claim that I would be entirely unjustified, for exactly the reasons Trevor presents - we don't know when they left. But, that's exactly why we cannot also say "they didn't arrive at 1:36", because again - we don't know when they left. All we do know is that the evidence we have does not preclude them. Moreover, if we can't rule out the Church Passage Couple, who have the most limiting information with regards to timing (last sighted between 1:33 and 1:35), we most definitely cannot say that there isn't enough time if in fact Eddowes and JtR entered from one of the other two entrances.

      At no point in any of my statements am I saying that the CPC are Eddowes and JtR, nor am I saying they are not Eddowes and JtR. I simply explore both of those options, which is how one has to explore the unknown.

      Personally, I do tend to favor the notion that the CPC were Eddowes and JtR, but only because the CPC are the only couple we have on record as being in the area at the time. However, I'm by no means convinced they must have been Eddowes and JtR. When I first started looking at these things I was trying to decide if the evidence would, in fact, be sufficient to prove they could not be Eddowes and JtR. I was unable to do that because, well, the evidence is what the evidence is. As such, we're left none the wiser - The might have been, they might not have been.

      - Jeff

      Comment


      • Originally posted by JeffHamm View Post

        Hi Trevor,

        Yes, they could have left later, as I've been absolutely clear about, I've been presenting the windows of time which are unaccounted for, which if that isn't clear to you what that means, is "the time windows when we do not know what happened". We do know with some certainty that the couple was spotted +-1 minute 1:34, which is the last known siting of them. And we know that by the time PC Harvey patrols Church Passage around 1:41 the couple has moved on. We do not know when they moved off, so they could have left at anytime during that window, and they could have gone in any direction as well. One possible direction is into Mtire Square, and if we had evidence they did go in that direction that would greatly increase the evidence that they were Eddowes and JtR. As it stands, they could have been Sally and Pete, or Debbie and Bill, and walked off in some other direction, or even gone in different directions. All of those are completely viable alternatives given we don't know. We cannot claim they did not move off just after the last siting (somewhere between 1:33 and 1:35), but we cannot be sure they did either (and I've never once said I was sure they did move off at 1:35 - you just keep misinterpreting my saying they could have as if I'm saying they did for sure and yes, they could have moved off later, we don't know but you seem to refuse to acknowledge they could have moved off as early as 1:33 because you emphasize Lawende's 1:35 time, and you then go on to refuse to acknowledge they could have moved on right after being spotted despite the fact we don't know what happened after they were last spotted).

        We do know, however, that at some point Eddowes and JtR enter Mitre Square. We also know that they entered and Eddowes was murdered, her throat was cut, her face mutilated, her abdomen cut open, her internal organs damaged, and her colon was sectioned and a portion placed beside her. We know her apron was cut and a piece taken away. We know all of those things take some amount of time, but not exactly how much. We know that two additional cuts may also have been made, one to remove part of the uterus, which also damaged her bowel in the process, and another to remove her kidney. From your experiment we know that from the point of opening the abdomen to the removal of a kidney, a doctor was able to do that in 3 minutes. If we knew how long it took them to get to the kidney we could estimate how much additional time it takes to then remove it. Oddly, now that I think of it, I just realized how critical you are of any recreations presented by others, but how strongly you hold to recreations you like despite them not presenting the really important information. Regardless, 3 minutes for kidney removal, add a few seconds to take a swipe at the uterus such that a good portion is left behind and the bowel is damaged, and that's organs taken care of. Strangulation, throat cutting, and slashes to the face, another minute, and we're looking at something like 4 minutes required (provided, of course JtR wasn't faster than your doctor, which of course you don't know he wasn't).

        We also know that there are two other entrances to Mitre Square, and that increases our doubt that the Church Passage Couple was Eddowes and JtR (because there are viable alternative entrances after all). And that line of possibility creates far wider windows of unaccounted time because we have no reported sitings of what happened at those entrances other than PC Watkins patrol of the square at 1:30. That larger gap in our knowledge, therefore, creates a wider window within which JtR could be in the process of murder (over 9 minutes of time). And again, that would be far more than enough, given that a doctor, who has far more respect for a corpse than JtR would, can go from opening up the body to kidney removal in just 3 minutes. Even if JtR worked at the slow pace of the doctor in your recreation, there's still plenty of time left unaccounted for (and he's got a kidney too).

        And, we have modern doctors estimating that as little as 2 minutes would be required, but that's extreme and I think the first estimate they give was 3 minutes, and then said even as little as 2 minutes, so I'll set that 2 minutes aside. We have two doctors, one modern, one contemporary, both suggesting 3 minutes, one contemporary suggesting 5, that's an average of 3 minutes 40 seconds, an estimate that doesn't favor on particular doctor but combines all the evidence to produce a best guess (because picking one particular doctor is, after all, a guess that you picked the right one, averaging combines all the guesses, favoring none of them individually.

        Basically, the holes in what we know are, in all cases, large enough for things to have happened along the lines that the police and medical experts of the time testify and report they did. We just don't know the fine details, like which entrance they entered in.

        But since we don't know, of course, anything is possible. But that doesn't make all suggestions equally probable, or make them supported. So while your hypothesis is not disproven, there could have been two organ thieves, there's no need for such speculation, and there's no evidence to support it.

        - Jeff
        Given the need for organs for research it is entirely possible that based on the facts I have previously presented the organs were removed by two different people but not at the crime scenes.
        and your use of the term thief is over exaggerated given medical personnel were allowed free and unlimited access to organs from the dead In mortuaries.

        www.trevormarriott.co.uk

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Trevor Marriott View Post

          Given the need for organs for research it is entirely possible that based on the facts I have previously presented the organs were removed by two different people but not at the crime scenes.
          and your use of the term thief is over exaggerated given medical personnel were allowed free and unlimited access to organs from the dead In mortuaries.

          www.trevormarriott.co.uk
          They most certainly did not have free and unlimited access to organs from the dead in mortuaries. The anatomy act is absolutely clear on that point, as you know. Bodies that were awaiting post-mortems were specifically stated as off limits. And, permission had to be granted by the doctor in charge of the body. And all sorts of other conditions had to be met. So if two different people took organs, one from Chapman the other from Eddowes, they did not do it legally - it would be organ theft.

          Two, you've presented no evidence there was anyone at all, let alone two independent researchers, doing research on the uterus and one also doing research on kidneys, and both being in such a drastic need of specimens that they would steal them, risking their careers.

          You're belief that anyone could just rock up to a mortuary and take bits from corpses without informing anyone, whether or not that corpse was scheduled for a post-mortem, even if that corpse was a murder victim who was to be examined for legal reasons, is not just unsafe, it is manifestly obviously wrong.

          - Jeff

          Comment


          • Originally posted by JeffHamm View Post

            They most certainly did not have free and unlimited access to organs from the dead in mortuaries. The anatomy act is absolutely clear on that point, as you know. Bodies that were awaiting post-mortems were specifically stated as off limits. And, permission had to be granted by the doctor in charge of the body. And all sorts of other conditions had to be met. So if two different people took organs, one from Chapman the other from Eddowes, they did not do it legally - it would be organ theft.

            Two, you've presented no evidence there was anyone at all, let alone two independent researchers, doing research on the uterus and one also doing research on kidneys, and both being in such a drastic need of specimens that they would steal them, risking their careers.

            You're belief that anyone could just rock up to a mortuary and take bits from corpses without informing anyone, whether or not that corpse was scheduled for a post-mortem, even if that corpse was a murder victim who was to be examined for legal reasons, is not just unsafe, it is manifestly obviously wrong.

            - Jeff
            The reality is that I have made and shown hard facts to support the hypothesis which you nor anyone else cannot disprove despite you continually distorting the facts in an attempt to do so.

            for the killer to have removed the organs in the time you suggest he would have to have had as much if not more skill,knowledge, and expertise As that of Browns experts and how many persons who would have had those skills in 1888?

            of course modern medical experts come up with quick times but they are used to performing these types of removals on a daily basis in a controlled environment not in the dark on a wet pavement. no retractors, no light, blood filled abdomen, come on Jeff get real

            www.trevormarriott.co.uk

            Comment


            • I think you guys need to agree to disagree on this one. Neither of you can do much more to present your arguments, and I can't see either of you persuading the other. Maybe just draw a line under the whole timings business?
              Them's the vagaries.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Trevor Marriott View Post



                he would have to have had as much if not more skill,knowledge, and expertise As that of Browns experts and how many persons who would have had those skills in 1888?

                in the dark on a wet pavement. no retractors, no light, blood filled abdomen

                www.trevormarriott.co.uk
                Hmm? Possibly a surgeon, good with his hands. Renowned for relying on his touch, "feeling his way into a patient"?
                What was Henry's best route to escape Mitre Square?
                Dave?
                Them's the vagaries.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Trevor Marriott View Post

                  The reality is that I have made and shown hard facts to support the hypothesis which you nor anyone else cannot disprove despite you continually distorting the facts in an attempt to do so.

                  for the killer to have removed the organs in the time you suggest he would have to have had as much if not more skill,knowledge, and expertise As that of Browns experts and how many persons who would have had those skills in 1888?

                  of course modern medical experts come up with quick times but they are used to performing these types of removals on a daily basis in a controlled environment not in the dark on a wet pavement. no retractors, no light, blood filled abdomen, come on Jeff get real

                  www.trevormarriott.co.uk
                  Hi Trevor,

                  You've not shown any facts, you've simply voiced your opinion. You've mispresented what was allowed under the Anatomy Act though, which absolutely does not allow for any wholesale anonymous snatch and grab of organs at a mortuary prior to a post-mortem. I don't believe I've distorted anything, unless you define disagreement with your interpretation as distortion. I've simply presented the evidence as it is, from the various times testified to, and so forth and from that pool of evidence I've then viewed the resulting possible scenarios that arise due to our not knowing certain facts and end up concluding we do not know enough to rule one way or the other. You, however, believe you can conclude that the CPC was Eddowes and JtR, and you believe you can conclude what time they moved on into Mitre Square. You've presented, however, no facts to justify those conclusions. My point is, there are no facts to present, which is why we can't draw any conclusion, for or against, which leaves all possible scenarios in play.

                  Anyway, as Al Bundy's Eyes suggests and we just have to agree to disagree. You can believe what you wish, and I'll do the same. There's no obligation for us to believe the same things after all.

                  - Jeff

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Trevor Marriott View Post

                    Given the need for organs for research it is entirely possible that based on the facts I have previously presented the organs were removed by two different people but not at the crime scenes.
                    and your use of the term thief is over exaggerated given medical personnel were allowed free and unlimited access to organs from the dead In mortuaries.

                    www.trevormarriott.co.uk
                    The idea that organs had market value is undeniable, the teaching hospital that claimed someone wanted to buy a uterus the previous year....a claim that was not denied later once it had been brought into an Inquest setting...makes that a reasonable statement. What Im not sure about is why you would immediately presume that the person who cuts the abdomens open in the first place wouldn't haven take them. The time Kates killer needed, by medical opinion, is still available no matter what scenario you believe in...i.e Lawende sighting accurate or not, passage used to enter the square...etc...and there is no other organ extraction murder within the series that puts such a time constraint on the idea that organs were taken on the spot. Annies killer had ample time, so did Marys.
                    Michael Richards

                    Comment


                    • I think any theory of Jack's escape from the square, should take into account any clues we get from the police, including the following.

                      The Echo, Oct 1:

                      THE CONSTABLE'S SUGGESTION.
                      The constable points out that it is decidedly probable that the murderer, hearing his approach, left his ghastly work unfinished, and escaped by either of the narrow courtways above referred to. The murder must have been committed expeditiously and quietly, for the persons living in the house at the back of which the body was found, the policeman and his family, and the watchman (Morris), who was cleaning the warehouse, with the assistance of his son, all agree that no sounds were heard.

                      FURTHER SUGGESTIONS OF THE POLICE.
                      The police are of opinion that the same person murdered both these women. They favour the theory that, being disturbed with his first victim, he left her, and induced the second one to go with him; being disturbed in this case by Constable Watkins just as he was completing his operations. It is suggested that the murderer decoyed the women in selected spots by means of gold which he had taken from the pockets of his previous victims after he had taken their life. Hence the turning out of their pockets. They do not believe the motive of the crimes is robbery. It is further believed that he wears gloves when cutting the poor women to pieces, and he takes these off immediately his work is done.
                      They are virtually admitting here, that the escape was either through the St James's Place passage or Church Passage.

                      We have the following to go on, regarding PC Harvey's most recent visit to the end of Church Passage, before the discovery.

                      The Times, Oct 12:

                      By a juryman. - His beat took him down Church-passage to the end. He was there three or four minutes before he heard the whistle; it was then about 18 or 19 minutes to 2 o'clock.
                      So if Harvey's estimate is quite accurate, he is in the passage in the 1:41-42 period.
                      Even if accurate though, we are seemingly left to wonder if that estimated time is for when at the Mitre Square or Duke St end of the passage.
                      Assume for now it is when returning to the street, and fix Harvey's threshold to Mitre square time to 1:41.
                      Also assume that the pair take a full minute to quietly walk from the passage street entrance, to the murder spot.
                      We should probably also allow another full minute to pass, from the time Lawende and Harris pass the pair, to the pair's departure into the square.
                      As I personally favour the CPC as being Jack and Kate, and also the time given by Lawende for the men leaving the club - 1:35 - that would take us to 1:37, when the pair arrive at the final location.
                      Consequently, Jack has just 4 minutes to murder and eviscerate Eddowes, and that is almost definitely not enough time.

                      More time must be found!

                      Given that at 1:41, there is still 3 minutes until Watkins returns to the square, we have to find a way for Jack to make use of this 3 minutes.
                      Other than running the huge risk of being spotted by Harvey, when staying with the body, there is really only one way these 3 minutes can be utilized...

                      Click image for larger version  Name:	17Mitre_Square_1888_detaill_CB_with_hiding_loc_vision.jpg Views:	0 Size:	93.2 KB ID:	733652

                      Jack has to temporarily hide from PC Harvey, in the entranceway to the square.
                      I know this suggestion has been made before, but I see no other way of allowing Jack enough time to do what he does.
                      As soon as Jack either hears Harvey's footsteps, or sees the light of his lantern, he must retreat a few metres to behind the corner of the Taylor & Co. building, and stay there until Harvey walks back up the passage, to an audibly safe distance from the body.
                      This might cost Jack up to another minute, but still gives him about 1 minute 45 seconds to 2 minutes 15 seconds extra, until being forced to exit the square, owing to the audible approach of Watkins.
                      Hiding in this location would be relatively safe.
                      It would be very unlikely for Harvey to be able to spot Jack, peaking around the corner of the building.
                      If Harvey continues to walk toward Eddowes (because he sees her), Jack can simply walk out of the square.
                      If footsteps approach from along Mitre street, Jack is closer to that exit, hardly any further from Church Passage, and might hear the footsteps slightly earlier.

                      If the following is fairly accurate, Jack probably leaves via Church Passage.

                      The Star, Oct 1:

                      Mrs. Lindsay, who occupies the two front rooms of 11, Duke-street - almost opposite Church-passage, leading to the court - records a strange circumstance, which may or may not have a direct bearing upon the murder. She says that she is a very light sleeper, and is easily awakened by hearing any unusual noise. Early on Sunday morning she says - at what hour she could not specify - she heard the sound of one or two voices in the street below. Prompted by curiosity she looked out of the window just in time to hear a man's voice say, "I am not the murderer," uttered apparently in a tone of anger. Surprised on hearing the words, she called her husband, who, with her, saw a man disappearing down the street towards Aldgate. As he passed beneath a lamp she was able to discern that he was a man of average height, dressed in dark clothes, and carrying in his hand an umbrella and a small parcel.
                      East London Observer, Oct 6:

                      Similarly [to Berner street], Morris, the night watchman of the warehouses in Mitre-square; Pearce, the constable who was sleeping in the house just opposite the scene of the murder; Mr. Levy, the caretaker of the Great Synagogue just by the square; Mr. Klapp, the caretaker of some other premises whose windows look on the scene of the crime; Mr. Carle, the manager of the club in St. James'-place; Mr. Ayres and Mr. W. Isaacs, also of St. James'-place; or Mr. S. Goldberg, of Duke-street, who were all awake at the time, heard no suspicious sound - no cry for help whatever.
                      "I am not the Murderer."
                      But Mrs. Lindsay, of Duke-street, who is also corroborated by her husband, and Miss Solomon, of the same street, gives an account of an extraordinary incident, stating, as she does, that she was awakened during the night by hearing voices in the street below, and on looking out of the window heard the words distinctly uttered by a man who carried an umbrella and a parcel, and who was rapidly hurrying away "I am not the murderer."
                      Let's refer to this event as the Lindsay/Solomon (L/S) sighting.
                      Note that in both quotes, the man carries an umbrella.
                      Not only would this be useful for it's normal purpose, but a couple seen walking under an umbrella, would likely look a lot less suspicious than they otherwise might - they would look like partners, more than a soliciting woman with a customer.

                      Here's a list of advantages of this scenario:
                      • Jack has ~2 minutes extra with the body
                      • Exit from Church Passage is probably quite safe, as Harvey is now away from it
                      • It is compatible with the L/S sighting
                      • The L/SS has a man with an umbrella, which allow the pair to evade police suspicion, if seen walking together toward the passage entrance
                      • Exit from Church Passage is probably the safest and definitely the most direct route to Goulston street
                      Attached Files
                      Last edited by NotBlamedForNothing; 03-24-2020, 01:48 PM.
                      Andrew's the man, that is not blamed for nothing

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by NotBlamedForNothing View Post
                        I think any theory of Jack's escape from the square, should take into account any clues we get from the police, including the following.

                        The Echo, Oct 1:



                        They are virtually admitting here, that the escape was either through the St James's Place passage or Church Passage.

                        We have the following to go on, regarding PC Harvey's most recent visit to the end of Church Passage, before the discovery.

                        The Times, Oct 12:



                        So if Harvey's estimate is quite accurate, he is in the passage in the 1:41-42 period.
                        Even if accurate though, we are seemingly left to wonder if that estimated time is for when at the Mitre Square or Duke St end of the passage.
                        Assume for now it is when returning to the street, and fix Harvey's threshold to Mitre square time to 1:41.
                        Also assume that the pair take a full minute to quietly walk from the passage street entrance, to the murder spot.
                        We should probably also allow another full minute to pass, from the time Lawende and Harris pass the pair, to the pair's departure into the square.
                        As I personally favour the CPC as being Jack and Kate, and also the time given by Lawende for the men leaving the club - 1:35 - that would take us to 1:37, when the pair arrive at the final location.
                        Consequently, Jack has just 4 minutes to murder and eviscerate Eddowes, and that is almost definitely not enough time.

                        More time must be found!

                        Given that at 1:41, there is still 3 minutes until Watkins returns to the square, we have to find a way for Jack to make use of this 3 minutes.
                        Other than running the huge risk of being spotted by Harvey, when staying with the body, there is really only one way these 3 minutes can be utilized...

                        Click image for larger version Name:	17Mitre_Square_1888_detaill_CB_with_hiding_loc_vision.jpg Views:	0 Size:	93.2 KB ID:	733652

                        Jack has to temporarily hide from PC Harvey, in the entranceway to the square.
                        I know this suggestion has been made before, but I see no other way of allowing Jack enough time to do what he does.
                        As soon as Jack either hears Harvey's footsteps, or sees the light of his lantern, he must retreat a few metres to behind the corner of the Taylor & Co. building, and stay there until Harvey walks back up the passage, to an audibly safe distance from the body.
                        This might cost Jack up to another minute, but still gives him about 1 minute 45 seconds to 2 minutes 15 seconds extra, until being forced to exit the square, owing to the audible approach of Watkins.
                        Hiding in this location would be relatively safe.
                        It would be very unlikely for Harvey to be able to spot Jack, peaking around the corner of the building.
                        If Harvey continues to walk toward Eddowes (because he sees her), Jack can simply walk out of the square.
                        If footsteps approach from along Mitre street, Jack is closer to that exit, hardly any further from Church Passage, and might hear the footsteps slightly earlier.

                        If the following is fairly accurate, Jack probably leaves via Church Passage.

                        The Star, Oct 1:



                        East London Observer, Oct 6:



                        Let's refer to this event as the Lindsay/Solomon (L/S) sighting.
                        Note that in both quotes, the man carries an umbrella.
                        Not only would this be useful for it's normal purpose, but a couple seen walking under an umbrella, would likely look a lot less suspicious than they otherwise might - they would look like partners, more than a soliciting woman with a customer.

                        Here's a list of advantages of this scenario:
                        • Jack has ~2 minutes extra with the body
                        • Exit from Church Passage is probably quite safe, as Harvey is now away from it
                        • It is compatible with the L/S sighting
                        • The L/SS has a man with an umbrella, which allow the pair to evade police suspicion, if seen walking together toward the passage entrance
                        • Exit from Church Passage is probably the safest and definitely the most direct route to Goulston street
                        Well thought out but there is one drawback., and that is if the killer was still with the body of Eddowes when he saw and heard Pc Harvey coming towards him would he have had the nerve to sit it out as you suggest? Because having seen and heard Harvey coming directly towards him how was he to know that Harvey was not going to continue his forward movement into the square and walk straight to him. The line of sight would be in favour of the killer and not Pc Harvey

                        Just ask yourself what would you have done in that same situation, mine would be to distance my self from the body as quick as possible.



                        www.trevormarriott.co.uk

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Trevor Marriott View Post

                          Well thought out but there is one drawback., and that is if the killer was still with the body of Eddowes when he saw and heard Pc Harvey coming towards him would he have had the nerve to sit it out as you suggest? Because having seen and heard Harvey coming directly towards him how was he to know that Harvey was not going to continue his forward movement into the square and walk straight to him. The line of sight would be in favour of the killer and not Pc Harvey

                          Just ask yourself what would you have done in that same situation, mine would be to distance my self from the body as quick as possible.



                          www.trevormarriott.co.uk
                          Trevor,
                          this bit:

                          Jack has to temporarily hide from PC Harvey, in the entranceway to the square.
                          I know this suggestion has been made before, but I see no other way of allowing Jack enough time to do what he does.
                          As soon as Jack either hears Harvey's footsteps, or sees the light of his lantern, he must retreat a few metres to behind the corner of the Taylor & Co. building, and stay there until Harvey walks back up the passage, to an audibly safe distance from the body.


                          In the picture, Jack is the lower blue dot, and Harvey is the dot at the point the passage runs into the square.
                          The adjoining line represents the line of sight.

                          An assumption I should have made explicit, is that Harvey either sees nothing in the location the body lies, or he sees something indistinct, but just carries on with his beat.
                          The later would sort of be understandable from a psychological PoV, because Harvey might see his beat as the secondary line of defense in MS - it basically being Watkins responsibility.
                          I recall reading something about Harvey seeing something, but can't locate it right now.
                          Andrew's the man, that is not blamed for nothing

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by NotBlamedForNothing View Post

                            Trevor,
                            this bit:

                            Jack has to temporarily hide from PC Harvey, in the entranceway to the square.
                            I know this suggestion has been made before, but I see no other way of allowing Jack enough time to do what he does.
                            As soon as Jack either hears Harvey's footsteps, or sees the light of his lantern, he must retreat a few metres to behind the corner of the Taylor & Co. building, and stay there until Harvey walks back up the passage, to an audibly safe distance from the body.


                            In the picture, Jack is the lower blue dot, and Harvey is the dot at the point the passage runs into the square.
                            The adjoining line represents the line of sight.

                            An assumption I should have made explicit, is that Harvey either sees nothing in the location the body lies, or he sees something indistinct, but just carries on with his beat.
                            The later would sort of be understandable from a psychological PoV, because Harvey might see his beat as the secondary line of defense in MS - it basically being Watkins responsibility.
                            I recall reading something about Harvey seeing something, but can't locate it right now.
                            Harvey enters Chuch Passage via Aldgate at that point there is a street lamp. There is a second street lamp outside Kearley and Tonge. As he is walking down that lamp would be shining in his eyes, so he would not be able to see anything or anybody ahead of him. When he got to the entrance to the square it would take a few moments for him to adjust his eyes back into the darkness of the square.

                            The line of sight from my map indicates how much time the killer would have had to escape when first saw and heard Harvey coming towards him

                            And as I have stated many times I do not belive the killer had sufficient time to do all that he is purported to have done

                            www.trevormarriott.co.uk

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by NotBlamedForNothing View Post
                              I think any theory of Jack's escape from the square, should take into account any clues we get from the police, including the following.

                              The Echo, Oct 1:



                              They are virtually admitting here, that the escape was either through the St James's Place passage or Church Passage.

                              We have the following to go on, regarding PC Harvey's most recent visit to the end of Church Passage, before the discovery.

                              The Times, Oct 12:



                              So if Harvey's estimate is quite accurate, he is in the passage in the 1:41-42 period.
                              Even if accurate though, we are seemingly left to wonder if that estimated time is for when at the Mitre Square or Duke St end of the passage.
                              Assume for now it is when returning to the street, and fix Harvey's threshold to Mitre square time to 1:41.
                              Also assume that the pair take a full minute to quietly walk from the passage street entrance, to the murder spot.
                              We should probably also allow another full minute to pass, from the time Lawende and Harris pass the pair, to the pair's departure into the square.
                              As I personally favour the CPC as being Jack and Kate, and also the time given by Lawende for the men leaving the club - 1:35 - that would take us to 1:37, when the pair arrive at the final location.
                              Consequently, Jack has just 4 minutes to murder and eviscerate Eddowes, and that is almost definitely not enough time.

                              More time must be found!

                              Given that at 1:41, there is still 3 minutes until Watkins returns to the square, we have to find a way for Jack to make use of this 3 minutes.
                              Other than running the huge risk of being spotted by Harvey, when staying with the body, there is really only one way these 3 minutes can be utilized...

                              Click image for larger version Name:	17Mitre_Square_1888_detaill_CB_with_hiding_loc_vision.jpg Views:	0 Size:	93.2 KB ID:	733652

                              Jack has to temporarily hide from PC Harvey, in the entranceway to the square.
                              I know this suggestion has been made before, but I see no other way of allowing Jack enough time to do what he does.
                              As soon as Jack either hears Harvey's footsteps, or sees the light of his lantern, he must retreat a few metres to behind the corner of the Taylor & Co. building, and stay there until Harvey walks back up the passage, to an audibly safe distance from the body.
                              This might cost Jack up to another minute, but still gives him about 1 minute 45 seconds to 2 minutes 15 seconds extra, until being forced to exit the square, owing to the audible approach of Watkins.
                              Hiding in this location would be relatively safe.
                              It would be very unlikely for Harvey to be able to spot Jack, peaking around the corner of the building.
                              If Harvey continues to walk toward Eddowes (because he sees her), Jack can simply walk out of the square.
                              If footsteps approach from along Mitre street, Jack is closer to that exit, hardly any further from Church Passage, and might hear the footsteps slightly earlier.

                              If the following is fairly accurate, Jack probably leaves via Church Passage.

                              The Star, Oct 1:



                              East London Observer, Oct 6:



                              Let's refer to this event as the Lindsay/Solomon (L/S) sighting.
                              Note that in both quotes, the man carries an umbrella.
                              Not only would this be useful for it's normal purpose, but a couple seen walking under an umbrella, would likely look a lot less suspicious than they otherwise might - they would look like partners, more than a soliciting woman with a customer.

                              Here's a list of advantages of this scenario:
                              • Jack has ~2 minutes extra with the body
                              • Exit from Church Passage is probably quite safe, as Harvey is now away from it
                              • It is compatible with the L/S sighting
                              • The L/SS has a man with an umbrella, which allow the pair to evade police suspicion, if seen walking together toward the passage entrance
                              • Exit from Church Passage is probably the safest and definitely the most direct route to Goulston street
                              Hi NBFN,

                              Ok, so we're starting with the assumption that the Church Passage Couple (CPC) is actually Eddowes and JtR. That is, of course, not proven, but there is some evidence that points to that conclusion. However, we have to keep in mind that already we're building upon an unproven point, and if we've made the wrong choice at that point, everything that follows is invalid (meaning, if the CPC <> Eddowes & JtR then everything else we conclude is invalidated). You've been clear that you're working from that assumption though, so I won't belabour that point. However, each time we make an assumption, our conclusion becomes more and more tenuous.

                              In the end, you've come up with 4 minutes and conclude more time must be found, and suggest the idea that JtR goes around the corner towards Mitre Street, and then returns to the body, which accesses approximately 3 minutes of additional time before PC Watkin's patrol, which would provide the more time you suggest is required. It also would open up Church Passage as a viable escape route (and that also fits with the simulations I presented in the first post of this thread; Church Passage is really only a viable option after PC Harvey has exited from there).

                              I want to point to a couple of points, though. First, are you sure 4 minutes isn't enough time? We have both contemporary medical opinion (Dr. Sequeria) and some modern medical experts (posted earlier in this thread), that have suggested 3 minutes, one even going so far as to suggest 2 minutes, were required. Your 4 minutes exceeds, therefore, the lower limits of the range of times we have to consider. On the other hand, your 4 minutes is less than the longest estimate of time required, which is "5 minutes, maybe more" type thing. That means, to conclude there definitely isn't enough time is to overstate things unless a 2nd assumption is made, which is that the longest estimate is the correct one. Note, working with the entire range is not making the assumption that the lower estimates are correct, only acknowledging that the time you've got falls within the range that needs to be considered.

                              The next issue is the time at which the CPC were spotted. Lawende and Levy both testify that they got up to leave the club at 1:30, but they both estimate they waited a bit before doing so. Lawende estimated they were 5 minutes (making the sighting at 1:35), which is the time you're working with. However, Levey estimated they waited 3 or 4 minutes, which means we have to consider the sighting as occurring between 1:33 and 1:35. If your 3rd assumption, that Lawende's 5 minutes is the correct one, is wrong, then the 4 minutes you've calculated is too short by as much as 2 minutes (so you already have as much as 6 minutes).

                              Next, you've made the assumption that the CPC wait for a minute after Lawende, Levey, and Harris pass them. The problem is, once they pass the CPC we don't know what the CPC did. That's when the clock starts ticking with respect to how much time is available (note, that's not to say they must have moved on right away, it's only pointing out that that is the beginning of the time at which they could have moved on - it's a very subtle, but important distinction). If the assumption that they waited a minute is wrong, and they waited less than that, then as much as another minute gets added to your time - so as much as 7 minutes is now available.

                              You also made the assumption that it required the CPC a minute to walk from the end of Church Passage to the murder site. The distance is about 163 feet according to the map I posted a little while ago. The average walking speed is 3.1 mph, and at that speed it would take 36 seconds to traverse that distance, providing an additionl 24 seconds. A PC on patrol was expected to conduct their patrol at about 2.5 mph (which is why you'll see descriptions like "the slow tread of a PC", etc), and at that speed 44 seconds would be required, increasing your time by 16 seconds - admittedly not much, but given you're conclusion is that more time needs to be found, even these small additions become important. In order to take a full minute to walk that distance, the CPC would have to be travelling at about 1.85 mph, which would be unnaturally slow. So the maximum possible time available is probably between 7 minutes 16 seconds to 7 minutes 24 seconds, which you could get to simply by making a different assumption from the same set of data at each of the junctions above.

                              And to be absolutely clear here, I'm not saying those assumptions are any more correct than the ones you've made - we don't know the correct choice at each of those decision points. Therefore, all we can do is look at the ranges we come to by exploring all of the different choices. And if by doing so, we find that the maximum time available is still less than the minimum time required, then we could conclude "more time has to be found". But if the maximum time available exceeds the minimum time required, then we cannot draw that conclusion safely.

                              There are some other points that are worth considering as well. Trevor's point that the lamps would interfere with PC Harvey's ability to see into the square is entirely correct. The other thing that we do not know is where PC Harvey's patrol of Church Passage ended. In your figure you've placed him at the blue dot next to the gas lamp, but if that triangular section was considered part of Mitre Square, and PC Harvey's beat to the end of Church Passage terminated at the "C" in Church Passage, or even at the point where he could view down the alley behind K&T (so around the start of the word Passage on the map), then the chances of PC Harvey being able to see anything at the murder location drops even further. That bit of unknown information, though, would work to support your access to the additional 3 minutes (so you're now in excess of 10 minutes for the maximum amount of time potentially available).

                              However, as Trevor points out, it runs counter to reason that once JtR made it to the safety of Mitre Street (when he hides around the corner), that he would return to the body, particularly as Morris at some point opens the door to sweep up. Suddenly, there's a lot of activity in the square, any of which would spook JtR to flee out of self preservation. And given the 4 minutes you arrived at was based upon making a certain collection of assumptions while simply making a different set of assumptions expands that to over 7 minutes, do you really need to argue that such a highly unlikely behaviour occurred?

                              Just some things to consider.

                              - Jeff


                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by JeffHamm View Post

                                Ok, so we're starting with the assumption that the Church Passage Couple (CPC) is actually Eddowes and JtR. That is, of course, not proven, but there is some evidence that points to that conclusion. However, we have to keep in mind that already we're building upon an unproven point, and if we've made the wrong choice at that point, everything that follows is invalid (meaning, if the CPC <> Eddowes & JtR then everything else we conclude is invalidated). You've been clear that you're working from that assumption though, so I won't belabour that point. However, each time we make an assumption, our conclusion becomes more and more tenuous.
                                Agreed, but I'm not so sure it is an assumption.
                                Well, it is an assumption in the strict sense, but I think it far from an arbitrary one.
                                We get huge hints from the following snippet - Evening News, Oct 9:

                                On the Sunday morning of the murder, between 1.30 and 1.40, three of the members [...] left the club. They then noticed a couple - man and woman - standing by the iron post of the small passage that leads to Mitre square. They have no doubt themselves that this was the murdered woman and her murderer. And on the first blush of it the fact is borne out by the police having taken exclusive care of Mr. Joseph Levander, to a certain extent having sequestrated him and having imposed a pledge on him of secrecy. They are paying all his expenses, and one if not two detectives are taking him about. One of the two detectives is Foster. Mr. Henry Harris, of the two gentlemen our representative interviewed, is the more communicative. He is of opinion that neither Mr. Levander nor Mr. Levy saw anything more than he did, and that was only the back of the man. Mr. Joseph Levy is absolutely obstinate and refuses to give us the slightest information. He leaves one to infer that he knows something, but that he is afraid to be called on the inquest. Hence he assumes a knowing air. The fact remains, however, that the police, in imposing their idiotic secrecy, have a allowed a certain time to elapse before making the partial description these three witnesses have been able to give public, and thus prevent others from acting upon the information in the event of the murderer coming under their notice.
                                Why the lack of doubt, if the men supposedly got such a poor view of him?
                                Why all the secrecy, and coyness with the press?
                                This is no mere possible sighting - it is the real deal.

                                In the end, you've come up with 4 minutes and conclude more time must be found, and suggest the idea that JtR goes around the corner towards Mitre Street, and then returns to the body, which accesses approximately 3 minutes of additional time before PC Watkin's patrol, which would provide the more time you suggest is required. It also would open up Church Passage as a viable escape route (and that also fits with the simulations I presented in the first post of this thread; Church Passage is really only a viable option after PC Harvey has exited from there).

                                I want to point to a couple of points, though. First, are you sure 4 minutes isn't enough time? We have both contemporary medical opinion (Dr. Sequeria) and some modern medical experts (posted earlier in this thread), that have suggested 3 minutes, one even going so far as to suggest 2 minutes, were required. Your 4 minutes exceeds, therefore, the lower limits of the range of times we have to consider. On the other hand, your 4 minutes is less than the longest estimate of time required, which is "5 minutes, maybe more" type thing. That means, to conclude there definitely isn't enough time is to overstate things unless a 2nd assumption is made, which is that the longest estimate is the correct one. Note, working with the entire range is not making the assumption that the lower estimates are correct, only acknowledging that the time you've got falls within the range that needs to be considered.
                                I understand your points, but consider this little gem from the Irish Times, Oct 1:

                                The police theory is that the man and woman who had [m]et in Aldgate watched the policeman pass round this square and then they entered it. Whilst the woman lay on the ground her throat was cut as described above, causing instant death. The murderer then hurriedly proceeded to mutilate the body, for the wounds, though so ghastly, do not appear to have been caused so skilfully and deliberately as is the case of the murder of Annie Chapman in Hanbury street. Five minutes, some of the doctors think [plural - did Brown seek a 2nd opinion?], would have sufficed for the completion of the murderers work, and he was then enabled to leave the ground before the return of the policeman on duty [presumably Watkins]. None of the policemen on duty this morning appeared to have had particular attention drawn to the man and woman together. This appears strange at first, when it is remarked that within the last few weeks the police have been keeping a particularly keen watch upon suspicious couples. The murderer probably avoided much blood staining, and leaving the square by either of the courts he would be able to pass quickly away through the narrow thoroughfare without exciting observation. But one of the most extraordinary incidents in connection with the crime is that not the slightest scream or noise was heard. A watchman is employed at one of the warehouses in the square, and in a direct line, but a few yards away on the other side of the square, a city policeman was sleeping. Many people would be about in the immediate neighbourhood even at this early hour making preparations for the market which takes place every Sunday in Middlesex (formerly Petticoat lane) and the adjacent thoroughfares. Taking everything into account therefore, the murder must be pronounced one of extraordinary daring and brutality.
                                The police are virtually telling us what happened!
                                The man & woman were seen together, but it was only realized who they were, in hindsight.
                                To some extent, proving the need for more time, becomes redundant - Jack almost definitely left the square through Church Passage, after Harvey leaves it.

                                Will discuss time issues more in next post...

                                There are some other points that are worth considering as well. Trevor's point that the lamps would interfere with PC Harvey's ability to see into the square is entirely correct. The other thing that we do not know is where PC Harvey's patrol of Church Passage ended. In your figure you've placed him at the blue dot next to the gas lamp, but if that triangular section was considered part of Mitre Square, and PC Harvey's beat to the end of Church Passage terminated at the "C" in Church Passage, or even at the point where he could view down the alley behind K&T (so around the start of the word Passage on the map), then the chances of PC Harvey being able to see anything at the murder location drops even further. That bit of unknown information, though, would work to support your access to the additional 3 minutes (so you're now in excess of 10 minutes for the maximum amount of time potentially available).
                                In one sense, where Harvey stops is something of a moot point - Jack can't predict where, nor can he be sure what Harvey would be able to see from that point.
                                So Jack is surely going to hide when he notices Harvey in the passage.

                                However, as Trevor points out, it runs counter to reason that once JtR made it to the safety of Mitre Street (when he hides around the corner), that he would return to the body, particularly as Morris at some point opens the door to sweep up. Suddenly, there's a lot of activity in the square, any of which would spook JtR to flee out of self preservation. And given the 4 minutes you arrived at was based upon making a certain collection of assumptions while simply making a different set of assumptions expands that to over 7 minutes, do you really need to argue that such a highly unlikely behaviour occurred?
                                I would not refer to the hiding location as being on Mitre street (if that's what you meant).
                                It is just out of the square proper, in the entranceway, or entrance stub, of the square.
                                In that position, Jack is just a scant few metres from both the street, and the body, and only slightly further from Church Passage than when at the body location.
                                So options are open, including more time with the body.
                                From a game type point of view, it is the perfect 'play'.

                                As mentioned, will get back to times, but for now will conclude; I regard this behaviour as very smart, and very compatible with the strong hints we get from the police, and therefore not highly unlikely at all.
                                Andrew's the man, that is not blamed for nothing

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