Jack's Escape from Mitre Square

[JeffHamm]

Hi Jeff
Excellent analysis but of course the stumbling block is not knowing what time the couple left the location where they were seen standing to enter the square it could have been 1.36/1.37. or as late as 1.38 any of thse times would effect the time the killer would have had with the victim in Mitre Square.

I concur with you that the killer was disturbed by Pc harvey coming dwn the passage, the killer would have been able to see and hear him coming long before Harvey would have been able to see into the square, and i belive like you he headed north

www.trevormarriott.co.uk

Hi Trevor,

Thanks. Indeed, we don't know when the CPC left their location, or even if they are Eddowes and JtR in the first place! Obviously if they were not Eddowes and JtR, then it doesn't matter when they left. But, since we don't know what time they left, all we can do is determine if there was sufficient time available to make it possible, and there is, even in the most restrictive reading of the testimony. As such, they remain worthy of consideration, but that doesn't mean people shouldn't explore other ideas as well.

- Jeff

[Trevor Marriott]

Hi all,

Ok, I've just been pondering some ideas and thought it might be time to share them. What I'll present below involves a fair bit of "filling in the blanks" about Eddowes' movements. Also, for the sake of this post, I'm considering the Church Passage Couple to be Eddowes and JtR, but I want to emphasize that is by no means a sure thing. Rather, I'm just seeing how things looks if we start with that. Also, I'm doing the same when I suggest Eddowes was headed to St. Bolotph's Church and meets JtR there. It's just a speculative idea and I want to see what happens if we consider it as a possibility. Finally, while the times and speeds I present will look very specific, that's just because maths will do that. Obviously, there are margins of error to consider, so don't put too much into the seconds portions of the times, I'm just presenting the math results, and can't be bothered to round to nearest minutes, etc. Reality has more variability than maths, so if you get easily offended by overly precise numbers being presented, I suggest you skip this post. And I repeat, they are only that precise because I can't be bothered rounding.

Finally, and to repeat myself, I'm not saying the following is proof of what happened, rather, it's just an examination to see if the following was possible.

So, to start, I've been having a bit of a look at PC Watkin's and PC Harvey's beats and their testimonies.

Here's PC Watkin's beat:

And he testifies that normally takes him between 12 and 14 minutes to complete. At the time, the regulation patrol speed was 2.5 mph (which works out to be 220 feet per minute). To complete that beat (2760 feet) in 12 minutes would be a patrol speed of 2.61 mph (235 feet/minute) and 14 minutes equates to 2.24 mph (197 feet/minute). Effectively, that looks like PC Watkins patrolling around the regulated speed with an acceptable range in variation. For the patrol we're most interested in, he took 14 minutes, so that patrol was on the slow side, but not so much that he's really off the target speed.

PC Harvey's beat was this:

And at 2.5 mph, that should take 13 minutes 4 seconds to complete. However, PC Harvey testifies he checked his time at the post office (just under the / in the yellow box) at 1:28, and when he heard Morris' whistle (1:44 ish), he had just reached Mitre Street and was heading back towards Duke Street. That's 16 minutes, and he's not completed a full circuit yet (he had only covered roughly 2668 feet in 16 minutes, which makes for a patrol speed of 1.89 mph, or 166 feet/min). This is a bit on the slow side. Also, he testifies that he had patrolled Church Passage about 3 or 4 minutes prior to hearing the whistle, and from the Mitre Square end of Church Passage to just after rounding at Mitre Street, is about 525 feet. At 1.89 mph, that would require 3 minutes 9 seconds, which fits with his testimony well enough (obviously, if I measure from when he enters Church Passage it means a bit more distance, and therefore time, and if he was a bit further along Aldgate towards Duke from where I chose, that also adds a bit of time, etc), but in the end, what we get is PC Harvey in the vicinity of where he testifies and at about the time he says he got there. At that speed, what should take about 13 minutes would take 17 minutes and 18 seconds.

Now, Eddowes had been realsed from the police around 1:00 am, and was seen heading towards Houndsditch (though we don't know for sure if she went down Houndsditch, let's work with the idea she did, and ends up at St. Botolph's Church, known as the prostitutes' church as they walked around it looking for customers).

That would be the following route:

And at an average walking speed (3.1 mph, or 273 feet/min), that would take her 7 minutes 11 seconds. At a patrol speed (2.5 mph) that would be 8 minutes 55 seconds. That means, if that was where she was heading when she left the police station, should would arrive somewhere around 1:10 if she went there directly. That's 18 minutes prior to PC Harvey's check at the post office clock, and if his previous circuit was also at the slow end, he's in the vicinity of the post office when Eddowes would have arrived. If she doesn't arrive until later, that just means PC Harvey would be going up Houndsditch as she was coming down. In other words, there seems to be a good chance that PC Harvey may have encountered Eddowes, at least in passing on Houndsditch. He doesn't, however, ever testify to seeing her, and that should be kept in mind here (as in Eddowes may have headed over to Bevis Mark and took up a position at Church Passage rather than continue down Houndsditch to St. Botolph's Church).

Now, that aside, the distance from the church to the entrance of Church Passage is about 380 feet, which at an average walking pace would take 1 minute 24 seconds to traverse. PC Harvey testifies he saw no suspicious characters on his patrol, so we know the Church Passage Couple wasn't there on his pass prior to 1:28, nor were they there when he later patrols at 1:41. It's also very close to a reasonable location to consider Eddowes being, and where she might have encountered JtR. If they headed that way just after PC Harvey passed the post office, they would reach Church Passage just before Lawende et al get up to leave the club, being in position to be spotted as they waited out the rain for 3-5 minutes.

From the Duke Street end of Church Passage to the crime scene is a distance of about 150 feet, and at an average walking pace, that takes 33 seconds to traverse. Using the latest sighting of the CPC (1:35) means the earliest time they could reach the crime location is 1:35:33 (please excuse how precise these numbers are, I'll let you round them as you see fit), which is 5 minutes and 27 seconds before the earliest time that PC Harvey patrols Church Passage and most likely JtR freezes and leaves at that time.

At 1:41 - 1:42, based upon his patrol speed, we can estimate where PC Watkins was, which is here:

And as we can see, if JtR were to flee out into Mitre Street and head north, he'll be out of view of PC Watkins by the time he rounds into the bottom of Mitre Street.

We have Blenkinsop's testimony that there were "people about" in St. James Place, so it is possible JtR went north and out through there, though that feels a bit odd to me. He would be circling the area of the crime, which doesn't put distance between himself and the danger zone.

Rather, if Watkins was at the 1:41 position, then the distance to the bottom of Mitre Street is 337 feet, which at 2.24 mph (his patrol speed) would require 1 minute 42 seconds. And if JtR leaves Mitre Square at no more than an average walking speed (3.1 mph), by the time PC Watkins rounds into Mitre Street (blue dot), JtR could get to roughly here (red dot):

Obviously, he could make other turns and such, but this route is directly away from the crime scene and is avoiding populated areas, like St. James Place.

Anyway, as I say, there are lots of unproven points in this, and I'm not saying all of this must have happened. But, it is one possible scenerio that fits much of the testimony. My biggest concern is that PC Harvey and Eddowes would have crossed paths, and I would think PC Harvey would have taken note, either of her coming down Houndsditch, or if he saw her in the company of a man around the Church (around 1:28). Those are, of course, the most speculative ideas in this, so feel free to disregard if it's just a bit too much.

But, with regards to the topic of this thread (Jack's escape), over the course of this discussion I've become much more in favour of out through Mitre Street then north.

- Jeff

Hi Jeff
Excellent analysis but of course the stumbling block is not knowing what time the couple left the location where they were seen standing to enter the square it could have been 1.36/1.37. or as late as 1.38 any of thse times would effect the time the killer would have had with the victim in Mitre Square.

I concur with you that the killer was disturbed by Pc harvey coming dwn the passage, the killer would have been able to see and hear him coming long before Harvey would have been able to see into the square, and i belive like you he headed north

https://www.trevormarriott.co.uk

[JeffHamm]

Even cramped is sufficent to cast a major doubt

www.trevormarriott.co.uk

Hi Trevor,

There's always the need to doubt any interpretation because in order to interpret we have to fill in ideas we cannot prove. But, given that the most restrictive reading of the testimonies is not sufficient to rule it out, then it remains a viable option that has to be considered.

- Jeff

[JeffHamm]

Hi all,

Ok, I've just been pondering some ideas and thought it might be time to share them. What I'll present below involves a fair bit of "filling in the blanks" about Eddowes' movements. Also, for the sake of this post, I'm considering the Church Passage Couple to be Eddowes and JtR, but I want to emphasize that is by no means a sure thing. Rather, I'm just seeing how things looks if we start with that. Also, I'm doing the same when I suggest Eddowes was headed to St. Bolotph's Church and meets JtR there. It's just a speculative idea and I want to see what happens if we consider it as a possibility. Finally, while the times and speeds I present will look very specific, that's just because maths will do that. Obviously, there are margins of error to consider, so don't put too much into the seconds portions of the times, I'm just presenting the math results, and can't be bothered to round to nearest minutes, etc. Reality has more variability than maths, so if you get easily offended by overly precise numbers being presented, I suggest you skip this post. And I repeat, they are only that precise because I can't be bothered rounding.

Finally, and to repeat myself, I'm not saying the following is proof of what happened, rather, it's just an examination to see if the following was possible.

So, to start, I've been having a bit of a look at PC Watkin's and PC Harvey's beats and their testimonies.

Here's PC Watkin's beat:

And he testifies that normally takes him between 12 and 14 minutes to complete. At the time, the regulation patrol speed was 2.5 mph (which works out to be 220 feet per minute). To complete that beat (2760 feet) in 12 minutes would be a patrol speed of 2.61 mph (235 feet/minute) and 14 minutes equates to 2.24 mph (197 feet/minute). Effectively, that looks like PC Watkins patrolling around the regulated speed with an acceptable range in variation. For the patrol we're most interested in, he took 14 minutes, so that patrol was on the slow side, but not so much that he's really off the target speed.

PC Harvey's beat was this:

And at 2.5 mph, that should take 13 minutes 4 seconds to complete. However, PC Harvey testifies he checked his time at the post office (just under the / in the yellow box) at 1:28, and when he heard Morris' whistle (1:44 ish), he had just reached Mitre Street and was heading back towards Duke Street. That's 16 minutes, and he's not completed a full circuit yet (he had only covered roughly 2668 feet in 16 minutes, which makes for a patrol speed of 1.89 mph, or 166 feet/min). This is a bit on the slow side. Also, he testifies that he had patrolled Church Passage about 3 or 4 minutes prior to hearing the whistle, and from the Mitre Square end of Church Passage to just after rounding at Mitre Street, is about 525 feet. At 1.89 mph, that would require 3 minutes 9 seconds, which fits with his testimony well enough (obviously, if I measure from when he enters Church Passage it means a bit more distance, and therefore time, and if he was a bit further along Aldgate towards Duke from where I chose, that also adds a bit of time, etc), but in the end, what we get is PC Harvey in the vicinity of where he testifies and at about the time he says he got there. At that speed, what should take about 13 minutes would take 17 minutes and 18 seconds.

Now, Eddowes had been realsed from the police around 1:00 am, and was seen heading towards Houndsditch (though we don't know for sure if she went down Houndsditch, let's work with the idea she did, and ends up at St. Botolph's Church, known as the prostitutes' church as they walked around it looking for customers).

That would be the following route:

And at an average walking speed (3.1 mph, or 273 feet/min), that would take her 7 minutes 11 seconds. At a patrol speed (2.5 mph) that would be 8 minutes 55 seconds. That means, if that was where she was heading when she left the police station, should would arrive somewhere around 1:10 if she went there directly. That's 18 minutes prior to PC Harvey's check at the post office clock, and if his previous circuit was also at the slow end, he's in the vicinity of the post office when Eddowes would have arrived. If she doesn't arrive until later, that just means PC Harvey would be going up Houndsditch as she was coming down. In other words, there seems to be a good chance that PC Harvey may have encountered Eddowes, at least in passing on Houndsditch. He doesn't, however, ever testify to seeing her, and that should be kept in mind here (as in Eddowes may have headed over to Bevis Mark and took up a position at Church Passage rather than continue down Houndsditch to St. Botolph's Church).

Now, that aside, the distance from the church to the entrance of Church Passage is about 380 feet, which at an average walking pace would take 1 minute 24 seconds to traverse. PC Harvey testifies he saw no suspicious characters on his patrol, so we know the Church Passage Couple wasn't there on his pass prior to 1:28, nor were they there when he later patrols at 1:41. It's also very close to a reasonable location to consider Eddowes being, and where she might have encountered JtR. If they headed that way just after PC Harvey passed the post office, they would reach Church Passage just before Lawende et al get up to leave the club, being in position to be spotted as they waited out the rain for 3-5 minutes.

From the Duke Street end of Church Passage to the crime scene is a distance of about 150 feet, and at an average walking pace, that takes 33 seconds to traverse. Using the latest sighting of the CPC (1:35) means the earliest time they could reach the crime location is 1:35:33 (please excuse how precise these numbers are, I'll let you round them as you see fit), which is 5 minutes and 27 seconds before the earliest time that PC Harvey patrols Church Passage and most likely JtR freezes and leaves at that time.

At 1:41 - 1:42, based upon his patrol speed, we can estimate where PC Watkins was, which is here:

And as we can see, if JtR were to flee out into Mitre Street and head north, he'll be out of view of PC Watkins by the time he rounds into the bottom of Mitre Street.

We have Blenkinsop's testimony that there were "people about" in St. James Place, so it is possible JtR went north and out through there, though that feels a bit odd to me. He would be circling the area of the crime, which doesn't put distance between himself and the danger zone.

Rather, if Watkins was at the 1:41 position, then the distance to the bottom of Mitre Street is 337 feet, which at 2.24 mph (his patrol speed) would require 1 minute 42 seconds. And if JtR leaves Mitre Square at no more than an average walking speed (3.1 mph), by the time PC Watkins rounds into Mitre Street (blue dot), JtR could get to roughly here (red dot):

Obviously, he could make other turns and such, but this route is directly away from the crime scene and is avoiding populated areas, like St. James Place.

Anyway, as I say, there are lots of unproven points in this, and I'm not saying all of this must have happened. But, it is one possible scenerio that fits much of the testimony. My biggest concern is that PC Harvey and Eddowes would have crossed paths, and I would think PC Harvey would have taken note, either of her coming down Houndsditch, or if he saw her in the company of a man around the Church (around 1:28). Those are, of course, the most speculative ideas in this, so feel free to disregard if it's just a bit too much.

But, with regards to the topic of this thread (Jack's escape), over the course of this discussion I've become much more in favour of out through Mitre Street then north.

- Jeff

[Trevor Marriott]

Hi Meet Ze Monster,

Apparently strangulation to the point of unconsciousness doesn't take all that long, in the vicinity of 20-30 seconds, so it's a bit, but not much, time. Also, it's not clear that the various doctor's estimates of time required (3 to 5+ minutes are the typical times given) omit that phase, but even if they do, it's still in the margin of error. We also don't know for sure that JtR did strangle Eddowes, though the lack of noise is suggestive that he silenced her in some way.

And, the time line is tight, but it sort of has to be, given that without considering anything else, PC Watkins patrol was only 14 minutes. That alone makes it tight. Given we know they showed up after 1:30 (Watkins previous patrol) and JtR was gone by 1:44 (when he found the body), it's a matter of finding 3-5 ish minutes during which the murder could take place. There is such a window, even if we cut the leaving time to be around 1:41 (when PC Harvey patrols Church Passage), and even if we assume the Church Passage Couple was Eddowes and JtR and they were spotted at 1:35 as Lawende estimates (rather than 1:33 as suggested by Leve). That's a 6 minute window, which is the narrowest it gets from the testimony, and that is longer than the 5+ minutes required (which is the longest estimate required). Therefore, the shortest window unaccounted for is longer than the most amount of time required (as testified to), so the evidence does not indicate it wasn't possible.

And, don't forget, those are the testimonies that make it hardest to fit it in. If Leve's time is right, we have an additional 2 minutes, and if PC Harvey patrolled Church Passage at 1:42, that's another miinute (now up to 9 minutes availabe), and if the crime required closer to 3 minutes than 5, then it's easier to fit it in, etc.

Basically, the most constraining reading of the testimonies doesn't shrink the time unaccounted for by enough to make it impossible - although it does get awfully cramped.

- Jeff

Even cramped is sufficent to cast a major doubt

https://www.trevormarriott.co.uk

[JeffHamm]

This Mitre Sq. timeline is very baffling. It seems that most agree there was between 5 and 10 minutes for JtR to carry out his deed, but the question that keeps popping into my mind is; whatever the timeline, Jack needed to likely strangle poor Kate before he began his knife work, meaning the time to subdue somebody in that fashion has to be factored into the very tight schedule. The cutting and organ removal process alone my have been achieved in the agreed upon time, but surely (a) Kate would have acted in self defense, at least a little (b) required time to fully subdue by hand, assuming Jack always used this method (c) time needed to retrieve uterus and kidney and arrange entrails as well as Kate's personal possessions (d) make excessive and intricate facial lacerations (e) cut apron section and make escape before being seen at all. Something about this whole timeline feels a little too tight for comfort.

Hi Meet Ze Monster,

Apparently strangulation to the point of unconsciousness doesn't take all that long, in the vicinity of 20-30 seconds, so it's a bit, but not much, time. Also, it's not clear that the various doctor's estimates of time required (3 to 5+ minutes are the typical times given) omit that phase, but even if they do, it's still in the margin of error. We also don't know for sure that JtR did strangle Eddowes, though the lack of noise is suggestive that he silenced her in some way.

And, the time line is tight, but it sort of has to be, given that without considering anything else, PC Watkins patrol was only 14 minutes. That alone makes it tight. Given we know they showed up after 1:30 (Watkins previous patrol) and JtR was gone by 1:44 (when he found the body), it's a matter of finding 3-5 ish minutes during which the murder could take place. There is such a window, even if we cut the leaving time to be around 1:41 (when PC Harvey patrols Church Passage), and even if we assume the Church Passage Couple was Eddowes and JtR and they were spotted at 1:35 as Lawende estimates (rather than 1:33 as suggested by Leve). That's a 6 minute window, which is the narrowest it gets from the testimony, and that is longer than the 5+ minutes required (which is the longest estimate required). Therefore, the shortest window unaccounted for is longer than the most amount of time required (as testified to), so the evidence does not indicate it wasn't possible.

And, don't forget, those are the testimonies that make it hardest to fit it in. If Leve's time is right, we have an additional 2 minutes, and if PC Harvey patrolled Church Passage at 1:42, that's another miinute (now up to 9 minutes availabe), and if the crime required closer to 3 minutes than 5, then it's easier to fit it in, etc.

Basically, the most constraining reading of the testimonies doesn't shrink the time unaccounted for by enough to make it impossible - although it does get awfully cramped.

- Jeff

[Meet Ze Monster]

This Mitre Sq. timeline is very baffling. It seems that most agree there was between 5 and 10 minutes for JtR to carry out his deed, but the question that keeps popping into my mind is; whatever the timeline, Jack needed to likely strangle poor Kate before he began his knife work, meaning the time to subdue somebody in that fashion has to be factored into the very tight schedule. The cutting and organ removal process alone my have been achieved in the agreed upon time, but surely (a) Kate would have acted in self defense, at least a little (b) required time to fully subdue by hand, assuming Jack always used this method (c) time needed to retrieve uterus and kidney and arrange entrails as well as Kate's personal possessions (d) make excessive and intricate facial lacerations (e) cut apron section and make escape before being seen at all. Something about this whole timeline feels a little too tight for comfort.

[MrBarnett]

Or he lived/worked locally for a long time,moved out and just came back to do his deeds.

Why? What tells you he was more than an occasional visitor?

[Abby Normal]

Abby, the bolt hole was through your neck, don't you know?

lol! good one

[Scott Nelson]

the apron wasnt there the first time long came around, so methinks the ripper went back to his bolt hole after eddowes, cleaned up, dropped off goodies and knife and grabbed some chalk and headed to goulston street.

Abby, the bolt hole was through your neck, don't you know?

[Varqm]

Or he lived/worked locally for a long time,moved out and just came back to do his deeds.

[MrBarnett]

hi gary
the apron wasnt there the first time long came around, so methinks the ripper went back to his bolt hole after eddowes, cleaned up, dropped off goodies and knife and grabbed some chalk and headed to goulston street. an hour to do this sounds about right. any further away than about a twenty minute walk and the apron and grafitti wouldnt have been there by the time long came around the second time.

Hi Abby,

Apologies, my post was badly phrased. It’s the other stuff about his having an intimate knowledge of local streets, police beats and prostitute movements that I don’t see.

Gary

[Juniper4576]

I do think that yes he was a local lad that could simply disappear into one shadow and come out of another.

I also think that his 'bolt hole' was one of the many communities in the area; which he was one of. I'm not trying to indicate a particular one, or saying that for example he was helped with washing his hands and clean up, but they could assist with making him simply disappear.

Abby, or another thought, his bolt hole was the very one he was delivering his 'trophies' too...

Jim

[Abby Normal]

What makes you think that, Abby? I see nothing to suggest it.

hi gary
the apron wasnt there the first time long came around, so methinks the ripper went back to his bolt hole after eddowes, cleaned up, dropped off goodies and knife and grabbed some chalk and headed to goulston street. an hour to do this sounds about right. any further away than about a twenty minute walk and the apron and grafitti wouldnt have been there by the time long came around the second time.

[MrBarnett]

bingo. he knew those streets and alley ways like the back of his hand, the movements and habits of the local prostitutes and the police activities and beats. this was obviously a local street smart man. with a bolt hole probably within a fifteen to twenty minute walk from goulston st as evidenced by the circs surrounding the night of the double event.

What makes you think that, Abby? I see nothing to suggest it.