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Jack's Escape from Mitre Square

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  • Trevor Marriott
    replied
    Originally posted by JeffHamm View Post

    Hi Bolo,

    Dr. Sequeria (sp?), also at the crime scene, gives an estimate of 3 minutes required, so there's variation offered there as well (as there will be on just about anything estimates are made for - they are, after all, estimates). Anyway, that aside, there are two events that happen before PC Watkins returns at 1:44, both of which one needs to consider. First, PC Harvey patrols Church Passage (but not into Mitre Square), and that was around 1:41. Also, the fellow in the warehouse (whose name escapes me at the moment), was cleaning up and opened the door to sweep the dust out and he says he did this a couple (or was it a few) minutes before Watkins arrives and ran to him for help. It's hard to know exactly when that happens, but it sounds similar to the time of Harvey's patrol, so which came first is unclear.

    Anyway, either of those events would, in all probability, have alerted JtR as to activity in the area, and he is likely to have fled at the first opportune moment after that, and unlikely to do any more cutting, save perhaps the cutting of the apron I suppose. While we can't prove that's the case and one could argue it's possible he stuck around to continue mutilating, and fled just before Watkins arrival, I tend to think the safer bet is that he fled at or near to, 1:41 (PC Harvey's patrol of Church Passage). That narrows the time by 3 minutes. It is still 7 by your estimate, which is more than 5, just by a smaller margin. It expands to 8 minutes if we go with Leve's time of 1:33 rather than his 1:34 (he said they waited 3 or 4 minutes after 1:30) and shrinks to 6 if we go with Lawende's time of 1:35. Even the narrowest window (6 minutes) is longer than the longest estimate 5 minutes) required, although that 5 minutes was presented as "5 minutes or more", but how much more is unclear. Combined with the shorter 3 minute estimate given by Dr. S, I think dealing with between 3-5 minutes a safe range, though not everyone agrees with me of course, and you are not beholden to either.

    - Jeff
    I dont think even a modern day surgeon could do all of that in 3 mins let alone 5, and I think he was probabaly referring to the murder and the mutilations when he said that because the organs were not found to be missing when he gave that quote the same for Sequeira.

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  • JeffHamm
    replied
    Originally posted by bolo View Post
    Dr Gordon Brown concluded that it took the murderer about 5 minutes to kill and mutilate Eddowes. If the Church Passage couple was indeed Kate and Jack and they were seen at 1.34am, there was a time window of about 10 minutes before PC Watkins re-entered Mitre Square at around 1.44am and found the body.

    The time window may have gotten slightly smaller if the couple was not Kate and Jack but given Dr Brown's estimate, there still was enough time for what the killer had in mind.

    I think that is the closest we can get to the timing of the events on that night. If he knew about Watkins' beat, his safest bet probably would have been to escape via Church Passage to Duke Street and then back to the East End.
    Hi Bolo,

    Dr. Sequeria (sp?), also at the crime scene, gives an estimate of 3 minutes required, so there's variation offered there as well (as there will be on just about anything estimates are made for - they are, after all, estimates). Anyway, that aside, there are two events that happen before PC Watkins returns at 1:44, both of which one needs to consider. First, PC Harvey patrols Church Passage (but not into Mitre Square), and that was around 1:41. Also, the fellow in the warehouse (whose name escapes me at the moment), was cleaning up and opened the door to sweep the dust out and he says he did this a couple (or was it a few) minutes before Watkins arrives and ran to him for help. It's hard to know exactly when that happens, but it sounds similar to the time of Harvey's patrol, so which came first is unclear.

    Anyway, either of those events would, in all probability, have alerted JtR as to activity in the area, and he is likely to have fled at the first opportune moment after that, and unlikely to do any more cutting, save perhaps the cutting of the apron I suppose. While we can't prove that's the case and one could argue it's possible he stuck around to continue mutilating, and fled just before Watkins arrival, I tend to think the safer bet is that he fled at or near to, 1:41 (PC Harvey's patrol of Church Passage). That narrows the time by 3 minutes. It is still 7 by your estimate, which is more than 5, just by a smaller margin. It expands to 8 minutes if we go with Leve's time of 1:33 rather than his 1:34 (he said they waited 3 or 4 minutes after 1:30) and shrinks to 6 if we go with Lawende's time of 1:35. Even the narrowest window (6 minutes) is longer than the longest estimate 5 minutes) required, although that 5 minutes was presented as "5 minutes or more", but how much more is unclear. Combined with the shorter 3 minute estimate given by Dr. S, I think dealing with between 3-5 minutes a safe range, though not everyone agrees with me of course, and you are not beholden to either.

    - Jeff

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  • bolo
    replied
    Dr Gordon Brown concluded that it took the murderer about 5 minutes to kill and mutilate Eddowes. If the Church Passage couple was indeed Kate and Jack and they were seen at 1.34am, there was a time window of about 10 minutes before PC Watkins re-entered Mitre Square at around 1.44am and found the body.

    The time window may have gotten slightly smaller if the couple was not Kate and Jack but given Dr Brown's estimate, there still was enough time for what the killer had in mind.

    I think that is the closest we can get to the timing of the events on that night. If he knew about Watkins' beat, his safest bet probably would have been to escape via Church Passage to Duke Street and then back to the East End.

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  • JeffHamm
    replied
    Here's the patrol with him doubling back to cover the NW face of St. James Place, just in case anyone is interested.

    - Jeff Click image for larger version

Name:	PCWatkinsPatrol2.jpg
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  • JeffHamm
    replied
    Originally posted by Trevor Marriott View Post

    There is no way you can accurately determine the time it took for Watkins to exit the square because we first of all cannot say exactly how fast he was walking. We do no know if he was he checking properties in the square all of which would have impacted on his exit time.

    www.trevormarriott.co.uk
    Hi Trevor,

    It depends on what you mean by accurately, as it can be used in different ways. If you mean the exact amount of time, then no, we can't. However, if one takes accurate to mean an estimate that is within a reasonable margin of error, then yes we can because we have enough information to make an informed estimate. That's why I use the qualifier of "about 1 minute 30 seconds" when I first presented the time rather than state it as a definite. I apologize if I overlooked the qualifier in parts of the post making it appear I was using the first definition. If I did, I'll state it again here that the times are all estimated times, and so that means there will be some degree of error.

    For those who want to know how I made those estimates, so you can decide for yourself if you think they are sufficient to consider, here's how I did it. We know his patrol route (see the diagram in the first post, or the more detailed one below). We know how long it took him to complete it (14 minutes by his testimony for the circuit of importance, but he also says it normally takes him 12-14 minutes, so this particular time around was on the slower end, probably due to the rain if I had to guess). Anyway, if we know the distance and the time required to travel it, we can estimate his average walking speed. We can compare our estimate with the regulations of the day which was a walking speed of around 2.5 mph (which would require 11 minutes 45 seconds to complete the route below, and 14 minutes would be at 2.1 mph). Note, also the regulation speed is slower than the average walking speed for people in general, which is around 3.1 mph. I can't recall who on the boards posted the info on the regs, but it was covered in a thread previously. Anyway, PC Watkins stated patrol time of 14 minutes combined with his known patrol route, fits with him patrolling at regulation speed, which I take as indicating the values I'm getting are reasonable. So, based upon the average patrol speed I obtained for his entire route, I estimate how long it would take him to cover the circumference of Mitre Square, and that works out to be in the vicinity of 1 minute 30 seconds to walk around the square. I based that using the figure in the first post, and noted that it was more than a minute, and less than two. Using the more detailed maps below, and basing it on 2.1 mph (his average patrol speed on this circuit), it actually works out to be about 1 minute 40 seconds. Mind you, I left out the NW edge of St. Jame's Place, and if he has to cover that too, that the route increases to 2796 feet and so a 2.5 mph would require 12 minutes and 42 seconds, so 12 minutes becomes a touch faster (about 2.65 mph) and 14 minutes a touch slower (2.275 mph).

    Now, that being said, nobody walks at a constant speed the whole time, and there will be parts of his patrol that take longer and parts that take less time. This is why if one defines accuracy as the exact real amount of time he took is beyond our ken. However, we don't know if Mitre Square is of the former or latter, so our best estimate has to be derived from his average patrol speed, which is what I'm presenting. While he may have taken a little more or less time, it will still be in the vicinity of 1.5 minutes. For example, if he patrolled Mitre Square (303 feet) at 2.5 mph (220 feet / minute), it would take him 1 minute 24 seconds, and if he sped up to 2.8 mph (246.4 feet/min), it would only take him about 1 minute 15 seconds, and if he had slowed down there due to the rain, to say 1.8 mph (158.4 feet/min), it would be just shy of 2 minutes. I have no idea which of those one could justify using, though, as they are getting into specifics we don't have, hence I use the average walking speed of his patrol.

    Obviously, I can't say it would be impossible for him to have skipped Mitre Square on the previous patrol, or say he didn't run about the square in 20 seconds, or that he hung out there and didn't even do his patrol because he was JtR and was busy at the time (ok, I think we can rule that one out), but without evidence to suggest his testimony is wrong, then we work with what he said. And, from what he said, the values I get line up with regulation speeds, and also with the fact that his patrol time of 14 minutes, which is on his long side, is also at a slightly slower than regulation pace, and so I think we can make estimates that have useful information for us. While we can debate the various specific speeds, somewhere in the vicinity of 1.5 minutes for his patrol seems to me to be an estimate based upon what we know, with perhaps +- 20 seconds being a useful band in terms of margin of error.

    Anyway, for those who feel what I've done is not sufficient to consider what I've presented as an accurate estimate of his time required, then that's fine too.

    Click image for larger version

Name:	PCWatkinsPatrol.jpg
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    - Jeff

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  • Trevor Marriott
    replied
    Originally posted by JeffHamm View Post

    It would take him about 1 minute 30 seconds to walk around the square (police patrols were at a slower pace than typical walking speed). I mapped out his patrol route and, based upon his testimony of 14 minutes to complete the circuit, worked out how far along he could get each minute (it's shown on a map on the first post of this thread, though it's a bit cluttered and can be hard to read, sorry). And going around the circumference of Mitre Squiare would be about 1.5 minutes, So, if he entered at 1:30, he exited about 1:31:30, not 1:30:30. Only a minute, but minutes count in this situation.

    Also, we have no evidence there were any couples on Mitre Street, which means entering from that side is entirely speculation simply because it is possible. However, I see the idea is they watched from Algate, but then they have to walk up into Mitre Square from Algate, which would take another minute on top of PC Watkin's exit time, so we're now at 1:32:30, which is also close enough to the start of the unaccounted time window for the CPC (Leve's time).

    So, while that doesn't make it impossible, it does put it on the low end of ranking likely entry points. In contrast, we do have a couple at Church Passage, with a weak identification of the woman as being Eddowes, and we also know that PC Harvey does not report a couple there when he later patrols Church Passage. While not definitive, it does place Church Passage as the most evidenced (weak though that evidence may be). We also have a newspaper report that place people in St. James Place, though we know nothing more about those people (were they all men? Were any of them couples? don't know, and we do have a statement that nobody when into Mitre Square from that direction (though of course, one could argue that they just weren't noticed). Still, we know St. James has people in it, and we can only assume Mitre Square did. My final point is that, given Lawende et al waited at the club for the rain to let up before heading home, it seems improbable to me that a couple, intending to engage in intimate activities, would not also wait out the rain, or at least, choose a more sheltered location that was available (either Church Passage itself, or the covered passage into St. James; both of which would be suitable for JtR's purpose as well.

    So, given all of that, given Lawende and Leve's statements allow for us to estimate when the rain ended (around 1:33 - 1:35), and we know Mitre Square was patrolled around 1:30, and probably occupied by PC Watkins until around 1:31:30 ish, and requiring about a minute to get from Algate to Mitre Square (1:32:30), the probability that Eddowes and JtR entered Mitre Square much before 1:33 from any direction is very low, but not impossible. Yes, they could have entered while the rain was still coming down hard enough to result in Lawende et al to wait, but that seems unlikely to me. If it seems more probable to you, that's fine, it's an inference, and we draw different ones. In a way, you're expanding the time available even more.

    My objective in these musings is just to determine how wide the unaccounted time window actually is, and so, I suppose, I could ignore the rain aspect of it, and the unaccounted for time starts from PC Watkin's exit of the square for entry from St. James, around 1:32:30 from Algate, and the CPC more on as early as 1:33. I just feel a bit uncomfortable ignoring the rain as people seeking shelter during a heavy rain is pretty typical human behaviour and I think that needs to be considered here.

    - Jeff
    There is no way you can accurately determine the time it took for watkins to exit the square because we first of all cannot say exactly how fast he was walking. We do no know if he was he checking properties in the square all of which would have impacted on his exit time.

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  • JeffHamm
    replied
    Originally posted by Scott Nelson View Post
    I still don't understand what your point is. All I'm suggesting is that the Ripper and Eddowes enter the square from Mitre Street after they see Watkins exit and walk up Mitre Street ahead of them. So, if Watkins was in the Square for about, say 30 seconds, then he leaves at 1:30:30.
    It would take him about 1 minute 30 seconds to walk around the square (police patrols were at a slower pace than typical walking speed). I mapped out his patrol route and, based upon his testimony of 14 minutes to complete the circuit, worked out how far along he could get each minute (it's shown on a map on the first post of this thread, though it's a bit cluttered and can be hard to read, sorry). And going around the circumference of Mitre Squiare would be about 1.5 minutes, So, if he entered at 1:30, he exited about 1:31:30, not 1:30:30. Only a minute, but minutes count in this situation.

    Also, we have no evidence there were any couples on Mitre Street, which means entering from that side is entirely speculation simply because it is possible. However, I see the idea is they watched from Algate, but then they have to walk up into Mitre Square from Algate, which would take another minute on top of PC Watkin's exit time, so we're now at 1:32:30, which is also close enough to the start of the unaccounted time window for the CPC (Leve's time).

    So, while that doesn't make it impossible, it does put it on the low end of ranking likely entry points. In contrast, we do have a couple at Church Passage, with a weak identification of the woman as being Eddowes, and we also know that PC Harvey does not report a couple there when he later patrols Church Passage. While not definitive, it does place Church Passage as the most evidenced (weak though that evidence may be). We also have a newspaper report that place people in St. James Place, though we know nothing more about those people (were they all men? Were any of them couples? don't know, and we do have a statement that nobody when into Mitre Square from that direction (though of course, one could argue that they just weren't noticed). Still, we know St. James has people in it, and we can only assume Mitre Square did. My final point is that, given Lawende et al waited at the club for the rain to let up before heading home, it seems improbable to me that a couple, intending to engage in intimate activities, would not also wait out the rain, or at least, choose a more sheltered location that was available (either Church Passage itself, or the covered passage into St. James; both of which would be suitable for JtR's purpose as well.

    So, given all of that, given Lawende and Leve's statements allow for us to estimate when the rain ended (around 1:33 - 1:35), and we know Mitre Square was patrolled around 1:30, and probably occupied by PC Watkins until around 1:31:30 ish, and requiring about a minute to get from Algate to Mitre Square (1:32:30), the probability that Eddowes and JtR entered Mitre Square much before 1:33 from any direction is very low, but not impossible. Yes, they could have entered while the rain was still coming down hard enough to result in Lawende et al to wait, but that seems unlikely to me. If it seems more probable to you, that's fine, it's an inference, and we draw different ones. In a way, you're expanding the time available even more.

    My objective in these musings is just to determine how wide the unaccounted time window actually is, and so, I suppose, I could ignore the rain aspect of it, and the unaccounted for time starts from PC Watkin's exit of the square for entry from St. James, around 1:32:30 from Algate, and the CPC more on as early as 1:33. I just feel a bit uncomfortable ignoring the rain as people seeking shelter during a heavy rain is pretty typical human behaviour and I think that needs to be considered here.

    - Jeff
    Last edited by JeffHamm; 02-11-2021, 09:10 AM.

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  • Joshua Rogan
    replied
    Hmm. Seems a bit of a wasted effort letting them testify then. And especially holding back Lawende's description of the man. Unless they came to believe this only later?
    What's the evidence for the police believing that Eddowes came to Mitre Square from Aldgate via Mitre Street?

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  • Scott Nelson
    replied
    Ultimately, yes.

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  • Joshua Rogan
    replied
    Originally posted by Scott Nelson View Post
    The City Police theory was that they watched Watkins leave the Square from Aldgate before entering themselves. Rain or no rain doesn't appear to be a factor.
    Are you saying that the City police didn't believe that Lawende, Levy and Harris saw Eddowes on Duke Street at the entrance to Church Passage?

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  • Juniper4576
    replied
    We keep going on about the Police beats and how Jack new them, I think the prostitutes knew too; they knew how long they could be in a certain location for and which were more diligent in their duties. They were streetwise too, and by streetwise I mean they knew the pattern of life, even at that time of night. Jack didn't hide in the shadows or calmly walk away, he knew how to walk into somewhere and come out somewhere completely different

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  • Scott Nelson
    replied
    I still don't understand what your point is. All I'm suggesting is that the Ripper and Eddowes enter the square from Mitre Street after they see Watkins exit and walk up Mitre Street ahead of them. So, if Watkins was in the Square for about, say 30 seconds, then he leaves at 1:30:30.

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  • JeffHamm
    replied
    Originally posted by Scott Nelson View Post

    Why not? The City Police theory was that they watched Watkins leave the Square from Aldgate before entering themselves. Rain or no rain doesn't appear to be a factor.
    Well, PC Watkins said he patrolled at 1:30, and if that's the time he entered, it would take a minute and a half to do so and exit, so if 1:31:30 is much before, then I stand corrected. I suppose if his stated time is when he left the square, then we have 3 minutes, which in this case is significant

    - Jeff
    Last edited by JeffHamm; 02-10-2021, 08:25 PM.

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  • Scott Nelson
    replied
    Originally posted by JeffHamm View Post

    Anyway, I'm not arguing that the CPC were Eddowes and JtR, only suggesting that it seems improbable for Eddowes and JtR to have entered Mitre Square much before 1:33-1:35 from any direction.
    Why not? The City Police theory was that they watched Watkins leave the Square from Aldgate before entering themselves. Rain or no rain doesn't appear to be a factor.

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  • JeffHamm
    replied
    Originally posted by Juniper4576 View Post
    Hi Jeff

    Stepping away that Kate was on her way to meet someone, i agree with you.

    I'm tending to believe that she headed towards St. B's knowing that she more chance of picking someone up at that time.

    On Jacks front, if he did kill Liz Stride, he also knew that St. B's was the place to go that time of night to get what he wanted.

    I think Jack was extremely streetwise and he was aware of the boundary and possibly played this to his advantage, he also knew how to get around by use of the yards, shadows and alleys too.

    Jim
    I would suspect any local would know where the boundary between the police forces were, at least roughly. I think JtR was opportunistic with respect to victims, so tend to think he didn't plan the where all that much, rather just roamed the streets checking areas he figured he had a good chance to find a victim. I agree with you on him being streetwise. He probably spent a lot of time out and about at night and knew all the streets and alleyways, that would be pretty typical behaviour and knowledge for serial murderers. I also suspect he frequented prostitutes regularly, and so knew how to talk to them to quickly come to an agreement while keeping them on their ease.

    Hmmm, thinking more on the St. B's meeting place, I suppose JtR could have headed past there, then up Houndsditch and met Eddowes on her way down from the police station. The interesting implication being, pending on where this hypothetical meeting takes place, the closest entrance to Mitre Square shifts to the St. James passage. Although, there are newspaper reports where a watchman in St. James states he didn't notice anyone going or coming from Mitre Square through that passage, he does indicate there were people about. We don't know if those "people" included a couple, and given his watch wasn't for the square per se, it's possible people could have gone through without him noticing. This might be worth playing with a bit, but there are a lot of assumptions that have to be made, so it becomes more of an exploratory idea of possibilities without really being able to narrow them down.

    - Jeff

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