Originally posted by Tom_Wescott
View Post
Ages ago I had a play with that sort of idea. It's a very simplistic analysis, and so results in a larger area than one would end up with if applying a more sophisticated approach, but it is probably good enough for general purposes.
What I did was take the time from the likely time JtR leaves Mitre Square (around the time PC Harvey patrols Church Passage, so around 1:41 ish type thing), and the time the apron piece is found in Goulston Street by PC Long. I then worked out the distance JtR could travel over that interval at a normal walking pace (3.2 mph). I start JtR at Mitre Square, head him out in all directions until he reaches a distance from Goulston Street that would require the remaining time for him to get there. All distances are just "as the crow flies", which of course overestimates how far he could actually get. Also, I didn't give him any time at his destination (the longer you presume JtR stays at his "bolt hole" to clean up, the smaller the area would get).
I just plotted a circle around Goulston street (the actual shape would be slightly oval) to crudely plot this maximum area, and it looks like this:
Basically, given the time between the murder and the discovery of the apron by PC Long, the range that JtR could cover to get to a bolt hole is pretty large.
If one believes Stride is a victim of JtR, then I think the locations near Berner Street can probably be considered less probable (I think one would expect him to go straight home at that point if he lived near Berner Street). It also seems to me (and this is of course pure speculation), that if his intention of going back out to drop the apron piece was to misdirect the police, then the vector from Mitre Square to Goulston would be one pointing in a wrong direction, but when he's come back out, he's also likely to want to avoid approaching Mitre Square, where he would expect police activity. As such, I tend to favour areas to the North or North West, but given that's all based upon speculating as to his decision making, I'm not suggesting anyone has to agree with me on that.
Of course, if one believes he spent a fair bit of time cleaning up before going out, the area shrinks accordingly. Coupled with my thinking above, I think the one "suspect" that it sort of fits with (and I'm not suspect oriented), is the Stake Out on Windsor Street mentioned in the Times on Oct 2nd ("...At about the time when the Mitre-square murder was being committed two of the extra men who had been put on duty were in Windsor-street, a thoroughfare about 300 yards off, engaged, pursuant to their instructions, in watching certain houses, it being thought possible that the premises might be resorted to at some time by the murderer....").
But, of course, that location was being watched at the time and nobody was seen entering/leaving that spot, so despite how it sort of fits with my impressions, it appears that's not it. Sigh.
Anyway, as I say, the above is a very crude version, but it suggests that the "where" would most likely be "in there" somewhere, with the search area shrinking towards Goulston street the longer you presume JtR stays inside cleaning up before he re-emerges.
I have a vague memory of having done a slightly better version, but it may be I was just planning on doing it and never got around to it.
- Jeff
Leave a comment: