Lechmere validity

[JeffHamm]

hi Jeff
thanks! as it stands though apparently no one else notices anyone about, and I believe another poster had previously raised this point also. It seems a little odd as all the other murder scenes seem to have witnesses, police, etc noticing other people about and possible suspects. no?

Yes, there are potential witnesses at all the other murder scenes. This one, however, there are aren't, and that is what has to be explained.

So, given the evidence we have, somehow JtR has to get out of there unseen, and also Lechmere/Cross and Paul have to get out of the area without seeing PC Neil. Given the rough estimates of the position of PC Neil, likely to be in one of the streets north of Buck's Row when Lechmere/Cross and Paul exit, it's looking like that is possible for pretty much all the beat variations, and given PC Neil's testimony that he noted PC Thain passing the far end of Buck's Row, we also know that someone on the lookout could have spotted/become aware of Lechmere/Paul at the same point, which would lead to JtR fleeing the scene. Working out where PC Neil was at that time, then will provide us with constraints on potential routes of escape from the area that result in JtR not being seen by PC Neil. And given the number of possible routes out of the area, that will be entirely possible I suspect. And those possible exits routes could be informative.

- Jeff

[Abby Normal]

Yes, there are potential witnesses at all the other murder scenes. This one, however, there are aren't, and that is what has to be explained.

So, given the evidence we have, somehow JtR has to get out of there unseen, and also Lechmere/Cross and Paul have to get out of the area without seeing PC Neil. Given the rough estimates of the position of PC Neil, likely to be in one of the streets north of Buck's Row when Lechmere/Cross and Paul exit, it's looking like that is possible for pretty much all the beat variations, and given PC Neil's testimony that he noted PC Thain passing the far end of Buck's Row, we also know that someone on the lookout could have spotted/become aware of Lechmere/Paul at the same point, which would lead to JtR fleeing the scene. Working out where PC Neil was at that time, then will provide us with constraints on potential routes of escape from the area that result in JtR not being seen by PC Neil. And given the number of possible routes out of the area, that will be entirely possible I suspect. And those possible exits routes could be informative.

- Jeff

thanks jeff
just to be clear:

"Yes, there are potential witnesses at all the other murder scenes. "

and potential suspects. not so with Nichols scene. no one else but Lech. and paul I suppose. (and the police But I wont go there)

[JeffHamm]

I think it's telling that Griffiths arrived at a conclusion that Cross COULD NOT simply walk away and that Christer didn't correct him. As a former policeman I can only imagine his reaction to the idea that Cross stayed by choice for the thrill and/or because he felt that "bluffing it out" and "scamming" offered him the surest route "past the police" would have been something like, "Hold on... say what?".

I've always maintained that - if he had killed Nichols - Cross' best route out of Buck's Row upon hearing Paul enter would have been to simply walk toward him, passing him, in the dark, before Paul arrived at the spot upon which Nichols lay. Or he could have simply continued on up Buck's Row. There are many obvious, intuitive options, if freedom and survival are the goal... yet we're asked to believe that he chose to simply stand there and await Paul's arrival.

Hi Patrick S,

Yes, the "sticking around for jollies" defies everything. I was thinking if Lechmere/Cross were JtR then something like "head west and down past the school and out to Whitechapel" as the exit route, as it gets him "out of sight" of oncoming Paul as soon as possible, puts him in a busy street to get lost, and allows him to keep heading to work so the "couldn't leave" doesn't make sense - he had a very easy option to get out of there and also to get to work without delays. Sticking around just puts him in a situation where he might not make it to work, and he can't afford to do that, whether he's Jack or not. Even if JtR were fleeing from Lechmere/Cross, that route works well too, even if he's not heading to work in that direction (it's obviously not the only route though). Working out where and what the horse slaughters were and could see is another important constraint as I believe they didn't see anyone. Mind you, they weren't watching the streets necessarily, so it's not out of the question to consider that they just didn't notice someone walking by. Pending on where PC Neil was at these times may produce some guidance on this, though I suspect in the end we'll still have too few constraints to get too far, but we may creep a few inches.

- Jeff

[JeffHamm]

thanks jeff
just to be clear:

"Yes, there are potential witnesses at all the other murder scenes. "

and potential suspects. not so with Nichols scene. no one else but Lech. and paul I suppose. (and the police But I wont go there)

Hi Abby Normal,

True. Maybe it was his success at such a "clean get away" that increased his brazenness at subsequent murders? He was over confident due to his initial success? Wild speculation of course.

- Jeff

[JeffHamm]

Hi,

Ok, just measured out an alternative route, where PC Neil goes up Baker's Row to enter Thomas Street and then over to Queen Anne via Cross, completes that section, back through Cross to do the bottom section of Thomas, out to Buck's Row and then on to the crime scene. This route ends up a bit longer, making his patrol speed around 2.8 mph, but still in the right range (slower than average). The point Lechmere/Cross and Paul leave the body and get to PC Mizen takes about 3 minutes for them to travel, and that would place PC Neil at the red arrow heading west into Cross. Again, this affords the opportunity for Lechmere/Cross and Paul to pass through Buck's Row and towards PC Mizen without PC Neil seeing them (and vice versa). All of these are approximations with various assumptions having to be made, of course, but in the end, it's looking like all of the variations "work", so it doesn't matter which one is truly correct with respect to why they weren't spotted by PC Neil (and why they didn't see him).

Which beat is correct, though, may have more implications about what escape routes JtR may have had available.



- Jeff

Oh, and if he patrolled at 2.5 mph, this beat layout would require 33 minutes 36 seconds.

[drstrange169]

>>... why didn't these police,anyone else, etc. notice the ripper leaving the scene, or anyone else about?<<

Both Neil and Thain stated they saw people about. Mizen didn't say he saw others, but then again Mizen didn't say a lot of things.

[drstrange169]

>>It seems a little odd as all the other murder scenes seem to have witnesses, police, etc noticing other people about and possible suspects. no?<<

Abby

>>Yes, there are potential witnesses at all the other murder scenes. This one, however, there are aren't, and that is what has to be explained.<<

Jeff

Hanbury Street witnesses were at a much later time, when the streets were busier. Plus, it was close to Spitalfieds Market which was just about to start.

Berner Street was much earlier and around the end of the party hour on a Saturday night and it had the club.

Dorset Street had 100's if not 1'000's of people living in the over crowded street.

No real surprises about the amount of people around the other sites compared to Buck's Row.

Even so Neil said Whitechapel Road was busy.

[JeffHamm]

>>It seems a little odd as all the other murder scenes seem to have witnesses, police, etc noticing other people about and possible suspects. no?<<

Abby

>>Yes, there are potential witnesses at all the other murder scenes. This one, however, there are aren't, and that is what has to be explained.<<

Jeff

Hanbury Street witnesses were at a much later time, when the streets were busier. Plus, it was close to Spitalfieds Market which was just about to start.

Berner Street was much earlier and around the end of the party hour on a Saturday night and it had the club.

Dorset Street had 100's if not 1'000's of people living in the over crowded street.

No real surprises about the amount of people around the other sites compared to Buck's Row.

Even so Neil said Whitechapel Road was busy.

Hi drstrange,

All very good points. As far as we know, the only real potential witnesses would be PC Neil, Cross/Lechmere, Paul, the slaughtermen if JtR goes by them, PC Mizen (who's relatively close and on a potential exit route), or PC Thain (on another potential route). But, as the last 3 are easily avoidable, and it looks like the first 3 are too, that's all the potentials accounted for (I think). The other locations had a lot more potential witnesses, as you rightly point out, so perhaps not as surprising as it first seems. The lack of any of the Buck's Row potentials having spotted JtR still has to be accounted for, but it's starting to look like that isn't really all that hard to do (given the limited number of them and the large number of possible exit routes available). I think if he ended up on Whitechappel, given it was busy, he would have just blended into the crowd and have gone unnoticed, so despite the number of people, no reason for any of them to remember someone entering the street.

- Jeff

[drstrange169]

You got me thinking now!

Was Woods Buildings a thoroughway 1888?
It was for many years after and might again now. On the map you are using, which is a later one, it's marked with a squashed cross at the Whitechapel Road entrance. Does that mean a covered archway by any chance?

[JeffHamm]

You got me thinking now!

Was Woods Buildings a thoroughway 1888?
It was for many years after and might again now. On the map you are using, which is a later one, it's marked with a squashed cross at the Whitechapel Road entrance. Does that mean a covered archway by any chance?

Hi drstrange,

I don't know if it was in 1888, but yes, I believe it means covered passage as well as the passage between Mitre Square and St. James Place is similarly marked, and it was covered. The maps that cover 1888 aren't quite as detailed, but there could be some changes.

- Jeff

[Elamarna]

hey gents
good work-but why didn't these police,anyone else, etc. notice the ripper leaving the scene, or anyone else about?

Why would the police notice Abby?

let's assume that the killer did not go back East, or else he may have been seen by not just Lechmere but Paul too.

Mizen is probably either in Hanbury street or Old Montague, some comments by Lech and Paul suggest, no more, that he may have come from Old Montague, its not certain, but is actually unimportant for this specific discussion. The killer if not Lech, he would need to walk right past him, taking the same route Mizen is on for him to be seen. In addition, mizen does not state he had seen on one else on his beat that morning.

In Neil's case, he would need to again be at the precise location the killer took, when the killer passed.


Every 30 minutes the junction of Bakers Row/Whites Row is cover for only a minute or so as Neil and Mizen approach it.

Brady street is the same with Thain and Neil.

The 3 exits onto Whitechapel Road, 4 if you count Nelson Ct, are covered only by Neil, his attention will be on each for only a few seconds, and indeed he does say that while in the Whitechapel road he did see people, the killer could have been one of these, Not suggesting it was, but it cannot be conclusively ruled out.

Contrary to what is claimed the police presence was not heavy. it would be highly coincidental, and unlikely for the killer to have passed one of the 3 police officers for the limited time they were in the area.



Steve

[Elamarna]

Hi,

Ok, just measured out an alternative route, where PC Neil goes up Baker's Row to enter Thomas Street and then over to Queen Anne via Cross, completes that section, back through Cross to do the bottom section of Thomas, out to Buck's Row and then on to the crime scene. This route ends up a bit longer, making his patrol speed around 2.8 mph, but still in the right range (slower than average). The point Lechmere/Cross and Paul leave the body and get to PC Mizen takes about 3 minutes for them to travel, and that would place PC Neil at the red arrow heading west into Cross. Again, this affords the opportunity for Lechmere/Cross and Paul to pass through Buck's Row and towards PC Mizen without PC Neil seeing them (and vice versa). All of these are approximations with various assumptions having to be made, of course, but in the end, it's looking like all of the variations "work", so it doesn't matter which one is truly correct with respect to why they weren't spotted by PC Neil (and why they didn't see him).

Which beat is correct, though, may have more implications about what escape routes JtR may have had available.



- Jeff

Oh, and if he patrolled at 2.5 mph, this beat layout would require 33 minutes 36 seconds.

Nice work Jeff,

steve

[Elamarna]

You got me thinking now!

Was Woods Buildings a thoroughway 1888?
It was for many years after and might again now. On the map you are using, which is a later one, it's marked with a squashed cross at the Whitechapel Road entrance. Does that mean a covered archway by any chance?

Yes Dusty, it was fully useable and your deduction is correct.


Steve

[JeffHamm]

Jeff,

the body would be impossible to see until he got past the Board School, certainly not possible from Queen Anne or Thomas.

That's always been my impression too, which is part of what I didn't like about "door number 2".

If you hang on a week, all the options are clearly covered. Possible positions for the carmen and Neil are covered in great detail.

When the carmen leave the body, assuming they are walking at about 3.5mph and he at 2.5, the closest he is to the body, without being seen is around 3 minutes.

if you take the shorter suggested beats, the gap gets longer not shorter oddly enough.


if the speeds vary and they are walking faster it comes down by a few seconds.


Steve

Looking forward to that Steve. And yes, I was starting to think he couldn't be much closer than 3 minutes either. Add 30 seconds or a minute, and it's tending to look pretty roomy and easy for them to pass by.

- Jeff

[Harry D]

Look at all those possible escape routes for the killer.