Originally posted by Wickerman
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If you randomly select two people, and without looking at any of their personal details, say "What are the odds that X, Y and Z will match?" the odds are very slim. Now, if you say, "What are the odds that of all the information I have, three things will match?" the odds are not as slim, but still medium-low.
However, if you take someone, study their details, go looking for a match, find one, and then say "What are the odds I would find a match?" the odds are 100%, because you did. It's difficult to go back and calculate what they were before you looked, but remember, in the first two situations, your pool of matches is one. It the second, it is very large.
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