From Mitre Square to Goulston Street - Some thoughts.

[Sunny Delight]

Agreed, there was no doubt, his testimony was accepted as given. The only doubts come from modern theorists who have an agenda to promote and Long's testimony stands in their way.

It is true that PC Long was certain it had not been there. However as we know what he copied down as the graffitti was in contradiction to others (maybe he wrote it down correctly- but there is a possibility he didnt). We know he was dismissed 9 months after this for reasons unknown- I have seen it said he was drunk on duty- is that certain? We know that he forgot his pocket book when on the stand during the Inquest and had to be told to retrieve it. That would embarrass a probationer. This was his first or one of his first nights on the new beat was it not?

It just strikes me that PC Long no doubt believed it was not there, however there are many caveats to his certainty which is based on his competence.

[Wickerman]

what doubts about longs testimony? there are none. he was adamant the apron was not there the first time around. i think its a bit silly to disregard evidence, just because of something we think the killer would or would not do. and besides after what the ripper was used to getting away with going back out to write the gsg was peanuts.

Agreed, there was no doubt, his testimony was accepted as given. The only doubts come from modern theorists who have an agenda to promote and Long's testimony stands in their way.

[Elamarna]

Providence looks the most likely Darryl, but that assumes he was staying with Woolf as he was in 90.
However, one must consider that he may have moved between family adress, so Greenfield St is certainly a possibility.
It would however, give him possible bolts holes in both Greenfield and Provdence.


Steve

[Darryl Kenyon]

Nice, work Jeff. And while I don't buy into geoprofiling in a big way, one cannot dispute the effort involved and the interesting points it shows.

However, there is a big mistake, one which was repeated in the BBC documentary a couple of years ago. That is the location of Aaron Kosminski in 1888.
Now it is a problem, as we have no addresses for him until 1890.

You place him in Sion Square, which is where he was living with his brother Woolf in mid 1890( when he was first taken to the workhouse).
However, in 1888 Woolf was not living in Sion Square, but in Provdence Street , slightly to the south of Berner Street.
In early 89, he moved to Yalford street, to the North Berner.
The rest of the Kosminski family were living mostly in Greenfield Street, next to Yalford.

Yalford and Greenfield place the possible location for AK, and a bolt hole. much closer to your southern area. However Providence, is right in the heart of it

Steve

Hi Steve
In the back of my head I am sure I read or heard somewhere that 16 Greenfield st was Kosminski's likeliest address in Autumn 1888 . Though I could be wrong .

Regards Darryl

[Elamarna]

I did another version, this time overlaid with a spatial analysis of the C5 crime locations (referred to as a "geoprofile" in the press and movies).

Rather than put the times he would have to stay at home, I've indicated the amount of time he would have to be travelling. It starts at 9 minutes (yah, odd I know), because of how I originally coded things in terms of the minimum wait time (0 minutes), and worked down to the maximum wait time, and since the start time is 1:41, and the end times either 2:20 or 2:55, the travel times are not "nice" numbers.

Anyway, so the "9" ring means JtR's total travel time is 9 minutes, and the 54 ring indicates he would be traveling (from Mitre Square to there and then back again to Goulston Street) for 54 minutes. I thought this would be a bit more useful as then the ring times don't reflect an assumption about when the apron got dropped off. Also, it might be useful to consider how long JtR would be out and about after having committed at least 1 and maybe 2 murders.

Goulston Street is the Green 6 pointed star. This map also shows some of the other Whitechapel murder locations, so people can consider them as well. It also details some of the various suspects that have been mentioned too (Chapman, though, wasn't living in the indicated location at the time of the JtR crimes, but apparently he was at Cable Street, but I've left that marker there for interest; Also, directly above Kelly's murder location near the edge of the map is a marker for Peabody house. There is no known suspect there, but I had misidentified that location as where Hutchinson was living as it was a boarding house type place. I've left it in because of how it falls in the spatial analysis's region of interest, and because it was low-rent and many single men lived there, so why not?)

I think the take home message is, given the amount of time between 1:41 and the apron's discovery at 2:55, giving JtR 74 minutes to travel, the area that he could potentially have a bolt hole is pretty large! So, I'm sure everyone will be able to argue their favorite suspect "fits".

I think what interests me somewhat is how, if you consider the highest areas of interest (the white and yellow regions; say half way between Kelly and Chapman), then it would suggest JtR walked much less when leaving to discard the apron than he did to get home. That makes a bit of sense to me as he would not want to get too close to the crime scene, and he would not want to be back outside for too long. That area looks to require about 19 minutes total travel, with the Mitre Square - bolt hole leg being roughly twice the proposed "bolt hole to Goulston Street". That makes the first leg roughly 12 m 40 seconds, and the second leg 6m 20 seconds (plus the same amount to return after discarding it). And that, of course, would suggest that he might consider 12-13 minutes an "acceptable risk" to be exposed? I'm just running with things here (some would say running with scissors I suppose), so don't think I'm insisting this must be the case. Heck, I'm not even convinced the spatial analysis is picking up on JtR per se, but may instead be picking up on spatial similarities of the victims themselves, in which case the spatial analysis is a red herring. Still, that doesn't mean it isn't an interesting idea to consider, at least I think it is.

- Jeff

Nice, work Jeff. And while I don't buy into geoprofiling in a big way, one cannot dispute the effort involved and the interesting points it shows.

However, there is a big mistake, one which was repeated in the BBC documentary a couple of years ago. That is the location of Aaron Kosminski in 1888.
Now it is a problem, as we have no addresses for him until 1890.

You place him in Sion Square, which is where he was living with his brother Woolf in mid 1890( when he was first taken to the workhouse).
However, in 1888 Woolf was not living in Sion Square, but in Provdence Street , slightly to the south of Berner Street.
In early 89, he moved to Yalford street, to the North Berner.
The rest of the Kosminski family were living mostly in Greenfield Street, next to Yalford.

Yalford and Greenfield place the possible location for AK, and a bolt hole. much closer to your southern area. However Providence, is right in the heart of it

Steve

[Abby Normal]

This certainly makes the most sense to me. The thing that really throws this in the air is Long. For me there are just too many doubts about his testimony, so much rests on that to come out one way or another with this. When you combine this with the cryptic graffiti, it really makes things difficult. I suppose this is a bit part of the appeal for the case. So many questions and so few definitive answers.

I am sure that the true events of the case as they happened were far more simple and mundane than many would like to imagine! But then we will just never know.

what doubts about longs testimony? there are none. he was adamant the apron was not there the first time around. i think its a bit silly to disregard evidence, just because of something we think the killer would or would not do. and besides after what the ripper was used to getting away with going back out to write the gsg was peanuts.

[Abby Normal]

I did another version, this time overlaid with a spatial analysis of the C5 crime locations (referred to as a "geoprofile" in the press and movies).

Rather than put the times he would have to stay at home, I've indicated the amount of time he would have to be travelling. It starts at 9 minutes (yah, odd I know), because of how I originally coded things in terms of the minimum wait time (0 minutes), and worked down to the maximum wait time, and since the start time is 1:41, and the end times either 2:20 or 2:55, the travel times are not "nice" numbers.

Anyway, so the "9" ring means JtR's total travel time is 9 minutes, and the 54 ring indicates he would be traveling (from Mitre Square to there and then back again to Goulston Street) for 54 minutes. I thought this would be a bit more useful as then the ring times don't reflect an assumption about when the apron got dropped off. Also, it might be useful to consider how long JtR would be out and about after having committed at least 1 and maybe 2 murders.

Goulston Street is the Green 6 pointed star. This map also shows some of the other Whitechapel murder locations, so people can consider them as well. It also details some of the various suspects that have been mentioned too (Chapman, though, wasn't living in the indicated location at the time of the JtR crimes, but apparently he was at Cable Street, but I've left that marker there for interest; Also, directly above Kelly's murder location near the edge of the map is a marker for Peabody house. There is no known suspect there, but I had misidentified that location as where Hutchinson was living as it was a boarding house type place. I've left it in because of how it falls in the spatial analysis's region of interest, and because it was low-rent and many single men lived there, so why not?)

I think the take home message is, given the amount of time between 1:41 and the apron's discovery at 2:55, giving JtR 74 minutes to travel, the area that he could potentially have a bolt hole is pretty large! So, I'm sure everyone will be able to argue their favorite suspect "fits".

I think what interests me somewhat is how, if you consider the highest areas of interest (the white and yellow regions; say half way between Kelly and Chapman), then it would suggest JtR walked much less when leaving to discard the apron than he did to get home. That makes a bit of sense to me as he would not want to get too close to the crime scene, and he would not want to be back outside for too long. That area looks to require about 19 minutes total travel, with the Mitre Square - bolt hole leg being roughly twice the proposed "bolt hole to Goulston Street". That makes the first leg roughly 12 m 40 seconds, and the second leg 6m 20 seconds (plus the same amount to return after discarding it). And that, of course, would suggest that he might consider 12-13 minutes an "acceptable risk" to be exposed? I'm just running with things here (some would say running with scissors I suppose), so don't think I'm insisting this must be the case. Heck, I'm not even convinced the spatial analysis is picking up on JtR per se, but may instead be picking up on spatial similarities of the victims themselves, in which case the spatial analysis is a red herring. Still, that doesn't mean it isn't an interesting idea to consider, at least I think it is.

- Jeff

excellent work as usual jeff!
since to me all the evidence points to the ripper going to his bolt hole and heading back out to write the gsg, im thinking 24-29 circle makes most sense.

[Losmandris]

Hi Jeff

Excellent work but I personally do not subscribe to the suggestion that he had a bolt hole and went home and then came out again, that would be an act whereby he would be unnecessarily risking being stopped by the police and apprehended, after all he was not to know that someone somewhere had seen him and given the police a description of him, or simply risking being stopped and checked.

Looking at the murder locations on the map, it has also to be considered that he made good his escape as soon as possible from each murder putting as much distance as possible between him and each murder. Each of the murder locations as can be seen is very close to a major thoroughfare with the exception of Stride, but of course there is doubt as to whether she was a ripper victim, so that being said it would have been more sensible for him to simply make his way quickly to one of the major thoroughfares and simply blended in with the early morning pedestrians before the bodies were discovered and the hue and cry went out

www.trevormarriott.co.uk

This certainly makes the most sense to me. The thing that really throws this in the air is Long. For me there are just too many doubts about his testimony, so much rests on that to come out one way or another with this. When you combine this with the cryptic graffiti, it really makes things difficult. I suppose this is a bit part of the appeal for the case. So many questions and so few definitive answers.

I am sure that the true events of the case as they happened were far more simple and mundane than many would like to imagine! But then we will just never know.

[Trevor Marriott]

I did another version, this time overlaid with a spatial analysis of the C5 crime locations (referred to as a "geoprofile" in the press and movies).

Rather than put the times he would have to stay at home, I've indicated the amount of time he would have to be travelling. It starts at 9 minutes (yah, odd I know), because of how I originally coded things in terms of the minimum wait time (0 minutes), and worked down to the maximum wait time, and since the start time is 1:41, and the end times either 2:20 or 2:55, the travel times are not "nice" numbers.

Anyway, so the "9" ring means JtR's total travel time is 9 minutes, and the 54 ring indicates he would be traveling (from Mitre Square to there and then back again to Goulston Street) for 54 minutes. I thought this would be a bit more useful as then the ring times don't reflect an assumption about when the apron got dropped off. Also, it might be useful to consider how long JtR would be out and about after having committed at least 1 and maybe 2 murders.

Goulston Street is the Green 6 pointed star. This map also shows some of the other Whitechapel murder locations, so people can consider them as well. It also details some of the various suspects that have been mentioned too (Chapman, though, wasn't living in the indicated location at the time of the JtR crimes, but apparently he was at Cable Street, but I've left that marker there for interest; Also, directly above Kelly's murder location near the edge of the map is a marker for Peabody house. There is no known suspect there, but I had misidentified that location as where Hutchinson was living as it was a boarding house type place. I've left it in because of how it falls in the spatial analysis's region of interest, and because it was low-rent and many single men lived there, so why not?)

I think the take home message is, given the amount of time between 1:41 and the apron's discovery at 2:55, giving JtR 74 minutes to travel, the area that he could potentially have a bolt hole is pretty large! So, I'm sure everyone will be able to argue their favorite suspect "fits".

I think what interests me somewhat is how, if you consider the highest areas of interest (the white and yellow regions; say half way between Kelly and Chapman), then it would suggest JtR walked much less when leaving to discard the apron than he did to get home. That makes a bit of sense to me as he would not want to get too close to the crime scene, and he would not want to be back outside for too long. That area looks to require about 19 minutes total travel, with the Mitre Square - bolt hole leg being roughly twice the proposed "bolt hole to Goulston Street". That makes the first leg roughly 12 m 40 seconds, and the second leg 6m 20 seconds (plus the same amount to return after discarding it). And that, of course, would suggest that he might consider 12-13 minutes an "acceptable risk" to be exposed? I'm just running with things here (some would say running with scissors I suppose), so don't think I'm insisting this must be the case. Heck, I'm not even convinced the spatial analysis is picking up on JtR per se, but may instead be picking up on spatial similarities of the victims themselves, in which case the spatial analysis is a red herring. Still, that doesn't mean it isn't an interesting idea to consider, at least I think it is.

- Jeff

Hi Jeff

Excellent work but I personally do not subscribe to the suggestion that he had a bolt hole and went home and then came out again, that would be an act whereby he would be unnecessarily risking being stopped by the police and apprehended, after all he was not to know that someone somewhere had seen him and given the police a description of him, or simply risking being stopped and checked.

Looking at the murder locations on the map, it has also to be considered that he made good his escape as soon as possible from each murder putting as much distance as possible between him and each murder. Each of the murder locations as can be seen is very close to a major thoroughfare with the exception of Stride, but of course there is doubt as to whether she was a ripper victim, so that being said it would have been more sensible for him to simply make his way quickly to one of the major thoroughfares and simply blended in with the early morning pedestrians before the bodies were discovered and the hue and cry went out

www.trevormarriott.co.uk

[JeffHamm]

I did another version, this time overlaid with a spatial analysis of the C5 crime locations (referred to as a "geoprofile" in the press and movies).

Rather than put the times he would have to stay at home, I've indicated the amount of time he would have to be travelling. It starts at 9 minutes (yah, odd I know), because of how I originally coded things in terms of the minimum wait time (0 minutes), and worked down to the maximum wait time, and since the start time is 1:41, and the end times either 2:20 or 2:55, the travel times are not "nice" numbers.

Anyway, so the "9" ring means JtR's total travel time is 9 minutes, and the 54 ring indicates he would be traveling (from Mitre Square to there and then back again to Goulston Street) for 54 minutes. I thought this would be a bit more useful as then the ring times don't reflect an assumption about when the apron got dropped off. Also, it might be useful to consider how long JtR would be out and about after having committed at least 1 and maybe 2 murders.

Goulston Street is the Green 6 pointed star. This map also shows some of the other Whitechapel murder locations, so people can consider them as well. It also details some of the various suspects that have been mentioned too (Chapman, though, wasn't living in the indicated location at the time of the JtR crimes, but apparently he was at Cable Street, but I've left that marker there for interest; Also, directly above Kelly's murder location near the edge of the map is a marker for Peabody house. There is no known suspect there, but I had misidentified that location as where Hutchinson was living as it was a boarding house type place. I've left it in because of how it falls in the spatial analysis's region of interest, and because it was low-rent and many single men lived there, so why not?)

I think the take home message is, given the amount of time between 1:41 and the apron's discovery at 2:55, giving JtR 74 minutes to travel, the area that he could potentially have a bolt hole is pretty large! So, I'm sure everyone will be able to argue their favorite suspect "fits".

I think what interests me somewhat is how, if you consider the highest areas of interest (the white and yellow regions; say half way between Kelly and Chapman), then it would suggest JtR walked much less when leaving to discard the apron than he did to get home. That makes a bit of sense to me as he would not want to get too close to the crime scene, and he would not want to be back outside for too long. That area looks to require about 19 minutes total travel, with the Mitre Square - bolt hole leg being roughly twice the proposed "bolt hole to Goulston Street". That makes the first leg roughly 12 m 40 seconds, and the second leg 6m 20 seconds (plus the same amount to return after discarding it). And that, of course, would suggest that he might consider 12-13 minutes an "acceptable risk" to be exposed? I'm just running with things here (some would say running with scissors I suppose), so don't think I'm insisting this must be the case. Heck, I'm not even convinced the spatial analysis is picking up on JtR per se, but may instead be picking up on spatial similarities of the victims themselves, in which case the spatial analysis is a red herring. Still, that doesn't mean it isn't an interesting idea to consider, at least I think it is.

- Jeff

[JeffHamm]

Good thoughts. I would always defer to PC Long NOT having missed it. It was a new beat, and when a beat is new, you pay special attention to things. Particularly after he might have heard word on the street about Stride's murder. Question is, how long did the Ripper spend at his bolthole before leaving again to drop off the apron? Five minutes or thirty? I would say when you construct your scenario, give the Ripper five minutes at his bolthole and stop short five minutes before the discovery of the apron, and then try to figure the furthest away he could have traveled on foot. But not as the crow flies because he didn't fly. he had to travel roads and alleys. Frankly, I don't even know how a project like this would be attempted. You might drive yourself mad! But I would certainly enjoy seeing the results.

Yours truly,

Tom Wescott

Hi,

Ok, was able to get a bit of this done. What I've plotted below are various maximum distances for the bolt hole if JtR drops the apron just after PC Long's 2:20 patrol.

PC Harvey appears to have patrolled Church Passage around 1:41, and that is often used as the event that causes JtR to leave Mitre Square. So, if he leaves Mitre Square (A) at 1:41 and is in Goulston Street (B) at 2:20 to discard the apron, that gives him 39 minutes to get from A to B. At an average walking speed, it would only take about 5 or 6 minutes, giving him as much as 33 extra minutes to go to a proposed bolt hole (C).

So he could have as much as 39 minutes to go from A to C to B. If he goes inside and waits 5 minutes, then he only has 34 minutes available to travel. The longer he says inside, the less time he can be on the move, and so the smaller the area that could contain his bolt hole becomes.

All I've done is calculated the distance going from A to each pixel on the map and then to B, all distances measured "as the crow flies" (straight lines). That underestimates the real distance one has to travel though, because the streets aren't straight lines. So, I calculated the straightline distance between Mitre Square and Berner Street, then I calculate the distance along the streets, which is roughly 1.45 times the straight line distance. I calculated how much time it would require to walk the street route at 3.2 mph, and then calculated the speed one would have to walk the straight line distance in order to take the same amount of time. That came out to be 2.2 mph.

As a quick double check, it takes 5-6 minutest to walk from Mitre Squre to Goulston Street along the roads. At 3.2 mph, though, it would only take 4.5 minutes along the straight line but when I used the "correction speed" of 2.2 mph, the straight line time is around 6.5 or so minutes, so it seems like a reasonable estimate to use.

Anyway, I've put the "at home times" on the different borders. So the 30 border means "If JtR stayed inside for 30 minutes before heading to Goulston Street" this is the maximum distance away his bolt hole could be (it could be anywhere inside that oval). If he only stayed inside for 25 minutes, then we consider the 2nd biggest oval, and I just kept plotting them until we get to the limit of spending 0 minutes in his bolt hole.

Unfortunately, I made the initial map image a bit small and it cuts off some of the "regions of interest" to the south, but one gets the idea I think.

Now, if JtR drops the apron later than 2:20 (with an upper limit of 2:55, which is when PC Long finds it), then one would just add more and more ovals, expanding the potential area in which his bolt hole could be. If you think JtR would travel faster than average walking speed, expand the borders, but if you think he might have travelled more slowly (i.e. checking the cost is clear, taking his time, etc), you would shrink things.

In the end, given we don't know how long he was inside, we would want to consider the largest area, which as you can see, is pretty big. Even if you think he would have to have taken at least 5 minutes to wash up, etc, it is still a fairly large search space.

Given that the Chapman murder could have been committed as the sun was coming up (Yes, I know not everyone agrees on that), it does seem to me that would suggest JtR probably felt comfortable enough to kill her because he could get home and out of sight very quickly. (Obviously, he might have felt comfortable simply because he was mad as a hatter too, these are speculative ideas, not facts after all). If so, then we might want to start by focusing on areas between the 5 and 30 minute "wait times" that are also near Hanbury Street.

And what's interesting about that (at least to me), is that many of the spatial analyses that I've plotted before (the geographical profiling stuff), tends to emphasize areas between the Kelly and Chapman crime scenes and up in that same area.

On the other hand, if he did live up around Hanbury Street, heading back to Goulston Street from there would be more or less heading straight back towards the crime scene, and the longer he's inside, the more likely that area is going to be swarming with police (so it seems like an odd decision). Also, it results in the Mitre Square to Goulston Street vector to be pointing towards him (though of course he may not have been quite as aware of that as we are, given we're looking at a map and he would be in the maze of streets).

The "more clever" JtR might want to place the apron such that it points in the "wrong" direction, so we might then want to have a 2nd area of particular interest, I would suggest to the North West, between the 25 and 10 minute waits (the idea being he heads away from Mitre Square when leaving, but when going to Goulston he's not really heading directly towards the crime scene but rather skirting above it until he gets to the far side to create his NE pointer that directs the search away from his bolt hole).

I suppose one could also take the distance between Mitre Square and Goulston Street to represent how close to the crime scene JtR feels comfortable getting (any closer and the risk is too high), and therefore, it may also reflect roughly how far away from his bolt hole he would want to get rid of the apron (any closer and the risk is too high). If you consider that a reasonable idea, then you would reduce the priority of areas that fall inside a circle centred on Goulston Street, and with GS-Mitre Square representing the radius.

Again, these sorts of suggestions are just that, suggestions, they aren't facts, they are speculations that are derived by considering the areas mapped out, and factoring in different possible decisions that JtR might have had to make. I'm sure others can think of additional ways to interpret this, and sharing those ideas is always a good thing.

These may generate some new ideas, which is what they are intended to do. Enjoy.

- Jeff

[Ms Diddles]

Since Goulston Street is so close to Mitre Square and Jeff Hamm's research and cited research suggests that the murderer lived near Goulston Street, then that would seem to lend credence both to my suggestion that the murderer could have gone home first before depositing the apron and another member's suggestion that he went home in between the two murders committed that night.

Yeah, I would agree that is indeed a possibility worthy of consideration.

[PRIVATE INVESTIGATOR 1]

Since Goulston Street is so close to Mitre Square and Jeff Hamm's research and cited research suggests that the murderer lived near Goulston Street, then that would seem to lend credence both to my suggestion that the murderer could have gone home first before depositing the apron and another member's suggestion that he went home in between the two murders committed that night.

[Ms Diddles]

Could not agree with you more Ms Diddles. I really could not believe how close they were. Heading back from Mitre square and toward Whitechapel I walked into Goulston street practically by accident. Seems like the natural route as it were if you are avoiding the main streets!

I had never been to Whitechapel before so followed the suggested route in the Edgar's Guide.

It was all a bit of a blur, and I think I'd need to do it again to really grasp how the sites all relate to each other geographically, but I do recall being surprised to suddenly find myself in The City so close to all the Whitechapel sites.

It's a good excuse to go back one day!

[Losmandris]

Oh no!

Here we go again.

2.5 minutes then if you move pretty fast?


(Google maps puts it at a 5 minute walk, so if someone was running Losmandris would be spot on with his "couple of minutes" estimation).

I walked it myself last year and was quite surprised at how close the sites all are relative to each other

Could not agree with you more Ms Diddles. I really could not believe how close they were. Heading back from Mitre square and toward Whitechapel I walked into Goulston street practically by accident. Seems like the natural route as it were if you are avoiding the main streets!