Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Jack's Escape from Mitre Square

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • DJA
    replied
    Originally posted by Trevor Marriott View Post

    Clearly you are one who won’t let go of the old accepted theory by you unwarranted remarks

    for your information with the exception of the knife wiping the rest of the tests were carried out under medical conditions in a hospital using standard hospital equipment.

    www.trevormarriott.co.uk
    So the knife was a scam.
    There was no apron material.

    The purple gloves are CHEMOTHERAPY GLOVES not surgical gloves.

    Leave a comment:


  • Scott Nelson
    replied
    Jeff, If I understand your latest reconstruction correctly, you have Harvey sheltering in the covered entry to Gun Square for about 3 minutes -- but this location would have been on Houndsditch, not Duke Street. So did Harvey delay for a few minutes earlier on his beat going up (north) Houndsditch, or later on his return down (south) Duke Street?

    Leave a comment:


  • Trevor Marriott
    replied
    [QUOTE=Trevor Marriott;n752704]
    Originally posted by JeffHamm View Post

    Hi Trevor,

    While I appreciate your efforts at recreation, the problem is we do not have the original piece of material with it's blood pattern to compare to, so how do you know if your blood patterns are similar or different from those found on the Goulston Street Apron? Deciding you would use different words to describe your patterns isn't exactly evidence you know. And, the use of gloves, the type of knife, and material (type and cleanliness, etc) will all make these results less than an ideal comparison.

    Anyway, I agree, let's move on from this, or take it to it's own thread. I think there's enough in it for the latter, but I'll leave it to you to decide if you think it's worth continuing. Cheers, as alway

    of course we can judge without seeing the original just as much as you can say the description as described is consistent with your belief that the killer wiped his knife or his hands

    the results shown clearly negate how the apron piece was described and clearly negate the reasons you say the apron piece was used for.

    blood spots/ fecal matter only on one side of the apron piece. The next you will be trying to prop the old accepted theory is suggesting the killer only had one arm. I guess that might explain why when wiping the knife or his hand there is only residue on one side of the apron piece.



    Leave a comment:


  • Christian
    replied
    Originally posted by DJA View Post
    Click image for larger version

Name:	MITRE street.jpg
Views:	277
Size:	151.2 KB
ID:	752448
    Looking at this image is that Mitre Street in the foreground?? Trying to get my bearings and what are the concrete structures below square level ??

    Leave a comment:


  • Trevor Marriott
    replied
    [QUOTE=JeffHamm;n752702]

    Hi Trevor,

    While I appreciate your efforts at recreation, the problem is we do not have the original piece of material with it's blood pattern to compare to, so how do you know if your blood patterns are similar or different from those found on the Goulston Street Apron? Deciding you would use different words to describe your patterns isn't exactly evidence you know. And, the use of gloves, the type of knife, and material (type and cleanliness, etc) will all make these results less than an ideal comparison.

    Anyway, I agree, let's move on from this, or take it to it's own thread. I think there's enough in it for the latter, but I'll leave it to you to decide if you think it's worth continuing. Cheers, as always


    - Jeff[/QUOTE

    Leave a comment:


  • Trevor Marriott
    replied
    Originally posted by DJA View Post

    You have someone wearing chemotherapy gloves and someone holding a kitchen knife.
    The cloth does not appear to be of the type commonly worn circa 1888,in fact nothing like apron material of that time.

    Crikey,I could do better than that.
    Clearly you are one who won’t let go of the old accepted theory by you unwarranted remarks

    for your information with the exception of the knife wiping the rest of the tests were carried out under medical conditions in a hospital using standard hospital equipment.

    Leave a comment:


  • JeffHamm
    replied
    Originally posted by Trevor Marriott View Post

    I am going to conclude on this topic by posting the results of controlled tests under medical conditions carried out on a piece of material consistent with the GS apron, piece to test the different theories regarding the apron piece. The first set of images shows a long bladed knife with blood on its blade it is real blood and how it is suggested the killer used the apron piece to wipe his bloodied knife.

    It should be noted that the results show significant smearing. It should also be noted that if the killer had both his hands bloodied then there would be residue on the piece of the material he would have been holding. As stated the GS apron piece had residue only on one side.

    the second image show a uterus having been removed from a live donor and wrapped up for a short time. This clearly shows heavy blood staining, not blood spotting or blood smears. so I think it is safe to say this test clearly show that the organs were not carried away in it.

    The third shows the effect on a cloth having had bloodied hands wiped on it. I accept that this photo is slightly exaggerated due to the amount of blood seen on the surgical gloves but nevertheless I believe it proves the point that the killer did not wipe his bloody hands on the apron piece

    I ma sure these results will not sit well with you and all the others who still subscribe to the killer doing all that he is supposed of have done in Mitre Square. But as the saying goes one picture is worth a thousand words or in this case 6 pics




    Click image for larger version

Name:	Knige with blood.jpg
Views:	292
Size:	244.5 KB
ID:	752687 Click image for larger version

Name:	Wiping knife.jpg
Views:	280
Size:	232.0 KB
ID:	752688 Click image for larger version

Name:	End result smearing.jpg
Views:	278
Size:	232.8 KB
ID:	752689
    Click image for larger version

Name:	Picture 6 staining on cloth following uterus removal.jpg
Views:	270
Size:	108.4 KB
ID:	752690 Click image for larger version

Name:	Blood stained hands.jpg
Views:	274
Size:	29.1 KB
ID:	752691 Click image for larger version

Name:	hand wiping Towel motion 3.jpg
Views:	274
Size:	26.2 KB
ID:	752692
    Hi Trevor,

    While I appreciate your efforts at recreation, the problem is we do not have the original piece of material with it's blood pattern to compare to, so how do you know if your blood patterns are similar or different from those found on the Goulston Street Apron? Deciding you would use different words to describe your patterns isn't exactly evidence you know. And, the use of gloves, the type of knife, and material (type and cleanliness, etc) will all make these results less than an ideal comparison.

    Anyway, I agree, let's move on from this, or take it to it's own thread. I think there's enough in it for the latter, but I'll leave it to you to decide if you think it's worth continuing. Cheers, as always.

    - Jeff

    Leave a comment:


  • DJA
    replied
    Originally posted by Trevor Marriott View Post

    I am going to conclude on this topic by posting the results of controlled tests under medical conditions carried out on a piece of material consistent with the GS apron, piece to test the different theories regarding the apron piece. The first set of images shows a long bladed knife with blood on its blade it is real blood and how it is suggested the killer used the apron piece to wipe his bloodied knife.

    It should be noted that the results show significant smearing. It should also be noted that if the killer had both his hands bloodied then there would be residue on the piece of the material he would have been holding. As stated the GS apron piece had residue only on one side.

    the second image show a uterus having been removed from a live donor and wrapped up for a short time. This clearly shows heavy blood staining, not blood spotting or blood smears. so I think it is safe to say this test clearly show that the organs were not carried away in it.

    The third shows the effect on a cloth having had bloodied hands wiped on it. I accept that this photo is slightly exaggerated due to the amount of blood seen on the surgical gloves but nevertheless I believe it proves the point that the killer did not wipe his bloody hands on the apron piece

    I ma sure these results will not sit well with you and all the others who still subscribe to the killer doing all that he is supposed of have done in Mitre Square. But as the saying goes one picture is worth a thousand words or in this case 6 pics

    www.trevormarriott.co.uk


    Click image for larger version  Name:	Knige with blood.jpg Views:	0 Size:	244.5 KB ID:	752687 Click image for larger version  Name:	Wiping knife.jpg Views:	0 Size:	232.0 KB ID:	752688 Click image for larger version  Name:	End result smearing.jpg Views:	0 Size:	232.8 KB ID:	752689
    Click image for larger version  Name:	Picture 6 staining on cloth following uterus removal.jpg Views:	0 Size:	108.4 KB ID:	752690 Click image for larger version  Name:	Blood stained hands.jpg Views:	0 Size:	29.1 KB ID:	752691 Click image for larger version  Name:	hand wiping Towel motion 3.jpg Views:	0 Size:	26.2 KB ID:	752692
    You have someone wearing chemotherapy gloves and someone holding a kitchen knife.
    The cloth does not appear to be of the type commonly worn circa 1888,in fact nothing like apron material of that time.

    Crikey,I could do better than that.
    Last edited by DJA; 03-08-2021, 05:47 PM.

    Leave a comment:


  • DJA
    replied
    Originally posted by Elamarna View Post
    That any artery remained on the kidney is disputed by Brown.
    The degree of Brights disease was also disputed.

    Smith is well known for exaggeration.
    Try reading the last sentence.

    Leave a comment:


  • Trevor Marriott
    replied
    Originally posted by JeffHamm View Post

    Ok, while we really should leave this to a dedicated thread concerning the apron, I'll just post this from DJA's post back on page 101:

    -----------------------------------

    Daniel Halse, detective officer, City police: On Saturday, Sept. 29, pursuant to instructions received at the central office in Old Jewry, I directed a number of police in plain clothes to patrol the streets of the City all night. At two minutes to two o'clock on the Sunday morning, when near Aldgate Church, in company with Detectives Outram and Marriott, I heard that a woman had been found murdered in Mitre-square. We ran to the spot, and I at once gave instructions for the neighbourhood to be searched and every man stopped and examined. I myself went by way of Middlesex-street into Wentworth-street, where I stopped two men, who, however, gave a satisfactory account of themselves. I came through Goulston-street about twenty minutes past two, and then returned to Mitre-square, subsequently going to the mortuary. I saw the deceased, and noticed that a portion of her apron was missing. I accompanied Major Smith back to Mitre-square, when we heard that a piece of apron had been found in Goulston-street. After visiting Leman-street police-station, I proceeded to Goulston-street, where I saw some chalk-writing on the black facia of the wall. Instructions were given to have the writing photographed, but before it could be done the Metropolitan police stated that they thought the writing might cause a riot or outbreak against the Jews, and it was decided to have it rubbed out, as the people were already bringing out their stalls into the street. When Detective Hunt returned inquiry was made at every door of every tenement of the model dwelling-house, but we gained no tidings of any one who was likely to have been the murderer.
    By Mr. Crawford: At twenty minutes past two o'clock I passed over the spot where the piece of apron was found, but did not notice anything then. I should not necessarily have seen the piece of apron.

    ------------------------------------------

    Note the bolded section. DO Halse indicates he went to the mortuary where he saw the deceased (Eddowes) and noted that a portion of her apron was missing.

    So, we know for a fact that Eddowes had an apron, and we know for a fact a portion was missing from it.

    Yes but we dont know if that apron referred to was an apron or an apron piece that she was "apparently" wearing I use the term apparently because Insp Collard uses that term in his inquest testimony which I find strange because we see Insp Collard who was also present when the body was stripped making lists of clothing she was wearing and property in her possession. Those lists would have been prepared as the body was being stripped. So if she had have been wearing an apron and still attached to the body it would have been easily seen and listed accordingly, but its not there with her clothing and if she had been wearing one I would have expected it to been included in the list of clothing.

    But it is in her list of possessions we see listed "One piece of old white apron" now if she had been wearing an apron and the killer had cut a piece I would have expected it to have been listed as "Old white apron with piece missing" now there is a big difference between the two descriptions. My belief is that she was not wearing an apron but simply been in possession of two old pieces of apron that at some time had perhaps had come from a full apron, one of which was found in GS.


    And from Dr. Brown's inquest testimony, we have:

    [Coroner] Was your attention called to the portion of the apron that was found in Goulston-street? - Yes. I fitted that portion which was spotted with blood to the remaining portion, which was still attached by the strings to the body.

    I hope you wont mind me correcting you yet again but the quote you posted regarding the apron is wrong because it was from The Telgraph Inquest report. In the official signed statement of Dr. Brown which I believe adds real corroboration to the fact that she wasn’t wearing an apron he states “My attention was called to the apron it was the corner of the apron with "the" string attached.” This shows that the apron piece from the mortuary was of the type which originally had two strings attached.

    - Jeff
    I am going to conclude on this topic by posting the results of controlled tests under medical conditions carried out on a piece of material consistent with the GS apron, piece to test the different theories regarding the apron piece. The first set of images shows a long bladed knife with blood on its blade it is real blood and how it is suggested the killer used the apron piece to wipe his bloodied knife.

    It should be noted that the results show significant smearing. It should also be noted that if the killer had both his hands bloodied then there would be residue on the piece of the material he would have been holding. As stated the GS apron piece had residue only on one side.

    the second image show a uterus having been removed from a live donor and wrapped up for a short time. This clearly shows heavy blood staining, not blood spotting or blood smears. so I think it is safe to say this test clearly show that the organs were not carried away in it.

    The third shows the effect on a cloth having had bloodied hands wiped on it. I accept that this photo is slightly exaggerated due to the amount of blood seen on the surgical gloves but nevertheless I believe it proves the point that the killer did not wipe his bloody hands on the apron piece

    I ma sure these results will not sit well with you and all the others who still subscribe to the killer doing all that he is supposed of have done in Mitre Square. But as the saying goes one picture is worth a thousand words or in this case 6 pics




    Click image for larger version

Name:	Knige with blood.jpg
Views:	292
Size:	244.5 KB
ID:	752687 Click image for larger version

Name:	Wiping knife.jpg
Views:	280
Size:	232.0 KB
ID:	752688 Click image for larger version

Name:	End result smearing.jpg
Views:	278
Size:	232.8 KB
ID:	752689
    Click image for larger version

Name:	Picture 6 staining on cloth following uterus removal.jpg
Views:	270
Size:	108.4 KB
ID:	752690 Click image for larger version

Name:	Blood stained hands.jpg
Views:	274
Size:	29.1 KB
ID:	752691 Click image for larger version

Name:	hand wiping Towel motion 3.jpg
Views:	274
Size:	26.2 KB
ID:	752692

    Leave a comment:


  • Elamarna
    replied
    That any artery remained on the kidney is disputed by Brown.
    The degree of Brights disease was also disputed.

    Smith is well known for exaggeration.

    Leave a comment:


  • DJA
    replied
    in the 1910 memoirs of former City Police Commissioner Major Sir Henry Smith. Within the pages of his From Constable to Commissioner, he purports to settle the matter of the Lusk Kidney once and for all:
    1. I made over the kidney to the police surgeon, instructing him to consult with the most eminent men in the Profession, and to send me a report without delay. I give the substance of it. The renal artery is about three inches long. Two inches remained in the corpse, one inch was attached to the kidney. The kidney left in the corpse was in an advanced state of Bright's Disease; the kidney sent me was in an exactly similar state. But what was of far more importance, Mr Sutton, one of the senior surgeons at the London Hospital, whom Gordon Brown asked to meet him and another surgeon in consultation, and who was one of the greatest authorities living on the kidney and its diseases, said he would pledge his reputation that the kidney submitted to them had been put in spirits within a few hours of its removal from the body thus effec-ually disposing of all hoaxes in connection with it.

    Leave a comment:


  • DJA
    replied
    One corner being wet with blood indicates the two items were placed on that corner and folded and rolled,thus preventing any blood droplets leading towards and through the gate to number 6 Mitre Street.
    The organs would be left to drain/dry out before being immersed in ethanol.
    Daniel Halse supplied us with the actual escape time frame.

    Leave a comment:


  • JeffHamm
    replied
    Originally posted by Trevor Marriott View Post

    There is only one possible explanation with regards to the apron piece, and that is the killer did not cut it and take it away and did not deposit it in Goulston Street. We see no evidence of the killer doing this in any of the other murders so the old accepted theory does not now stand up to close scrutiny, and the evidence to show she was wearing an apron prior to her murder is also not to be relied upon for the reasons I have already highlighted in previous posts.

    You are right we have discussed this previous and you and others seem set in your belief in the old accepted theories which is your choice, but 130 years later should we be accepting without question all of these old accepted facst that go back 130 years. I dont think we should

    www.trevormarriott.co.uk
    Ok, while we really should leave this to a dedicated thread concerning the apron, I'll just post this from DJA's post back on page 101:

    -----------------------------------

    Daniel Halse, detective officer, City police: On Saturday, Sept. 29, pursuant to instructions received at the central office in Old Jewry, I directed a number of police in plain clothes to patrol the streets of the City all night. At two minutes to two o'clock on the Sunday morning, when near Aldgate Church, in company with Detectives Outram and Marriott, I heard that a woman had been found murdered in Mitre-square. We ran to the spot, and I at once gave instructions for the neighbourhood to be searched and every man stopped and examined. I myself went by way of Middlesex-street into Wentworth-street, where I stopped two men, who, however, gave a satisfactory account of themselves. I came through Goulston-street about twenty minutes past two, and then returned to Mitre-square, subsequently going to the mortuary. I saw the deceased, and noticed that a portion of her apron was missing. I accompanied Major Smith back to Mitre-square, when we heard that a piece of apron had been found in Goulston-street. After visiting Leman-street police-station, I proceeded to Goulston-street, where I saw some chalk-writing on the black facia of the wall. Instructions were given to have the writing photographed, but before it could be done the Metropolitan police stated that they thought the writing might cause a riot or outbreak against the Jews, and it was decided to have it rubbed out, as the people were already bringing out their stalls into the street. When Detective Hunt returned inquiry was made at every door of every tenement of the model dwelling-house, but we gained no tidings of any one who was likely to have been the murderer.
    By Mr. Crawford: At twenty minutes past two o'clock I passed over the spot where the piece of apron was found, but did not notice anything then. I should not necessarily have seen the piece of apron.

    ------------------------------------------

    Note the bolded section. DO Halse indicates he went to the mortuary where he saw the deceased (Eddowes) and noted that a portion of her apron was missing.

    So, we know for a fact that Eddowes had an apron, and we know for a fact a portion was missing from it.

    Now, from PC Long's Inquest testimony, found here on Casebook under the official files, we have this:

    Coroner] Which did you notice first - the piece of apron or the writing on the wall? - The piece of apron, one corner of which was wet with blood.

    So PC Long, under oath, testifies that one corner of the apron was wet with blood. So we know one corner of that piece of material was wet with blood.

    And from Dr. Brown's inquest testimony, we have:

    [Coroner] Was your attention called to the portion of the apron that was found in Goulston-street? - Yes. I fitted that portion which was spotted with blood to the remaining portion, which was still attached by the strings to the body.

    So we know the portion of apron, with one corner wet with blood, fit Eddowes apron that had a piece missing, and that Eddowes apron was still attached to the body, so she was wearing it when she was murdered.

    Ergo, Eddowes was wearing an apron, a piece of it was missing when she was taken to the mortuary, and that missing piece was found in Goulston Street with one corner wet with blood.

    There is absolutely nothing that even sparks of opinion here, those are statements of fact.

    Questioning the police interpretations is a good thing. But questioning does not always mean rejecting what they concluded. It's simply going back over the evidence and re-evaluating it, and sometimes during that questioning we find the original interpretation is sound. In this case, it is sound.

    Anyway, let's park this for now, and if you want to discuss it further then I'm happy to join you in a thread dedicated to this topic, although I rather suspect we'll just both repeat ourselves like two stubborn old men.

    - Jeff

    Leave a comment:


  • JeffHamm
    replied
    Hmmm, ok. I've just been trying out a few tests on another idea, namely, estimating the rain duration. We have Lawende and Leve getting up to leave the club at 1:30. Leve estimates they waited 3-4 minutes to leave as they were waiting for the rain to stop, while Lawende estimated 5 minutes. This leads to our last (actually only) sighting of the CPC to be between 1:33 and 1:35.

    Now, I've got a simulation that all the testified times and places (meaning, people end up where they say they were at the time they said they were there). In particular, it's PC Harvey that can be tested because all we have for PC Watkins is that he patrolled Mitre Square at 1:30 and again at 1:44, so we have to set his patrol time to meet those, which leaves us nothing to test him with. However, PC Harvey gives us:
    1) he's at the post office at 1:28
    2) he patrols Church Passage about 3-4 minutes before he hears Morris's whistle (which is shortly after PC Watkins finds Eddowes at 1:44, so the whistle is between 1:44 and 1:45), making his patrol of Church Passage around 1:41 (though I've seen others suggest 1:42).
    3) And he says that when he hears the whistle (between 1:44 and 1:45), he's heading back on Algate from Mitre Street towards Duke Street. I forget his exact words, but they've always struck me as him being nearer Mitre Street than Duke.

    Anyway, that means, if I set his speed to get him to patrol Church Passage at 1:41, then I can see where he ends up between 1:44 and 1:45 and see if that fits (or set it so he ends up in Algate in roughly the right place I can check to see what time he would have patrolled Church Passage) . At the moment, I've got a simulation that does that, which I posted a few pages back.

    Now, in that version, PC Harvey is patrolling at well below regulation speed, but never halts his patrol. But, what if I speed him up but have him take shelter for the duration of the rain? At full regulation patrol speed, it can't work, because from Church Passage a 3 minute travel (1:44) already puts him way too far along to be between Mitre Street and Duke. However, at 2.1 MPH then from 1:44 and allowing 30-45 seconds for PC Watkins to alert Morris and for Morris to start running, and another 15 seconds for Morris to get into Mitre Street and blow his whistle, which alerts PC Harvey, then PC Harvey is at that time still between Mitre Street and Duke Street.

    Now he wouldn't be there if he patrolled his beat continuously at 2.1 mph, I have to pause him. So, if we assume the rain started at about the time Lawende and company get up (so start the rain at 1:30), then I pause PC Harvey at that time. And he's here:

    Click image for larger version

Name:	Time-1-30-00_RainVersion.jpg
Views:	203
Size:	121.6 KB
ID:	752670
    What's interesting is that straight above him you can see a small part of the buildings marked with an X, and that's a covered entry! Perfect shelter. If I have him stay there for 3 minutes, he doesn't get to Church Passage until 1:41:25, and that's close enough to be worthy of consideration. Also, at 1:45, which 1 minute after PC Watkins has found Eddowes, and so probably enough time for Morris to have been alerted and to blow his whistle, PC Harvey is also where he says he was 3-4 minutes after patrolling Church Passage! Note, in this scenario, JtR has an additional 25 seconds as he's not spooked until 1:41:25, rather than at 1:41. Meaning, he's in Mitre Square from roughly 1:33:30 until 1:41:25, which is 6 minutes and 55 seconds.

    Click image for larger version

Name:	Time-1-45-00_RainVersion.jpg
Views:	200
Size:	121.5 KB
ID:	752671
    So the "PC Harvey takes shelter for 3 minutes" idea works just as well as "slow Plodding PC Harvey who braves the rain.", but the former gives JtR an additional 25 seconds at the crime scene.

    Now, if I set PC Harvey to wait 5 minutes, I have to speed him up to 2.54 mph, which is pretty much bang on regulation speed (2.5 mph). But, now, he doesn't reach Church Passage until 1:41:40 (giving JtR an extra 40 seconds before he's spooked by PC Harvey's arrival, so he's potentially there from 1:35:30 until 1:41:40, which is 6 minutes and 10 seconds, still above 5 minutes, and not all that much less than the 3 minute rain version). 3 minutes later, at 1:44:40, PC Harvey is about where he's indicated above, but now there's only 40 seconds for PC Watkins to alert Morris and for Morris to blow his whistle and for PC Harvey to hear it - the inquest statements, as I recall them, have Morris in Mitre Street, so that's only 40 seconds for PC Watkins to run over, alert Morris, for Morris to view the body, and then run out and blow his whistle. That seems like not enough time, and typically I've been working on 45 seconds for Morris to start his run, and 15 seconds later he's in Mitre Street blowing his whistle. So if I give PC Harvey another 20 seconds, where is he?

    He's just at Duke Street. He's not just rounded the corner at Mitre Street and heading to Duke Street, so it's not quite fitting anymore but probably right on the edge of acceptable, given this is a simulation after all.

    Now, if I speed up PC Harvey even more to 2.75 mph, he now gets to Church Passage at 1:41:00 with the 5 minute pause, negating the 40 extra seconds JtR has in Mitre Square (bringing us back to the 5 minutes 30 seconds that I've mentioned as the bare minimum he can have). However, 3 minutes later, at 1:44 when PC Watkins has only just found Eddowes, PC Harvey is already at Duke Street. And, when Morris blows his whistle a minute later at 1:45, PC Harvey is now heading up Houndsditch. That clearly doesn't work.

    Ok, what I'm getting at is this. While we shouldn't over think these simulations, they are useful. We can start sorting ideas into plausible and implausible ones. So far, there are 2 scenarios that survive testing easily:

    1) a slow and steady PC Harvey, who ignores the rain; this leaves between 6 and 8 minutes unaccounted for, 30 seconds of which would be used up by the CPC walking to the crime scene, leaving between 5 m 30 s and 7 m 30 s for the crime.

    2) a fairly steady paced PC Harvey (2.1 mph) who shelters during a 3 minute rain and ends up where he says he was at 1:45; this one leaves 6 m 55 s for the crime and he patrols Church Passage at 1:41:25, which is right in the 1:41-1:42 range that we've always talked about.

    and a third which just could be argued to squeak in:
    3) a regulation speed PC Harvey (2.54 mph) who shelters during a 5 minute rain; this one leaves 6 m 10 s for the crime

    And a 4th that I think we can reject
    4) a speedy PC Harvey (2.75 mph) who shelters during a 5 minute rain; this one puts him in Houndsditch when the whistle is blown, and he should be between Mitre Street and Duke Street. This is ruled out.

    and another one that doesn't quite work either is
    5) having him shelter for 3 minutes, and get to Church Passage at 1:41 exactly. Now he patrols at 2.2 mph, but when the whistle blows he's at the post office again, which is too far from where he reports being.


    Anyway, the important thing here is, there are multiple ideas that work, and we cannot differentiate between them (the first 2). However, there are also set ups that do not work, which we can reject (the 4th and 5th options), and others which are borderline (the 3rd one) and where accepting or rejecting it would reflect individual decision criterion. But, what we can do, is put ideas to the test, we can question our ideas and see if they fit the testimony. We have to allow some leeway, because the testimony involves estimations of time, and descriptions of places rather than time stamped data and geo coordinates. But even then, we can start to throw out configurations that don't work, reducing the viable options to a limited set. What I find interesting, though, that a lot of the viable options end up with JtR having a bit more time at the crime scene than we've often assumed. I wasn't expecting that, but that's why we must test our ideas.

    - Jeff

    Leave a comment:

Working...
X