Lechmere validity

[FrankO]

Ok, based on a story in The Echo (Sept 21, 1888; Thanks for the pointer Steve!), I've traced out what appears to be PC Neil's beat. It's described like this:

...the third constable would commence at Brady street, cover Whitechapel road, Baker's row, Thomas street, Queen Anne street, and Buck's row, to Brady street, and all the interior, this consisting of about ten streets, courts, passage, &c....

...

Oh, and remember, this is all assuming the newspaper report of the beat is accurate, that I've not missed anything, and all other such cautions.

- Jeff

Hi Jeff,

Great work! I did this exercise, too, some time back, but I had Neil going up Baker's Row and then turning right into Thomas Street instead of him turning into Buck's Row and then turning left up Thomas Street. That fits better with the route as it was laid down in the Echo of 21 September. I guess that Steve will have included this possibility in his upcoming work, but I'm sure he'll correct me if I guessed wrong.

All the best,
Frank

[Patrick S]

Hi all,

Just reading PC Neil's testimony (as reported in The Times, Sept 3, 1888), where it states " ... Witness then heard a constable passing Brady-street, and he called to him. Witness said to him, "Run at once for Dr. Llewellyn." Seeing another constable in Baker's-row, witness despatched him for the ambulance. ...", the first being PC Thain, the 2nd being PC Mizen.

It just occurred to me, we know PC Neil became aware of PC Thain at the end of Brady Street as he passed, so JtR, who would also be on alert, should likewise have been aware of Cross/Lechmere when he entered Brady Street (on the assumption that JtR was even still there of course), and so easily leave the scene. Cross/Lechmere isn't on alert, so would have no reason to take notice of someone down the street in the dark heading away from him.

Of course, that also suggests that if Cross/Lechmere were JtR he decided to hang around when Paul entered from Brady street as well (and not just when he was 30 =- 40 yards away), which negates any argument that Cross/Lechmere as JtR didn't have an option to flee (neither does 30-40 yards prevent that option, but still).

- Jeff

Hi, Jeff. Despite the fact that the documentary (Griffiths) states quite clearly that Cross - as the Nichols' killer - "had no choice" but to remain where he was because "there was now someone else (Paul)" in Buck's Row and, further, that he "could not" walk/run from the scene "due to the police presence in the area", Christer maintains that this is not his view. His idea is that Cross remained because he wanted to, as a psychopath, he enjoyed the scenario he set in motion: the recruitment and duping of Robert Paul, the scamming of Mizen, his dishonest inquest testimony. Further, upon hearing Paul enter Buck's Row, Cross instantly judged that he stood a better chance of evading suspicion by "bluffing it out".

[Elamarna]

Hi Jeff,

Great work! I did this exercise, too, some time back, but I had Neil going up Baker's Row and then turning right into Thomas Street instead of him turning into Buck's Row and then turning left up Thomas Street. That fits better with the route as it was laid down in the Echo of 21 September. I guess that Steve will have included this possibility in his upcoming work, but I'm sure he'll correct me if I guessed wrong.

All the best,
Frank

Yes Frank, its in there, or variation on it.


Steve

[FrankO]

Yes Frank, its in there, or variation on it.


Steve

[JeffHamm]

Yes we are definitely in the same ball park, i suggest that when the Carmen pass along bucks row, he is either in the Northern section of Queen Anne, before the slight bend heading south, or he is in Cross street. Those locations put him the closest distance from the murder site depending on the exact route.


Steve

Hi Steve,

Yes, those are similar to where I was locating him as well, pending on the variation. So far, all the variations I've tried put him up in that area in a position that Cross/Lechmere and Paul can exit out to Baker's Row before PC Neil would be in a position to see them, but close enough that he would find Nichols about the time they meet up with PC Mizen.

- Jeff

[JeffHamm]

Hi Jeff,

Great work! I did this exercise, too, some time back, but I had Neil going up Baker's Row and then turning right into Thomas Street instead of him turning into Buck's Row and then turning left up Thomas Street. That fits better with the route as it was laid down in the Echo of 21 September. I guess that Steve will have included this possibility in his upcoming work, but I'm sure he'll correct me if I guessed wrong.

All the best,
Frank

Hi Frank,

I was just thinking of that variation this morning but haven't had a chance to measure it and work out patrol speeds and positions. I see Steve has also included it in his analysis. Nice to see independent research converging on the same ideas.

- Jeff

[JeffHamm]

Hi, Jeff. Despite the fact that the documentary (Griffiths) states quite clearly that Cross - as the Nichols' killer - "had no choice" but to remain where he was because "there was now someone else (Paul)" in Buck's Row and, further, that he "could not" walk/run from the scene "due to the police presence in the area", Christer maintains that this is not his view. His idea is that Cross remained because he wanted to, as a psychopath, he enjoyed the scenario he set in motion: the recruitment and duping of Robert Paul, the scamming of Mizen, his dishonest inquest testimony. Further, upon hearing Paul enter Buck's Row, Cross instantly judged that he stood a better chance of evading suspicion by "bluffing it out".

Hi Patrick S,

Well, the "wants to bluff it out for laughs" scenario doesn't make sense to me, and I think is just a way to try and save the whole theory given he didn't flee when he had the chance. The "couldn't run" (or decided he was caught in the act, etc) variation also ends up making little sense once it appears that people passing the end of Buck's Row can be spotted, or at least heard (as Thain was by Neil). Even if he only spotted Paul at 30 or 40 yards, he could still flee the scene, there were lots of ways out of the area to lose Paul, who's not even going to find the body for another 20 or 30 seconds. That's a pretty big head start. The one aspect of this idea that could be a weak point is whether or not PC were easier to hear than others, say due to the boots they wore, or something. Meaning, while Thain might be heard, would that mean Paul also was equally noisy?

- Jeff

[Elamarna]

Hi Steve,

Yes, those are similar to where I was locating him as well, pending on the variation. So far, all the variations I've tried put him up in that area in a position that Cross/Lechmere and Paul can exit out to Baker's Row before PC Neil would be in a position to see them, but close enough that he would find Nichols about the time they meet up with PC Mizen.

- Jeff

Same here, and one position fits very well. But that is probably just coincidence. Since I don't for 1 minute think Mizen and Neil had spot on synchronised time.

Steve

[Elamarna]

Hi Patrick S,

Well, the "wants to bluff it out for laughs" scenario doesn't make sense to me, and I think is just a way to try and save the whole theory given he didn't flee when he had the chance. The "couldn't run" (or decided he was caught in the act, etc) variation also ends up making little sense once it appears that people passing the end of Buck's Row can be spotted, or at least heard (as Thain was by Neil). Even if he only spotted Paul at 30 or 40 yards, he could still flee the scene, there were lots of ways out of the area to lose Paul, who's not even going to find the body for another 20 or 30 seconds. That's a pretty big head start. The one aspect of this idea that could be a weak point is whether or not PC were easier to hear than others, say due to the boots they wore, or something. Meaning, while Thain might be heard, would that mean Paul also was equally noisy?

- Jeff

One point which cannot be ignore is that Neil may have expected Thain to pass the junction. It is very probably that they often saw or at least heard each other.
And such fits with the testimonies of both on their respective beats..
And of course Neil must be favourite for the brother officer who apparently dropped off Thain's cape at the slaughter house.

None of it certain, but inline with the testimonies.


Steve




Steve

[JeffHamm]

Same here, and one position fits very well. But that is probably just coincidence. Since I don't for 1 minute think Mizen and Neil had spot on synchronised time.

Steve

No, there is no reason to think their times are synchronized. I just work with the stated times to see what that produces as a guesstimate, then work out ranges to account for mis-aligned clocks. So far, the stated times more or less result in sensible looking interpretatoins, and the error windows tend to suggest there's a range of times around those stated that also work. So that's encouraging.

- Jeff

[Patrick S]

Hi Patrick S,

Well, the "wants to bluff it out for laughs" scenario doesn't make sense to me, and I think is just a way to try and save the whole theory given he didn't flee when he had the chance. The "couldn't run" (or decided he was caught in the act, etc) variation also ends up making little sense once it appears that people passing the end of Buck's Row can be spotted, or at least heard (as Thain was by Neil). Even if he only spotted Paul at 30 or 40 yards, he could still flee the scene, there were lots of ways out of the area to lose Paul, who's not even going to find the body for another 20 or 30 seconds. That's a pretty big head start. The one aspect of this idea that could be a weak point is whether or not PC were easier to hear than others, say due to the boots they wore, or something. Meaning, while Thain might be heard, would that mean Paul also was equally noisy?

- Jeff

I think it's telling that Griffiths arrived at a conclusion that Cross COULD NOT simply walk away and that Christer didn't correct him. As a former policeman I can only imagine his reaction to the idea that Cross stayed by choice for the thrill and/or because he felt that "bluffing it out" and "scamming" offered him the surest route "past the police" would have been something like, "Hold on... say what?".

I've always maintained that - if he had killed Nichols - Cross' best route out of Buck's Row upon hearing Paul enter would have been to simply walk toward him, passing him, in the dark, before Paul arrived at the spot upon which Nichols lay. Or he could have simply continued on up Buck's Row. There are many obvious, intuitive options, if freedom and survival are the goal... yet we're asked to believe that he chose to simply stand there and await Paul's arrival.

[Abby Normal]

hey gents
good work-but why didn't these police,anyone else, etc. notice the ripper leaving the scene, or anyone else about?

[JeffHamm]

One point which cannot be ignore is that Neil may have expected Thain to pass the junction. It is very probably that they often saw or at least heard each other.
And such fits with the testimonies of both on their respective beats..
And of course Neil must be favourite for the brother officer who apparently dropped off Thain's cape at the slaughter house.

None of it certain, but inline with the testimonies.


Steve


Steve

Oh, good point. Their beats were both about 30 minutes I believe, so they would tend to be in the same positions each cycle (roughly). But he's only got the time to spot him as he passes the end of the street, which is a pretty tiny window of opportunity. Still, as you say, he may be looking because he expects him, which would increase his ability to spot/hear him. Mind you, I can't see JtR also being on the look out, so I think that would apply to him as well, and the position of the body does suggest he would be facing that direction.

- Jeff

[JeffHamm]

hey gents
good work-but why didn't these police,anyone else, etc. notice the ripper leaving the scene, or anyone else about?

Hi Abby,

Well, that's the question. If we can roughly work out where PC Neil was (based on his average speed, and what his beat was, then we can work out what window of time is available that allows JtR to leave the scene and not be spotted, since we know he wasn't. Even if the beat cannot be reconstructed exactly, and there are variations to consider, the variations may still result in overlapping "windows of opportunity". From the windows of opportunity, we might be able to narrow that down a bit based upon the positions of Cross/Lechmere and Paul, and so forth. The idea is to work out what the constraints are, and see what's left that allows for what we know - JtR left unseen. If that ends up being not possible, and there is no "window of opportunity", then that would start to point towards Cross/Lechmere (JtR couldn't have left unseen). At the moment, though, it's looking like there is time for him to escape, and as all the other evidence also tends to indicate that Cross/Lechmere isn't JtR, that's exactly what one would predict. Working out the positions of everybody is a way to further test that hypothesis using the evidence.

- Jeff

[Abby Normal]

Hi Abby,

Well, that's the question. If we can roughly work out where PC Neil was (based on his average speed, and what his beat was, then we can work out what window of time is available that allows JtR to leave the scene and not be spotted, since we know he wasn't. Even if the beat cannot be reconstructed exactly, and there are variations to consider, the variations may still result in overlapping "windows of opportunity". From the windows of opportunity, we might be able to narrow that down a bit based upon the positions of Cross/Lechmere and Paul, and so forth. The idea is to work out what the constraints are, and see what's left that allows for what we know - JtR left unseen. If that ends up being not possible, and there is no "window of opportunity", then that would start to point towards Cross/Lechmere (JtR couldn't have left unseen). At the moment, though, it's looking like there is time for him to escape, and as all the other evidence also tends to indicate that Cross/Lechmere isn't JtR, that's exactly what one would predict. Working out the positions of everybody is a way to further test that hypothesis using the evidence.

- Jeff

hi Jeff
thanks! as it stands though apparently no one else notices anyone about, and I believe another poster had previously raised this point also. It seems a little odd as all the other murder scenes seem to have witnesses, police, etc noticing other people about and possible suspects. no?