Nicola Bulley, what does everybody think?

[erobitha]

Interesting video interview with the man who claimed he found the phone on the bench.

https://news.sky.com/story/nicola-bulley-dog-walker-thought-this-is-not-right-after-finding-phone-12813023

[Aethelwulf]

If she did go in the river I'm also a bit surprised none of her clothing (wellies or coat) has been found, especially if she went through the rougher water at the weir.

[Ms Diddles]

Where I live in Ireland, we have one of the highest rates of suicide in the country. I have been to two funerals in the last three years that were due to suicide.

The reality is if someone is committed to killing themselves they will most likely try and throw as many people off the scent as possible. They often slightly overcompensate by appearing slightly more jovial or making lots of plans with people.

If it was suicide, it would not have been something she just decided to do on a whim. She would have planned it and played it over and over and over again in her head.

Suicide is not a rational mindset so you cannot apply normal rules of rational thought to anything she did or didn't do.

Yeah, I'm in agreement on this Ero.

I also thought that your earlier post about how well organised the morning routine was that day was particularly perceptive.

If that level of organisation was atypical and out of the ordinary, that's a really big red flag in terms of suicidal ideation.

I've done quite a lot of suicide prevention training with my work, and two of the things to look out for are people quietly putting things in order (usually updating a will or clearing out their belongings/ giving stuff away), but doing more chores than normal and getting the kids ready for school in an unusually organised manner would not be inconsistent.

Also it's known that suicidal individuals sometimes experience a sense of relief once the decision has been made. They kind of come to terms with it, so somewhat counter-intuitively calmness and an apparent improvement in mood can be red flags too.

Weird though it seems, it's not that unusual for suicidal people to go about their business in an apparently normal fashion right before the act.

I'm kind of guessing here, but I would imagine that much the same could apply when someone has made a conscious decision to disappear too.

The text arranging a play date is a little weird though.

It would be unusual for a suicidal person to actively be making plans minutes before the act, although it could be that the friend was the one suggesting the arrangement and Nicola just passively agreed in a brief response.

It's hard to say without knowing the content of the messages.

As time goes on I'm leaning more towards suicide / planned disappearance.

I'm hoping for the latter, but fearing it's the former.

[caz]

Where I live in Ireland, we have one of the highest rates of suicide in the country. I have been to two funerals in the last three years that were due to suicide.

The reality is if someone is committed to killing themselves they will most likely try and throw as many people off the scent as possible. They often slightly overcompensate by appearing slightly more jovial or making lots of plans with people.

If it was suicide, it would not have been something she just decided to do on a whim. She would have planned it and played it over and over and over again in her head.

Suicide is not a rational mindset so you cannot apply normal rules of rational thought to anything she did or didn't do.

Hi ero,

Nicola is an intelligent woman and said to be an "incredibly strong" swimmer. If she was capable of planning something like this, I feel she would have picked deeper and faster water for starters. She would have known that the menopause, however bad it gets, doesn't last forever, and her daughters need her now. She would have been very aware of this if she was planning to die.

What worries me is that friends and family say she had driven to that spot for her half hour walk with the dog "thousands of times", which means that anyone in the area could have picked up on this strict routine and known where she would be and when.

It could so easily have been someone else doing the planning, and not Nicola.

Love,

Caz
X

[erobitha]

Hi ero,

Nicola is an intelligent woman and said to be an "incredibly strong" swimmer. If she was capable of planning something like this, I feel she would have picked deeper and faster water for starters. She would have known that the menopause, however bad it gets, doesn't last forever, and her daughters need her now. She would have been very aware of this if she was planning to die.

What worries me is that friends and family say she had driven to that spot for her half hour walk with the dog "thousands of times", which means that anyone in the area could have picked up on this strict routine and known where she would be and when.

It could so easily have been someone else doing the planning, and not Nicola.

Love,

Caz
X

You could well be right, Caz. Right now, we do not have enough details to assume anything conclusively. There may be more the police have that we are not privy to. Or, quite possibly, they have made an absolute mess of the whole case and have done Nicola a massive injustice with their behaviour and handling of the case.

From what I can see, I would lean towards the river being the most likely option. It could be accidental or suicide. Or it could be an abduction by boat. However, with the details we have, I find it very hard to see beyond those possibilities. In my view, all of them are possible in their own way, but suicide would be the most likely I would suggest.

I can only speculate based on what we know.

[Ms Diddles]

Hi ero,

Nicola is an intelligent woman and said to be an "incredibly strong" swimmer. If she was capable of planning something like this, I feel she would have picked deeper and faster water for starters. She would have known that the menopause, however bad it gets, doesn't last forever, and her daughters need her now. She would have been very aware of this if she was planning to die.

What worries me is that friends and family say she had driven to that spot for her half hour walk with the dog "thousands of times", which means that anyone in the area could have picked up on this strict routine and known where she would be and when.

It could so easily have been someone else doing the planning, and not Nicola.

Love,

Caz
X

Hi Caz,

I concur that it's strange for someone who is a strong swimmer to choose such a seemingly innocuous stretch of water.

You make an interesting point about the routine of the walk in the park too, which I had not really considered before.

As far as the temporary nature of menopausal suffering and Nicola's daughter's need for their mum go, suicides are not usually that rational at the point of crisis.

What they know to be true intellectually and what they feel at that time are often completely at odds.

It's really difficult for a person in these circumstances to grasp the notion that their suffering will not last for ever.

It all feels too immediate and overwhelming.

Also the "think of your children / loved ones. How will they cope with this / without you?" technique is discouraged in suicide prevention.

It's been found that often, whilst the suicidal individual loves their kids / family dearly, they simply can't comprehend that they themself are needed.

They tend to be utterly convinced that their loved ones will be better off without them.

Heartwrenchingly sad, but true.

[Wickerman]

They often slightly overcompensate by appearing slightly more jovial or making lots of plans with people.

If it was suicide, it would not have been something she just decided to do on a whim. She would have planned it and played it over and over and over again in her head.

I'm puzzled why she would log into a business call that, by all accounts, did not involved her - she was only listening in, not participating. And, having listened in why put the phone down without logging out, it seems like an open ended thing to do.
It's that minor point that suggests to me she was interrupted. Did someone speak to her, and she intended to return to the call but put the phone down momentarily to respond to whomever came up to her.
Or, did she see something she had to respond to immediately, and put the phone down for a second?

Suicide is not a rational mindset so you cannot apply normal rules of rational thought to anything she did or didn't do.

And yet, suggesting rational solutions will not solve it, is also applying rational thinking.

I'm becoming more inclined to think this is a planned disappearance, or it is a crime and that there was a third party involved somehow.

[Abby Normal]

hey ero, diddles and caz
yes all this makes more and more sense to me and I agree, it does increasingly seem like a possible suicide. but whats so bizarre is that then why is the one closest to her-her boyfriend-so adament that she did not commit suicide and isnt in the river!?!
so wierd.

[Ally]

but whats so bizarre is that then why is the one closest to her-her boyfriend-so adament that she did not commit suicide and isnt in the river!?!
so wierd.

Don't really think it's weird. If you know anyone who has been traumatized by the sudden suicide of a loved one, there's a shedload of guilt attached to the survivors. Like "How did I not know, why didn't I see it, why didn't I stop it, why didn't I do something". There's also the outward blame that people will put on him, "How did you not know your wife/partner was that desperate?" Many people who are left behind with sudden suicides would FAR rather believe that it was a murder, than something their loved one "chose" to inflict on their family. Which is not a rational response, but I've seen it play out, even when circumstances are clear. No, it wasn't suicide, it was an "accidental overdose". No it wasn't suicide, they "shot themselves while cleaning their gun". Or, "No, it was murder".

People are more comforted by something they can "understand" than something senseless. A violent predator, strange as it may sound, is probably more comforting than, "The person I lived with just up and decided to jump in the river". I am not saying she did commit suicide, there's no evidence one way or another, but I totally understand the loved ones not wanting to believe it, even if it's obvious to everyone else. Those closest to you, aren't always the most neutral reporters on what you are likely to do as their own emotional biases will influence what they are willing to accept as "true".

[Abby Normal]

Don't really think it's weird. If you know anyone who has been traumatized by the sudden suicide of a loved one, there's a shedload of guilt attached to the survivors. Like "How did I not know, why didn't I see it, why didn't I stop it, why didn't I do something". There's also the outward blame that people will put on him, "How did you not know your wife/partner was that desperate?" Many people who are left behind with sudden suicides would FAR rather believe that it was a murder, than something their loved one "chose" to inflict on their family. Which is not a rational response, but I've seen it play out, even when circumstances are clear. No, it wasn't suicide, it was an "accidental overdose". No it wasn't suicide, they "shot themselves while cleaning their gun". Or, "No, it was murder".

People are more comforted by something they can "understand" than something senseless. A violent predator, strange as it may sound, is probably more comforting than, "The person I lived with just up and decided to jump in the river". I am not saying she did commit suicide, there's no evidence one way or another, but I totally understand the loved ones not wanting to believe it, even if it's obvious to everyone else. Those closest to you, aren't always the most neutral reporters on what you are likely to do as their own emotional biases will influence what they are willing to accept as "true".

ahh. got it. never thought of it that way. thanks!

[Aethelwulf]

I'm puzzled why she would log into a business call that, by all accounts, did not involved her - she was only listening in, not participating. And, having listened in why put the phone down without logging out, it seems like an open ended thing to do.
It's that minor point that suggests to me she was interrupted. Did someone speak to her, and she intended to return to the call but put the phone down momentarily to respond to whomever came up to her.
Or, did she see something she had to respond to immediately, and put the phone down for a second?




And yet, suggesting rational solutions will not solve it, is also applying rational thinking.

I'm becoming more inclined to think this is a planned disappearance, or it is a crime and that there was a third party involved somehow.

I wonder if it is suicide it's not at the river. Apparently if you go back along the river path and turn left there is no CCTV, that is why the police were asking for dash cam footage on the main road. It's odd that she hasn't been found in the river, given they've had three weeks of totally benign weather to work with. If this is a crime, it could be that someone has called to her under some false pretense 'i need help/i'm lost can you help'. She puts the phone down and goes over.

[Herlock Sholmes]

I wonder if it is suicide it's not at the river. Apparently if you go back along the river path and turn left there is no CCTV, that is why the police were asking for dash cam footage on the main road. It's odd that she hasn't been found in the river, given they've had three weeks of totally benign weather to work with. If this is a crime, it could be that someone has called to her under some false pretense 'i need help/i'm lost can you help'. She puts the phone down and goes over.

The kind of tactic Bundy used. My only point against that suggestion Wulf is that I’m a 57 year old bloke and I wouldn’t leave my phone on a park bench so I just find it difficult to believe that a woman of Nicola’s age would have done it although it’s not impossible of course. It may have been left by an abductor to avoid tracking but why would he go back to the bench and put it there rather than chuck it into the bushes or even better, into the river. I haven’t a clue what happened but the phone might be the strongest pointer to her either ending up in the river or simply walking off as a result of her mental health issues? And it might not of course.

[Herlock Sholmes]

A Daily Mail reporter making an idiotic comment (again)

https://news.sky.com/story/nicola-bulley-ex-police-watchdog-chief-criticises-media-coverage-of-detective-leading-case-this-is-the-21st-century-12813782

[Ms Diddles]

A Daily Mail reporter making an idiotic comment (again)

https://news.sky.com/story/nicola-bu...ntury-12813782

Uggggghhh!

I'm always extra disappointed when it's another woman who engages in this sh!t.

Who cares what the senior investigating officer looks like or how she wears her hair?

Short of turning up to the press conference in a posing pouch, I really can't imagine circumstances when anyone would be discussing this if the SIO was a dude.

I hate it when women buy into this misogynistic crap themselves.

[Aethelwulf]

The kind of tactic Bundy used. My only point against that suggestion Wulf is that I’m a 57 year old bloke and I wouldn’t leave my phone on a park bench so I just find it difficult to believe that a woman of Nicola’s age would have done it although it’s not impossible of course. It may have been left by an abductor to avoid tracking but why would he go back to the bench and put it there rather than chuck it into the bushes or even better, into the river. I haven’t a clue what happened but the phone might be the strongest pointer to her either ending up in the river or simply walking off as a result of her mental health issues? And it might not of course.

I was just thinking that the gate and fence is only a few metres away behind the bench. Given that she was on a conference call and it's only a short distance, I just wondered if she could have put the phone down with the intention of coming straight back. Rather than say putting the phone in her pocket, which I doubt she'd do if on a call. It still looks most like suicide IMO but as I said, you'd have thought they have found her or at least turned up a welly by now.