Nicola Bulley, what does everybody think?

[Abby Normal]

Although it's confusing and frustrating for us, the police evidently don't think it will help at this stage to elaborate. I'm not sure why they said anything, because it was bound to create more public speculation, but they presumably have their reasons.

The thing is, Nicola is not here to confirm or deny these unspecified, but supposedly 'specific' vulnerabilities, so the police will have needed to know who else knew about them, among her friends, work colleagues, other family members or medical professionals, before assessing their potential relevance to her disappearance. What we don't yet understand is why this aspect has only been made public now, and in such a cryptic and ambiguous fashion. If her vulnerabilities are of a private nature, known only to her partner, that would only add to the mystery. It's possible that the police are hoping someone will come forward with details about her life that have not been made public, and could confirm or contradict the information they already have to work with.

Alternatively, the police may simply have wanted to justify their own position, of not suspecting anyone else's involvement, and wrongly imagined that mentioning Nicola's existing "vulnerabilities", without further qualification, would suffice. If so, I think that was a mistake.

Love,

Caz
X

of course it is. if they werent going to elaborate , they should have just not said it. specific vulnerabilities, high risk.. could mean anything from the general a woman alone in a park to that she was having mental issues, to she was an online sex worker. or many other different meanings. all which imply very different scenarios for her disapearance. they need to clear it up what they meant asap.

and again it may help solve it if the public knew.

[caz]

Alternatively, the police may simply have wanted to justify their own position, of not suspecting anyone else's involvement, and wrongly imagined that mentioning Nicola's existing "vulnerabilities", without further qualification, would suffice. If so, I think that was a mistake.

Oh crikey, it looks like the police are trying to justify their 'no third party' position, using alleged problems Nicola was recently having with the menopause and alcohol in that regard. If so, it's an absolute disgrace, and is not evidence that she went into the river - especially as her partner is so sure that something else has happened to her.

Just heard there was a welfare check made at their home, two weeks before Nicola's disappearance.

I still think the police were wrong to make any assumptions - particularly in public - based on a complete lack of physical evidence to explain what happened to the poor woman.

Love,

Caz
X

[Bridewell]

Have they said whether she could swim or not Ero?

She was described as a strong swimmer some time ago.

[Herlock Sholmes]

She was described as a strong swimmer some time ago.

Cheers Colin. I missed it.

[Bridewell]

The "specific vulnerabilities" would, I think, have to relate to her personal circumstances. A physically healthy 45 year old woman wouldn't be immediately classified as "high risk" just because she was last seen walking her dog alongside a river. In terms of the police investigation, the only thing I would take issue with is the failure to seal off the bench and surrounding area because you should always assume the possibility of foul play until that has been categorically ruled out. That's basic routine and it should have been done. The SIO spoke of various tests having been done with regard to the mobile phone. If the scene had been properly secured that could have included fingerprint analysis but I suspect that the failure to preserve the scene has lost any forensic evidence there may once have been.

[Abby Normal]

Oh crikey, it looks like the police are trying to justify their 'no third party' position, using alleged problems Nicola was recently having with the menopause and alcohol in that regard. If so, it's an absolute disgrace, and is not evidence that she went into the river - especially as her partner is so sure that something else has happened to her.

Just heard there was a welfare check made at their home, two weeks before Nicola's disappearance.

I still think the police were wrong to make any assumptions - particularly in public - based on a complete lack of physical evidence to explain what happened to the poor woman.

Love,

Caz
X

seems like she was having some mental/health issues---police going to a home to do a welfare check is surely an indicator of it being at least somewhat serious. and of course points toward possible suicide or voluntarily missing.

Its why i asked in my first post if she was having mental issues.

Knowing all this now, I would say a better chance she committed suicide in the river (and they simply havent found her body), but I still lean toward abduction.

[Ms Diddles]

Oh crikey, it looks like the police are trying to justify their 'no third party' position, using alleged problems Nicola was recently having with the menopause and alcohol in that regard. If so, it's an absolute disgrace, and is not evidence that she went into the river - especially as her partner is so sure that something else has happened to her.

Just heard there was a welfare check made at their home, two weeks before Nicola's disappearance.

I still think the police were wrong to make any assumptions - particularly in public - based on a complete lack of physical evidence to explain what happened to the poor woman.

Love,

Caz
X

Agreed Caz!

The introduction of "specific vulnerabilities " was always going to fan the flames and add to the speculation.

It's entirely up in the air as to whether or not these "vulnerabilities" have any bearing on whatever has happened.

Who knows?

I suppose this could be seen as slightly increasing the possibility of a breakdown / voluntary disappearance which (although still very sad and disturbing) is probably the most positive (or least awful) of the potential outcomes.

[Darryl Kenyon]

Sadly some people who have had/are struggling with alcohol dependency will try their hardest to hide it. My mother who was a recovering alcoholic [ she thankfully didn't touch a drop for the last thirty years of her life ] would, when dependent hide bottles of Vodka. I don't like saying this but there may be a possibility that Nicola hid some alcohol down by the riverbank just below or above water surface.

Darryl

[Abby Normal]

Agreed Abby!

That's why I'm curious about the content of that call.

Did something transpire which resulted in the disappearance?

It's rather a vague theory I know!

Hi Dids
Now that we know she was having some mental health issues, serious enough to warrant a police welfare check, maybe something DID happen on that call that pushed her over the edge. Was she reprimanded, fired? was there an announcement of a re org that would negatively affect her position??

[Ms Diddles]

Hi Dids
Now that we know she was having some mental health issues, serious enough to warrant a police welfare check, maybe something DID happen on that call that pushed her over the edge. Was she reprimanded, fired? was there an announcement of a re org that would negatively affect her position??

Yeah, that's pretty much what I was thinking.

I've been pondering that police welfare check too.

In the course of my work I quite often have to call the police to request such checks

It can be something or nothing.

It can be because myself, other workers or friends / family have serious concerns about someone who is extremely vulnerable, or at the other end of the scale it can be because some organisations who support individuals have crazy tight missing person protocols, so as soon as the supported person fails to answer their phone or respond to messages, all hell breaks loose and protocols dictate that a welfare check is necessary.

Some of the people I work with are quite vulnerable and high risk though.

I'd imagine that it's quite unusual in relation to a middle class professional person with family and friends for support.

[caz]

Something still doesn't add up, because Nicola's partner is so adamant she didn't end up in the river.

If the police in 2023 start a missing persons enquiry with an assumption that it was most likely self-inflicted based on the woman's alleged problems with the menopause and alcohol, are they going to do their very best to eliminate all other possibilities, when there is no direct evidence that she did anything to harm herself - at 9.30 in the morning with her dog, and her two daughters dropped off at school as usual? She was apparently trusted to do that and drive the car without mishap, so how do we know what actually triggered the welfare check, and what was established about her vulnerabilities during this visit?

Love,

Caz
X

[Bridewell]

Something still doesn't add up, because Nicola's partner is so adamant she didn't end up in the river.

If the police in 2023 start a missing persons enquiry with an assumption that it was most likely self-inflicted based on the woman's alleged problems with the menopause and alcohol, are they going to do their very best to eliminate all other possibilities, when there is no direct evidence that she did anything to harm herself - at 9.30 in the morning with her dog, and her two daughters dropped off at school as usual? She was apparently trusted to do that and drive the car without mishap, so how do we know what actually triggered the welfare check, and what was established about her vulnerabilities during this visit?

Love,

Caz
X

Hi Caz,

Nicola's partner, perhaps sub-consciously, doesn't want to believe she ended up in the river because that will mean only one thing. I suspect it's more that he's in denial than that he has a genuine belief that she's still around. You cling to the hope of a best case scenario, however unlikely it may be.

[erobitha]

According to the BBC she had alcohol issues and struggles with the menopause.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-englan...shire-64656669

Couple that with the police claiming they see no evidence of a crime being committed, all adds up to the picture that suicide is the most likely outcome.

It seems that’s what the police want the world to think, so unless they are not showing all their cards and this is some kind of tactic to lure an abductor into a false sense of security, I can’t help but think this is what the police actually believe has happened.

The odds of her knowing which CCTV was working and which one was not is slightly better than a third party criminal.

One detail that I find interesting is the husband’s assessment of their routine that morning. With two young kids myself, I know what he means he describes it is usually chaos. However, on this morning everything was calm and already done by the time he went downstairs. That type of behaviour is not uncommon in people who have made their minds up to kill themselves. Try and make things as least obvious as possible to disguise their true goal. Same thing as being on the trams call. She could have been planning this for months.

Suicide is very plausible here, despite what some may think.

[Herlock Sholmes]

The police are getting criticism for mentioning her issues and some have said that this is ‘victim blaming’ but I have to say that I struggle to see how the police might be blaming her for her disappearance or how it would benefit them to do that? Couldn’t these revelations be an act of desperation from a police force who suspect that there might not be an innocent explanation like falling in the river? Could it be a ‘message’ to anyone who might be holding her against her will? A plea for sympathetic treatment? I know that the police have hardly been blameless in its treatment of female victims at times but I can’t see this as an example of ‘victim blaming?’

https://news.sky.com/story/nicola-bulley-ex-detective-says-police-have-destroyed-missing-mums-reputation-by-revealing-alcohol-struggles-12812221

Id be interested to here others opinions on this point.

[erobitha]

Now the expert diver who did not believe she was in the river has changed his tune. Basically saying if she was suicidal there is every chance she did go in the river and her body is out to sea.

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/uk-news/nicola-bulley-search-experts-u-26250772.amp