Originally posted by Wickerman
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Well, the sighting is an "if it was true..." bit of evidence, and that means it might not be. There are good arguments for being cautious about it as well, so it's what I think of as a break point in lines of reasoning that get risky to travel beyond. If it's not true, what I suggested would fall down (which is why I started with the ever necessary "if this it was true ...", which you also rightly include). On the other hand, at least it's not necessary that Astrakhan man be "true", because Kelly would have been paid by Blotchy Face, and so at some point after that transaction may have gone out for her meal, for example.
But, returning to the "if it was a true sighting ...", and let's say it was by Lewis and she's mis-identified in this report. Lewis's testimony would move it closer to 2:30ish, and before her sighting of the man (Hutch probably) waiting at the end of Miller's Court. If the time is right but that wasn't Hutchinson, then Hutchinson's story is wrong or never happened, and the Britannia event was closer to 2:30 than 3:00. If Mrs. Lewis mis-read the clock and it was 3:30 and not 2:30, all things work again. A lot of these pieces don't fit together as they start to contradict each other, which tells us there's an error in the evidence somewhere. But that's the rub, figuring out what bits of the evidence are the wrong buts? Depending upon which piece we flag as wrong can change everything that follows, and they don't all lead to the same conclusions.
I tend to like to find these junction points, where different lines become reasonably possible, after which speculation allows us to formulate hypotheses, and sometimes those can be tested with existing data. If all reasonable hypotheses that follow are ruled out, it can suggest an answer to the previously unknown direction. Sadly, most times we're just left with more and more unconstrained possibilities.
- Jeff
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