Elizabeth Stride ..who killed her ?

[Sam Flynn]

Oh Lord, please don't let this turn into another statistical probability thread. Statistics ain't gonna solve this mystery. They just ain't.

I agree that stats can't solve it, CD, but they can certainly illuminate the case. Simply "believing" that a Double Event is so unlikely that it must have been the work of a single killer neither solves nor illuminates anything.

Hello CD. "Statistics ain't gonna solve this mystery. They just ain't."

I think I love you.

Give me empiricism over gut feeling any day of the week, or any hour of a Victorian East End night for that matter

[lynn cates]

It may be love.

Hello CD.

"Statistics ain't gonna solve this mystery. They just ain't."

I think I love you.

Cheers.
LC

[c.d.]

Not forgetting the ravenous dog theory AKA, Jack Russell, the Terrier of Mitre square.

Who can forget the Autumn of Terrier?

c.d.

[c.d.]

Hello Michael,

Let's assume for the sake of argument that Liz was in fact there that night to clean. How in the world would Jack know that from simply observing a single woman out by herself late at night? She does not have to be ACTIVELY soliciting to be approached by Jack. And once approached and engaged in conversation what would prevent Jack from saying I know a way you can make a little money that doesn't involve cleaning? We have absolutely no way of knowing what her response would be.

The bottom line is that making your Liz wasn't soliciting argument over and over proves nothing because she only needs to be approached by Jack and all bets are off.

c.d.

[c.d.]

Oh Lord, please don't let this turn into another statistical probability thread. Statistics ain't gonna solve this mystery. They just ain't.

c.d.

[Wickerman]

Not forgetting the ravenous dog theory AKA, Jack Russell, the Terrier of Mitre square.

[Harry D]

Along with a plethora of "What if`s" "Maybe`s" "I think" "What could`s" all postulated in a manner that Hans Christian Anderson would have been proud of

Like WHAT IF the organs were stolen by organ thieves, and MAYBE Eddowes's bloody "apron" was a menstrual rag WHAT COULD have been picked up by a giant rat?

[Sam Flynn]

yes...by a statistical evaluation it seems probable that the Double Event was done by one person....

Of course, I don't subscribe to that view, Mike. Given the demographic data alone, it is practically certain that there was more than one person capable of grave assault and/or murder at any given time in that area. That we should see, once in a while, two entirely unconnected murders within an hour needn't faze us in the least.

however, the variables in this particular warrant additional filters...

Totally agree - but, purely in terms of estimating probability, we should not fall into the heuristic trap of concluding that the Double Event was such a huge coincidence that it was probably the work of a single killer. This simply isn't the case.

[Trevor Marriott]

Hello Gareth. Absolutely. I despair at listening to probabilities that X will/will not occur.

Cheers.
LC

Along with a plethora of "What if`s" "Maybe`s" "I think" "What could`s" all postulated in a manner that Hans Christian Anderson would have been proud of

https://www.trevormarriott.co.uk

[lynn cates]

What are the odds?

Hello Gareth. Absolutely. I despair at listening to probabilities that X will/will not occur.

Cheers.
LC

[Rosella]

We don't know how many Jews Liz was working for. Her payment could have been as little as one shilling, or two sixpences per two jobs in total. How long that would last with rent to pay, food to buy as well as drink at local pubs, heaven knows.
You keep repeating in various posts that Liz was going to clean the working men's club. There is no evidence at all that she was going to do so, especially at that hour of the night. She was seen with a male a little earlier in the night by PC Smith, so at the very least she was certainly socialising with one male that evening, and then got into an argument with another, if Schwartz is to be believed.

[Michael W Richards]

I roughly worked it out years ago, Harry, but no longer have the precise figures. Not that I'd pretend they were "precisely" correct - it was more an "order-of-magnitude" calculation, to give an idea of what kind of odds we're likely talking about. This was sufficient to satisfy me that two murders within an hour, on the same night, in one of the more troubled parts of London, was scarcely a mind-boggling coincidence.

A feel for the odds can be gained by dividing the night into hours, getting stats/frequencies of assaults involving knives, murder statistics, taking into account the high population-density, etc. Using those kinds of data, I think my rough figure for a "Two-Killer Double Event" was somewhere in the mid/high tens of thousands to one, which - even if out by a factor of 100 - is still two orders of magnitude smaller than the odds of scooping a Lotto jackpot.

Of course, these are all longish odds by everyday standards, but given sufficiently high Lottery ticket sales - or, in the case of the Double Event, a dense population with its fair share of violent, criminal, drunken and/or mentally disturbed residents - the numbers will turn out to be (un)lucky for some, and more often than one might think.

Polishing up the old skill set I see, Sam.

Youre making a valuable point here, yes...by a statistical evaluation it seems probable that the Double Event was done by one person....however, the variables in this particular warrant additional filters. Like the fact Liz had been working among the Jews at that time, relevant when killed standing in a passageway operated by local Jews outside a club that would definitely need cleaning after a large meeting, ...that the police considered this location to be populated by Anarchists, something that is perhaps proven by the riot with police in that yard the following year. Liz Strides seeming preoccupation with her presentation on that night,...flowers, breath mints, lint brushes...Liz Strides recent split with a long time beau.....the fact that it would appear by one witness that she was in that passageway before she meets her killer..see Fannys statements as to the street activity and her perch to see it all from 12:30 until 1am...off and on.

But the largest filter has to be based on the double cut throats and body positioning. Any later victim of the killer of Polly and Annie would almost certainly have inflicted upon her most, if not all, of the same physical elements. Double throat cut on the ground after subduing the victim silently. Lifting of the skirt, spreading of the legs.

Liz Stride is left untouched after a single slice that may have been inflicted upon her while she was falling.

Cheers Sam

[Sam Flynn]

Out of interest, how did you calculate the odds of the Double-Event?

I roughly worked it out years ago, Harry, but no longer have the precise figures. Not that I'd pretend they were "precisely" correct - it was more an "order-of-magnitude" calculation, to give an idea of what kind of odds we're likely talking about. This was sufficient to satisfy me that two murders within an hour, on the same night, in one of the more troubled parts of London, was scarcely a mind-boggling coincidence.

A feel for the odds can be gained by dividing the night into hours, getting stats/frequencies of assaults involving knives, murder statistics, taking into account the high population-density, etc. Using those kinds of data, I think my rough figure for a "Two-Killer Double Event" was somewhere in the mid/high tens of thousands to one, which - even if out by a factor of 100 - is still two orders of magnitude smaller than the odds of scooping a Lotto jackpot.

Of course, these are all longish odds by everyday standards, but given sufficiently high Lottery ticket sales - or, in the case of the Double Event, a dense population with its fair share of violent, criminal, drunken and/or mentally disturbed residents - the numbers will turn out to be (un)lucky for some, and more often than one might think.

[Harry D]

The odds of winning the UK National Lottery are 14 million to one, which are significantly longer than the odds of the Double Event being the work of two murderers. Even in light of these long odds, the Lottery jackpot is won on a fairly regular basis, and the same winning numbers are often shared by more than one (non-syndicated) winner. Seen in that context, the idea that Stride and Eddowes were the victims of two different killers is not difficult to believe at all.

Out of interest, how did you calculate the odds of the Double-Event?

[Sam Flynn]

It's too much of a coincidence

The odds of winning the UK National Lottery are 14 million to one, which are significantly longer than the odds of the Double Event being the work of two murderers. Even in light of these long odds, the Lottery jackpot is won on a fairly regular basis, and the same winning numbers are often shared by more than one (non-syndicated) winner. Seen in that context, the idea that Stride and Eddowes were the victims of two different killers is not difficult to believe at all.