A problem with the "Eddowes Shawl" DNA match

[Abby Normal]

Hello Colin. Thanks.

My remarks were not directed to you. But logic trumps science--always.

Cheers.
LC

uhh-no. Sorry there Spock. ; ) Did logic trump the science in terms of Quantum mechanics and its totally "illogical" conclusions?

Logic doesn't always trump Science nor does Science always trump Logic.

The TRUTH trumps them both.

[Monty]

The reveal of this story, and the science behind it, has been shoddy. It shows utter contempt (rightly or wrongly) for this field of study.

The bottom line is that we are still awaiting peer review. The weekend comments by Jefferies et al are just that, comments. They need to be party to the full process because it is only then a true assessment can be made.

The ball is firmly in Dr Jari's court. Either he puts up....or shuts up.

Monty

[Chris]

The ball is firmly in Dr Jari's court. Either he puts up....or shuts up.

I was rather hoping he might say something.

[Monty]

I was rather hoping he might say something.

He really needs to, for his own benefit.

Monty

[Simon Wood]

Hi All,

Methinks they're in a corner, desperately hoping that by the time the paint dries everyone will have forgotten the book's nonsensical premise.

Regards,

Simon

[tji]

I was rather hoping he might say something.

Ooops?




Seriously though as mentioned I do wonder why he isn't, surely he must realise the longer it takes the worse it will probably be. it isn't something that is going to go away anymore.

[Peter Griffith aka gryff]

Ripper Tours

I note from RE's website that he has a JTR tour this evening 20/10/2014.

Tour

Must be starting about now.

And then there is a set of Halloween tours coming up from 25/10/2014 to 31/10/2014.

Given the breaking of the "serious DNA error" story in press around the world, I wonder how these tours will go.

cheers, gryff

[Peter Griffith aka gryff]

Waiting it out

Hi All,

Methinks they're in a corner, desperately hoping that by the time the paint dries everyone will have forgotten the book's nonsensical premise.

Regards,

Simon

Agree that RE and the publisher maybe trying to wait it out, but Dr JL -he has a reputation with scientific colleagues to deal with which is perhaps not so easily forgotten.

And in Dr JL's case, what legal agreements may be binding him.

cheers, gryff

[Chris]

Seriously though as mentioned I do wonder why he isn't, surely he must realise the longer it takes the worse it will probably be. it isn't something that is going to go away anymore.

I suppose he may be looking at the DNA profile with a view to claiming the match is still statistically significant, even without 314.1C.

But if he does make that claim, will anyone take it on trust, unless he's willing to release the data to back it up?

[RockySullivan]

I'n the first to admit I'm an idiot but my understanding is that the error was with Eddowes "match". So where does that leave Koz "match". If the Shawl doesn't have eddowes dna...there's nothing that connects it to the ripper. I'm assuming like I have from the start that Koz match is not a match at all, but just a very generic test? Where does the eddowes "error" leave Koz "match"?

[mickreed]

I'n the first to admit I'm an idiot but my understanding is that the error was with Eddowes "match". So where does that leave Koz "match". If the Shawl doesn't have eddowes dna...there's nothing that connects it to the ripper. I'm assuming like I have from the start that Koz match is not a match at all, but just a very generic test? Where does the eddowes "error" leave Koz "match"?

Good point, Rocky. The Eddowes 'match' had, superficially, some significance, at least from the way it's presented in the book. That's gone by the look of it.

The Kosminski match, to my mind was never, even remotely, convincing. A match of some sort with an unidentified descendent apparently they belonged to the same haplogroup T1a1 which was said to be 'typical' of East European Jews, when in fact it's not at all typical, being held by well under 5% of that population.

It is however a common enough haplogroup in other populations. Not at all rare generally, but rarer in East European Jews. It was another case of a straw house built on sand.

It seems like a lifetime ago, but initially Debs, Fish, myself and others thought that was the real weak spot in RE's case.

[tji]

[QUOTE]

I suppose he may be looking at the DNA profile with a view to claiming the match is still statistically significant, even without 314.1C.

I bet those odds would be nowhere near what they quoted previously though.

But if he does make that claim, will anyone take it on trust, unless he's willing to release the data to back it up?

That's a good point Chris, by refusing any type of peer review of his work he may now have boxed himself in. I don't think many are going to take his word at face value unless he can redeem it somehow.

[RockySullivan]

Good point, Rocky. The Eddowes 'match' had, superficially, some significance, at least from the way it's presented in the book. That's gone by the look of it.

The Kosminski match, to my mind was never, even remotely, convincing. A match of some sort with an unidentified descendent apparently they belonged to the same haplogroup T1a1 which was said to be 'typical' of East European Jews, when in fact it's not at all typical, being held by well under 5% of that population.

It is however a common enough haplogroup in other populations. Not at all rare generally, but rarer in East European Jews. It was another case of a straw house built on sand.

It seems like a lifetime ago, but initially Debs, Fish, myself and others thought that was the real weak spot in RE's case.

Thanks mick, so there never really was anything that points to Koz on shawl, or even someone of Eastern European Jewish ethnicity? And now we know eddowes DNA is not on the shawl. All in all, if Russell Edwards really paid the 750k...maybe he's the sucker after all. Let's hope Russell Edwards isn't "solving" anymore cold cases anytime soon like he said he planned...or some innocent people might the target of another frame job

[richardh]

from: This News Article - "The conclusion reached in the book, that Aaron Kosminski was Jack the Ripper, relies on much more than this one figure."

Well I've just finished reading the book and I have to say that apart from the DNA 'evidence' the rest is just supposition. I REALLY wanted to believe and I really think RE had the best of intentions. He's spend lots of his own money in his pursuit of the answer. He's just gone about it the wrong way. He's not unbiased. he had an agenda (conscious or unconscious) and I think he tottered along dismissing the things that didn't fit while hanging on to the things that boosted his argument and slotted in with his suspect.

The long and short of it is that the DNA data needs to be peer reviewed and tested. Then at least there would be something concrete that we can all trust.

[mickreed]

I suppose he may be looking at the DNA profile with a view to claiming the match is still statistically significant, even without 314.1C.

But if he does make that claim, will anyone take it on trust, unless he's willing to release the data to back it up?

One of my contacts has been told that JL 'can answer his critics'. I don't know who told my contact this, although I could hazard a guess.

If he can then he needs to - quickly. What is certain, I think, is that he can only do so with data that are not in the book. Personally I think it's hugely unlikely that he can The mistake he has made is so elementary, that he will need a heavily peer-reviewed article to counter it successfully.

Silence will not be golden in this case.