Hi Herlock,

Interesting analysis. I've redone what you suggested, and get the same thing (3 combinations that produce a "negative gap", meaning he arrives in under 7 minutes).

While I understand your idea that "too large a gap" might be worth questioning (why would he still be there, etc), I think one would have to view this as follows. The larger gaps arise when he actually leaves earlier, therefore he has more time available before he needs to worry about being late for work and that gives him more time to engage with Nichols and determine if "now is a good time".

I'm thinking, though, that because the "Cross/Lechmere departure times" would be based upon his testimony, and therefore his clock, while the meeting up with Paul times come from Paul's testimony (and therefore Paul's clock"), if throwing out those "negative gaps" is necessary?

Rather, it seems to me we could factor in ranges of "gaps" that reflect what we would could reasonably expect to obtain simply due to the fact that two different clocks are being used. From what I've read, and from what others have posted, it would not be considered unusual if two clocks differed by 10 minutes. As such, any calculated gap based upon two different clocks could simply reflect nothing more that clock sync error even if in reality there was no gap at all. I think we would be remiss not to factor in this very real and known aspect with regards to clocks in 1888.

So, with that in mind, I've looked at how many gaps exceed 10 minutes, as these are the gaps that appear unusually large.

Out of the entire set of combinations, only 3 out of the 55 "gaps" exceed 10 minutes, 2 from when Cross/Lechmere leaves at 3:25, and one when he leaves at 3:26.

I've then included a meeting up time of 3:45 as well, resulting in 66 combinations of departures and meeting times, and this adds another 3 combinations (one more each for leaving at 3:25 and 3:26, and now one as well for leaving at 3:27), so only 6 out 66 "gaps" would be considered large enough that they could not be accounted for simply by clock sync error.

It's an interesting approach, thanks for sharing it. I've made a few, sadly unsuccessful, searches to try and find out more specific details with regards to just how out of sync clocks were, but so far all I've found are statements like 10 minutes was common, etc, but no real details on how that was determined. It's a shame. If we had some raw data on that, it would really assist us all in evaluating apparent discrepancies in stated times. Are they nothing more than the fact we know two clocks were likely to read two different times?

- Jeff

Originally posted by

**Herlock Sholmes**View PostWhile I understand your idea that "too large a gap" might be worth questioning (why would he still be there, etc), I think one would have to view this as follows. The larger gaps arise when he actually leaves earlier, therefore he has more time available before he needs to worry about being late for work and that gives him more time to engage with Nichols and determine if "now is a good time".

I'm thinking, though, that because the "Cross/Lechmere departure times" would be based upon his testimony, and therefore his clock, while the meeting up with Paul times come from Paul's testimony (and therefore Paul's clock"), if throwing out those "negative gaps" is necessary?

Rather, it seems to me we could factor in ranges of "gaps" that reflect what we would could reasonably expect to obtain simply due to the fact that two different clocks are being used. From what I've read, and from what others have posted, it would not be considered unusual if two clocks differed by 10 minutes. As such, any calculated gap based upon two different clocks could simply reflect nothing more that clock sync error even if in reality there was no gap at all. I think we would be remiss not to factor in this very real and known aspect with regards to clocks in 1888.

So, with that in mind, I've looked at how many gaps exceed 10 minutes, as these are the gaps that appear unusually large.

Out of the entire set of combinations, only 3 out of the 55 "gaps" exceed 10 minutes, 2 from when Cross/Lechmere leaves at 3:25, and one when he leaves at 3:26.

I've then included a meeting up time of 3:45 as well, resulting in 66 combinations of departures and meeting times, and this adds another 3 combinations (one more each for leaving at 3:25 and 3:26, and now one as well for leaving at 3:27), so only 6 out 66 "gaps" would be considered large enough that they could not be accounted for simply by clock sync error.

It's an interesting approach, thanks for sharing it. I've made a few, sadly unsuccessful, searches to try and find out more specific details with regards to just how out of sync clocks were, but so far all I've found are statements like 10 minutes was common, etc, but no real details on how that was determined. It's a shame. If we had some raw data on that, it would really assist us all in evaluating apparent discrepancies in stated times. Are they nothing more than the fact we know two clocks were likely to read two different times?

- Jeff

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