Jack's Escape Route?

[JeffHamm]

An excellent and fair assessment as ever Jeff. I’d just throw in another possibility (and it’s one that’s been mentioned before of course). What if Harvey wasn’t as diligent as he might have been and only stood at the top of Church Passage without down going to the entry to Mitre Square? There’s no evidence to back this possibility up of course but we do know that Harvey dismissed from the force for reasons unknown just 10 months or so later.

Thank Herlock.

That's certainly possible. There was a lamp at the Mitre Square end of Church Passage, and PC Harvey may only have gone so far up, to verify the passage was empty. Given he could see the lit portion from a distance, and given Mitre Square isn't part of his beat, there would be no need to physically walk up to the end, only verify there was nothing to see.

And the lamp would make it hard for him to see past it and into the darkness of Mitre Square, so it would be unlikely for him to see JtR.

- Jeff

[JeffHamm]

Hi Jeff,

Another fine simulation, well done. My thinking is that if JtR had knowledge of the beat timings his best choice was to follow Harvey, who was departing, rather than to risk bumping into the approaching Watkins. If Watkins was a minute or so early on his beat he could have been very close to the Mitre St entrance when Jack peeked out to see if the coast was clear. He knew exactly where Harvey was, but Watkin's exact location was an unknown. Probably irrelevant, but the latter escape route via Mitre St puts me in mind of the Stephen White account.

It seems that if Jack left just as Harvey started down the passage, or froze and left just after Harvey's departure, he had a little less than five minutes to perpetrate the actual murder and mutilations. Would that be your assessment?

Best regards, George

Hi George,

In the simulation, from the time they reach the crime scene until the time JtR flees works out to about 6 minutes. If we go with Levey's estimate of when the rain stopped, at 1:33 rather than 1:35, then there would be about 8 minutes.

And I can see the reasoning for following Harvey, particularly if he froze and had to wait it out. It's whether or not JtR followed the same line of thought that is the question!

- Jeff

[Christian]

Hi BooksbyBJTompson,

Assessing the risk, or more critically, Jack's sense of risk at the time, is difficult due to the subjective nature of risk. It will depend upon what prompted JtR to leave the scene.

There are two events that happen very close in time, according to statements, that could have interrupted JtR and caused him to flee. Those events are PC Harvey's patrol of Church Passage, which appears to occur very close in time to when Morris opens the door of the warehouse during his cleaning up. As such, we don't know which of those events actually happens first. Either, however, could very well have alerted JtR and caused him to depart. Given the location of Church Passage, if PC Harvey arrives first, heading out through Mitre Street would get him away from PC Harvey's sight fastest and head him in a direction away from PC Harvey. Similarly, given the location of the warehouse, which is next to Church Passage, Mitre Street is the exit that maximizes his distance from a potential witness. Heading towards St. James Passage requires him to get closer to the potential witness, and so to me that seems less likely. Also, Blenkinsop, who was on standing duty in St. James as a security guard, didn't notice anyone exiting at that end (and while that's not definitive, it does make that route less likely to some extent - we have weak evidence against it).

Of course, if he leaves before either of those events, then St. James Passage could be viewed as more probable for the reasons you give but if he's chosen to leave (rather than the above "forced to flee"), Mitre Street is the closest exit and getting onto a main street might be desirable as it provides some cover due to being on a main street isn't going to make one suspicious looking (until, of course, the body is discovered and a search begins; so again, it now comes down to how JtR evaluated all of those things).

The most "Hollywood" suited route, of course, is for JtR to "wait out" the two interruptions (the argument being that he decides it is better to freeze in place than risk his movement being spotted), and then to exit via Church Passage behind PC Havey (knowing that route will be clear now, and having seen PC Harvey turn right upon his exiting, he knows he can turn left and avoid the PC who has that beat). My personal view is that is just a bit too dramatic for real life and even if he did "wait it out", I think he would still be prone to exit into Mitre Street due to its proximity. He could peer around the corner to see if there's a PC visible, and if not, off he goes, and if there is, he has the option of two other possible routes. And since PC Watkins isn't in view, Mitre Street becomes viable.

So, and this is only my opinion, I tend to think the most probable exit was via Mitre Street. It seems to me to be the least risky, particularly if he was prompted to flee by either Morris's door opening or PC Harvey's patrol. Even if he leaves on his own accord, Mitre Street, being the closest (and empty, which he could have verified before stepping out into it), also seems the most logical for him to choose. But, people don't always do the most logical thing (and JtR's decision to murder and mutilate in public does not rank high on the logical scale after all), so perhaps that's the wrong way to evaluate this. And, the other exits offer their own benefits, which JtR may have weighed differently than I am. So, who's to know?

Based upon the simulations, though, Mitre Street (heading north), St. James Passage, and a delayed exit via Church Passage, all could work, so all need to be considered as viable. The last, as I say, is a bit Hollywood, but sometimes reality is stranger than fiction, so ...

- Jeff

Have to agree Mitre Street would be the least risky!! Both passages very narrow 100% a trap if seen exiting crime scene or whistle blown!! But my conclusion possibly he just didn’t care or give exit much thought? And or would be prepared to fight his escape if cornered!! Who knows!!

[Herlock Sholmes]

Wouldn’t it be a strange if in actual fact the killer had been disturbed by the couple seen by Lawende and co? What if, just after Watkins left at 1.30, Eddowes walked through Mitre Square and bumped into Jack coming from Mitre Street? He kills her and begins his work. In the meantime the man and woman have arrived at the spot in Duke Street. Then sometime after Lawende and co passed they began to argue and voices were raised. The killer scarpers.

[Herlock Sholmes]

Hi BooksbyBJTompson,

Assessing the risk, or more critically, Jack's sense of risk at the time, is difficult due to the subjective nature of risk. It will depend upon what prompted JtR to leave the scene.

There are two events that happen very close in time, according to statements, that could have interrupted JtR and caused him to flee. Those events are PC Harvey's patrol of Church Passage, which appears to occur very close in time to when Morris opens the door of the warehouse during his cleaning up. As such, we don't know which of those events actually happens first. Either, however, could very well have alerted JtR and caused him to depart. Given the location of Church Passage, if PC Harvey arrives first, heading out through Mitre Street would get him away from PC Harvey's sight fastest and head him in a direction away from PC Harvey. Similarly, given the location of the warehouse, which is next to Church Passage, Mitre Street is the exit that maximizes his distance from a potential witness. Heading towards St. James Passage requires him to get closer to the potential witness, and so to me that seems less likely. Also, Blenkinsop, who was on standing duty in St. James as a security guard, didn't notice anyone exiting at that end (and while that's not definitive, it does make that route less likely to some extent - we have weak evidence against it).

Of course, if he leaves before either of those events, then St. James Passage could be viewed as more probable for the reasons you give but if he's chosen to leave (rather than the above "forced to flee"), Mitre Street is the closest exit and getting onto a main street might be desirable as it provides some cover due to being on a main street isn't going to make one suspicious looking (until, of course, the body is discovered and a search begins; so again, it now comes down to how JtR evaluated all of those things).

The most "Hollywood" suited route, of course, is for JtR to "wait out" the two interruptions (the argument being that he decides it is better to freeze in place than risk his movement being spotted), and then to exit via Church Passage behind PC Havey (knowing that route will be clear now, and having seen PC Harvey turn right upon his exiting, he knows he can turn left and avoid the PC who has that beat). My personal view is that is just a bit too dramatic for real life and even if he did "wait it out", I think he would still be prone to exit into Mitre Street due to its proximity. He could peer around the corner to see if there's a PC visible, and if not, off he goes, and if there is, he has the option of two other possible routes. And since PC Watkins isn't in view, Mitre Street becomes viable.

So, and this is only my opinion, I tend to think the most probable exit was via Mitre Street. It seems to me to be the least risky, particularly if he was prompted to flee by either Morris's door opening or PC Harvey's patrol. Even if he leaves on his own accord, Mitre Street, being the closest (and empty, which he could have verified before stepping out into it), also seems the most logical for him to choose. But, people don't always do the most logical thing (and JtR's decision to murder and mutilate in public does not rank high on the logical scale after all), so perhaps that's the wrong way to evaluate this. And, the other exits offer their own benefits, which JtR may have weighed differently than I am. So, who's to know?

Based upon the simulations, though, Mitre Street (heading north), St. James Passage, and a delayed exit via Church Passage, all could work, so all need to be considered as viable. The last, as I say, is a bit Hollywood, but sometimes reality is stranger than fiction, so ...

- Jeff

An excellent and fair assessment as ever Jeff. I’d just throw in another possibility (and it’s one that’s been mentioned before of course). What if Harvey wasn’t as diligent as he might have been and only stood at the top of Church Passage without down going to the entry to Mitre Square? There’s no evidence to back this possibility up of course but we do know that Harvey dismissed from the force for reasons unknown just 10 months or so later.

[harry]

No matter which way out of the square JTR took,whoever he met on leaving would not have knowledge a crime had been committed,so there was little chance of being stopped.

[GBinOz]

Based upon the simulations, though, Mitre Street (heading north), St. James Passage, and a delayed exit via Church Passage, all could work, so all need to be considered as viable. The last, as I say, is a bit Hollywood, but sometimes reality is stranger than fiction, so ...

- Jeff

Hi Jeff,

Another fine simulation, well done. My thinking is that if JtR had knowledge of the beat timings his best choice was to follow Harvey, who was departing, rather than to risk bumping into the approaching Watkins. If Watkins was a minute or so early on his beat he could have been very close to the Mitre St entrance when Jack peeked out to see if the coast was clear. He knew exactly where Harvey was, but Watkin's exact location was an unknown. Probably irrelevant, but the latter escape route via Mitre St puts me in mind of the Stephen White account.

It seems that if Jack left just as Harvey started down the passage, or froze and left just after Harvey's departure, he had a little less than five minutes to perpetrate the actual murder and mutilations. Would that be your assessment?

Best regards, George

[Enigma]

Well, put Jeff. I fully agree with your assessment. There is also the consideration that if JtR did flee via Mitre Street, he may have been aware that he could walk past anyone entering from that direction and they could not see Eddowes' body until they actually set foot in the square, thus giving him a few seconds head start before the body was discovered.

[JeffHamm]

Your video was wonderful!
Before I viewed it, my gut had been that Jack took that St. James Passage and with your simulator thats the fastest way out AND the least risk bumping into a Bobby. Taking Mitre Street seemed too risky, too wide open.
I can totally see the scenario now, thanks to you.
I wonder if Jack had followed the Bobbys' beats throughout his killing zone over days, weeks, months prior to the stary of his spree?

Hi BooksbyBJTompson,

Assessing the risk, or more critically, Jack's sense of risk at the time, is difficult due to the subjective nature of risk. It will depend upon what prompted JtR to leave the scene.

There are two events that happen very close in time, according to statements, that could have interrupted JtR and caused him to flee. Those events are PC Harvey's patrol of Church Passage, which appears to occur very close in time to when Morris opens the door of the warehouse during his cleaning up. As such, we don't know which of those events actually happens first. Either, however, could very well have alerted JtR and caused him to depart. Given the location of Church Passage, if PC Harvey arrives first, heading out through Mitre Street would get him away from PC Harvey's sight fastest and head him in a direction away from PC Harvey. Similarly, given the location of the warehouse, which is next to Church Passage, Mitre Street is the exit that maximizes his distance from a potential witness. Heading towards St. James Passage requires him to get closer to the potential witness, and so to me that seems less likely. Also, Blenkinsop, who was on standing duty in St. James as a security guard, didn't notice anyone exiting at that end (and while that's not definitive, it does make that route less likely to some extent - we have weak evidence against it).

Of course, if he leaves before either of those events, then St. James Passage could be viewed as more probable for the reasons you give but if he's chosen to leave (rather than the above "forced to flee"), Mitre Street is the closest exit and getting onto a main street might be desirable as it provides some cover due to being on a main street isn't going to make one suspicious looking (until, of course, the body is discovered and a search begins; so again, it now comes down to how JtR evaluated all of those things).

The most "Hollywood" suited route, of course, is for JtR to "wait out" the two interruptions (the argument being that he decides it is better to freeze in place than risk his movement being spotted), and then to exit via Church Passage behind PC Havey (knowing that route will be clear now, and having seen PC Harvey turn right upon his exiting, he knows he can turn left and avoid the PC who has that beat). My personal view is that is just a bit too dramatic for real life and even if he did "wait it out", I think he would still be prone to exit into Mitre Street due to its proximity. He could peer around the corner to see if there's a PC visible, and if not, off he goes, and if there is, he has the option of two other possible routes. And since PC Watkins isn't in view, Mitre Street becomes viable.

So, and this is only my opinion, I tend to think the most probable exit was via Mitre Street. It seems to me to be the least risky, particularly if he was prompted to flee by either Morris's door opening or PC Harvey's patrol. Even if he leaves on his own accord, Mitre Street, being the closest (and empty, which he could have verified before stepping out into it), also seems the most logical for him to choose. But, people don't always do the most logical thing (and JtR's decision to murder and mutilate in public does not rank high on the logical scale after all), so perhaps that's the wrong way to evaluate this. And, the other exits offer their own benefits, which JtR may have weighed differently than I am. So, who's to know?

Based upon the simulations, though, Mitre Street (heading north), St. James Passage, and a delayed exit via Church Passage, all could work, so all need to be considered as viable. The last, as I say, is a bit Hollywood, but sometimes reality is stranger than fiction, so ...

- Jeff

[BooksbyBJThompson]

You can find a link to some animations I put together here if you think that might help?

- Jeff

Your video was wonderful!
Before I viewed it, my gut had been that Jack took that St. James Passage and with your simulator thats the fastest way out AND the least risk bumping into a Bobby. Taking Mitre Street seemed too risky, too wide open.
I can totally see the scenario now, thanks to you.
I wonder if Jack had followed the Bobbys' beats throughout his killing zone over days, weeks, months prior to the stary of his spree?

[spyglass]

Via Mitre Street. This is the closest exit to the crime scene meaning he did not have to cross the square to depart. It is also the widest of the 3 exits giving more room to avoid being trapped in a narrow passage.

I am not going to conjecture on how much time he had to avoid detection. That will open a can worms. Clearly, the timing was tight.

Exiting via Mitre street seems likely, however all though in the dark shadow, the square in front of him had adequate light to see down church passage ahead of him, if quite a no one insight, he could have gone quickly straight ahead. And out.

[Aethelwulf]

Now,if JtR had a bolt hole at 6 Mitre Street .......

[DJA]

Exiting via Mitre Street could have seen Edward Watkin confronting him.

Now,if JtR had a bolt hole at 6 Mitre Street .......

[JeffHamm]

You can find a link to some animations I put together here if you think that might help?

- Jeff

[Enigma]

Via Mitre Street. This is the closest exit to the crime scene meaning he did not have to cross the square to depart. It is also the widest of the 3 exits giving more room to avoid being trapped in a narrow passage.

I am not going to conjecture on how much time he had to avoid detection. That will open a can worms. Clearly, the timing was tight.