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Hi rj,
Oh, thanks for bringing that to my attention as I seem to have missed that thread.
What I sort of glossed over, but did mention, is that I've got PC Neil's patrol speed at 2.6 mph, that's because when I measured the distance of the route I showed, 2.6mph would require the 30 minutes he testifies as how long his last patrol took him. Given we don't know where he might have stopped, or how many times, or for how long at each one, all we can do is use his complete cycle time, and set him in constant motion at that speed (which, if you note, is not using what I thought was the regulation speed of 2.5, but a tad faster; and perhaps what you mention is attributes to why that might be the case).
Again, in this sort of analysis the locations are estimations, not exact "definitely must have been right here". As such, it wouldn't change the overall result. However, with respect to the entirely speculative "dramatic" escape route, when things are that close like when JtR emerges he's just behind PC Neil, I would suggest given the fact we're dealing with estimations that option, while technically plausible, is to be far less preferred than the other, which is well removed from such concerns. But, if he is supposed to be patrolling at 3.0 mph, then given he's likely to make fewer stops/delays the shorter the distance, if we work back from his time of finding Nichols at 3:45, he would still be in that northern section of his beat, just further back from the carmen and so in a position even less likely to see the carmen (missing each other is even easier to understand, as at the moment it's fairly close).
Generally, when I have specific statements by the person concerned, "I was here at X, and there at Y", I'll use that to estimate their individual movement speed, rather than go with an average. I'll use the average if I have nothing specific to work with though. So, if the nighttime patrol speed is faster, then that would be important. Fortunately, though, in the Nichols, Eddowes, and Stride cases, where beats are concerned, there are some specific statements that allow me to estimate their apparent patrol speed. These have so far tended to be pretty close to the 2.5 mph, and so appears to reflect the combination of a quicker speed plus delays due to various checks and duties along the way.
Anyway, I'll have some reading to do. Thanks again.
- Jeff
Originally posted by rjpalmer
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What I sort of glossed over, but did mention, is that I've got PC Neil's patrol speed at 2.6 mph, that's because when I measured the distance of the route I showed, 2.6mph would require the 30 minutes he testifies as how long his last patrol took him. Given we don't know where he might have stopped, or how many times, or for how long at each one, all we can do is use his complete cycle time, and set him in constant motion at that speed (which, if you note, is not using what I thought was the regulation speed of 2.5, but a tad faster; and perhaps what you mention is attributes to why that might be the case).
Again, in this sort of analysis the locations are estimations, not exact "definitely must have been right here". As such, it wouldn't change the overall result. However, with respect to the entirely speculative "dramatic" escape route, when things are that close like when JtR emerges he's just behind PC Neil, I would suggest given the fact we're dealing with estimations that option, while technically plausible, is to be far less preferred than the other, which is well removed from such concerns. But, if he is supposed to be patrolling at 3.0 mph, then given he's likely to make fewer stops/delays the shorter the distance, if we work back from his time of finding Nichols at 3:45, he would still be in that northern section of his beat, just further back from the carmen and so in a position even less likely to see the carmen (missing each other is even easier to understand, as at the moment it's fairly close).
Generally, when I have specific statements by the person concerned, "I was here at X, and there at Y", I'll use that to estimate their individual movement speed, rather than go with an average. I'll use the average if I have nothing specific to work with though. So, if the nighttime patrol speed is faster, then that would be important. Fortunately, though, in the Nichols, Eddowes, and Stride cases, where beats are concerned, there are some specific statements that allow me to estimate their apparent patrol speed. These have so far tended to be pretty close to the 2.5 mph, and so appears to reflect the combination of a quicker speed plus delays due to various checks and duties along the way.
Anyway, I'll have some reading to do. Thanks again.
- Jeff
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