Who has the goods?

[JeffHamm]

Hi Fiver,

I believe the gates opened inwards, so the killer could have hidden behind the the gate, then left when Diemshutz went into the club.

Alternatively, the killer could have hidden in one of the waterclosets on the other side of the yard.

It's possible, of course. My disbelief in it is just that, a personal disbelief. I think the gates probably would open inwards, but then, it seems most probable to me that the gates would be open fully, leaving very little room for someone to get in the space behind. Obviously I don't know the actual position of the gate, so it's entirely possible there was room, but that seems to me to have a much lower probability. Others may have a different impression on how likely that is, which would lead to a different option. But none of us know the details, so we're left comparing opinions. And I suppose he could sneak to the waterclosets, but that's a long way to travel. At what point does hearing a pony and cart coming down the street signal "flee"? JtR is not to know that Deimshutz was going to enter the yard. As far as JtR knew, the pony was just going to continue down the street. He doesn't appear to have fled when someone was next door in the Chapman case, so would he really flee all the way across the yard at the sound of traffic in the street? I don't know, it doesn't quite fit together well for me. Leaving the scene well before Deimshutz's arrival, though, perhaps when Goldstein walked by, and Fanny Mortimer closed her door, that was just too much activity in the area, and he left at that point (that's only a few minutes, 4 by one of FM's newspaper accounts as I recall, before Deimshutz turns up on the scene).

Anyway, I can't say he definitely wasn't hiding in the yard as there is no proof one way or the other, but my own sense of the probability of him hiding in the yard is sufficiently low that I don't believe he was. That's not worth much, though, and if something were to be uncovered to provide new information, then my sense of the probabilities would change, either strengthening my disbelief, or weakening it, maybe even to the point of believing it.

It's probably just my idiosyncratic way of phrasing things, but I tend to refer to belief or disbelief in something when I think it is probable or improbable, rather than when it is proven or disproven. For the latter, I omit reference to my belief, and just state "It's like this ...." or "It wasn't that ...". I don't have the opportunity to do those very often in JtR related discussions though.

- Jeff

[Fiver]

At what point does hearing a pony and cart coming down the street signal "flee"? JtR is not to know that Deimshutz was going to enter the yard. As far as JtR knew, the pony was just going to continue down the street.

That is an excellent point. We know that Diemscutz would drive his cart into the yard, but the killer had no way of knowing that. Which could mean that the killer was spooked by one of the club members who went through the yard between 12:45am and 1am and was long gone by the time Diemschutz arrived.

[jmenges]

Hi all…happy Friday-eve.

Michael W Richards had to suddenly take a two week vacation from the boards. Maybe while he’s out he can find some soap for that dirty mouth of his.

Let’s take this opportunity to remind ourselves of our Major Rules, shall we?

https://forum.casebook.org/forum/read-this-first/casebook-rules/2787-major-rules

Thanks

JM

[JeffHamm]

Hi Fiver,

That is an excellent point. We know that Diemscutz would drive his cart into the yard, but the killer had no way of knowing that. Which could mean that the killer was spooked by one of the club members who went through the yard between 12:45am and 1am and was long gone by the time Diemschutz arrived.

Exactly, JtR doesn't know the "ponyman" is going to come into the yard. Your latter suggestions seem more likely to me to trigger fleeing, but again, I can't prove that, it's just my impression. The area seems to have been quiet enough that JtR may have decided it was suitable for his purposes, but also just busy enough that any number of events may have caused him to change his mind (this, of course, is thinking along the lines that Stride actually was killed by JtR, which itself is not guaranteed). Deimshutz's arrival is only one of many possible things that may have prompted his leaving the area. Given the number of other things, and how leaving before Diemshutz's arrival seems far easier to explain because we then don't need to explain why Deimshutz didn't spot him, or report any impression that someone was moving around in the shadows, etc, I tend to believe those indicate it very probably Stride's killer was already gone when Deimshutz arrived.

Like I say, that's only my interpretation, and what we know is not sufficient to make that a verified conclusion.

For example, perhaps hearing the pony induced JtR to move down the ally, more to avoid being spotted by the passing pony and cart than because he knew they were going to enter the yard. If so, he may have just ducked around the corner, and fled when Deimshutz went inside. I suppose that would work as JtR's movements are all before Deimshutz would have a chance to see him, etc. (so maybe my disbelief is wavering a bit?)

- Jeff

[MrBarnett]

Hi Fiver,



Exactly, JtR doesn't know the "ponyman" is going to come into the yard. Your latter suggestions seem more likely to me to trigger fleeing, but again, I can't prove that, it's just my impression. The area seems to have been quiet enough that JtR may have decided it was suitable for his purposes, but also just busy enough that any number of events may have caused him to change his mind (this, of course, is thinking along the lines that Stride actually was killed by JtR, which itself is not guaranteed). Deimshutz's arrival is only one of many possible things that may have prompted his leaving the area. Given the number of other things, and how leaving before Diemshutz's arrival seems far easier to explain because we then don't need to explain why Deimshutz didn't spot him, or report any impression that someone was moving around in the shadows, etc, I tend to believe those indicate it very probably Stride's killer was already gone when Deimshutz arrived.

Like I say, that's only my interpretation, and what we know is not sufficient to make that a verified conclusion.

For example, perhaps hearing the pony induced JtR to move down the ally, more to avoid being spotted by the passing pony and cart than because he knew they were going to enter the yard. If so, he may have just ducked around the corner, and fled when Deimshutz went inside. I suppose that would work as JtR's movements are all before Deimshutz would have a chance to see him, etc. (so maybe my disbelief is wavering a bit?)

- Jeff

I think there would be a distinct difference in sound between a pony and cart trotting down the middle of Berner Street and one slowing down and manoeuvring into the yard.

[JeffHamm]

Hi MrBarnett,

I think there would be a distinct difference in sound between a pony and cart trotting down the middle of Berner Street and one slowing down and manoeuvring into the yard.

Sure, there is that possibility. But the slowing down would be very close to the point when the pony then turns into the alley, probably around the point the pony's head comes level with the entrance. It's not like he would have to slow down 20 yards from the entrance or anything like that. In the end, I'm not sure how much time that would give for JtR to then move to a location to avoid being spotted, or otherwise detected. Maybe he has to slow down sufficiently in advance that it is enough? I don't know, I'm not exactly familiar with the maneuvering times of pony and carts, so either it is or it isn't enough time. If I guess it is not enough, it doesn't work, and if I guess it is enough time, then sure. But it still leaves me having to guess, and every guess introduces another point where I may guess wrong, making the conclusion less and less solid. We know there was activity in the club, and we know other people did pass by (i.e. Goldstein), so there are a number of other possible things that would do the same, and seem to me to be easier for her killer to avoid detection and leave. Like I say, that's just how it seems to me, so it's just an opinion, not a fact. The same facts may create very different impressions for you, or others, and so you will be of a different opinion.

- Jeff

[MrBarnett]

Diemschutz wasn’t driving a car, Jeff. He was controlling a pony, probably with verbal instructions such as ‘whoa’ or the Yiddish equivalent.

[JeffHamm]

Hi MrBarnett,

Diemschutz wasn’t driving a car, Jeff. He was controlling a pony, probably with verbal instructions such as ‘whoa’ or the Yiddish equivalent.

I think it's very clear in my post I'm talking about a pony and cart. Not sure how you got car from that, but since cars were not available in 1888, I certainly agree with you.

I rather suspect his control of the pony was more connected to his use of the reigns and there would be relatively little reliance on the hollywood "whoa's". While I've only ridden horses a few times, the control was always physical, through the reigns and pressure from the knees on the horse's sides and so forth, and didn't involve voice commands. But, even if Deimshutz did use voice commands, it doesn't change the fact that he's not going to slow down until almost on top of the entrance, which doesn't leave a lot of time to flee.

As I say, we're guessing here, so feel free to guess differently than I do. I'm not presenting any of this as if it's fact, only describing the ideas and assumptions that lead me to believe it's unlikely Stride's killer was still there when Deimshutz arrived. If you've made different assumptions it would be entirely plausible for you to believe the opposite. That's because, in the end, we do not have the necessary facts to work with, and so rather than be able to present facts and draw conclusions, we can only state our assumptions and beliefs.

- Jeff

[GBinOz]

"Shortly before one o'clock" is the time PC Lamb gave for when he was contacted. It is not the time he reached Dutfield's Yard and it is an estimate.

"Dr. Blackwell was the first doctor to arrive; he came ten or twelve minutes after myself, but I had no watch with me." - Constable Harry Lamb

"I consulted my watch on my arrival, and it was 1.16 a.m." - Dr Frederick Blackwell

That puts PC Lambs' estimated arrival at about 1:04 to 1:06am.

The accuracy of an estimate of time elapsed is inversly proportional to the length of time elapsed from the starting point.

Lamb's testimony at the inquest:
[Coroner] Do you think that a person might have got away before you arrived? - I think he is more likely to have escaped before than after.
Detective-Inspector Reid: How long before had you passed this place?
Witness: I am not on the Berner-street beat, but I passed the end of the street in Commercial-road six or seven minutes before.

Lamb had passed the tobacconist's clock only six to seven minutes before arriving at the yard, but he is already acknowledging that he didn't have a watch so was estimating. "Shortly before one o'clock" is the time PC Lamb gave for when he was contacted. This is an even shorter time from when he passed the tobacconist clock. I remain unconvinced that Lamb's estimate could be around five minutes out on a time of six to seven minutes or less. The standard rebuttal for this is that as a police officer, who Monty says were very concerned with time, he would have averted his eyes as he passed the tobacconist's clock.

Mr. Edward Johnson: I live at 100, Commercial-road, and am assistant to Drs. Kaye and Blackwell. On Sunday morning last, at a few minutes past one o'clock, I received a call from Constable 436 H. After informing Dr. Blackwell, who was in bed, of the case, I accompanied the officer to Berner-street
I had no watch with me, but Dr. Blackwell looked at his when he arrived, and the time was 1.16 a.m. I preceded him by three or four minutes.

The "few minutes past one o'clock" fits with Lamb's time. Johnson was up at the time. Why did it, according to Blackwell's pocket watch, take Johnson about ten minutes to get to the yard when Blackwell arose, dressed and got to the yard in three or four minutes. Answer is that Blackwell's pocket watch was more than five minutes out of sync with his house clock, which appears to have been more closely in sync with the tobacconist clock, and the tobacconist clock itself.

Members can choose which of the estimated and compiled or unsynchronised pocket watch times they adopt because they most suit their case, and which of said times can be dismissed because they don't suit their argument, but for my part I an happy to accept the times provided by Lamb and Smith.

Cheers, George

[GBinOz]

Hi Fiver,

And I suppose he could sneak to the waterclosets, but that's a long way to travel. At what point does hearing a pony and cart coming down the street signal "flee"? JtR is not to know that Deimshutz was going to enter the yard. As far as JtR knew, the pony was just going to continue down the street. He doesn't appear to have fled when someone was next door in the Chapman case, so would he really flee all the way across the yard at the sound of traffic in the street?

- Jeff

Hi Jeff,

As I understand it the water closets were in the little alcove directly opposite the side door of the club. In my previous post I was thinking that it would would difficult for the culprit to attain access to that alcove after the horse had detected him, but I accept your suggestion that the horse may have shied at the smell of blood. But it is a viable suggestion that he may have taken refuge there in case the cart turned into the yard, and to return if it didn't. It is thought that JtR may have done that with PC Harvey at Mitre Square.

Cheers, George

[GBinOz]

Another comment on time from a different angle.

Detective-Inspector Reid said: I received a telegram at 1.25 on Sunday morning last at Commercial- street Police-office. I at once proceeded to No. 40, Berner-street, where I saw several police officers, Drs. Phillips and Blackwell

Commercial St PS is a 19 minute walk from Dutfields, so the earliest Reid could have arrived is 1:44, and Phillips was already there.

Constable Henry Lamb I turned my light on, when I found that the object was a woman, with her throat cut and apparently dead. I sent the other constable for the nearest doctor, and a young man who was standing by I despatched to the police station to inform the inspector what had occurred.

Lehman St PS is 6 minutes walk from Dutfields.

Mr. George Baxter Phillips: I live at No. 2, Spital-square, and am surgeon of the H Division of police. I was called on Sunday morning last at twenty past one to Leman-street Police-station, and was sent on to Berner-street, to a yard at the side of what proved to be a club-house.

No. 2 Spital-square is 15 minutes walk to Lehman St PS. So from the time Lamb is first standing over the body add 6 minutes for the "young man" to reach Lehman St PS, add 30 minutes for someone to walk to Phillip's house and for Phillips to proceed to Lehman St PS, add another 6 minutes to Dutfields. This has Phillips arriving at Dutfields at about 1:41, which agrees with Reid seeing him there at 1:44, and has Lamb standing over the body at about 1AM, which fits his times. It also fits Smith's time of 1AM at the corner of Commercial and Berner. Blackwell's pocket watch was out of sync and Diemshitz was either mistaken or lying, I don't know which.

Cheers, George

[JeffHamm]

Hi Jeff,

As I understand it the water closets were in the little alcove directly opposite the side door of the club. In my previous post I was thinking that it would would difficult for the culprit to attain access to that alcove after the horse had detected him, but I accept your suggestion that the horse may have shied at the smell of blood. But it is a viable suggestion that he may have taken refuge there in case the cart turned into the yard, and to return if it didn't. It is thought that JtR may have done that with PC Harvey at Mitre Square.

Cheers, George

Oh, ok. They were described as on the "other side of the yard", and I thought that meant at the opposite end to where the gate is (so the long way away). I suppose if they're close enough he could hide in one. Again, I'm not saying it's impossible, rather, that given there are so many other things that could have caused Stride's killer to leave the scene prior to Deimshutz's arrival, which don't require us to guess at pretty specific details, I find it hard to believe he was still there. Sure, I could be wrong in my belief, but I guess it boils down to the fact that although I think it's possible he was there, I don't think it at all probable. And, in my opinion, it's improbable enough that without something tangible to suggest otherwise, I don't believe he was. That being said, I'm still more than happy to discuss ideas that take as a starting point her killer was hiding when Deimshutz arrived. Working through the flow on consequences of that starting point may end up resulting in fitting other aspects of the case better than the he leaves earlier, and that might change my view because, sometimes the improbable does happen.

- Jeff

[Scott Nelson]

But it is a viable suggestion that he may have taken refuge there in case the cart turned into the yard, and to return if it didn't. It is thought that JtR may have done that with PC Harvey at Mitre Square.

Where at Mitre Square?

[GBinOz]

Where at Mitre Square?

Hi Scott,

From memory I think the suggestion was that he could have ducked around the corner of the Mitre Square entrance to enable a quick escape if Harvey noticed the body. When Harvey left he resumed his carving.

Cheers, George

[Herlock Sholmes]

At what point does hearing a pony and cart coming down the street signal "flee"? JtR is not to know that Deimshutz was going to enter the yard. As far as JtR knew, the pony was just going to continue down the street.

- Jeff

Hi Jeff,

Its a fair point, as Fiver said, but couldn’t it have been the case that it might not just have been the sound of a horse and cart but a horse and cart slowing down? As it was the early hours of the morning I’m assuming that traffic would have been light to almost non-existent so a horse and cart might have gotten his attention rather more than it would have done during the day? He knew that he was standing near wide open double gates and he might even have been aware that there were stables in that yard. So might he not have just ‘pricked up his ears’ when he heard the cart approaching and paused until he could have been sure that it passed by. At some point though he realised that it was slowing down and so he had to hide. I’ve always thought that behind the gates would have been the likeliest.

But because of the mention of the side door being open I think that it’s also worth considering that this might have ‘interrupted’ the killer. Whether it was someone crossing the yard to the loo or someone opening the door to let in a bit of air?

It also might have been the case that the killer wasn’t the ripper of course.