Patterns and Co-incidences

[etenguy]

There are many patterns and coincidences with the Whitechapel murders. The article below caught my eye - a couple of weeks later Catherine Eddowes had the tip of her nose cut off and then in November MJK's heart was taken (was it burned in the fire?). Not suggesting this guy was the ripper, but wonder if the murderer was inspired by such reports.

Daily Telegraph 13 September 1888

POLICE INTELLIGENCE
WORSHIP-STREET


- William Bailey, 46, a French polisher, of Fashion-street, Spitalfields, was charged with maliciously wounding a woman named Elizabeth Tidmarsh. - It was stated that the woman's nose had been fearfully mutilated. She had lived, she said, with the prisoner for 16 years, and had had six children by him. The prisoner had frequently assaulted her, but she had never charged him before. On the previous evening there was a quarrel, and at half-past one, when she was about to go to bed, the prisoner struck her. She then made the remark to him that he was "like Leather Apron," on which the prisoner knocked her down. She fell against the bedstead, and the next she remembered was the policeman finding her in a pool of blood. Her nose was fearfully cut. She could not say whether the prisoner had anything in his hand or not, but she did not wish him punished, and only wanted him to keep the children. - Without hearing the medical evidence, Mr. Saunders ordered the prisoner to enter into his own bail to keep the peace for six months. - As he left the dock the prisoner said the woman was a dissipated drunkard, and she retorted by saying that she would not be "seen looking at such a wretch again." - A women living in Whitechapel asked the magistrate for protection against her husband, who had threatened to cut her heart out and burn it. - Mr. Saunders: But he would not do that. It would be no use to him if he did. - Applicant: But he says he will. - Mr. Saunders: Well, I will send an officer to caution him.

[etenguy]

As well as the coincidence above, there are patterns too. For example, a pattern I've mentioned in an earlier thread, we all know the murders were committed at weekends, but it is not usually mentioned that the murders were carried out on consecutive days, ie:
1st murder was a Friday
2nd murder was a Saturday
Double event was a Sunday
5th murder was a Friday (starting the sequence again)

In addition, the number of whole weeks between the murders increased in a sequence of odd numbers:

Between 1st an 2nd murder - 1 week
Between 2nd and double event - 3 weeks
Between double event and 5th murder - 5 weeks

These are probably just coincidence but if the patterns hold we might expect the next victim to be on a Saturday, 7 weeks after MJK's murder. I had to look for one, and there was a ripper like murder seven weeks later on a Saturday - but it wasn't in Whitechapel, it wasn't a prostitute, and it wasn't a woman - though there were sufficient similarities that the police sent one of the doctors involved in the Whitechapel murders to check it out (It was Jon Gill's murder and the doctor said it wasn't a ripper murder - had this out in another thread so not going there again - but it is a big coincidence).

[MrBarnett]

Ripperology at its finest!

[etenguy]

Ripperology at its finest!

MrBarnett

Don't think too harshly of me - the original reason for looking at the murder dates was to see if they fit in with a particular working pattern or something similar. I just noticed the pattern that emerged and had a go at extrapolating. But you never know, someone might find a pattern or coincidence in the future which has some significance.

[Astatine211]

https://www.oldbaileyonline.org/brow...=t18930206-244 I think this could be the same William Bailey as the article.

[MrBarnett]

MrBarnett

Don't think too harshly of me - the original reason for looking at the murder dates was to see if they fit in with a particular working pattern or something similar. I just noticed the pattern that emerged and had a go at extrapolating. But you never know, someone might find a pattern or coincidence in the future which has some significance.

Of course I don’t think harshly of you.

The plethora of coincidences in the case is what keeps things rolling.

[Wickerman]

As well as the coincidence above, there are patterns too. For example, a pattern I've mentioned in an earlier thread, we all know the murders were committed at weekends, but it is not usually mentioned that the murders were carried out on consecutive days, ie:
1st murder was a Friday
2nd murder was a Saturday
Double event was a Sunday
5th murder was a Friday (starting the sequence again)

In addition, the number of whole weeks between the murders increased in a sequence of odd numbers:

Between 1st an 2nd murder - 1 week
Between 2nd and double event - 3 weeks
Between double event and 5th murder - 5 weeks

These are probably just coincidence but if the patterns hold we might expect the next victim to be on a Saturday, 7 weeks after MJK's murder. I had to look for one, and there was a ripper like murder seven weeks later on a Saturday - but it wasn't in Whitechapel, it wasn't a prostitute, and it wasn't a woman - though there were sufficient similarities that the police sent one of the doctors involved in the Whitechapel murders to check it out (It was Jon Gill's murder and the doctor said it wasn't a ripper murder - had this out in another thread so not going there again - but it is a big coincidence).

It's just that any hypothetical pattern of coincidences relies on every murder being the only attempt, it doesn't allow for failure's, like the time or place not being right, too many interruptions, any number of obstacles may have prevented one of his nightly jaunts from being successful.
I'm not so sure that it doesn't expect too much.
In fact, that is the same flaw in any theory based on numbers, whether it be calendar dates, time of day or geographical location.

[Darryl Kenyon]

Between 1st an 2nd murder - 1 week
Between 2nd and double event - 3 weeks
Between double event and 5th murder - 5 weeks

This is probably down to the murders getting more difficult to achieve. More vigilance etc
Regards Darryl

[etenguy]

It's just that any hypothetical pattern of coincidences relies on every murder being the only attempt, it doesn't allow for failure's, like the time or place not being right, too many interruptions, any number of obstacles may have prevented one of his nightly jaunts from being successful.
I'm not so sure that it doesn't expect too much.
In fact, that is the same flaw in any theory based on numbers, whether it be calendar dates, time of day or geographical location.

Hi Wickerman

You're quite right - it was just the coincidence of the actual murder dates that I thought was striking - that quite by chance they should fall into such a pattern.

[etenguy]

Between 1st an 2nd murder - 1 week
Between 2nd and double event - 3 weeks
Between double event and 5th murder - 5 weeks

This is probably down to the murders getting more difficult to achieve. More vigilance etc
Regards Darryl

Hi Darryl

Quite possibly - though when we look at the double event, he seems quite determined and if we believe the interruption theory, he finds a second victim within the hour. But that may have been sheer chance on that particular day.

[etenguy]

https://www.oldbaileyonline.org/brow...=t18930206-244 I think this could be the same William Bailey as the article.

Hi Astatine

The age is about right, though he has changed occupation from a French polisher to a fishmonger. Could well be the same guy. I think it is the same detective too (Mr Saunders).

[etenguy]

Of course I don’t think harshly of you.

The plethora of coincidences in the case is what keeps things rolling.

MrBarnett

You are quite right. The problem with some coincidences is that they can seem significant when they are not, because of the unlikeness of the coincidence happening. In a world of chaos, it seems too strange that some kind of order should emerge from sheer chance and a causal explanation is sought - if only to dismiss a causal relationship. Of course, if the dates had been different, we could probably still find a different pattern.

I have to tell you, though, when I first extrapolated from the date coincidence and found the unsolved murder of a young child in a very ripper like manner occurring exactly when it would be expected to maintain the sequence, I was taken aback. I could find none within a month or so either side of the date. But that's how coincidences grab your attention I guess.

Another coincidence, nothing to do with the murders, happened where I work. I work in a team of four. Three of us have our birthdays in December. Two of us have our birthdays on the same day and we were born in the same year. Clearly this is sheer chance, but I still find it surprising.

[Trevor Marriott]

Between 1st an 2nd murder - 1 week
Between 2nd and double event - 3 weeks
Between double event and 5th murder - 5 weeks

This is probably down to the murders getting more difficult to achieve. More vigilance etc
Regards Darryl

Or because the killer was a merchant seaman whose travels brought him back to London at differnet times !

www.trevormarriott.co.uk

[Wickerman]

Or because the killer was a merchant seaman whose travels brought him back to London at differnet times !

www.trevormarriott.co.uk

If he was a merchant seaman, he visited other ports - so where are the similar murders in those ports?

[caz]

Hi Darryl

Quite possibly - though when we look at the double event, he seems quite determined and if we believe the interruption theory, he finds a second victim within the hour. But that may have been sheer chance on that particular day.

More of a remarkable coincidence for me is that the killer struck again within a few days of the Dear Boss letter being written and sent, threatening to get to work again right away, but before it was made public. If there had been no more murders after Hanbury Street, that letter would have been the dampest of damp squibs. But the murders didn't stop, and the timing was perfect. The author was even rewarded with an explosive double event on the very next occasion, resulting in the letter and the Saucy Jacky postcard spawning hundreds of mostly pale imitations and the 'trade name' taking on a life of its own.

It's almost as if the killer knew about the promise made on his behalf, and the author knew the killer would not let him down.

Love,

Caz
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