Nicola Bulley, what does everybody think?

[erobitha]

I take no pleasure in being right about her being in the river. It’s a sad end to a young mother’s life whichever way she ended up in the water.

[Herlock Sholmes]

Sad news. I definitely leaned toward a non river related outcome.

[Wickerman]

It was to be expected that a body would turn up somewhere, assuming this is Nicola Bulley.
How thorough was this 'thorough' police river search after all, that it was two walkers who actually came across the body?

[Abby Normal]

ugg.so sad. although it looks like suicide after all, hopefully there will be closure in terms of suicide or accident. but i guess foul play cant be ruled out either at this point.

[Abby Normal]

It was to be expected that a body would turn up somewhere, assuming this is Nicola Bulley.
How thorough was this 'thorough' police river search after all, that it was two walkers who actually came across the body?

hi wick
well i think drowned bodies can sink and then resurface later, and a mile away isnt in tje immediate area either.

[spyglass]

Sadly drowning in the river was the only plausible conclusion as far as I was concerned.
The Police have been given alot unnecessary criticism these last fee weeks as far as I'm concerned.

[Dickere]

Didn't the river search expert say she's not there or else we'd have found her, I'll stake my reputation on it.

[Aethelwulf]

It was to be expected that a body would turn up somewhere, assuming this is Nicola Bulley.
How thorough was this 'thorough' police river search after all, that it was two walkers who actually came across the body?

There is a water level gauge on the weir. There was a small peak yesterday (rise and fall of 80 cm) in response to a bit of rain. Might explain why she was found today.

[JeffHamm]

Very sad. Earlier I was leaning more towards an abduction, although given the "clutter" I wasn't convinced it was. At the time, though, that seemed the most plausible based upon what we know. I had wondered if she might have been battling some private daemons (in which case my weightings of plausibility changed because I waffle a lot), and since then it was released that she was (though it was not necessary for the police to reveal what those daemons were, as they had already indicated she was considered "high risk" and could have just restated that).

The failure to find her in the river sooner is unfortunate, and at face value seems strange. But, she was a mile away from the bench and I'm not sure how far down stream they had searched? There appears to be quite a few bends in the river, and I would have expected a body to get caught at one of them closer to the bench (much depends upon the underlying topography of the river itself, of course, but there's about 7 or 8 "bends" in the river between where she was found and the bench's location; map in the Guardian here), and some of them quite sharp. Again, it is underwater details that are really what's important though, and only so much can be inferred from looking at the path of the river, but ignoring my own point, perhaps she left her phone on the bench, with the dog tied to it, and then walked down stream closer to where she was found and ended up entering the river much further downstream than it appeared? If they only searched along a mile stretch, and she was just a bit further down, then that would explain why she was not found. In any underwater search, a lot depends upon the visibility (water clarity) and in poor visibility it can be more of a search by feel than sight; if she was deep in scrub, and water clarity is poor, then she might not have been visible and out of reach.

Finding her now (spotted from the bank by people walking along the river) likely reflects the body surfacing after time, which would explain why the police searching the river from the bank could have missed her earlier.

- Jeff

[Wickerman]

Very sad. Earlier I was leaning more towards an abduction, although given the "clutter" I wasn't convinced it was. At the time, though, that seemed the most plausible based upon what we know. I had wondered if she might have been battling some private daemons (in which case my weightings of plausibility changed because I waffle a lot), and since then it was released that she was (though it was not necessary for the police to reveal what those daemons were, as they had already indicated she was considered "high risk" and could have just restated that).

Hmm, but so many circumstances appeared to speak against suicide, especially a planned suicide. An autopsy might clarify things, or even add to the mystery?

The failure to find her in the river sooner is unfortunate, and at face value seems strange. But, she was a mile away from the bench....

Yes, and I'm surprised how many media outlets refer to that bench as "her last known location", or "the last place she was seen", yet she was never seen by that bench by anyone, at anytime.

...and I'm not sure how far down stream they had searched?

That's another point the police are going to be crucified for.
Unless it's eventual putrefaction has caused it to surface?

There appears to be quite a few bends in the river, and I would have expected a body to get caught at one of them closer to the bench (much depends upon the underlying topography of the river itself, of course, but there's about 7 or 8 "bends" in the river between where she was found and the bench's location; map in the Guardian here), and some of them quite sharp. Again, it is underwater details that are really what's important though, and only so much can be inferred from looking at the path of the river, but ignoring my own point, perhaps she left her phone on the bench, with the dog tied to it, and then walked down stream closer to where she was found and ended up entering the river much further downstream than it appeared?

Ok, so if she did commit suicide, why leave the phone on the bench?
If she was the type of person to be overly concerned about trivia, I might expect her to tie the dog up to prevent it following her, but it was loose.
This case still has questions to resolve, maybe the autopsy will provide some answers.

If they only searched along a mile stretch, and she was just a bit further down, then that would explain why she was not found. In any underwater search, a lot depends upon the visibility (water clarity) and in poor visibility it can be more of a search by feel than sight; if she was deep in scrub, and water clarity is poor, then she might not have been visible and out of reach.

Finding her now (spotted from the bank by people walking along the river) likely reflects the body surfacing after time, which would explain why the police searching the river from the bank could have missed her earlier.

- Jeff

The whole thing is a sad affair, can you imagine what the father is going to tell the girls?

[Wickerman]

There is a water level gauge on the weir. There was a small peak yesterday (rise and fall of 80 cm) in response to a bit of rain. Might explain why she was found today.

Thanks, yes, there is a weir in the small town where I grew up, the flow over the top is never deep. That's the whole point, to slow the river down or even stop it if there's a mill built beside the river, as was the case in our town. The weir acted like a dam while the mill was in operation, when the mill gate was closed the water would flow over the weir barely an inch or so deep. Unless it was thaw season, or a major storm - neither are the case in this mystery.
Lots of rubbish collect at the weir, objects too heavy to flow over in shallow water, they just get caught there or sink to the bottom over time.
Maybe the rise you mention was sufficient to lift the body up, and over?

[Wickerman]

hi wick
well i think drowned bodies can sink and then resurface later, and a mile away isnt in tje immediate area either.

Yes, I thought they were wasting their time searching Morecambe Bay, that's way too far downstream in my view. Too many river bends to pass through when there has been no appreciable flooding.
So, the autopsy results is the next hurdle...

[Pcdunn]

Interesting. And sad. Hope the family gets closure if the identity is confirmed.

[Wickerman]

Sadly drowning in the river was the only plausible conclusion as far as I was concerned.
The Police have been given alot unnecessary criticism these last fee weeks as far as I'm concerned.

Hm, but finding a body in the river does not mean suicide.
If the autopsy finds a broken hyoid bone, that totally changes the whole investigation.
Not that I think they will, I'm just saying finding a body only confirms a location, not a means of death. That will come from the autopsy.

[Wickerman]

Re: General complaints about social media by police & family.
Not being a fan of social media myself, I stay away from it. I'm not on facebook, twitter or tictoc, but the police & family are complaining about speculation.

They cannot tell people what to say, both the police & Paul Ansell invited help from the public, they can't then turn around and tell the public what they can & cannot say.
If they don't like it, stay away from it, if I can do that (and I do) then so can they.
The nearest I get to social media is You Tube, there's enough crap on there as it is without going anywhere else.
It's like the old argument of "too much violence on TV", you can't control what people watch. If you don't like what you see (or hear), don't go there.
You (the police/family) have control, just use it, don't try control others when you've already asked them for help.