Nicola Bulley, what does everybody think?

[Abby Normal]

hey ero, diddles and caz
yes all this makes more and more sense to me and I agree, it does increasingly seem like a possible suicide. but whats so bizarre is that then why is the one closest to her-her boyfriend-so adament that she did not commit suicide and isnt in the river!?!
so wierd.

[Wickerman]

They often slightly overcompensate by appearing slightly more jovial or making lots of plans with people.

If it was suicide, it would not have been something she just decided to do on a whim. She would have planned it and played it over and over and over again in her head.

I'm puzzled why she would log into a business call that, by all accounts, did not involved her - she was only listening in, not participating. And, having listened in why put the phone down without logging out, it seems like an open ended thing to do.
It's that minor point that suggests to me she was interrupted. Did someone speak to her, and she intended to return to the call but put the phone down momentarily to respond to whomever came up to her.
Or, did she see something she had to respond to immediately, and put the phone down for a second?

Suicide is not a rational mindset so you cannot apply normal rules of rational thought to anything she did or didn't do.

And yet, suggesting rational solutions will not solve it, is also applying rational thinking.

I'm becoming more inclined to think this is a planned disappearance, or it is a crime and that there was a third party involved somehow.

[Ms Diddles]

Hi ero,

Nicola is an intelligent woman and said to be an "incredibly strong" swimmer. If she was capable of planning something like this, I feel she would have picked deeper and faster water for starters. She would have known that the menopause, however bad it gets, doesn't last forever, and her daughters need her now. She would have been very aware of this if she was planning to die.

What worries me is that friends and family say she had driven to that spot for her half hour walk with the dog "thousands of times", which means that anyone in the area could have picked up on this strict routine and known where she would be and when.

It could so easily have been someone else doing the planning, and not Nicola.

Love,

Caz
X

Hi Caz,

I concur that it's strange for someone who is a strong swimmer to choose such a seemingly innocuous stretch of water.

You make an interesting point about the routine of the walk in the park too, which I had not really considered before.

As far as the temporary nature of menopausal suffering and Nicola's daughter's need for their mum go, suicides are not usually that rational at the point of crisis.

What they know to be true intellectually and what they feel at that time are often completely at odds.

It's really difficult for a person in these circumstances to grasp the notion that their suffering will not last for ever.

It all feels too immediate and overwhelming.

Also the "think of your children / loved ones. How will they cope with this / without you?" technique is discouraged in suicide prevention.

It's been found that often, whilst the suicidal individual loves their kids / family dearly, they simply can't comprehend that they themself are needed.

They tend to be utterly convinced that their loved ones will be better off without them.

Heartwrenchingly sad, but true.

[erobitha]

Hi ero,

Nicola is an intelligent woman and said to be an "incredibly strong" swimmer. If she was capable of planning something like this, I feel she would have picked deeper and faster water for starters. She would have known that the menopause, however bad it gets, doesn't last forever, and her daughters need her now. She would have been very aware of this if she was planning to die.

What worries me is that friends and family say she had driven to that spot for her half hour walk with the dog "thousands of times", which means that anyone in the area could have picked up on this strict routine and known where she would be and when.

It could so easily have been someone else doing the planning, and not Nicola.

Love,

Caz
X

You could well be right, Caz. Right now, we do not have enough details to assume anything conclusively. There may be more the police have that we are not privy to. Or, quite possibly, they have made an absolute mess of the whole case and have done Nicola a massive injustice with their behaviour and handling of the case.

From what I can see, I would lean towards the river being the most likely option. It could be accidental or suicide. Or it could be an abduction by boat. However, with the details we have, I find it very hard to see beyond those possibilities. In my view, all of them are possible in their own way, but suicide would be the most likely I would suggest.

I can only speculate based on what we know.

[caz]

Where I live in Ireland, we have one of the highest rates of suicide in the country. I have been to two funerals in the last three years that were due to suicide.

The reality is if someone is committed to killing themselves they will most likely try and throw as many people off the scent as possible. They often slightly overcompensate by appearing slightly more jovial or making lots of plans with people.

If it was suicide, it would not have been something she just decided to do on a whim. She would have planned it and played it over and over and over again in her head.

Suicide is not a rational mindset so you cannot apply normal rules of rational thought to anything she did or didn't do.

Hi ero,

Nicola is an intelligent woman and said to be an "incredibly strong" swimmer. If she was capable of planning something like this, I feel she would have picked deeper and faster water for starters. She would have known that the menopause, however bad it gets, doesn't last forever, and her daughters need her now. She would have been very aware of this if she was planning to die.

What worries me is that friends and family say she had driven to that spot for her half hour walk with the dog "thousands of times", which means that anyone in the area could have picked up on this strict routine and known where she would be and when.

It could so easily have been someone else doing the planning, and not Nicola.

Love,

Caz
X

[Ms Diddles]

Where I live in Ireland, we have one of the highest rates of suicide in the country. I have been to two funerals in the last three years that were due to suicide.

The reality is if someone is committed to killing themselves they will most likely try and throw as many people off the scent as possible. They often slightly overcompensate by appearing slightly more jovial or making lots of plans with people.

If it was suicide, it would not have been something she just decided to do on a whim. She would have planned it and played it over and over and over again in her head.

Suicide is not a rational mindset so you cannot apply normal rules of rational thought to anything she did or didn't do.

Yeah, I'm in agreement on this Ero.

I also thought that your earlier post about how well organised the morning routine was that day was particularly perceptive.

If that level of organisation was atypical and out of the ordinary, that's a really big red flag in terms of suicidal ideation.

I've done quite a lot of suicide prevention training with my work, and two of the things to look out for are people quietly putting things in order (usually updating a will or clearing out their belongings/ giving stuff away), but doing more chores than normal and getting the kids ready for school in an unusually organised manner would not be inconsistent.

Also it's known that suicidal individuals sometimes experience a sense of relief once the decision has been made. They kind of come to terms with it, so somewhat counter-intuitively calmness and an apparent improvement in mood can be red flags too.

Weird though it seems, it's not that unusual for suicidal people to go about their business in an apparently normal fashion right before the act.

I'm kind of guessing here, but I would imagine that much the same could apply when someone has made a conscious decision to disappear too.

The text arranging a play date is a little weird though.

It would be unusual for a suicidal person to actively be making plans minutes before the act, although it could be that the friend was the one suggesting the arrangement and Nicola just passively agreed in a brief response.

It's hard to say without knowing the content of the messages.

As time goes on I'm leaning more towards suicide / planned disappearance.

I'm hoping for the latter, but fearing it's the former.

[Aethelwulf]

If she did go in the river I'm also a bit surprised none of her clothing (wellies or coat) has been found, especially if she went through the rougher water at the weir.

[erobitha]

Interesting video interview with the man who claimed he found the phone on the bench.

https://news.sky.com/story/nicola-bulley-dog-walker-thought-this-is-not-right-after-finding-phone-12813023

[erobitha]

It’s certainly strange Caz. If she was having issues then she appears to have been acting perfectly normally up until her disappearance and not only that but she was thinking ahead by arranging the play date. Can the effects of those kind of issues hit in an instant causing someone to act in a way that was completely out of character? It seems unlikely to me but I’m no expert on mental health issues.

Im still veering towards something sinister involving a second person though but who knows. I don’t know if it would be expected that she’d have been found by now if she’d ended up in the river but wouldn’t they have expected to have found her had she simply gone to ground? To us it’s a mystery but to family and friends it’s a nightmare.

Where I live in Ireland, we have one of the highest rates of suicide in the country. I have been to two funerals in the last three years that were due to suicide.

The reality is if someone is committed to killing themselves they will most likely try and throw as many people off the scent as possible. They often slightly overcompensate by appearing slightly more jovial or making lots of plans with people.

If it was suicide, it would not have been something she just decided to do on a whim. She would have planned it and played it over and over and over again in her head.

Suicide is not a rational mindset so you cannot apply normal rules of rational thought to anything she did or didn't do.

[Herlock Sholmes]

If Nicola's 'significant issues' were so bad that they sent her over the edge - possibly quite literally - at 9.30 that morning, I can't understand why she was still driving the children to school.

Something is still not making sense.

Love,

Caz
X

It’s certainly strange Caz. If she was having issues then she appears to have been acting perfectly normally up until her disappearance and not only that but she was thinking ahead by arranging the play date. Can the effects of those kind of issues hit in an instant causing someone to act in a way that was completely out of character? It seems unlikely to me but I’m no expert on mental health issues.

Im still veering towards something sinister involving a second person though but who knows. I don’t know if it would be expected that she’d have been found by now if she’d ended up in the river but wouldn’t they have expected to have found her had she simply gone to ground? To us it’s a mystery but to family and friends it’s a nightmare.

[erobitha]

Interestingly the Lancs Police have referred themselves to the watchdog, it’s almost like they are doubling down on how they have handled this whole case.

Hopefully the watchdog will concur with most reasonable people’s opinion that releasing that information about Nicola was in no way beneficial to finding her.

I still think she entered the river one way or another but if she is still alive, as Caz points out, this publicity over her personal life would not be helpful in finding her in the slightest.

[Aethelwulf]

The dogs location seems to depend which report you read, in todays Kent Online giving a minute by minute account it says
“At 9.33am, another dog walker found her phone on a bench beside the river, with Willow darting between the two”

saw it on the news the other night. the reporter showed the bench and the gate. Most reports I've seen say the bench and the gate into the field, but I didn't know which gate they were talking about until I saw the report from the scene.

[Abby Normal]

yes there is still a niggle that something is a bit off. Why was the dog running backwards and forwards between the bench and the metal swing gate behind the bench (away from the river) that leads into the field from a path? Te play date text, walking around the field listening to the teams call before she event got to the bench. Let's hope the police have't been totally blinded by there initial info. Given all the diving that has been done I'm amazed the lake at the caravan park hasn't been searched.

exactly. the caravan park is close to the bench and the gate just across a field. it even looks like you have to go directly through that gate to get to the bench.

[Yabs]

yes there is still a niggle that something is a bit off. Why was the dog running backwards and forwards between the bench and the metal swing gate behind the bench (away from the river) that leads into the field from a path? Te play date text, walking around the field listening to the teams call before she event got to the bench. Let's hope the police have't been totally blinded by there initial info. Given all the diving that has been done I'm amazed the lake at the caravan park hasn't been searched.

The dogs location seems to depend which report you read, in todays Kent Online giving a minute by minute account it says
“At 9.33am, another dog walker found her phone on a bench beside the river, with Willow darting between the two”

[Aethelwulf]

If Nicola's 'significant issues' were so bad that they sent her over the edge - possibly quite literally - at 9.30 that morning, I can't understand why she was still driving the children to school.

Something is still not making sense.

Love,

Caz
X

yes there is still a niggle that something is a bit off. Why was the dog running backwards and forwards between the bench and the metal swing gate behind the bench (away from the river) that leads into the field from a path? Te play date text, walking around the field listening to the teams call before she event got to the bench. Let's hope the police have't been totally blinded by there initial info. Given all the diving that has been done I'm amazed the lake at the caravan park hasn't been searched.