Nicola Bulley, what does everybody think?

[Monty]

Apologies, Monty, my post was insensitive. That poor family - I can't imagine what they must be going through. They did say that Nicola would not have wanted that much detail about her personal life to be made public, but it was arguably better coming from the police than from trolls on social media. I still feel mistakes were made over how much was revealed and when - both about Nicola herself and the direction the investigation was going from the outset, which only seemed to make the rampant speculation worse. It was never going to help find Nicola, safe or otherwise. A mother with young children and a strong swimmer, walking the family dog by a slow-moving river suddenly vanished for no apparent reason, and the police, while keeping an open mind, initially said they favoured an accident over a voluntary disappearing act, or anyone else being involved. They also said that Nicola had no health concerns. Many people, including the family, were naturally sceptical about an accidental drowning, which may have been why the police felt obliged to reveal the possibility of suicide, due to her being classed as high risk from the start.

The dive search team were only looking in the water itself, as their speciality, while the police were also searching by the river banks and elsewhere in the general area. I have no criticism of either group, as the discovery of a body yesterday by a pair of dog walkers does in no way imply it would have been in the same place all along, or easy to find any sooner.

I do take your point about misogyny running through all of society, but one more wrong does not make a right, and it's no comfort to know that the police can at times be as susceptible to it as any other section of the community. It was not my intention to single out the police as worse than anyone else in the way they deal with vulnerable women, but this case does invite many people in higher places - not just meddlesome ratbags like me - to make a few 'could do better in future' noises, in the way sensitive cases like this one are handled. The police cannot be expected to control unfettered speculation on social media, but there are always lessons to learn about how best to react to it.

Hope you are safe and well, Monty.

Love,

Caz
X

Apologies not needed Caz,

It’s been a terrible few weeks for the family, who should be the main focus.

If we should take anything from this it is not to take anything for granted, cherish loved ones and just be considerate to all.

God knows the world can be a bad enough place as it is, however we can all do better in making it a little more brighter.

x

[Ms Diddles]

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/feb/20/nicola-bulley-identified-as-body-recovered-from-lancashire-river?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

I guess that once it was announced that a body had been found, this was pretty much inevitable.

Bloody shame.

The family have revealed that Sky and ITV had both tried to contact them directly after it was announced that a body had been found.

Their statement takes no prisoners.

Quite rightly so.

[caz]

Press conference due to be held by Lancashire Police at 5.30 today - an hour from now.

Love,

Caz
X

[caz]

Your opinion Caz, and one I wager is based on limited knowledge of Nicola Bulley’s full personal circumstance, and includes her family who are also impacted.

Yes, grossly unfair and, more importantly, incorrect.

Misogyny runs through all of society, to point a finger at one organisation shows a lack of comprehension of that fact. We see it in Westminster, in the work place, here, everywhere, including the police. However to only draw focus on the latter kinda smacks of the blinkered and simplistic agenda ministers would rather the public adopt than the bigger picture in all of this.

If the personal information was withheld to come out at a later stage (which, according to her family, would happen via unscrupulous profiteers), I feel the criticism would have been as equally vehement.

Damed if you do…

Monty

Apologies, Monty, my post was insensitive. That poor family - I can't imagine what they must be going through. They did say that Nicola would not have wanted that much detail about her personal life to be made public, but it was arguably better coming from the police than from trolls on social media. I still feel mistakes were made over how much was revealed and when - both about Nicola herself and the direction the investigation was going from the outset, which only seemed to make the rampant speculation worse. It was never going to help find Nicola, safe or otherwise. A mother with young children and a strong swimmer, walking the family dog by a slow-moving river suddenly vanished for no apparent reason, and the police, while keeping an open mind, initially said they favoured an accident over a voluntary disappearing act, or anyone else being involved. They also said that Nicola had no health concerns. Many people, including the family, were naturally sceptical about an accidental drowning, which may have been why the police felt obliged to reveal the possibility of suicide, due to her being classed as high risk from the start.

The dive search team were only looking in the water itself, as their speciality, while the police were also searching by the river banks and elsewhere in the general area. I have no criticism of either group, as the discovery of a body yesterday by a pair of dog walkers does in no way imply it would have been in the same place all along, or easy to find any sooner.

I do take your point about misogyny running through all of society, but one more wrong does not make a right, and it's no comfort to know that the police can at times be as susceptible to it as any other section of the community. It was not my intention to single out the police as worse than anyone else in the way they deal with vulnerable women, but this case does invite many people in higher places - not just meddlesome ratbags like me - to make a few 'could do better in future' noises, in the way sensitive cases like this one are handled. The police cannot be expected to control unfettered speculation on social media, but there are always lessons to learn about how best to react to it.

Hope you are safe and well, Monty.

Love,

Caz
X

[Darryl Kenyon]

I still feel that the dog could have ran off chasing another animal , Nicola put the phone down in a second panicking followed Willow further downstream lost sight of him and slipped off the river bank while looking perhaps injuring herself as she did.

Regards Darryl

[Aethelwulf]

Thanks, yes, there is a weir in the small town where I grew up, the flow over the top is never deep. That's the whole point, to slow the river down or even stop it if there's a mill built beside the river, as was the case in our town. The weir acted like a dam while the mill was in operation, when the mill gate was closed the water would flow over the weir barely an inch or so deep. Unless it was thaw season, or a major storm - neither are the case in this mystery.
Lots of rubbish collect at the weir, objects too heavy to flow over in shallow water, they just get caught there or sink to the bottom over time.
Maybe the rise you mention was sufficient to lift the body up, and over?

There has also been a trend of increasingly high tides this week. It's a range of around 3m at the coast but it'll be quite a bit less than that 10 miles inland. Maybe the small rainfall peak and higher tides have been enough to mover her.

[Dickere]

Here in UK, we use the term post-mortem, not autopsy.

[JeffHamm]

Hmm, but so many circumstances appeared to speak against suicide, especially a planned suicide. An autopsy might clarify things, or even add to the mystery?

Yes, nothing is ruled out completely until the autopsy, but it is looking more planned based on the incomplete information we have. But incomplete is incomplete, and if the autopsy does find evidence of suspicious injuries then once again I will change my personal evaluation.

Yes, and I'm surprised how many media outlets refer to that bench as "her last known location", or "the last place she was seen", yet she was never seen by that bench by anyone, at anytime.

Yes, I agree. The last place I am aware she was seen is in a field some distance away. I was thinking that would be an important search location if there was foul play I am sure the police did search that location, I just haven't seen any papers mention it.

That's another point the police are going to be crucified for.
Unless it's eventual putrefaction has caused it to surface?

Bodies in water eventually fill will gas as early decomposition progresses, which brings them to the surface.

Ok, so if she did commit suicide, why leave the phone on the bench?
If she was the type of person to be overly concerned about trivia, I might expect her to tie the dog up to prevent it following her, but it was loose.
This case still has questions to resolve, maybe the autopsy will provide some answers.

I suppose she could have tied the dog up and it eventually got loose. Leaving the phone might have been to help locate her (if she entered there and somehow drifted as far as she did), or she may have left it as she didn't want to hear familiar work voices as she made her last walk? We will never truly know. Of course, if it turns out there was foul play, a lot of other explanations arise

The whole thing is a sad affair, can you imagine what the father is going to tell the girls?

I can't imagine. No matter the final outcome of the autopsy it is a tragedy for them all.

- Jeff

[Wickerman]

Re: General complaints about social media by police & family.
Not being a fan of social media myself, I stay away from it. I'm not on facebook, twitter or tictoc, but the police & family are complaining about speculation.

They cannot tell people what to say, both the police & Paul Ansell invited help from the public, they can't then turn around and tell the public what they can & cannot say.
If they don't like it, stay away from it, if I can do that (and I do) then so can they.
The nearest I get to social media is You Tube, there's enough crap on there as it is without going anywhere else.
It's like the old argument of "too much violence on TV", you can't control what people watch. If you don't like what you see (or hear), don't go there.
You (the police/family) have control, just use it, don't try control others when you've already asked them for help.

[Wickerman]

Sadly drowning in the river was the only plausible conclusion as far as I was concerned.
The Police have been given alot unnecessary criticism these last fee weeks as far as I'm concerned.

Hm, but finding a body in the river does not mean suicide.
If the autopsy finds a broken hyoid bone, that totally changes the whole investigation.
Not that I think they will, I'm just saying finding a body only confirms a location, not a means of death. That will come from the autopsy.

[Pcdunn]

Interesting. And sad. Hope the family gets closure if the identity is confirmed.

[Wickerman]

hi wick
well i think drowned bodies can sink and then resurface later, and a mile away isnt in tje immediate area either.

Yes, I thought they were wasting their time searching Morecambe Bay, that's way too far downstream in my view. Too many river bends to pass through when there has been no appreciable flooding.
So, the autopsy results is the next hurdle...

[Wickerman]

There is a water level gauge on the weir. There was a small peak yesterday (rise and fall of 80 cm) in response to a bit of rain. Might explain why she was found today.

Thanks, yes, there is a weir in the small town where I grew up, the flow over the top is never deep. That's the whole point, to slow the river down or even stop it if there's a mill built beside the river, as was the case in our town. The weir acted like a dam while the mill was in operation, when the mill gate was closed the water would flow over the weir barely an inch or so deep. Unless it was thaw season, or a major storm - neither are the case in this mystery.
Lots of rubbish collect at the weir, objects too heavy to flow over in shallow water, they just get caught there or sink to the bottom over time.
Maybe the rise you mention was sufficient to lift the body up, and over?

[Wickerman]

Very sad. Earlier I was leaning more towards an abduction, although given the "clutter" I wasn't convinced it was. At the time, though, that seemed the most plausible based upon what we know. I had wondered if she might have been battling some private daemons (in which case my weightings of plausibility changed because I waffle a lot), and since then it was released that she was (though it was not necessary for the police to reveal what those daemons were, as they had already indicated she was considered "high risk" and could have just restated that).

Hmm, but so many circumstances appeared to speak against suicide, especially a planned suicide. An autopsy might clarify things, or even add to the mystery?

The failure to find her in the river sooner is unfortunate, and at face value seems strange. But, she was a mile away from the bench....

Yes, and I'm surprised how many media outlets refer to that bench as "her last known location", or "the last place she was seen", yet she was never seen by that bench by anyone, at anytime.

...and I'm not sure how far down stream they had searched?

That's another point the police are going to be crucified for.
Unless it's eventual putrefaction has caused it to surface?

There appears to be quite a few bends in the river, and I would have expected a body to get caught at one of them closer to the bench (much depends upon the underlying topography of the river itself, of course, but there's about 7 or 8 "bends" in the river between where she was found and the bench's location; map in the Guardian here), and some of them quite sharp. Again, it is underwater details that are really what's important though, and only so much can be inferred from looking at the path of the river, but ignoring my own point, perhaps she left her phone on the bench, with the dog tied to it, and then walked down stream closer to where she was found and ended up entering the river much further downstream than it appeared?

Ok, so if she did commit suicide, why leave the phone on the bench?
If she was the type of person to be overly concerned about trivia, I might expect her to tie the dog up to prevent it following her, but it was loose.
This case still has questions to resolve, maybe the autopsy will provide some answers.

If they only searched along a mile stretch, and she was just a bit further down, then that would explain why she was not found. In any underwater search, a lot depends upon the visibility (water clarity) and in poor visibility it can be more of a search by feel than sight; if she was deep in scrub, and water clarity is poor, then she might not have been visible and out of reach.

Finding her now (spotted from the bank by people walking along the river) likely reflects the body surfacing after time, which would explain why the police searching the river from the bank could have missed her earlier.

- Jeff

The whole thing is a sad affair, can you imagine what the father is going to tell the girls?

[JeffHamm]

Very sad. Earlier I was leaning more towards an abduction, although given the "clutter" I wasn't convinced it was. At the time, though, that seemed the most plausible based upon what we know. I had wondered if she might have been battling some private daemons (in which case my weightings of plausibility changed because I waffle a lot), and since then it was released that she was (though it was not necessary for the police to reveal what those daemons were, as they had already indicated she was considered "high risk" and could have just restated that).

The failure to find her in the river sooner is unfortunate, and at face value seems strange. But, she was a mile away from the bench and I'm not sure how far down stream they had searched? There appears to be quite a few bends in the river, and I would have expected a body to get caught at one of them closer to the bench (much depends upon the underlying topography of the river itself, of course, but there's about 7 or 8 "bends" in the river between where she was found and the bench's location; map in the Guardian here), and some of them quite sharp. Again, it is underwater details that are really what's important though, and only so much can be inferred from looking at the path of the river, but ignoring my own point, perhaps she left her phone on the bench, with the dog tied to it, and then walked down stream closer to where she was found and ended up entering the river much further downstream than it appeared? If they only searched along a mile stretch, and she was just a bit further down, then that would explain why she was not found. In any underwater search, a lot depends upon the visibility (water clarity) and in poor visibility it can be more of a search by feel than sight; if she was deep in scrub, and water clarity is poor, then she might not have been visible and out of reach.

Finding her now (spotted from the bank by people walking along the river) likely reflects the body surfacing after time, which would explain why the police searching the river from the bank could have missed her earlier.

- Jeff