Nicola Bulley, what does everybody think?

[Wickerman]

It's just that the river is not that turbulent, it's pretty still, there is a flow but it's only slight. A floating mass is not going to go far, besides, there's a weir just downstream so that is where a body would stop.
I know it seems like a fringe idea, but a boat is about the only means in & out that will leave no trace, but it can't go downstream due to the weir, and only a short distance upstream.
There is a stretch of river just upstream where a vehicle track comes up to the river bank.
Sad case, but fascinating all the same.

[Abby Normal]

the chances of her being abducted via boat is close to nil..it just dosnt happen in the real world. and her dog would have been wet.

[Ms Diddles]

How have they established that she vanished within a 10 minute ‘window’?

I think it's based on the last witness sighting then the time when someone who knew her found the dog (who they recognised at the bench.

[Ms Diddles]

I'm inclined to believe in an accidental drowning.

Just because there is no body yet does not mean there won't be. It can be months, if at all when the body surfaces.

I can't believe an abductor would find the one path he would not be spotted or heard. As no vehicles can get down there, he would have had to have dragged her literally kicking and screaming and the dog going nuts. I don't think it would have been unnoticed.

For me the only plausible alternative to drowning was if she was taken by some kind of small boat. If an abductor pretended he was in trouble and needed assistance, he could in theory knock her out as she is trying to help and take her off in the boat to a point where he could have had a vehicle.

I stick with a sad tragic accident for now based on the information we know.

On balance I agree, Ero!

it's just that friends have confirmed that she could swim and the river really didn't look very treacherous.

I'm honestly not sure.

[Herlock Sholmes]

I think it's based on the last witness sighting then the time when someone who knew her found the dog (who they recognised at the bench.

Cheers Ms D. I’d got the impression that it was linked to the call but that didn’t seem to make sense.

[Herlock Sholmes]

We’re all in speculation territory of course but as it would seem unlikely that she left the scene unwillingly did she go with someone that she knew? Someone that she might have been having an affair with? Someone who had a red van that you can sleep in which he’d parked nearby and fortunately for him, or because he knew it, it was in a cctv blind spot. That was a line that I was just considering…..but, or should I say BUT…how likely is it that a young woman would have left her phone on a secluded bench for any length of time…..close to zero I’d think. Could she have put it down and forgotten it? If it was me…possible, but for a young woman, unlikely I’d think but not impossible if she’d been distracted. Who knows?

[Yabs]

The dog was found lurking between the bench/phone and the river.
That suggests to me she probably went in the river, a dog would instinctively lurk at the point they last see you.
If someone took her away the dog would try to follow and would be unlikely to turn back and return to that space.

Although why she hasn’t been found yet is baffling, I just hope I’m wrong and she is found ok and well.

[etenguy]

BUT…how likely is it that a young woman would have left her phone on a secluded bench for any length of time…..close to zero I’d think. Could she have put it down and forgotten it? If it was me…possible, but for a young woman, unlikely I’d think but not impossible if she’d been distracted. Who knows?

Hi Herlock

I wondered if the phone was left behind deliberately, to avoid the possibility of being tracked through the phone.

[Wickerman]

The dog was found lurking between the bench/phone and the river.
That suggests to me she probably went in the river, a dog would instinctively lurk at the point they last see you.
If someone took her away the dog would try to follow and would be unlikely to turn back and return to that space.

Although why she hasn’t been found yet is baffling, I just hope I’m wrong and she is found ok and well.

One news report had the dog wandering loose in the village just north of the river when it was seen by someone. Though whether that is accurate or not is hard to say at this point.

[ColdCaseJury]

This is the kind of case that I write about in my Cold Case Jury books - except this is not an historical crime but a real-life tragedy unfolding in real-time. The case is baffling because there is no evidence she fell in the river and no evidence she was abducted. My initial thoughts were that she had fallen in the river and swept out to sea. However, expert opinion appears to weigh against this possibility. If she was abducted, I'm pretty sure there was no struggle (zero evidence). She might have been told to leave her mobile phone and this would point to an armed assailant or someone with a weapon. A third possibility is that she wanted to disappear (i.e. start a new life) but I think is extremely unlikely given she had two children and she was walking the dog that - it must be stressed - did not follow her. In this scenario, I would have thought the dog would have been leashed to the bench.

After two weeks now, I fear we're not looking at a good outcome. But I'm often wrong. I hope I am.

[Herlock Sholmes]

Hi Herlock

I wondered if the phone was left behind deliberately, to avoid the possibility of being tracked through the phone.

Hi Eten,

Good point. Why didn’t I think of that?

[spyglass]

Sadly I think going into the water seems the likely answer.
I once read that the number of women in the middle ages who simply washed clothes in rivers often, got into trouble with cold and with soaked heavy clothing often drowned....it really happens that quickly and I dont think people really understand how it can happen.

I really hope this wasnt the case, but I dont understand the huge criticism of the Police in all this.

Regards.

[Pcdunn]

Interesting. I hadn't heard about this case, but after reading the BBC story, I noticed it said the dog's harness and leash were found on the ground by the bench.

This suggests to me that either Ms. Bulley or an unknown person released the dog and set it loose. If it was found in the village, that supports this idea, but doesn't explain why or who did it. It might support the idea that she deliberately disappeared, or could support her being abducted.

I watched a true-crime tv-movie recently about a married woman who hoaxed her own abduction several years ago, here in the States. She conned an internet boyfriend to take her from her jogging trail and keep her at his place. He thought she was running away with him, but after a week she reappeared at the family home with a vauge story of being taken captive by two Hispanic women. Eventually even her husband was doubtful of her account, and upon learning of the online boyfriend, he stopped supporting her and filed for divorce. She was arrested and tried for false reporting of a crime, put away in prison.

It isn't difficult to imagine what the Bulley family is overhearing as far as nasty gossip.

I hope this case has a happier ending.

[caz]

The family and friends are getting very fed up with all the speculation on social media, but the police would be unlikely to release any information to the general public that could interfere with their own enquiries and ongoing investigation into Nicola's disappearance, so we would not necessarily be told if they are working on some other theory besides the one where she accidentally slipped down the bank into the river, presumably while her dog was looking the other way. Clearly, all relevant phone and bank records will have been checked, but again we should not expect to know the outcome unless or until the police choose to say more.

It was shallow at the river's edge, and Nicola is said to be an "incredibly strong swimmer", but if she lost her balance as she went in, she could have hit her head on the rocks immediately beneath and been knocked unconscious, drifting into the deeper water away from the bank. There seems to be no evidence that she had any intention to 'disappear without trace', or could have done it so effectively with or without help, so sadly it does look like something unexpected happened to her, which may or may not have involved another person.

Love,

Caz
X

[Wickerman]

Sadly I think going into the water seems the likely answer.
I once read that the number of women in the middle ages who simply washed clothes in rivers often, got into trouble with cold and with soaked heavy clothing often drowned....it really happens that quickly and I dont think people really understand how it can happen......

Regards.

A waterlogged body should not go over a weir, it floats too low in the water. Doesn't anyone remember being told to take off your wellies if you get in trouble in water, they'll only drag you down.