Probability of Double Event

[lynn cates]

try again

Hello Tom.

"I've explained to Lynn precisely how and why and when the cachous came to be in Stride's hand. His response? "You can't prove it, so it didn't happen.""

Oops! Not me in the quotes. I'd never be so imprecise to make such a confusion between deduction and induction.

Now, you did indeed discuss your opinion about how the cachous got into her hand. So, let's proceed with that. They are facing one another (you can place Liz either East or West--your choice), he says "Clean out your pockets." She reaches in with left hand, cachous sticks between fingers, etc.

So far, so good. But now try to dovetail this with your (obviously correct) theory that the assailant was behind her when she was cut.

Cheers.
LC

[lynn cates]

Rombro

Hello Maria. Now THAT was a good post. But the outburst was surely not on this thread--right now all is laid back.

Umm, Kropotkin vs. Rombro (Krantz)? That's easy, just look for the one who is an old school socialist believing in the iron law of wages.

Cheers.
LC

[lynn cates]

right

Hello CD.

"I don't see why we have to envision Liz whirling like a dervish. I don't see the cachous coming out if the attack was swift and her body supported by her killer."

Precisely!! And this is my whole point then, now and always. (Oh, if only I could find a place to film!)

Cheers.
LC

[Tom_Wescott]

That is, until you attempt to explain a motive for the cachous.

Don't fall for it, my compact disc friend. I've explained to Lynn precisely how and why and when the cachous came to be in Stride's hand. His response? "You can't prove it, so it didn't happen." You can't satisfy Cates when it comes to the cachous. That's why, as a child, he was called Cachously Complicated Cates.

Yours truly,

Tom Wescott

[lynn cates]

imagine

Hello CD.

"...and if her body was turned around or moved?"

Then you would have cachous all over the yard--and not by the doctors spilling them.

Cheers.
LC

[c.d.]

It's also possible that her killer could have had his hand over hers preventing the cachous from coming out.

c.d.

[mariab]

Lynn Cates wrote:
What is an un-JTR outburst?
An un-JTR outburst is an outburst so violent, it can't even be tolerated on the JTR forums.

Lynn Cates wrote:
Who witnessed this?
I've witnessed many such outbursts on said forums already, even as a newbie.

Lynn, just for jolly, would you care to read a 3 pages short German proposal of mine chock full of socialist jargon, which truly sounds like written by Philip Krantz – or Pyotr Kropotkin? Actually it's pretty ingenious ( do I sound like Wescott now? But it truly is), as it's essentially been copied and pasted from pieces and parts from my dissertation, but I buffed up the socialist rhetoric into Ben Feigenbaum proportions. (It's for an appointment at the Marc Bloch Center, so the socialist rhetoric is pretty self-explanatory.)

[c.d.]

Hi Liz,

I don't see why we have to envision Liz whirling like a dervish. I don't see the cachous coming out if the attack was swift and her body supported by her killer.

c.d.

[lynn cates]

ah ha

Hello CD.

"As far as I can see it, Liz might have been killed:

1. as she walked into the yard;
2. as she was talking with her killer;
3. as she was preparing for sex;
4. during sex;
5. after sex;
6. as she was leaving the yard

She might have been spun around during the attack or changed direction after being cut. It is also possible that her killer moved her body when she was on the ground.

Taking all of the above into account, I don't see how we can possibly deduce anything from the direction of her feet."

Ah ha! Now I can see precisely why you think as you do. If not for the cachous, indeed all these would be possible.

But no problem, all you need do is assert that the assailant placed them in her hand post mortem and you'll come off smelling like Liz's rose. (That is, until you attempt to explain a motive for the cachous.)

Cheers.
LC

[Tom_Wescott]

C.D., Maria,

I've pointed out to Lynn in the past (and got my *** handed back to me for my troubles) that Edward Spooner and Edward Johnston handled Stride's body prior to Dr. Blackwell's arrival. It seems Johnston moved her around significantly. Therefore, we in no way can expect Stride to have been in exactly the same position she was in when Diemshitz found her, although I imagine it was quite similar, and I doubt her feet changed in position much.

Yours truly,

Tom Wescott

P.S. Of course I was joking with you, C.D. you think I'd ever seriously accuse you of embarrassing yourself?

[lynn cates]

quintessentially simple

Hello Maria.

"And Lynn definitely tends to over complicate things, but, for a philosophy professor, it would rather surprise me if he didn't."

No, no, no madam. Everything in my thinking and even in philosophy is simplicity itself. I am not capable of complicated thought.

Cheers.
LC

[lynn cates]

once more

Hello Maria.

"The direction of the bodies in action is a favorite query in Lynn Cates' thought process. It was not wrong at all to call it a Lynnism – or a LynnCatism? I've unsuccessfully tried to convince Lynn Cates that a reconstruction of body positions during an attack is possible ONLY for the very LAST part of the attack, thanks to the body/bodies found in situ. All else is conjecture."

Maria, one more time, this would all be correct if NOT for the cachous. To take an analogy:

Polly was killed in Buck's Row, lain on her back, feet pointing West. She and her assailant could have danced the pas de deux from Swan Lake just prior to her demise for all I know. As you say, in a scuffle there is a GOOD DEAL of body shifting. But now, take that same body and place an uncooked egg in it. If she were found in THAT condition, EITHER someone placed it in her hand post mortem OR she must have died in exactly the position in which she was found lying.

Same with Liz. Either she was exiting the yard or she was facing East with her assailant behind her. Sudden violent whirlings are ganz verboten.

Cheers.
LC

[mariab]

Sarcasm? What sarcasm? Just spin her around, kinda like a ouija board, and see if her feet end up facing north, then she's a Ripper victim. If they end up facing south, it was Michael Kelly. East, her secret boyfriend. And west, might it have been Westcott?
(And I profoundly apologize for disrespecting the deceased here.)

[lynn cates]

Jtr

Hello Abby.

"maybe that is why her reluctance to immediately accompany the man she was with into a dark alley led to the very un-JtR outburst that IS witnessed?"

1. What is an un-JTR outburst?

2. Who witnessed this?

Cheers.
LC

[c.d.]

Ok. Methinks I detects sarcasm.

c.d.