Probability of Double Event

[lynn cates]

questions/answers

Hello CD. That one's not going to bed any time soon. Just because a woman is not at home in the kitchen is not a sure sign of solicitation. And that is so even if 1 of them DOES solicit part time. Women are permitted to have lives as well as gentlemen.

I'd rather get to the truth of the matter, rather than make assumptions leading nowhere.

Abby, I'm not sure about very many things. Your name? Haven't the foggiest.

Cheers.
LC

[Fleetwood Mac]

Looking at statistics will give you the odds on whether it's likely or not that two such events could happen independently, but statistics exist to be confounded. The fact that something did not happen before or after does not prove that it has not happened at all.

I would be the first to admit it can't be proven.....but then what we're aiming for is how likely.....

I think this is a better analogy than the heads or tails one......

Suppose I told you I travelled across London today at rush hour traffic time.....from one side to the other......and I saw no one.....you wouldn't believe me...although it is possible because no is one under any obligation to be out and about when I travel across London......

These two women being killed by two different men is equally as unlikely.....

Reason being that no one has any evidence of London being empty at rush hour time.....nor do they have any evidence of two men killing women within an hour of each other and in the same area......but what you do have plenty of evidence for is london being full at rush hour time.....and women being killed aplenty but not in the incidence of the 'double event'....

As for the dissimilarities in the murders....fair enough....there are some....but then you have to weigh up which is more rare....and therefore which is more unlikely.....

Given the choice......with no investment in a JTR case....no suspects/theories to pur forward.....and I reckon the vast majority of people would go for killed by the same person....unless they ignored what we know of the incidence of murder...and that ain't much of an argument for anything.....

[Fisherman]

Caz:

"Except that Stride's killer (if not the ripper) would have needed to be psychic to guess that Eddowes would follow within the hour, and then, as people keep trying to argue, he could have inflicted more damage in seconds (either a second throat cut or a rip across the abdomen) but didn't, which would make this the worst copycat attempt in the history of crime.
An alibi is proving you were somewhere else at the time of the crime, so whoever killed Stride didn't have one. In the event, if that man had been found, we absolutely know that he'd have needed a bloody good alibi for each of the other murders, or he'd have hanged for them, even if Stride had not died from her single wound."

I merrily leave the "psychic" discussion to others, Caz! I am not suggesting that Stirde´s killer provided himself with an alibi - what I am saying is that he would be provided with such a thing by sheer luck; the alibi of having had Jack around seemingly would solve any murderous ventures on behalf of anybody else that wielded a knife on the same night.

"Yes, you've noticed - all the victims were not the same; did not behave the same; did not give their killer an identical murder opportunity. Well done."

Thanks, Caz!

"You miss the point here by a whisker: had Lechmere aka Cross come down Buck's Row a few seconds earlier, Nichols might now be a Stride; had Cadosche poked his nose through a gap in the fence at the wrong time, Chapman might now be a Stride; had Watkins returned to Mitre Sq a bit sooner, Eddowes might now be a Stride; had Cox pounded on the door to No.13 while Blotchy was inside, to see if her neighbour was okay, she and Kelly might now be two more Strides."

Actually, Caz, what I am saying is that what you just listed is something that points very much to Stride being a different piece of work altogether - for Cross, Cadosche, Watkins and Cox did not manage to change the course of events, did they? And we may for example ponder the fact that Chapman came BEFORE Stride, and it would seem that our boy was nowhere near losing his nerve on that occasion - in spite of Cadosche seeing to his tummy problems regularly, one low, rotting, crackfilled fence away. In Dutfield´s Yars, however, he seemingly lost it for some reason, and fled the scene...? My way of looking upon it, is that he may have felt invincible after getting away with Chapman.
Maybe it is not me missing by a whisker - maybe it´s you missing by a tail?

"with figures suggesting that 2 active knife murderers in one night (the unsolved ripping in Mitre Sq and the solved domestic in Westminster) made it quite exceptional in its own right, and absolutely not the norm, with only 17 knife murders of adult women in the whole of England spread over the 366 days of 1888, the argument for 3 different killers on that one night (because there were already 2) becomes untenable."

There are statistics, Caz, and then there´s real life. Todays newspapers here in Sweden carry an echo all the way back to 1888. Remember where Liz came from? Stora Tumlehed, on the island of Hisingen. Well, last weekend, within a day, two people went missing out on Hisingen; a 27-year old woman, and a young man of 19. Both had mobile phones on them, and both managed to get calls through after they had met with some sort of evil - the woman pressed her call button, and the first person on her telephone number list could hear her frightened voice, and the voices of two or more males. The man called home and during a short confused call he spoke of knives and sounded terrified. The incidents were 24 hours apart, just about.
Yesterday, the womans body (or so they think - for some reason they are not clear if it is a man or a woman they´ve found, but they guess it is the missing woman) was found hidden in a forest out on Hisingen, near a tram station. The man is still missing, but the police work from it being separate incidents.
So, a reasonably quaint neighbourhood with no murder or grave physical violence for the longest time, suddenly has TWO disappearances to explain, and they already know that one of the victims is dead. If the police are correct, and the two incidents are unrelated, they form what you would perhaps call an untenable suggestion.
The thing is, Caz, that these two young people were real human beings, not statistical numbers.

All the best,
Fisherman

PS. I´ll keep you posted about the proceedings, and believe me - I´d rather have just the one perpetrator ...

[Trevor Marriott]

[QUOTE=Hunter;148838]Kate Eddowes was killed by one effective knife stroke also. Her killer didn't seem to think it necessary for a second one. Also, neither victims' neckerchief seemed to get in the way. the path of the cut following the edge of it in Stride's case and the cut above it in Eddowes' case.

I have to disagree with you there Eddowwes was not killed with such a stroke I belive that the mortuaryphoto shows that the knife was stuck deep into her throat and drawn across which almost decapitated her. That is totally different to the wound inflicted on Stride which might suggest Eddowes wound was inflicted from behind.

The fact that both of these women were cut, not stabbed, is significant as the latter seemed more pronounced in other (domestic murders)... let alone the obvious signs of a struggle which were non-existent in the two 'Whitechapel murders' of Sept. 30. Add to that the victimology and the constricted geographical location that these took place; that both women were found very close to a wall or fence in the darkest part of the given areas; time of day, and the fact that persons with possible motives were investigated - as was standard proceedure; one can not simply dissmiss the likelyhood of both being perpetrated by the same individual. It is certainly not conclusive as anything is possible, but still is the most practical diagnosis.

One has to think about the fact that the killer went with those victims to those locations for the purpose of having sex. The fences are relevant as i would imagine that for the purpose of the sexual act I have no doubt the women would have had their hands on the fence facing it to make it easy for the cliinet to have sex from behind. Had that happened the killer would have had them at a disadvantage

[Rubyretro]

[

QUOTE=c.d.;148841]A nicely thought out and articulated post, Hunter.

c.d.

[/QUOTE]

I'll second that

[c.d.]

A nicely thought out and articulated post, Hunter.

c.d.

[Hunter]

Kate Eddowes was killed by one effective knife stroke also. Her killer didn't seem to think it necessary for a second one. Also, neither victims' neckerchief seemed to get in the way. the path of the cut following the edge of it in Stride's case and the cut above it in Eddowes' case.

Both women appeared to not expect what was to happen. They may have been perpetrated by two different individuals, but these killings show the mark of premeditation and not the mark of an altercation escallating into a rage killing.

The fact that both of these women were cut, not stabbed, is significant as the latter seemed more pronounced in other (domestic murders)... let alone the obvious signs of a struggle which were non-existent in the two 'Whitechapel murders' of Sept. 30. Add to that the victimology and the constricted geographical location that these took place; that both women were found very close to a wall or fence in the darkest part of the given areas; time of day, and the fact that persons with possible motives were investigated - as was standard proceedure; one can not simply dissmiss the likelyhood of both being perpetrated by the same individual. It is certainly not conclusive as anything is possible, but still is the most practical diagnosis.

Lynn, this has been posted before, but Stride was arrested for soliciting within the previous year and both Thomas Bates and the lady from Tiger Bay suggested that was what she still did on occasion... let alone the fact that she was on the street at a late hour. Swanson's report states that she was a prostitute and his information was undoubtedly compiled from Abberline, who knew the district better that we can ever attempt to do. To dismiss all of that over more speculative other circustances is assuming what may be posible, but less likely, given the information at hand.

[Abby Normal]

Hello Abby. What makes you sure these were prostitutes? Sure, Liz had been registered in another country, 2 decades before, but . . . ?

Cheers.
LC

Hi
what makes you sure my name is Abby?

[c.d.]

Aw c'mon, Lynn,

Can we say with absolute 100% metaphysical certainty that any of the C5 were prostitutes? Why don't we just all agree that it is much more probable than not that they were prostitutes (at least part time) so we can put that tired, old argument to bed once and for all.

c.d.

[Rubyretro]

Chava -I have to disagree :

All the other Ripper murderers either had no one near, or only 'innocent passer by witnesses'. However, at Liz Stride's murder site we have the scene with BSM and Pipeman in a tiny time span before the murder..that throws up so many questions and (maybe potential clues), if we assume for a minute that Stride was a Ripper victim.

Next is the murder site -next to the club, and taken together with Eddowes' murder and the GSG.

Then there is the question of the idea of the 'Double Event', and the Dear Boss letter..

I think that it's the murder that might hold a key...if only we knew how to interpret the clues..and therein lies the fascination..

[lynn cates]

prostitutes

Hello Abby. What makes you sure these were prostitutes? Sure, Liz had been registered in another country, 2 decades before, but . . . ?

Cheers.
LC

[Abby Normal]

[QUOTE=Trevor Marriott;148746]The old sugestion that the killer of Stride was disturbed keeps surfaing and giving rise to the age old suggestion that the killer was still hell bent on continuing his murder spree later that night.

However I belive that one of the doctors suggested that the time of death of Stride was much earlier thanwhen everyone belives and that she bled to death. If that be the case then she was murdered by another hand, otherwise if her death had been earlier then the killer would have had the time to mutilate her body which he clearly didnt.

Ther are those who want to beleive she was killedby the ripper who will no doubt want to disregard the doctors opinion. On the other side those who dont subscribe to her being killed by the same hand as Eddowes will use it to corroborate their views.

You have to remember that Whitechapel in 1888 was unique there was no other place in the country to compare with life and death there at that time, so anything is possible.

One also has to look at the wound inflicted on Stride, the way it was inflicted is so different to the others, add to that all the other major issues i.e differnet time, loctaion etc.

Balance of probability is that she was not a ripper victim

Hi

In the midst of a murder spree-one in which prostitutes are killed by throat slashing in dark alleys, a prostitute is found dead in a dark alley with her throat cut and then in a matter of minutes and a short distance away another prostitute is found dead in a dark alley with her throat slashed.

B]Balance of probability is that she was not a ripper victim [/B]
I think the balance of probability is pretty heavy that she was a ripper victim.

Compared to the above major similarities are not the discrepencies outweighed?
Taking your view, could not one say that all the murders, looking at their minor differences, then be construed as being from different hands?

[Chava]

To be honest, I don't think it's all that important. Looking at statistics will give you the odds on whether it's likely or not that two such events could happen independently, but statistics exist to be confounded. The fact that something did not happen before or after does not prove that it has not happened at all. In any case, Ripper victim or not, Stride really doesn't give us very much information. If the Ripper killed her, he was interrupted before he could do any of his trademark 'work'. There doesn't seem to be much if anything left at the scene. Eye-witness accounts don't give us a whole lot. In my opinion, this isn't the murder that will tell us much about the killer. In my opinion the murders that might do that are Chapman and MJK. Chapman because every element of the killings are present. MJK because it was the last and most ferocious.

[c.d.]

Hi Sam,

Good to see you back. I hope you spent the time away working on your bad puns.

As for Jack failing to provide a second cut, why didn't her killer (be it someone other than Jack), cut a second time to ensure that she was dead? It seems that argument cuts both ways (pun intended).

c.d.

[caz]

In fact, there is good reason to believe that Jack was the killer of Stride. But that does NOT owe to how the cut on Strides neck looked. It owes to the fact that we KNOW that he was active on the night, and we KNOW that he was in the vicinity, and we can work out a perfectly feasible schedule with one stop in Berner Street and one at Mitre Square. That is the most compelling reason to dub Jack the killer of Stride.

Now you're talking - and we can add in the sheer rarity of adult women getting murdered by a cut to the throat anywhere in England at the time.

But the location, the timing, the cut, the left-out mutilation, the differing position of the body, the noted affectionate meeting with Marshall´s man, the BS man incident - they all tell a different story altogether. And all of these deviations belong to one victim and one victim only. It´s not as if we had the BS man scene with Eddowes, a shallow cut only to Kelly´s neck, Chapman left un-mutilated due to Cadosche scaring the Ripper off or Nichols cut at closing time for the pubs - no, ALL of the differences, each and every one of them, are collected at one and the same spot - Dutfield´s Yard.

Yes, you've noticed - all the victims were not the same; did not behave the same; did not give their killer an identical murder opportunity. Well done. You'd be surprised at how many of those who claim to be here only for the poor victims think of the ripper's victims as fembots, dancing to his tune and not deviating from it.

You miss the point here by a whisker: had Lechmere aka Cross come down Buck's Row a few seconds earlier, Nichols might now be a Stride; had Cadosche poked his nose through a gap in the fence at the wrong time, Chapman might now be a Stride; had Watkins returned to Mitre Sq a bit sooner, Eddowes might now be a Stride; had Cox pounded on the door to No.13 while Blotchy was inside, to see if her neighbour was okay, she and Kelly might now be two more Strides.

If three or more fatal throat cuts in one night had been the norm for the time and place (ie London in general in 1888), the argument for three independent murderers on Sept 30 1888 would not be such a logical fallacy.

But with figures suggesting that 2 active knife murderers in one night (the unsolved ripping in Mitre Sq and the solved domestic in Westminster) made it quite exceptional in its own right, and absolutely not the norm, with only 17 knife murders of adult women in the whole of England spread over the 366 days of 1888, the argument for 3 different killers on that one night (because there were already 2) becomes untenable.

Love,

Caz
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