Berner Street: No Plot, No Mystery

[JeffHamm]

Hi Jeff,

Thank you for your kind remarks.

I notice that you are using 1:10:30 for Eagle's arrival at Leman St P.S.. I would think that in the light of lack of evidence to the contrary we would need to accept 1:10 as the recorded time of Eagle's report to the desk Sergeant, so allowing the 30 seconds for Eagle to enter the Station and explain the situation, wouldn't that make his arrival at the door as 1:09:30 ?

Best regards,
George

Hi George,

I've got 1:10:30 because we don't know what the seconds hand read, but it is somewhere during that minute. So, to avoid biasing the choice towards early in the minute or late in the minute, I put the unknown second hand at the half way point (neither in the first nor second half of the minute). One can then just look at the times with a +-30 "window" to account for the unknown number of seconds.

As for the arrival at the door vs recorded time, I would think Eagle would enter and alert the inspector right away, and that should take very little time, but one could adjust things if they felt it necessary and had reason to think they had a good idea of how much time it would take between his arrival at the door and his presence being noted and recorded.


- Jeff

[JeffHamm]

Hi Jeff,

What we also see is that your calculations of Lamb's arrival in the yard go very well with Blackwell's timing, as indirectly referenced by Lamb himself when he stated: "Dr. Blackwell was the first doctor to arrive, and he did so in ten or twelve minutes after my arrival. I had no watch with me, and so I only guess the time."

If one, however, thinks that Lamb actually mistook Johnston for Blackwell, then Lamb would have arrived in the yard between 1:00 and 1:03 - on Blackwell's watch that is. So, in that case, Blackwell's watch and the clock at the police station were out of sync by a maximum of some 6 minutes (and a minimum of 1 minute).

All the best,
Frank

Good point Frank. And the correspondence between the estimations of PC Lamb's arrival and his estimation of how long it took for Dr. Blackwell's arrival is another indication that I think what we're putting together here is a reasonable description of these events. A "core sequence" if you will. While nobody is suggesting we have the times exactly correct, we don't need that level of precision; we're not conducting a physics experiment after all.

Adopting a similar approach, I think we can then connect to this the sequence of events that lead to Dr. Blackwell's arrival, and as you suggest, work out the range of clock differences between the police station and his watch. I have little doubt that those values would produce a range of values that are entirely unsurprising.

Having done this before but fixing the times to Dr. Blackwell's watch (which the simulations are based upon), it should be possible to tie in other events. For example, Brown hears the runners on Fairclough, and estimated a 15 minute duration from the time he picked up his supper at the shop. The return trip for the Fairclough runners takes about 2 minutes (slightly less, but I'll call it 2 here). So he would have heard them roughly 1 minute after they departed (1:01:38 in the Eagle "hurries" version), and we can then work backwards from that estimated time to place him at the corner of Berner and Fairclough, where he sees a woman he later identifies as Stride. Taking his 15 estimate as stated that would mean at 12:46:38. If we consider how well people estimate durations, though, then we have a range of durations from 6m 13s to as long as 37m 56s, with an average of 12m 33s! (Like I said, in general people are rubbish at this). So if we go with the average, that would place him there around 12:49. So if he did see Stride, she was still alive at that point. Although Fanny doesn't mention seeing Brown, Brown never enters Berner Street so she may simply have not noticed him during the brief period he exits the shop and heads east on Fairclough.

While Fanny's vigil gets described anywhere from nearly the whole time between 12:30 and 1:00 (The Daily News from October 1, 1888), that same edition of the paper also has a story where it says she went out at around 12:45 and remained there for 10 minutes. The first story names her as Mrs. Mortimer, and says she lived 4 doors from the club, the 2nd story doesn't give a name and says she lives 2 doors from the club. In The London Evening News, October 1st, she's described as living 3 doors from the club (and that edition has a repeat of the story placing her 2 doors from the club). The first version (the whole time) is repeated in a number of papers on Oct 1st, so that seems to be something sent out by Central News (so really just one story). The 2nd one (unnamed 2 doors) is also repeated a few times, so again, seems to be something sent out by Central News to multiple papers. A few papers have reworded or summarized things, but we generally have two versions, a "whole time between 12:30 and 1:00" and a 10 minute vigil in the vicinity of 12:45, that seems to start shortly after PC Smith patrols Berner Street and ends shortly before she hears the pony and cart pass (Deimschutz), after which all the commotion begins. In a few news stories her reason for going to the door in the first place was to shut the bolts, and she ended up staying there for a bit, so the 10 minute vigil seems the more reasonable, and the "nearly the whole time" version sounds a bit more of someone being a bit dramatic and engaging in a bit of hyperbole. Also, given the only person she sees while on the step is Goldstein, if she was there from 12:30 to 1:00, we have to push every other witness who arrives outside of that window, which seems unreasonable. So given she estimates her vigil was 10 minutes in the other stories, and given that estimates of 10 minutes tend to reflect real durations between 3m 48s and 27m 00s, with an average of 7m 56s (call that 8 minutes), I would start by trying to work out where in the sequence of events to place an 8 minute window for her vigil based upon the information concerning what she says happened just before it and just after it (PC Smith passes shortly before, and Deimschutz arrives shortly afterwards).

If we start by placing her vigil to span 12:45, and her stated 10 minutes is actually closer to 8, that would give us a rough guess of Fanny's vigil being something like 12:41 to 12:49 ish. And we could adjust that based upon the fine tuning of other results, such as PC Smith's patrol, and so forth. One can also then start to consider the duration of that vigil (while the average is 8 minutes, that's just a starting point and other evidence may point to it being longer or shorter than that), and so forth. Somewhere in that vigil we have Goldstein walk down Berner Street, which we can't place exactly other than it occurs during her vigil. We have some club members arrive that she doesn't see, so they appear to arrive before she went out side, and so on.

It's sort of like building a jigsaw puzzle, sometimes you put together a string of pieces, and have a rough idea where in the overall puzzle they go, and as one fills in more of the details, you eventually find the right placement.

To be honest, when I was putting together the simulation, I was actually surprised at how things actually fit pretty well.

- Jeff

[FrankO]

Hi Frank,

The sequence that suggests to me that Lamb mistook Johnson for Blackwell is:

Mr. Edward Johnson: [Coroner] Did you undo the dress? - The dress was not undone when I came. I undid it to see if the chest was warm. The outer gates were closed shortly after I came.

Constable Henry Lamb: Dr. Blackwell was the first doctor to arrive; he came ten or twelve minutes after myself, but I had no watch with me.
[Coroner] Did any one of the crowd say whether the body had been touched before your arrival? - No. Dr. Blackwell examined the body and its surroundings. Dr. Phillips came ten minutes later. Inspector Pinhorn arrived directly after Dr. Blackwell. When I blew my whistle other constables came, and I had the entrance of the yard closed. This was while Dr. Blackwell was looking at the body. Before that the doors were wide open.

Mr. Frederick William Blackwell: Dr. Phillips came about twenty minutes to half an hour after my arrival. The double doors of the yard were closed when I arrived, so that the previous witness must have made a mistake on that point.

Lamb testified that he closed the gates after Blackwell arrived, but Blackwell testified specifically that Lamb was mistaken on this point, and Johnson corroborates that opinion by testifying that the gates were closed after he arrived. This would mean that Lamb testified that Johnson (mistaken for Blackwell) arrived 10-12 minutes after he did, which would coincide with Blackwell testifying that he arrived at 1:16, and Johnson testifying that he arrived 3-4 minutes before Blackwell. This would fit with Lamb's testimony of seeing Eagle at 1:00, or shortly before, but complicates the arrival of Pinhorn directly after Johnson (mistaken for Blackwell). It also creates conflict with Lamb's estimate of Phillips arriving 10 minutes after Johnson (mistaken for Blackwell) and Blackwell's estimate that Phillips arrived 20-30 minutes after he did, but of course that conflict would not be resolved by the 3-4 minute difference in arrival times of Johnson and Blackwell.

Best regards,
George

Hi George,

As I said to you in a previous post: it may have been that Lamb mistook Johnston for Blackwell, but, then again, it may not.

I can certainly follow your interpretation, and you may well be right, but it would depend on how shortly “shortly” really was in Johnston’s “The outer gates were closed shortly after I came.”

Just look at Spooner’s testimony. He is quoted as having stated: “When Police-constable Lamb came I helped him to close the gates of the yard, and I left through the club.”

If we’d only have this phrase, then we might believe Spooner helped Lamb close the gates right after Lamb arrived and that he immediately left after helping to close the gates. But we know that it didn’t happen like that, as the phrase above was followed by some questions:
“Inspector Reid: I believe that was after you had given your name and address to the police? - Yes.
And had been searched? - Yes.
And examined by Dr. Phillips? - Yes.”

Then, besides Blackwell’s quote above, we have this version:
“The CORONER. - Could you see there was a woman there when you went in?
Witness. - Yes. The doors were closed when I arrived.”

This version seems to suggest (but at least could be interpreted like that) that the doors were closed when he was arriving/were closed behind him, just after he got in. Which would correspond with what Lamb stated: that he had the gates closed while the examination by Blackwell was going on.

Also, the previous witness who said something about the gates being closed, was Spooner, not Lamb. And as Spooner’s testimony could be understood as if he helped closed the gates soon after Lamb’s arrival, Blackwell could well have meant that they weren’t closed until he arrived and that this is why he “that the previous witness must have made a mistake on that point.”

Then, as you suggest, Pinhorn’s arrival between Johnston and Blackwell would mean that the station clock and Blackwell’s watch were out of sync. Not by much, but out of sync nonetheless and they wouldn’t if we’d assume Pinhorn arrived a minute or so after Blackwell.

The thing that makes me lean further towards Lamb being right rather than wrong when he called the first doctor to arrive “Blackwell”, is that I think it’s quite unlikely that:

• PC 426H wouldn’t have understood that it was Blackwell’s assistant who was coming with him and that the doctor himself would come as soon as he was clothed;
• Lamb wouldn’t have noticed/understood that Johnston handed the case over to Blackwell as soon as the latter arrived, just as Johnston stated he did;
• Lamb mentioned the arrival of doctor Phillips, but would not mention the man who arrived between Johnston (who he mistook to be Blackwell) and dr. Phillips, who, quite probably, did a more thorough examination than Johnston. Who did he think that man would have been?

Plus, Lamb also mentioned that the doctor examined the walls, and Blackwell stated:
“The CORONER. - Was there any blood on the side of the house, or splashes on the wall?
Witness. - No. It was very dark at the time, and I only examined it by the policeman's lamp.”

All the best,
Frank

[Michael W Richards]

1. We don’t know when she was last on her doorstep before she came onto her doorstep after hearing the footsteps.

2. We don’t know what time she came onto her doorstep after hearing the footsteps.

3. We don’t know how long she was on her doorstep for.

4. Great witness. And you use her to dismiss Schwartz and Diemschitz.

5. If Diemschitz returned earlier than she said why didn’t she see him?

6. She heard a cart at around 1.00. Clearly this was Diemschitz unless someone was passing with a mobile phone with a horse and cart on cobbles ringtone?

I really wish the only person who constantly challenges my every post...you...would have some decent argument to make. Always disappointed in that regard though.

1. We know one period when she was at her door, and its right up to the time Louis says he arrived. She was at her door a few minutes saw Goldstein at around 12:55, then at 1 went in. She didnt see or hear Louis or a cart at 1am. A sound is not a visual id. But you still espouse he invisibly, I imagine, sneaks past Fanny AND the young couple. Remarkable fella that anarchist.
2. Again, you make a stand on miniscule points that mean nothing and ignore the most salient ones.
3. See answer 1....we do, she told us in her statement.
4. Unbiased, clear view of the street and of the gated entrance, at her door, and inside, during those most critical 30 minutes,.. saw and validated the young couple that Brown ends up seeing, her claimed location is validated at 12:55 when she sees Goldstein and he later admits it was him, and most relevantly....she did NOT see any cart and horse just before and up to 1am. Louis would have been entering the street from the far end ri9ght about when she saw Goldstein. So yeah, she has value.

Now your virtuous, accurately timed witnesses;

No one saw Eagle return to the club
No one saw Louis return to the club
Lave didnt see Eagle when they occupied the same space at the same time.
Eagle couldnt be sure Liz wasnt lying there at 12:40
Louis's stated arrival time is directly contradicted by 3 witnesses, and the timing Lamb gave for his sighting of Eagle.
Louis quite simply could not have arrived at the same time Lamb and Eagle return to the club, why you dont understand that is a head shaker. You cant have someone arrive at 1, and at the same time have a search party for police, initiated by the discovery, end up arriving at the same time Louis first arrives. Why would anyone claim that makes sense...but you did and do.

To say you dont get it falls so short of the truth, youve had the same errors you repetitively state pointed out to you over and over and yet still repeat them.

I dont mind debate, I do mind when the least capable person to engage in one wants to engage in it with me. Because I can argue the evidence, just not whats concocted by you. You defy reason, one wonders if its intentional. I hope for your sake it is.

I believe its time now for you to tell me that the entire UK and most of the free world agrees with you, not me...or did I steal your thunder?

When you can tell time, both read and comprehend, and understand what logic, reason and precedents are, then we can take this up again. But save this repetitive nonsense please.

[Herlock Sholmes]

I really wish the only person who constantly challenges my every post...you...would have some decent argument to make. Always disappointed in that regard though.

Please try and focus on the subject at hand Michael and not on me.

1. We know one period when she was at her door, and its right up to the time Louis says he arrived. She was at her door a few minutes saw Goldstein at around 12:55, then at 1 went in. She didnt see or hear Louis or a cart at 1am. A sound is not a visual id. But you still espouse he invisibly, I imagine, sneaks past Fanny AND the young couple. Remarkable fella that anarchist.
2. Again, you make a stand on miniscule points that mean nothing and ignore the most salient ones.
3. See answer 1....we do, she told us in her statement.
4. Unbiased, clear view of the street and of the gated entrance, at her door, and inside, during those most critical 30 minutes,.. saw and validated the young couple that Brown ends up seeing, her claimed location is validated at 12:55 when she sees Goldstein and he later admits it was him, and most relevantly....she did NOT see any cart and horse just before and up to 1am. Louis would have been entering the street from the far end ri9ght about when she saw Goldstein. So yeah, she has value.


I notice that you ducked point 5. Never mind. Let’s pick one newspaper report at random and find out if Fanny does indeed tells us when she was and wasn’t on her doorstep:

Daily News,

Mrs. Mortimer, living at 36, Berner-street, four doors from the scene of the tragedy, says: I was standing at the door of my house nearly the whole time between half-past twelve and one o'clock this (Sunday) morning, and did not notice anything unusual. I had just gone indoors, and, when I heard a commotion outside, and immediately ran out, thinking that there was another row at the Socialists' Club close by (……) It was just after one o'clock when I went out, and the only man whom I had seen pass through the street previously was a young man carrying a black shiny bag.

• So from this version, repeated in other papers of course, we get that she was on her doorstep ‘nearly the whole time’ and that she went back out ‘just after one..’ but she doesn’t say how long that she’d been inside before she came back out.

Also in the Daily News we get this:

A woman who lives two doors from the club has made an important statement. It appears that shortly before a quarter to one o'clock she heard the measured, heavy tramp of a policeman passing the house on his beat. Immediately afterwards she went to the street-door, with the intention of shooting the bolts, though she remained standing there for ten minutes before she did so..

• So now she goes onto her doorstep just before 12.45 and just after hearing Smith pass (who of course said that he passed at 12.30/35) and she stays there for 10 minutes. So is that 10 minutes from 12.31 or 12.32 or 12.33 or 12.34 or 12.35 or 12.36 or 12.37 or 12.38 or 12.39 or 12.40 or 12.41 or 12.42 or 12.43 or 12.44? So did she go back inside at 12.41 or 12.42 or 12.43 or 12.44 or 12.45 or 12.46 or 12.47 or 12.48 or 12.49 or 12.50 or 12.51 or 12.52 or 12.53 or 12.54 or 12.55? And how do we know that her ‘10 minutes’ was accurate - we know how poor we can be at estimating periods of time, so was she there for the full 10 minutes or 7 or 8 or 9 or even 11 or 12?

And if she came onto her doorstep at say 12.40 can we really believe that she already been on her doorstep once after 12.30 before going. Ack inside only to return 10 minutes or so later? If not then we’ve just lost a third of the 30 minutes so ‘nearly the whole time doesn’t really cut it.

I’ve invented none of the above Michael. I’ve simply gone on the information that we have from the newspapers. So when I say that we have no way of knowing exactly when Fanny was and wasn’t on her doorstep I’m telling it literally as it is. We don’t know. So the obvious question is - why do you feel that you know and you not only feel that you know but you are so confident in that ‘knowledge’ that you believe that you can use Fanny to dismiss other witnesses. You are happy to point out and denigrate uncorroborated witnesses but not one person saw Fanny on her doorstep. No witnesses is more uncorroborated as Fanny. But you can’t acknowledge this so you have to accuse other witnesses of lying. How do you know that Fanny wasn’t just an old busybody who wanted her 15 minutes of fame?

Then you again use the ‘young couple’ as validation. You also make the assumption that this couple was the same pair that Brown saw. No one knows who this couple were. Why didn’t they come forward and talk to the police if they spoke to Fanny? Why are they so trustworthy in your eyes? Is it just - club members (untrustworthy, vicious anarchists) non-club members (solid, honest citizens)? It appears conveniently so for you.

Again you ascribe a 12.55 time to Goldstein when there has never been a time in connection with his passing. You keep repeating though in the hope that it will be accepted as fact.

Then, and this is Bizarre City Central, you dismiss Louis because Fanny didn’t see him (despite that fact that, in her own words, she came back onto her doorstep just after 1.00 - meaning that she’d gone inside at some unspecified time before 1.00 - meaning that she was indoors at around 1.00) But the worst part is Michael that you turn the biggest of blind eyes to the fact that this star witness, who was supposedly on her doorstep nearly the whole time between 12.30 and 1.00, never saw Louis returning earlier either. You have him returning at 12.40 so WHY DIDN’T FANNY SEE HIM? You can’t have it both ways Michael.


Now your virtuous, accurately timed witnesses;

No one saw Eagle return to the club

Not true, although it doesn’t really matter because you would simply call them liars anyway. No one was asked whether they’d seen Eagle returning because it wasn’t important. The club members would undoubtedly have confirmed it.

No one saw Louis return to the club

He was seen by several when he arrived but you resort to the ‘members are all liars tactic.’

Lave didnt see Eagle when they occupied the same space at the same time.

Lave was in the yard, moving around, for an unknown length of time. Eagle walking through the gate and into the club would have taken 5 seconds. He has his back to him in the dark - he doesn’t see him. He’s down by the printing office - he doesn’t see him. He goes to the loo - he doesn’t see him.

Eagle couldnt be sure Liz wasnt lying there at 12:40

It’s called honesty, it was very dark

Louis's stated arrival time is directly contradicted by 3 witnesses, and the timing Lamb gave for his sighting of Eagle.

Or Michael, how about this, those 3 witnesses are directly contradicted by around 10 other witnesses.

Two were estimating and we don’t know how they arrived at their estimates. And Spooner gave two different times in the same statement. So - 3 rubbish witnesses. The time that Lamb gave for seeing Eagle fits perfectly. Look at the work that Jeff and Frank have done. You have to resort to stretching out times beyond breaking point to shoehorn your points into place.

Louis quite simply could not have arrived at the same time Lamb and Eagle return to the club, why you dont understand that is a head shaker. You cant have someone arrive at 1, and at the same time have a search party for police, initiated by the discovery, end up arriving at the same time Louis first arrives. Why would anyone claim that makes sense...but you did and do.

No one makes that claim and you know it very well Michael.

To say you dont get it falls so short of the truth, youve had the same errors you repetitively state pointed out to you over and over and yet still repeat them.

I dont mind debate, I do mind when the least capable person to engage in one wants to engage in it with me. Because I can argue the evidence, just not whats concocted by you. You defy reason, one wonders if its intentional. I hope for your sake it is.

Perhaps you should ditch the insults Michael.

I believe its time now for you to tell me that the entire UK and most of the free world agrees with you, not me...or did I steal your thunder?

Yes, I believe that I will tell you that again. Perhaps this once you could just try it - ask yourself the question “why is it that no one agrees with me”? Forget about your dislike and poor opinion of me, do you think that Jeff and Frank and Kattrup and Wickerman and c.d. and Abby and New Waterloo and Al and George and Fiver and Fishy and Lewis C and Steve Blomer (and I could name dozens more) are all incapable of debate (as you’ve said of me) do they all ‘defy reason’ because they disagree with you?

Every theory has supporters and detractors. Even the most outlandish ones. So why doesn’t it bother you that you can’t name a single person that agrees with you. Not one. Yet you still bluster and insult about how you can understand but no one else can. You should ‘reflect’ Michael.


When you can tell time, both read and comprehend, and understand what logic, reason and precedents are, then we can take this up again. But save this repetitive nonsense please.

How many debates can you lose before you will accept what everyone’s been telling you for 20 years?

More personal insults. I’m getting a little tired of this Michael. I’m making every effort to be less irritable and sarcastic when I’m posting these days and yet you seem to think that it’s ok for you keep having personal digs. Less about me and more on the topic.

[GBinOz]

I'm presenting another attempt at a timeline. All speculation and approximate of course, but here we go:

Before 12:34 - Wess & company leave, Letchford arrives, Lave goes outside (and remains there for 5 to 10 minutes), Eagle returns to the club, couple arrives at the corner of the board school, Stride & companion arrive opposite the club
12:34 - Smith sees Parcelman and Stride and is heard passing by FM.
12:35 - Parcelman and Stride cross into the yard just before FM arrives at her door. FM’s clock is running 10 minutes fast and shows 12:45.
12:45 - FM leaves door after locking up. Brown passes and sees the couple. Couple leaves. Schwartz turns into Berner St.
12:46 - BSM and Schwartz arrive at the yard and BSM pulls Stride from the yard into the street. Schwartz crosses the road and proceeds to Fairclough St. Pipeman emerges, frightens Schwartz, BSM calls out Lipski. Pipeman and Schwartz depart to the south.
12:47 - 12:52 - Someone kills Stride
12:52 - Diemshitz turns into Berner St. Club clock is running 10 minutes slow and reads 12:42.
12:53 - Diemshitz pulls into yard and horse shies.
12:53 to 12:55 - Diemshitz prods Stride with whip, climbs down from cart, lights match and sees shape of woman, goes into club searching for his wife, locates candle and returns to discover the body, alerts those in the club who emerge and light matches to observe the body.
12:55 - Club members depart the yard looking for police. Club clock reads 12:45. Diemshitz sends Kozebrodski out and follows behind, giving rise to the story of a chase down Fairclough St.
12:56 – Diemshitz and Kozebrodski arrive at Grove St. They start back to the yard and encounter Harris and Spooner. Diemshitz slows to talk to then while Kozebrodski keeps running back to the yard.
12:57 – Kozebrodski arrives back at the yard and joins Eagle to run to Commercial Road. Alternatively, Kozebrodski turns into Batty St and meets Eagle at the corner at Commercial Road after Eagle returns from initially turning west on Commercial Road.
12:58 – Diemshitz arrives back at yard with Spooner.
12:59 to 1:00 - Lamb is walking west along Commercial Road having just come from the Fixed Point where PC 426 is due to go off duty at 1:00. Lamb proceeds to the yard, followed by PC 426.
1:01 – Lamb is standing over body. He sends the PC for the doctor
1:02 - Smith arrives at the Berner St/Commercial Road corner and proceeds to yard.
1:03 - Lamb sends Eagle to Leman St PS.
1:03 - Johnson testified he was alerted by P.C. a few minutes after 1am, and alerts Blackwell, who testified that he was alerted at 1:10 (Clock syncs?).
1:06 - Johnson arrives at yard and is mistaken for Blackwell by Lamb and Diemshitz.
1:07 – Johnston opens Stride’s collar and begins to examine body. Lamb closes gates.
1:08 to 1:09 – Eagle arrives at the door of Leman St P.S. and Inspector Pinhorn is summoned to the front desk. Eagle’s story is recorded as 1:10.
1:10 - Blackwell arrives at yard, finds gates closed. Most journalists reported Blackwell as testifying that his pocket watch showed 1:16. The Times reported he testified that his pocket watch read 1:10. He finds Stride’s collar is open. Blackwell estimates Stride has been dead 20 minutes to half hour:- i.e. TOD of about 12:40 to 12:50 Police time, but stipulates death was not instantaneous, and that she would have taken some time to bleed out.

I was instructed in the use of English time periods by my grandfather, who was born in 1898. He stipulated that a “couple” meant 2, a “few” meant 3, or 4 at most, “shortly” was 1 or 2, and “presently” and “directly” meant up to 5. I believe that police times should be used above all other times as, referring to the latter, according to Chris McKay - “if you found a clock in the East End that was telling time to within 10 mins of GMT you were doing well”. (https://www.jtrforums.com/forum/the-...ime#post120389 – post #2)
I find myself unpersuaded that Lamb’s time of “about 1am” could include 1:05, and since he had just come from a Fixed Point station I think he would have had a very good idea of the time at this stage. I have also taken on board Jeff’s studied on time perception, and the possibility that persons under stress perceive time as shorter than they actually are in reality, so, when under stress, Lamb said he sent Eagle to Leman St “immediately” he may well have perceived a couple of minutes as “Immediately”. I also agree with Jeff’s conclusion that when Spooner is quoted as testifying that he arrived at the yard at about twenty five to one, he was misheard and actually said about five to one (or approximately five to one?). It should be noted that Spooner was estimating times from his previous exit from a pub at closing time, and Eagle was estimating time, having specifically stated that he didn’t look at the clock in the club. Heshburg and Kozebrodski may have looked at that clock, but neither said so. IMO that clock was probably 10 minutes or more off GMT. As for Mrs Diemshitz, Minsky and the servants, I think they were supporting Louis in his having arrived at his normal time around 1am, before his memory recall persuaded him that it was exactly 1am.

That is my current speculation as to how it all went down, which will almost certainly change in the future as it has in the past.

Cheers, George

[JeffHamm]

I'm presenting another attempt at a timeline. All speculation and approximate of course, but here we go:

Before 12:34 - Wess & company leave, Letchford arrives, Lave goes outside (and remains there for 5 to 10 minutes), Eagle returns to the club, couple arrives at the corner of the board school, Stride & companion arrive opposite the club
12:34 - Smith sees Parcelman and Stride and is heard passing by FM.
12:35 - Parcelman and Stride cross into the yard just before FM arrives at her door. FM’s clock is running 10 minutes fast and shows 12:45.
12:45 - FM leaves door after locking up. Brown passes and sees the couple. Couple leaves. Schwartz turns into Berner St.
12:46 - BSM and Schwartz arrive at the yard and BSM pulls Stride from the yard into the street. Schwartz crosses the road and proceeds to Fairclough St. Pipeman emerges, frightens Schwartz, BSM calls out Lipski. Pipeman and Schwartz depart to the south.
12:47 - 12:52 - Someone kills Stride
12:52 - Diemshitz turns into Berner St. Club clock is running 10 minutes slow and reads 12:42.
12:53 - Diemshitz pulls into yard and horse shies.
12:53 to 12:55 - Diemshitz prods Stride with whip, climbs down from cart, lights match and sees shape of woman, goes into club searching for his wife, locates candle and returns to discover the body, alerts those in the club who emerge and light matches to observe the body.
12:55 - Club members depart the yard looking for police. Club clock reads 12:45. Diemshitz sends Kozebrodski out and follows behind, giving rise to the story of a chase down Fairclough St.
12:56 – Diemshitz and Kozebrodski arrive at Grove St. They start back to the yard and encounter Harris and Spooner. Diemshitz slows to talk to then while Kozebrodski keeps running back to the yard.
12:57 – Kozebrodski arrives back at the yard and joins Eagle to run to Commercial Road. Alternatively, Kozebrodski turns into Batty St and meets Eagle at the corner at Commercial Road after Eagle returns from initially turning west on Commercial Road.
12:58 – Diemshitz arrives back at yard with Spooner.
12:59 to 1:00 - Lamb is walking west along Commercial Road having just come from the Fixed Point where PC 426 is due to go off duty at 1:00. Lamb proceeds to the yard, followed by PC 426.
1:01 – Lamb is standing over body. He sends the PC for the doctor
1:02 - Smith arrives at the Berner St/Commercial Road corner and proceeds to yard.
1:03 - Lamb sends Eagle to Leman St PS.
1:03 - Johnson testified he was alerted by P.C. a few minutes after 1am, and alerts Blackwell, who testified that he was alerted at 1:10 (Clock syncs?).
1:06 - Johnson arrives at yard and is mistaken for Blackwell by Lamb and Diemshitz.
1:07 – Johnston opens Stride’s collar and begins to examine body. Lamb closes gates.
1:08 to 1:09 – Eagle arrives at the door of Leman St P.S. and Inspector Pinhorn is summoned to the front desk. Eagle’s story is recorded as 1:10.
1:10 - Blackwell arrives at yard, finds gates closed. Most journalists reported Blackwell as testifying that his pocket watch showed 1:16. The Times reported he testified that his pocket watch read 1:10. He finds Stride’s collar is open. Blackwell estimates Stride has been dead 20 minutes to half hour:- i.e. TOD of about 12:40 to 12:50 Police time, but stipulates death was not instantaneous, and that she would have taken some time to bleed out.

I was instructed in the use of English time periods by my grandfather, who was born in 1898. He stipulated that a “couple” meant 2, a “few” meant 3, or 4 at most, “shortly” was 1 or 2, and “presently” and “directly” meant up to 5. I believe that police times should be used above all other times as, referring to the latter, according to Chris McKay - “if you found a clock in the East End that was telling time to within 10 mins of GMT you were doing well”. (https://www.jtrforums.com/forum/the-...ime#post120389 – post #2)
I find myself unpersuaded that Lamb’s time of “about 1am” could include 1:05, and since he had just come from a Fixed Point station I think he would have had a very good idea of the time at this stage. I have also taken on board Jeff’s studied on time perception, and the possibility that persons under stress perceive time as shorter than they actually are in reality, so, when under stress, Lamb said he sent Eagle to Leman St “immediately” he may well have perceived a couple of minutes as “Immediately”. I also agree with Jeff’s conclusion that when Spooner is quoted as testifying that he arrived at the yard at about twenty five to one, he was misheard and actually said about five to one (or approximately five to one?). It should be noted that Spooner was estimating times from his previous exit from a pub at closing time, and Eagle was estimating time, having specifically stated that he didn’t look at the clock in the club. Heshburg and Kozebrodski may have looked at that clock, but neither said so. IMO that clock was probably 10 minutes or more off GMT. As for Mrs Diemshitz, Minsky and the servants, I think they were supporting Louis in his having arrived at his normal time around 1am, before his memory recall persuaded him that it was exactly 1am.

That is my current speculation as to how it all went down, which will almost certainly change in the future as it has in the past.

Cheers, George

Nice George.

I wanted to mention, though that I think you may have the stress effect backwards. Under stressful situations people perceive shorter true durations to be longer (so the true duration is shorter than their estimate). So where you apply that to PC Lamb, it would be the other way, and so if he said immediately then it would be more likely that it was immediately. I think the literature is most closely related to the situation where the witnesses are estimating the duration they had to wait for PC Lamb to arrive, and so those estimates are likely to over-estimate how long it took (i.e. Spooner's 5 minute estimate is more likely to be too long of a time interval even if we don't take into account most people overestimate short durations).

That wouldn't make your timeline fundamentally flawed of course, just a point worth noting. I particularly like your suggestion of how Kozebrodski continues to run while Deimschutz may have slowed to speak with Spooner as a way of syncing up Kozebrodski with Eagle for the northern search. There is a bit of confusion around when the northern search starts relative to the southern search, and what you describe finesses that nicely and a two stage ending of the southern search could be the source of the confusion.

Good work.

- Jeff

[FrankO]

Good point Frank. And the correspondence between the estimations of PC Lamb's arrival and his estimation of how long it took for Dr. Blackwell's arrival is another indication that I think what we're putting together here is a reasonable description of these events. A "core sequence" if you will. While nobody is suggesting we have the times exactly correct, we don't need that level of precision; we're not conducting a physics experiment after all.

Adopting a similar approach, I think we can then connect to this the sequence of events that lead to Dr. Blackwell's arrival, and as you suggest, work out the range of clock differences between the police station and his watch. I have little doubt that those values would produce a range of values that are entirely unsurprising.

Having done this before but fixing the times to Dr. Blackwell's watch (which the simulations are based upon), it should be possible to tie in other events. For example, Brown hears the runners on Fairclough, and estimated a 15 minute duration from the time he picked up his supper at the shop. The return trip for the Fairclough runners takes about 2 minutes (slightly less, but I'll call it 2 here). So he would have heard them roughly 1 minute after they departed (1:01:38 in the Eagle "hurries" version), and we can then work backwards from that estimated time to place him at the corner of Berner and Fairclough, where he sees a woman he later identifies as Stride. Taking his 15 estimate as stated that would mean at 12:46:38. If we consider how well people estimate durations, though, then we have a range of durations from 6m 13s to as long as 37m 56s, with an average of 12m 33s! (Like I said, in general people are rubbish at this). So if we go with the average, that would place him there around 12:49. So if he did see Stride, she was still alive at that point. Although Fanny doesn't mention seeing Brown, Brown never enters Berner Street so she may simply have not noticed him during the brief period he exits the shop and heads east on Fairclough.

While Fanny's vigil gets described anywhere from nearly the whole time between 12:30 and 1:00 (The Daily News from October 1, 1888), that same edition of the paper also has a story where it says she went out at around 12:45 and remained there for 10 minutes. The first story names her as Mrs. Mortimer, and says she lived 4 doors from the club, the 2nd story doesn't give a name and says she lives 2 doors from the club. In The London Evening News, October 1st, she's described as living 3 doors from the club (and that edition has a repeat of the story placing her 2 doors from the club). The first version (the whole time) is repeated in a number of papers on Oct 1st, so that seems to be something sent out by Central News (so really just one story). The 2nd one (unnamed 2 doors) is also repeated a few times, so again, seems to be something sent out by Central News to multiple papers. A few papers have reworded or summarized things, but we generally have two versions, a "whole time between 12:30 and 1:00" and a 10 minute vigil in the vicinity of 12:45, that seems to start shortly after PC Smith patrols Berner Street and ends shortly before she hears the pony and cart pass (Deimschutz), after which all the commotion begins. In a few news stories her reason for going to the door in the first place was to shut the bolts, and she ended up staying there for a bit, so the 10 minute vigil seems the more reasonable, and the "nearly the whole time" version sounds a bit more of someone being a bit dramatic and engaging in a bit of hyperbole. Also, given the only person she sees while on the step is Goldstein, if she was there from 12:30 to 1:00, we have to push every other witness who arrives outside of that window, which seems unreasonable. So given she estimates her vigil was 10 minutes in the other stories, and given that estimates of 10 minutes tend to reflect real durations between 3m 48s and 27m 00s, with an average of 7m 56s (call that 8 minutes), I would start by trying to work out where in the sequence of events to place an 8 minute window for her vigil based upon the information concerning what she says happened just before it and just after it (PC Smith passes shortly before, and Deimschutz arrives shortly afterwards).

If we start by placing her vigil to span 12:45, and her stated 10 minutes is actually closer to 8, that would give us a rough guess of Fanny's vigil being something like 12:41 to 12:49 ish. And we could adjust that based upon the fine tuning of other results, such as PC Smith's patrol, and so forth. One can also then start to consider the duration of that vigil (while the average is 8 minutes, that's just a starting point and other evidence may point to it being longer or shorter than that), and so forth. Somewhere in that vigil we have Goldstein walk down Berner Street, which we can't place exactly other than it occurs during her vigil. We have some club members arrive that she doesn't see, so they appear to arrive before she went out side, and so on.

It's sort of like building a jigsaw puzzle, sometimes you put together a string of pieces, and have a rough idea where in the overall puzzle they go, and as one fills in more of the details, you eventually find the right placement.

To be honest, when I was putting together the simulation, I was actually surprised at how things actually fit pretty well.

I totally agree with you, Jeff and it would be very good and interesting idea to try and tie in other events/witnesses.

To that effect, William Marshall might help. Regarding the one o’clock screams of ‘Murder’, he corroborates what Brown heard & when: “I went in about 12 o'clock and heard nothing more until I heard "Murder" being called in the street. It had then just gone 1 o'clock.”

And, it would also be good to see how & where Smith could be connected. It’s clear that he arrived at the top of Berner Street when PC 426H was (arriving or waiting) at Blackwell’s residence when that happened, as he didn’t hear or see anything of the running & screaming by Eagle & Kozebrodski and PC 426H going for the doctor thereafter. Which would put his arrival at that point at least a minute or 2 after Lamb arriving in the yard.

Cheers,
Frank

[JeffHamm]

Hi Jeff,

So Im clear, I am suggesting that Louis could not have arrived as late as 1am as he claimed, so I see the only reasonable answer as to what time he did arrive had to be when Fanny was not at her door during that last half hour. She says if someone had come from that yard before 1am she would have seen them, and she says that she saw Black Bag Man around 12:55-56 scurry past the gates after looking into the passageway on his way past. She says she went back into the house at around 1. My point on the "before" 1am is to illustrate that IF Louis had been arriving at 1am as he said then Fanny would have been at her door to see him steer his cart and horse up to the gates.

So, when is Fanny not at her door, and how frequent are the pops indoors? We dont know, but we do know that she did not see Louis, cart and horse arriving when she was at her door. Which for me is likely almost all of the last 10 minutes of that hour.

So Louis arrived earlier, not later, and wouldnt you know that we have three witnesses, Issac Kozebrodksi, (unsure of his given name at this moment)-Heschberg, and Mr Spooner suggest that they saw Louis and the body around 12:40. So, again as I see this, its likely Fanny was indoors at around that time.

She does hear a cart and horse pass by while indoors, and she hears bootsteps, but neither sounds are automatically designated as originating from the same sources she estimates they might have come from. She didnt "see" a policeman, nor did she "see" a cart and horse. But since we are on her senses, she also didnt "hear" anything on the street at the time Israel said he was there and saw activity. So.....she can hear bootsteps while inside, but she cant hear 3 mens bootsteps on cobbles and a woman exclaim out loud, and a shout from a surly man at someone? Very selective hearing? Not likely.

When it comes to Fanny, what she did see is greater in value than what she did not, but both perspectives are informative.

Hi Michael,

While identifying footsteps as being a police officer could be a mistake, hearing a pony and cart means a pony and cart went by her house at the time Deimschutz says he went by with his pony and cart. And if Fanny is at her door from 12:30 to 1:00, only to go inside for the time that Deimshutz arrives when you say she did, why did she not hear his pony and cart if she could hear the coicidental pony and cart that goes by at the time Deimshutz said he went by?

And since you are saying the footsteps might not have been PC Smith, then why couldn't they be either B.S. or Schwartz, as they pass by her house? The whole Schwartz series of events would only require about 2 minutes, so if Fanny can be argued to have popped in to miss Deimschutz's arrival, and she failed to hear him due to some circumstance of where she was in the house at that time, why couldn't the Schwartz event also occur during a similar break in her vigil, and also not be heard for the same reason she doesn't hear Deimschutz's pony and cart. Leaving her only to hear only the proposed 2nd pony and cart.

Also, since the men in the club were all around the body shortly after Deimschutz's arrival, why does Fanny not see or hear any of that activity while she is out on her stoop until just before 1?

Given she says she hears a pony and cart at the time Deimschutz says he passed down the street in his pony and cart, it seems to me that unless we find evidence there actually was a 2nd pony and cart, Fanny appears to be corroborating Deimschutz's testimony. I accept that the footsteps she hears, and attributes to a policeman, could be argued to be someone other than a policeman. If they were from someone other than a policeman though, who might that have been? If Fanny went to her stoop shortly after 12:45, was there until shortly before 1:00 (there are reports where she says she was on her stoop for 10 minutes), then shortly after she goes inside and hears a pony and cart corresponds to Deimschutz's arrival at 1:00, and as many place the actual murder somewhere around 12:45, those footsteps may have been either B.S. and/or Schwartz. Not hearing the scuffle down the street, Stride's calls, and the shout of Lipski would be because the scuffle itself wouldn't make a lot of noise, it is also recorded that Stride didn't call out loudly, and the shout of Lipski was yelled in a direction away from her house, and probably wasn't shouted at the top of his lungs either, so it's not a scream or anything. Pipeman's footsteps wouldn't be heard as he's all the way down at the corner near Fairclough and he heads away from Fanny's residence.

I just think that if we're going to allow for Fanny to not see or hear Deimschutz's pony and cart because she "popped inside for a moment", then the entire Schwartz event, which would last about as along and not be as loud as a pony and cart, can also be explained the very same way. And the other problem is that now we have to introduce another pony and cart for her to hear that nobody else is aware of and it passes at the very time Deimschutz says he passed by.

- Jeff

[FrankO]

12:56 – Diemshitz and Kozebrodski arrive at Grove St. They start back to the yard and encounter Harris and Spooner. Diemshitz slows to talk to then while Kozebrodski keeps running back to the yard.
12:57 – Kozebrodski arrives back at the yard and joins Eagle to run to Commercial Road. Alternatively, Kozebrodski turns into Batty St and meets Eagle at the corner at Commercial Road after Eagle returns from initially turning west on Commercial Road.

Hi George,

This is how I also see it: that Diemshutz stopped to speak to Spooner, while Kozebrodski continued to the yard, where he either went north together with Eagle or joined him so that they would approach Lamb together. For that reason I find the alternative much less convincing.

12:59 to 1:00 - Lamb is walking west along Commercial Road having just come from the Fixed Point where PC 426 is due to go off duty at 1:00. Lamb proceeds to the yard, followed by PC 426.

I think it was just after one o’clock rather than before, as Lamb is also quoted as having said this:

“The Coroner. - When you were called in what direction were you going?
Witness. - I was coming towards Berner-street. Police-constable Smith is on the Berner-street beat. There is a constable on fixed-point duty at the corner of Grove-street, Commercial-road, and he came off duty at one a.m. The man on the beat then has to do his duty.”

And:

“By Detective Inspector Reid: I passed the top of the street about six or seven minutes before I was called. Police Constable Smith was on the Berner street beat.
By the coroner: He was not the man who went to the yard with me. A policeman was on "fixed" duty at Grove street, near Berner street; but he was relieved at one o'clock and the "fixed" duty is not taken up again till nine o'clock the next morning.”

1:01 – Lamb is standing over body. He sends the PC for the doctor

1:02 - Smith arrives at the Berner St/Commercial Road corner and proceeds to yard.
1:03 - Lamb sends Eagle to Leman St PS.

Minor point, as I wrote in my post above to Jeff: I think Smith would have arrived at the top of Berner Street after PC 426 H had passed there and turned right to go for the doctor’s residence, unless PC426 H went for the doctor through Hampshire Court or even Fairclough Street and then up Batty Street. And I think Lamb would have sent Eagle directly after having sent PC 426 H for the doctor’s.

All the best,
Frank

[JeffHamm]

I totally agree with you, Jeff and it would be very good and interesting idea to try and tie in other events/witnesses.

To that effect, William Marshall might help. Regarding the one o’clock screams of ‘Murder’, he corroborates what Brown heard & when: “I went in about 12 o'clock and heard nothing more until I heard "Murder" being called in the street. It had then just gone 1 o'clock.”

And, it would also be good to see how & where Smith could be connected. It’s clear that he arrived at the top of Berner Street when PC 426H was (arriving or waiting) at Blackwell’s residence when that happened, as he didn’t hear or see anything of the running & screaming by Eagle & Kozebrodski and PC 426H going for the doctor thereafter. Which would put his arrival at that point at least a minute or 2 after Lamb arriving in the yard.

Cheers,
Frank

Hi Frank,

I had overlooked Marshall, but yes, he too bolsters the time of the police search to be shortly after 1.

As I recall, PC Smith's stated times seem likely to be a bit out of sync with everyone else. He's a bit harder to pin down exactly. I think he says something like at 1 he was going to Berner Street (he doesn't say he was at Berner, but going to it). When I was putting together the simulations, I made the assumption he was to the north west end of his beat (Gower's Walk or something like that?) at 1 and so now started heading towards Berner Street. It's about 525 feet to the top of Berner Street, which would require around 2m 42s minutes to patrol (at 2.2mph; I use that speed by calculating it from the rest of his beat information, so working out his beat length and how long he says it takes him to complete it, etc). That would place him at the top of Berner Street at 1:02:42 by his estimation. Which wouldn't require his "clock" to be all that out of sync with the others. In the "Eagle Hurries" version, for example, PC Lamb's arrival is estimated to be around 1:05:50, and if PC Smith arrives within the next minute, then PC Smith and the Leman street police clock are only out of sync by 3 or 4 minutes, which is well within an acceptable range.

And of course, if PC Smith was still heading towards Gower's Walk at 1, then he arrives at Berner Street later, making the mis-alignment even less.

PC Smith is a bit tricky to work with although we can work out when in the sequence he arrived at least, as his statements regarding where he was at a given time are generally a big vague (i.e. he's somewhere in Berner Street at something like 12:30 to 12:35 - but it is not really clear where in Berner Street he is, or of he means it required him 5 minutes to cover both sides of Berner Street, probably including Sander Street, which could be the case. That would have him patrolling at 2.7 mph which in turn means his entire beat should take much less time than he says it does; or that there are portions of his beat that involve a lot more stopping and checking of things.

If we go with that, then we know Fanny is not on her door step between 12:30 and 12:35 as she doesn't say she sees PC Smith, but thinks she hears him go by (probably as he heads south on her side of the street). PC Smith sees Stride with someone. By the time Fanny comes out, Stride and the fellow are gone - perhaps the passing of the police officer put the fellow off and he left towards Fairclough and Stride followed him for a bit but was unable to regain his interest? (or maybe she did). That means that the couple Brown later sees, where he thinks it was Stride, could be Stride and the fellow PC Smith saw. I know the descriptions of the men don't match well, but eye witness descriptions can be quite far off sometimes, so I wouldn't reject the idea outright based on that alone, but it is important to recognize that the descriptions don't match.

So if Fanny comes out at some time not long after PC Smith has passed by (say 5 minutes later as she) then he probably passes her door around 12:33, and he exits Berner Street to the North around 12:35 during which Stride has moved to Fairclough, and Fanny emerges at 12:38ish, is on her stoop for 10 minutes, so goes back inside at 12:48ish, and there's roughly 12 minutes in which the Schwartz event could take place before she hears Deimschutz pass by at 1 (in the hurries version I think Diemschutz arrives at 12:59:48, so technically the calculated gap would be a bit smaller, as in 11m 48s). I think she estimated that interval to be 4 minutes, and the 95% confidence range of "true intervals" that get called 4 minutes by people goes from 1m 15s to 12m 31s, with an average of 2m 49s. So while the above interval is on the long side for a 4 minutes estimate, it isn't unacceptably long. When I worked out the values for the simulations, it came to around 11m 24s. In the simulation, I think I have Fanny going outside a bit later as I converted her estimated time on the porch of 10 minutes to the average true duration for 10 minute estimates (which is 7m 56s).

An alternative idea is that the footsteps Fanny hears are not actually PC Smith, who passed earlier, but rather those of either B.S. or Schwartz at around 12:45ish. So the Schwartz event is over and done with before Fanny goes out on her stoop (the whole Schwartz event would only require about 2 minutes). Fanny doesn't hear any of it because she's busy turning down the house and getting ready to retire for the night. So when she goes outside (around 12:49 ish), Stride is already dead in the ally, and Goldstein, when he walks by, sees "something" in the ally but doesn't recognize what it is (Stride's body) - Fanny mentions he glanced at the club and hurried on down the street. Fanny doesn't notice anything else, because everything to notice has already happened. She estimates she was on her stoop for 10 minutes, which on average, represents a true duration of 7m 56s (call it 8 minutes for good measure), so she goes back inside around 12:57ish. 2 minutes 48 seconds later she hears Deimschutz's Pony and cart go by - ha ha, which is pretty much bang on the average for a 4 minute estimation! Honest, I didn't calculate that ahead of time, it just worked out that way.

In some ways, the "alternative" works better as it places the murder closer to 12:45, which is generally when people think it occurred, but it does mean that Fanny's footsteps were not those of a police officer, which I believe were distinctive at the time. Also, it may be that I'm overlooking something that makes it unworkable (I'm sort of building it on the fly as I type this after all).

On the other hand, the first version, placing the murder after Fanny's vigil, does work although the time between her going inside and hearing Deimschutz arrive is on the long side - but in a way that might be good as it gives a fairly wide window into which a 2 minute event has to fit.

I'm starting to think, though, that there might be two reasonable models, one that places the Schwartz event just prior to Fanny's vigil, and one that places it after her vigil. I think the prior version would have to conclude that B.S. is Stride's killer. The post-vigil version, however, probably has enough time to include the arrival of someone after B.S. who then goes on to kill Stride if one favours that idea.

- Jeff

[FrankO]

Hi Jeff,

I agree with your conclusion that there might be two reasonable models to work with. And I have some observations reading through your post that might assist...

As I recall, PC Smith's stated times seem likely to be a bit out of sync with everyone else. He's a bit harder to pin down exactly. I think he says something like at 1 he was going to Berner Street (he doesn't say he was at Berner, but going to it).

This is perhaps the clearest of what Smith stated:
“I was in Berner-street about half-past twelve or twenty-five minutes to one o'clock, and having gone round my beat, was at the Commercial-road corner of Berner-street again at one o'clock. I was not called. I saw a crowd outside the gates of No. 40, Berner-street. I heard no cries of "Police.".” (Daily Telegraph of 6 October)

To me this reads as if he was saying that he reached the top of Berner Street again at one o’clock after having gone almost completely round his beat and that, from there, he could see a crowd of people outside outside the gates of Dutfield’s Yard.

PC Smith is a bit tricky to work with although we can work out when in the sequence he arrived at least, as his statements regarding where he was at a given time are generally a big vague (i.e. he's somewhere in Berner Street at something like 12:30 to 12:35 - but it is not really clear where in Berner Street he is, or of he means it required him 5 minutes to cover both sides of Berner Street, probably including Sander Street, which could be the case.

I'm with you on Smith's testimony being tricky. These snippets help somewhat in determining where Smith was when he saw Stride & companion:

"Was she on the pavement? - Yes, a few yards up Berner-street on the opposite side to where she was found.”

“When you saw them talking, which way did you go? - Straight up Berner-street into the Commercial-road. In the centre of Berner-street were some courts which led into Backchurch-lane.”
Both from the Times of 6 October.

So, it seems that the couple Smith saw, was then a little south of Hampshire Court on the east side of Berner Street and Batty’s Gardens on the west side of it. And that Smith was on the west side when he went back up the street, as the above quote seems to say that he was going to go into those courts that led into Backchurch Lane.

Indeed, up & down Berner Street including Sander Street would amount to 380 m/1246 feet. Walked at a speed of 4.56 km or 2.8 miles per hour, it would take about 5 minutes to cover it like that. So, what you suggest as an alternative, would fit.

I think the bigger picture is just that he stated that it took him 25 to 30 minutes to go round his beat and that, at about 1 o’clock on his clock, he’d almost finished the round during which he’d seen Stride & companion. So, perhaps it was closer to 25 minutes past when he saw the couple rather than 30 minutes.

That would have him patrolling at 2.7 mph which in turn means his entire beat should take much less time than he says it does; or that there are portions of his beat that involve a lot more stopping and checking of things.

I don’t know if that’s true, Jeff. I’ve measured Smith’s entire beat (as I’ve understood it to be), including side streets and alleys like Sander Street and Hampshire Court as 2000 m/2187 yards. To cover that distance in 27.5 minutes, one has to walk at a speed of 2.7 mph(!).

If we go with that, then we know Fanny is not on her door step between 12:30 and 12:35 as she doesn't say she sees PC Smith, but thinks she hears him go by (probably as he heads south on her side of the street). PC Smith sees Stride with someone. By the time Fanny comes out, Stride and the fellow are gone - perhaps the passing of the police officer put the fellow off and he left towards Fairclough and Stride followed him for a bit but was unable to regain his interest? (or maybe she did). That means that the couple Brown later sees, where he thinks it was Stride, could be Stride and the fellow PC Smith saw. I know the descriptions of the men don't match well, but eye witness descriptions can be quite far off sometimes, so I wouldn't reject the idea outright based on that alone, but it is important to recognize that the descriptions don't match.

If Fanny did actually hear Smith pass her house, then it would have to have been when he was going up Berner Street, in the direction of Commercial Road. If he did not check the side streets and courts on that occasion, she could have come to her door about 1.5 minutes after hearing the measured beat of his footsteps without seeing Smith. If he did check those alleys and courts on that occasion, then she could have come to her doorstep some 5 minutes later, or else he would still have been in the street.

If he was passing her house in the direction of Faiclough Street when she heard him and would have gone outside immediately after hearing him, she would have seen him go up Berner Street again, having turned around at Fairclough Street.

So if Fanny comes out at some time not long after PC Smith has passed by (say 5 minutes later as she) then he probably passes her door around 12:33, and he exits Berner Street to the North around 12:35 during which Stride has moved to Fairclough, and Fanny emerges at 12:38ish, is on her stoop for 10 minutes, so goes back inside at 12:48ish, and there's roughly 12 minutes in which the Schwartz event could take place before she hears Deimschutz pass by at 1 (in the hurries version I think Diemschutz arrives at 12:59:48, so technically the calculated gap would be a bit smaller, as in 11m 48s). I think she estimated that interval to be 4 minutes, and the 95% confidence range of "true intervals" that get called 4 minutes by people goes from 1m 15s to 12m 31s, with an average of 2m 49s. So while the above interval is on the long side for a 4 minutes estimate, it isn't unacceptably long. When I worked out the values for the simulations, it came to around 11m 24s. In the simulation, I think I have Fanny going outside a bit later as I converted her estimated time on the porch of 10 minutes to the average true duration for 10 minute estimates (which is 7m 56s).

I’m not so sure about the clock times you give here (12:33, 12:38ish, etc.), because Smith has to arrive at the top of Berner Street some short time after Lamb has arrived in the yard, but maybe that’s not so important for now. What you suggest may fit as far as the durations go.

An alternative idea is that the footsteps Fanny hears are not actually PC Smith, who passed earlier, but rather those of either B.S. or Schwartz at around 12:45ish. So the Schwartz event is over and done with before Fanny goes out on her stoop (the whole Schwartz event would only require about 2 minutes). Fanny doesn't hear any of it because she's busy turning down the house and getting ready to retire for the night. So when she goes outside (around 12:49 ish), Stride is already dead in the ally, and Goldstein, when he walks by, sees "something" in the ally but doesn't recognize what it is (Stride's body) - Fanny mentions he glanced at the club and hurried on down the street. Fanny doesn't notice anything else, because everything to notice has already happened. She estimates she was on her stoop for 10 minutes, which on average, represents a true duration of 7m 56s (call it 8 minutes for good measure), so she goes back inside around 12:57ish. 2 minutes 48 seconds later she hears Deimschutz's Pony and cart go by - ha ha, which is pretty much bang on the average for a 4 minute estimation! Honest, I didn't calculate that ahead of time, it just worked out that way.

Sounds like a reasonable alternative, Jeff.

Cheers,
Frank

[Herlock Sholmes]

When Smith returned at 1.00 he said that he saw some men by the gates but wasn’t called. So could he have gone along Berner Street and then up and down Sander Street before getting to the club thus adding a few minutes?

[FrankO]

When Smith returned at 1.00 he said that he saw some men by the gates but wasn’t called. So could he have gone along Berner Street and then up and down Sander Street before getting to the club thus adding a few minutes?

Of course, he could have, Mike, but I don't think he did. The crowd of people would seem a good indicator that something had happened, so it doesn't make much sense, if any,at all if he would not directly go where he saw those people.

Cheers,
Frank

[Herlock Sholmes]

Of course, he could have, Mike, but I don't think he did. The crowd of people would seem a good indicator that something had happened, so it doesn't make much sense, if any,at all if he would not directly go where he saw those people.

Cheers,
Frank

Unless he just thought that it was a group of guys chatting before they went their separate ways. It’s certainly not a point I’ll be pushing hard though Frank.