Do to an administrative error, the values in the above post 585 are not, in fact, based entirely on Frank's measurements, but upon some sort of Frankenstein's Monster created from his and the left over corpse of some of my own. So, 8th time lucky as they say:

Eagle Walks to the Police Station (3.1 mph)

Time Event

1:10:30 Eagle Arrives at Leman Street Police Station

1:04:18 Eagle departs to Station/PC Lamb's Arrival

1:03:07 PC Lamb Alerted

1:01:55 Eagle departs to find PC Lamb/Fairclough runners return/Spooner's arrival

1:00:07 Fairclough Run Starts

12:58:17 Diemschutz Arrival

Eagle “Hurries” to the Police Station (4.11 mph – the speed equal to running ½ and walking 1/2)

Time Event

1:10:30 Eagle Arrives at Leman Street Police Station

1:05:50 Eagle departs to Station/PC Lamb's Arrival

1:04:38 PC Lamb Alerted

1:03:26 Eagle departs to find PC Lamb/Fairclough runners return/Spooner's arrival

1:01:38 Fairclough Run Starts

12:59:48 Diemschutz Arrival

Eagle Runs to the Police Station (6.1 mph)

Time Event

1:10:30 Eagle Arrives at Leman Street Police Station

1:07:21 Eagle departs to Station/PC Lamb's Arrival

1:06:09 PC Lamb Alerted

1:04:58 Eagle departs to find PC Lamb/Fairclough runners return/Spooner's arrival

1:03:09 Fairclough Run Starts

1:01:19 Diemschutz Arrival

With regards to Diemschutz saying he arrived at precisely 1:00, any of those times on the Leman Street Police Station clock are well within the range that one might expect given we're dealing with 2 different clocks given the two extreme differences are under 2 minutes of "clock desync".

The time at which PC Lamb gets alerted is, I think, in all cases a reasonable time for him to describe as "around 1:00 o'clock", given to my knowledge he did not have a watch on him to consult, and so therefore is estimating the time.

Finally, the range of true durations that someone reports as being 5 minutes is from 1m 38s to 15m 6s, with an average true duration of 3m 37s. The interval between Spooner's arrival and PC Lamb's arrival is well inside this range, at 2m 23s (or 2m 24s in the "hurries" condition; the 1 second difference due to rounding during the calculations), and is below the mean value, which places it towards the median (I don't have the median value though).

Also, due to a number of factors that influence our perception of temporal durations, there a lots of reasons to expect that the wait for the arrival of the police to seem longer than it actually was.

In short, by reconstructing time by locking to one clock that we have some reason to believe is a reliable time stamp of a known event (the 1:10 arrival of Eagle at the police station), and then estimating the time of other stated events based upon journey times (measured distances, average moving speeds, etc) and George's reconstruction of a critical event, we find that the times that emerge correspond well with the statements made by the witnesses. So well, that I think we can be confident that there is nothing suspicious about these details.

If you accept that, and given we know that Fanny did not see Deimschutz in his pony cart (but appears to have heard him pass), then we know that when it comes to placing Fanny in the timeline, she must be inside before Deimschutz enters Berner Street. I believe I found some information on Pony carts, and they tend to travel somewhere around 4 mph (so would require about 1m 2s to get to the gates). So we could work backwards from Deimschutz's arrival time to find the latest point at which Fanny goes inside, which would be 12:58:45 (based upon the Eagle "Hurries" version). We know, however, she does indicate she was inside for a while before hearing the Pony cart go by, so she seems to have gone inside before that. The goal now, of course, is to see if we can work out, if possible, when that point in time was.

- Jeff

Eagle Walks to the Police Station (3.1 mph)

Time Event

1:10:30 Eagle Arrives at Leman Street Police Station

1:04:18 Eagle departs to Station/PC Lamb's Arrival

1:03:07 PC Lamb Alerted

1:01:55 Eagle departs to find PC Lamb/Fairclough runners return/Spooner's arrival

1:00:07 Fairclough Run Starts

12:58:17 Diemschutz Arrival

Eagle “Hurries” to the Police Station (4.11 mph – the speed equal to running ½ and walking 1/2)

Time Event

1:10:30 Eagle Arrives at Leman Street Police Station

1:05:50 Eagle departs to Station/PC Lamb's Arrival

1:04:38 PC Lamb Alerted

1:03:26 Eagle departs to find PC Lamb/Fairclough runners return/Spooner's arrival

1:01:38 Fairclough Run Starts

12:59:48 Diemschutz Arrival

Eagle Runs to the Police Station (6.1 mph)

Time Event

1:10:30 Eagle Arrives at Leman Street Police Station

1:07:21 Eagle departs to Station/PC Lamb's Arrival

1:06:09 PC Lamb Alerted

1:04:58 Eagle departs to find PC Lamb/Fairclough runners return/Spooner's arrival

1:03:09 Fairclough Run Starts

1:01:19 Diemschutz Arrival

With regards to Diemschutz saying he arrived at precisely 1:00, any of those times on the Leman Street Police Station clock are well within the range that one might expect given we're dealing with 2 different clocks given the two extreme differences are under 2 minutes of "clock desync".

The time at which PC Lamb gets alerted is, I think, in all cases a reasonable time for him to describe as "around 1:00 o'clock", given to my knowledge he did not have a watch on him to consult, and so therefore is estimating the time.

Finally, the range of true durations that someone reports as being 5 minutes is from 1m 38s to 15m 6s, with an average true duration of 3m 37s. The interval between Spooner's arrival and PC Lamb's arrival is well inside this range, at 2m 23s (or 2m 24s in the "hurries" condition; the 1 second difference due to rounding during the calculations), and is below the mean value, which places it towards the median (I don't have the median value though).

Also, due to a number of factors that influence our perception of temporal durations, there a lots of reasons to expect that the wait for the arrival of the police to seem longer than it actually was.

In short, by reconstructing time by locking to one clock that we have some reason to believe is a reliable time stamp of a known event (the 1:10 arrival of Eagle at the police station), and then estimating the time of other stated events based upon journey times (measured distances, average moving speeds, etc) and George's reconstruction of a critical event, we find that the times that emerge correspond well with the statements made by the witnesses. So well, that I think we can be confident that there is nothing suspicious about these details.

If you accept that, and given we know that Fanny did not see Deimschutz in his pony cart (but appears to have heard him pass), then we know that when it comes to placing Fanny in the timeline, she must be inside before Deimschutz enters Berner Street. I believe I found some information on Pony carts, and they tend to travel somewhere around 4 mph (so would require about 1m 2s to get to the gates). So we could work backwards from Deimschutz's arrival time to find the latest point at which Fanny goes inside, which would be 12:58:45 (based upon the Eagle "Hurries" version). We know, however, she does indicate she was inside for a while before hearing the Pony cart go by, so she seems to have gone inside before that. The goal now, of course, is to see if we can work out, if possible, when that point in time was.

- Jeff

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