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  • Originally posted by JeffHamm View Post
    Hmmm,

    One thing that just occurred to me. It is obvious the Schwartz event cannot occur while PC Smith is patrolling Berner Street. So for the model that places the Schwartz event prior to Fanny's vigil, the start of her vigil would have be more than 2 minutes after PC Smith exits Berner Street.

    The estimation for the time of PC Smith passing Fanny's is around 12:42:27, and that's about 3m 3 seconds into his patrol of the street, which based upon 2.7 mph, would require about 5 minutes (as I'm including Sander Street), so that would suggest he exits around 12:44:27, making the minimum time for Schwartz and Pipeman to have left the scene be around 12:46:27. But if we think B.S. kills Stride, we have to allow for B.S. to commit the murder and leave as well, which I'll just say is another minute, meaning Fanny doesn't emerge until closer to 12:47:27. Using the 8 minutes as her vigil time (as the average time for a 10 minute duration estimation), means she goes in at 12:55:27, and Deimschutz's arrival at 12:59:48 is pretty much her 4 minute delay estimation. Given she's likely to have overestimated the interval, then shifting her vigil start time a bit later would shrink that interval.

    So, the estimations are not ruling out a pre-vigil Schwartz event, though the window for it is probably smaller than a post-vigil murder. As such, of the two models, the post-vigil is probably the safer bet, but neither can be ruled out.

    I know it's looking like everything has to occur "just so", but that is the nature of more and more detailed models. The more calculations we conduct, none of which individually can be said to be too far off the mark, then the more time gets accounted for. Ideally, of course, one is trying to fill in the details for all of the time in question, but if one can do that, then of course it will look like "it had to have happened just so" - but that's sort of the idea - to work out what happened and when?

    Also, even if we get a model of the events that appear to be "just so", we also have to remind ourselves that all of these times, and time windows, are not intended as exact fixed values, but the "windows" of the events can shrink and expand a bit, but where one shrinks another is likely to expand. The idea is to see if we can produce a sort of "prototype" model, where variations on it more or less adhere to the model times, and the actual truth is probably one of those variations, but our prototype is a good enough representation that we're not making any major errors.

    There are some things I don't think we can work out very precisely. Lave's time in the yard, for example. We know it is probably before Fanny's vigil, but there is too little information to really pin-point it by trying to tie it into other events. It's probably also prior to PC Smith's patrol, so the lack of Stride's body being in the ally at that time doesn't preclude a pre-vigil murder/Schwartz event.

    The young couple Fanny sees, and who may have been at the location after Stride was found murdered, would have to have arrived after the Schwartz event if it occurred pre-vigil, and it seems hard to work them in if the Schwartz event is post-vigil, so their presence may argue for a pre-vigil time, changing the assessment as to which model may fit better.

    Also, a pre-vigil Schwartz event would fit better with Schwartz's police statement that the events occurred around 12:45, although post-vigil isn't out of the question either (just means Schwartz's estimation of the time was off, at least when compared to the Leman Street Police Station clock, which he doesn't have access to).

    Anyway, I'm not really sure I have a strong opinion one way or the other at the moment, and I'm just sort of pondering things here. Given the oversights I've made in some of the calculations (and sorry for the number of corrections I've had to post. I often do these things when I have a few minutes to spare, and given the complications we're dealing with, I really should have more than a few minutes to ensure that I'm not making a data entry error), I think I'm going to have another go at my workbook. I've got a few ideas as to how to make it a bit more versatile, while at the same time making it a bit more robust against "user error" (i.e. I need to Jeff-proof it).

    - Jeff


    That's why the entire Schwartz incident was fiction, including BS man and Pipeman and the entire Anti Semitic rhetoric

    Schwartz was paid to give a false statement to detract from the truth.

    But for a lie to work and be convincing, you have to embed it with a foundation of truth.


    ​​​​​​I would imagine the kill time of Stride was at 12.45am and she lay in the dark for up to 15 minutes before she was found.


    By bringing Smiths time forward, it makes everyone else's timing in the aftermath of the finding of the body fit.

    But by doing so it exposes Schwartz and the "assault," for what it is...fake news


    ​​​​​​But why?

    Well why was Packer targeted by Le Grand?


    There's more at play here than people realize and Stride's murder was set up to oppose the Jews and try and pin the blame on them and the club
    Hence why the GSG graffiti which was written to be ironic.

    Stride as lured to her death by someone she thought she could trust.

    Someone who disliked Jews, Socialists and anarchists...

    If only there was someone who fits that profile...


    RD

    "Great minds, don't think alike"

    Comment


    • Originally posted by JeffHamm View Post
      Don't forget, when in a timeline I say PC Lamb is contacted at say 1:06, that time is Leman Street Police Station time, not the time PC Lamb's beat clock, which is likely to read something different from the LSPS. So if the two clocks differ by 3 minutes, PC Lamb would have the time at 1:03 when the Leman Street Police Station reads 1:06.

      - Jeff
      Hi Jeff,

      While you are aware of the regard in which I hold your hypotheses, I find myself unable to agree in this regard.

      The police station clocks were regulated to GMT by telegraph, so their times can be carved in stone, as can, I believe, the times of Reid and Phillips . However, I don't discount a reporter error in the Eagle at LSPS at 1:10. I am aware of only the single report - are you aware of any corroborating publications? From the answers provided by Monty, it is clear to me that there is a high probability that the Section Sergeant established local clock time corrections for GMT, and they would be likely to be near fixed point stations. YMMV. This, combined with the monotonous routine of the beat would, IMO, provide for an GMT time accuracy far superior to that of a doctor's pocket watch, particularly when that pocket watch appears to be out of sync with the Practice clock by about 6 minutes. I have a far less regard for civilian time guesstimates such as provided by Mortimer, Eagle, Lave and Brown as their estimates are based on intervals from the observation of a clock of unknown synchronisation. Once again, JMO.

      Just to restate, I prefer to accept the police testimony of Lamb and Smith over the consideration of possible times computed from largely conflicting press reports. I do acknowledge that the beat PCs may have been 2-3 minutes out if they were at the end of their beat before they could reference their benchmark clock, I find 6-7 minutes difficult to accept.

      Best regards, George
      It's sad that governments are chiefed by the double tongues. There is iron in your words of death for all Comanche to see, and so there is iron in your words of life. It shall be life. - Ten Bears

      All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain. - Bladerunner

      ​Disagreeing doesn't have to be disagreeable - Jeff Hamm

      Comment


      • Originally posted by The Rookie Detective View Post

        Has anyone ever considered whether PC Smith didn't arrive at 12.35am, but in fact arrived at 12.43am, invented Parcelman and cut Stride's throat himself?
        Not that I can think of, but given the number of theories out there I can't say it hasn't been suggested before with 100% certainty. I would suggest, however, that even if it had been, it's clearly not gained any traction.
        He is never seen by any of the witnesses on his regular western approach along Faircloth Street, because based on his timings he should have walked past Stride AGAIN as he walked WEST past the junction with the murder site to the north of his location.
        I don't think so. While I've not gone and done another calculation as to what time it would be when he went west past the south end of Berner Street, it would be a few minutes before the run starts (enough time for him to have turned the corner onto Back Church Lane and get around 30 feet up, or perhaps further if he patrols Sander Street on this leg of his beat. Either way, Stride is probably already dead in the ally when he goes by the south end of Berner Street.
        So where was he between claiming to see Stride at 12.35am and his eventual arrival around 1.07am?
        On his beat.
        Judging by the route, he would have passed west towards Backchurch Lane some time between 12.50-12.55am...but he didn't.
        Ok,so now I have gone and done the measurements and calculations.

        By my calculations, depending upon whether or not he patrols Sander Street when going up Back Church Lane, he would be at the south end of Berner Street at 12:59:40 if he didn't, or 12:57:57 if he did. So you're correct, he probably didn't pass there at 12:50-12:55, but later than that by a few minutes.
        Smith should have been seen by either Spooner, Brown, the courting couple or Mortimer IF he arrived at 12.35am on his previous pass by the murder site.
        Why would Brown have seen him? Brown was home for 15 minutes (by his estimation) when the runners went by his house, so got his supper at roughly 12:46 and would be home in about a minute at a walking pace. So if we back PC Smith up 12 minutes from the south of Berner Street, we would expect to find him heading north on his return leg of patrolling Batty Street. At no point would Brown have seen him.

        And how do we know the courting couple didn't see PC Smith? They were never identified, so what, and who, they saw is unknown, but that doesn't mean they didn't see him. We just don't know what or who they recall seeing.
        What if Mortimer heard Smith passing by her door just 30 seconds AFTER he had just cut there throat?
        Then Mortimer would have heard Stride's killer leaving the scene. But as there is nothing to suggest this happened, it is the same as saying "What if Deimschutz killed her upon his arrival", then she heard Stride's killer arriving in his pony and cart! It's just taking a random person from the night and guessing they could be the killer. That approach is rarely successful.
        Either way, Smith must have been slacking off somewhere, because he is never witnessed anywhere other than Berner Street and unless he was a on fixed point duty, that doesn't make sense.
        We know he was on a beat. I can't think of any PC, in any of the cases, that can be placed at any point on their beat other than at the time they become involved at the crime scene (other than by their own testimony). Hmmm, there might be one in the Nichols case with regards to their cape being left at the horse slaughterers. I think it comes up in terms of questioning whether or not he was slacking off. Nothing like that comes up with PC Smith, and other than that one, I can't see how PC Smith not being spotted on his beat at other times is any different from any other PC. In fact, Fanny's claim to have heard him actually makes him one of the very few PCs who could be said to have their location verified at a time other than the direct crime scene events.
        So, he kills her and then walks north past Mortimers house at 12.45am just moments before Mortimer hears him pass by her door.
        ​​​​​​Smith then cuts west down Sanders St so that he is out of view of Mortimer. He then waits in Sanders St, checks himself over, disposes of the knife and waits until he hears the shouts of "police!"
        He then walks through into backchurch lane and rejoins his route and arrives at the scene at 1.07am
        But since that is based upon some claims which do not hold up, the conclusion, I'm afraid has to be seen as "unsupported".
        Schwartz is then an actor hired to invent Bs Man and the assault...which nobody else saw or heard.
        In this "unsupported" version, sure. But as I say, I don't think this is going to hold any water.
        Lave has gone by 12.40am
        Eagle has gone by 12.42am
        Mortimer is at her door between 12.45-12.55am
        Parcelman, BS man, Pipeman don't exist
        Letchford is at her door at 12.50am
        Brown sees the courting couple

        ​​​​​​Just another random hypothesis

        Haha!

        RD
        ​​​​​​
        I know you like to toss out ideas, which is fine. But you know, it's not that hard to try and test them yourself.

        Have a play at the map resources here

        You can choose various overlays, OS 1:1,056-1:2,640 Towns, 1840s-1860s is a good choice for the Berner Street case. Doesn't show the Bording School (it was built later), but the rest of the detail is good. You can use the measuring tools to get distances, and if you use patrol speeds of around 2.7-2.9 mph (remember 5280 feet per mile), you can work out how far a PC would cover in a given amount of time, and then measure that off on their beat to estimate where they would be. It's not that hard, and you can set things up in something like Excel to do the calculations for you, which makes it easier to just enter a new duration and get the new distance, or enter a distance to estimate the time required to cover it, and so forth. If you did that, you would have realised that Brown would never seen PC Smith. And given we do not know when Spooner gets to Fairclough, nor is there any reason for him to have noticed a PC on his beat while he's talking with his lady friend, it doesn't matter. And remember, Miss Letchford only comes to us because her brother says she was on the porch at 12:50, she never confirms this - it's quite a few steps removed from being a key witness statement. For all we know, she told her brother she was going to go out, but never actually did, and he was unaware that she didn't.

        There is no basis for dismissing the existence of Parcelman, BS man, and Pipeman. In fact, while there's still lots of work to be done to fill in as much of the details as we can, it is currently looking like there may be two points in time when the Schwartz incident could have occurred - just before Fanny comes out for her vigil, but also shortly after she goes inside. The "pre-vigil" is the smaller window of opportunity, but it might just be long enough that we can't exclude it. Other estimates of things like PC Smith's passage at the south end of Berner Street (and his patrol of Fairclough) might help indicate at what point the Schwartz event has to be over, given none of the characters are spotted. Of course, B.S. could have left by going North, so it's really just the exiting of Schwartz and Pipeman we definately need to concern ourselves with as they exit south, and PC Smith doesn't indicate he saw them.

        It's too soon to draw any conclusions though. There are a lot of characters, and the information we have is very messy, but that is what makes it a challenge.

        - Jeff
        Last edited by JeffHamm; 05-07-2024, 11:40 AM.

        Comment


        • Originally posted by GBinOz View Post
          I quite agree that Smith seemed totally unaware that anything had happened. While we can't assume that Eagle and Koze were shouting, the question arises as to why Smith didn't hear Lamb's whistle.
          Hi George,

          According to Lamb, two men came to him, running and shouting. At least, most newspapers have it like that. Also, the Times has Eagle stating that he “went to the Commercial-road, all the time shouting "Police!".”

          As to the whistling, that happened a few minutes later, I think as a result of Lamb finding himself alone after sending Ayliffe away for the doctor. My guess would be that Smith, at the time of the whistling, was approaching the corner of Berner Street on Commercial Road, probably between Backchurch Lane and Berner Street. If so, there would be some 115 m/380 feet and a lot of houses/buildings between Smith and the whistle, which might explain why Smith didn’t hear it.

          That would indicate to me that Smith was very close to the gateway when Lamb used his whistle, that Ayliffe had travelled to the surgery via Hampshire Ct, and Eagle used the southern route to Leman St. I haven't been able to find out how long Eagle had been in the area, or whether he actually knew the location of the P.S.. Might he have spent some time finding the building?
          I don’t understand the first bit there. Why/how does it indicate that Smith was very close to the gateway when Lamb whistled?

          As to Ayliffe going by Hampshire Court: that is quite possible, but would depend on the hypothesis of Smith’s route. If he wasn’t somewhere inside, then the best guess (or, at least, mine) would be that he was walking towards Gower’s Walk, so with his back towards Berner Street more than 125 m/410 feet from where Eagle & Kozebrodski would surface from Berner Street. If so, then Smith not seeing & hearing E & K calling for Lamb was due to his position and walking direction when the couple arrived at Commercial Road to find & fetch Lamb. Ayliffe going by Hampshire Ct. or going north on Berner St. wouldn’t make a difference.

          But, of course, that’s only if we’d assume Smith was walking towards Gower’s Walk, after passing Backchurch Lane. If one prefers another route altogether, then everything would change and Ayliffe going by Hampshire Ct. might be of influence.

          The best,
          Frank
          "You can rob me, you can starve me and you can beat me and you can kill me. Just don't bore me."
          Clint Eastwood as Gunny in "Heartbreak Ridge"

          Comment


          • Originally posted by GBinOz View Post
            Google maps shows a 17 minute walk from Phillips home to LSPS, plus the time to walk to the Yard (6-7 minutes?). If he arrived at around 1:43-1:44, that would be consistent with Reid's testimony, and also indicate that Phillips was walking, not running. However, it would have taken a constable around 17 minutes to walk (can we assume this PC ran when Reid and Phillips did not?) from LSPS to Phillip's home to call him, meaning the constable left LSPS around 1:03, but this is not consistent with your contention that Lamb despatched Eagle at 1:06, or the newspaper report that LSPS were notified at 1:10.

            I'm sure that Frank and yourself will work on the times, and calculate the walking paces set by Phillips and the PC sent to call him.
            Hi George,

            Spital Square 2 to Leman Street Police Station : 1.150 m/0.72 miles
            LSPS – Dutfield’s Yard : 510 m/1675 feet
            Commercial Street police station – Dutfield’s Yard : 1.390 m/0.87

            A PC going for Dr Phillips at an average speed of 6.12 kmph/3.8 mph would cover that distance in 11 minutes and 17 seconds. If he would be going faster, he could have done it in 10 minutes, or thereabouts.

            If Dr Phillips would have walked at an average walking speed of 5 kmph/3.1 mph, then he would have arrived at the LSPS 13 minutes and 42 seconds after leaving his residence.

            Then, walking at that same average speed, he would have arrived in Dutfield’s Yard 6 minutes and 5 seconds after leaving LSPS.

            If Reid walked at an average speed of 5.5 kmph/3.4 mph, he would have reached the yard after 15 minutes and 15 seconds. Walking at a speed of 5 kmph/3.1 mph, it would have taken him 16 minutes and 33 seconds to get there.

            As Jeff suggested, we can't know quick or slow each person was when he made his (various) trip(s). The PC going for Phillips might have used a bicycle or horse, or he ran part or even most or all of the way. What we do know, however, is that Phillips was there when Reid arrived and I don't think the timings, distances and possible walking speeds don't or couldn't fit with that.

            All the best,
            Frank
            "You can rob me, you can starve me and you can beat me and you can kill me. Just don't bore me."
            Clint Eastwood as Gunny in "Heartbreak Ridge"

            Comment


            • Originally posted by FrankO View Post
              Hi George,

              According to Lamb, two men came to him, running and shouting. At least, most newspapers have it like that. Also, the Times has Eagle stating that he “went to the Commercial-road, all the time shouting "Police!".”

              As to the whistling, that happened a few minutes later, I think as a result of Lamb finding himself alone after sending Ayliffe away for the doctor. My guess would be that Smith, at the time of the whistling, was approaching the corner of Berner Street on Commercial Road, probably between Backchurch Lane and Berner Street. If so, there would be some 115 m/380 feet and a lot of houses/buildings between Smith and the whistle, which might explain why Smith didn’t hear it.


              I don’t understand the first bit there. Why/how does it indicate that Smith was very close to the gateway when Lamb whistled?
              Hi Frank,

              You are right about Eagle shouting for police, but at that stage Smith would have been some distance from the Commercial/Berner intersection.

              When I researched police whistles it was stated that they could be heard up to a mile away, and were used to "call" police to a crime scene. Smith stated that he was not called, but noticed a crowd around the yard and proceeded towards it. I think he did not mention being called to the yard by the whistle because he was already at the yard when he heard the whistle. He testified there were two PCs at the scene when he arrived - Lamb and Collins?

              It's quite late here so I'll address your following post tomorrow.

              Best regards, George
              It's sad that governments are chiefed by the double tongues. There is iron in your words of death for all Comanche to see, and so there is iron in your words of life. It shall be life. - Ten Bears

              All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain. - Bladerunner

              ​Disagreeing doesn't have to be disagreeable - Jeff Hamm

              Comment


              • Originally posted by GBinOz View Post

                Hi Frank,

                You are right about Eagle shouting for police, but at that stage Smith would have been some distance from the Commercial/Berner intersection.

                When I researched police whistles it was stated that they could be heard up to a mile away, and were used to "call" police to a crime scene. Smith stated that he was not called, but noticed a crowd around the yard and proceeded towards it. I think he did not mention being called to the yard by the whistle because he was already at the yard when he heard the whistle. He testified there were two PCs at the scene when he arrived - Lamb and Collins?

                It's quite late here so I'll address your following post tomorrow.

                Best regards, George
                Hi George,

                Thanks for your response. I see what you mean now as to Smith being close to the gateway when Lamb blew his whistle. That makes sense with regards to the notion/fact that whistles could be heard up to a mile away. Although I would still find it odd that Smith then wouldn't mention hearing any whistling just before he arrived in the yard.

                On the other hand, it still wouldn't make sense for Smith already being in Berner Street and close to the gateway when Lamb whistled. Because that would also mean that Smith would be closer to Berner Street and able to see & hear E & K on their way to Lamb, but he we know he didn't see or hear them.

                The best,
                Frank
                "You can rob me, you can starve me and you can beat me and you can kill me. Just don't bore me."
                Clint Eastwood as Gunny in "Heartbreak Ridge"

                Comment


                • Originally posted by FrankO View Post
                  Hi George,

                  Spital Square 2 to Leman Street Police Station : 1.150 m/0.72 miles
                  LSPS – Dutfield’s Yard : 510 m/1675 feet
                  Commercial Street police station – Dutfield’s Yard : 1.390 m/0.87

                  A PC going for Dr Phillips at an average speed of 6.12 kmph/3.8 mph would cover that distance in 11 minutes and 17 seconds. If he would be going faster, he could have done it in 10 minutes, or thereabouts.

                  If Dr Phillips would have walked at an average walking speed of 5 kmph/3.1 mph, then he would have arrived at the LSPS 13 minutes and 42 seconds after leaving his residence.

                  Then, walking at that same average speed, he would have arrived in Dutfield’s Yard 6 minutes and 5 seconds after leaving LSPS.

                  If Reid walked at an average speed of 5.5 kmph/3.4 mph, he would have reached the yard after 15 minutes and 15 seconds. Walking at a speed of 5 kmph/3.1 mph, it would have taken him 16 minutes and 33 seconds to get there.

                  As Jeff suggested, we can't know quick or slow each person was when he made his (various) trip(s). The PC going for Phillips might have used a bicycle or horse, or he ran part or even most or all of the way. What we do know, however, is that Phillips was there when Reid arrived and I don't think the timings, distances and possible walking speeds don't or couldn't fit with that.

                  All the best,
                  Frank
                  Hi Frank,

                  I have incorporated, approximately, your timings into my timeline and made some additions:

                  Before 12:34 - Wess & company leave, Letchford arrives, Lave goes outside (and remains there for 5 to 10 minutes), Eagle returns to the club, couple arrives at the corner of the board school, Stride & companion arrive opposite the club
                  12:34 - Smith sees Parcelman and Stride and is heard passing by FM.
                  12:35 - Parcelman and Stride cross into the yard just before FM arrives at her door. FM’s clock is running 10 minutes fast and shows 12:45.
                  12:45 - FM leaves door after locking up. Brown passes and sees the couple. Couple leaves. Schwartz turns into Berner St.
                  12:46 - BSM and Schwartz arrive at the yard and BSM pulls Stride from the yard into the street. Schwartz crosses the road and proceeds to Fairclough St. Pipeman emerges, frightens Schwartz, BSM calls out Lipski. Pipeman and Schwartz depart to the south.
                  12:47 - 12:52 - Someone kills Stride
                  12:52 - Diemshitz turns into Berner St. Club clock is running 10 minutes slow and reads 12:42.
                  12:53 - Diemshitz pulls into yard and horse shies.
                  12:53 to 12:55 - Diemshitz prods Stride with whip, climbs down from cart, lights match and sees shape of woman, goes into club searching for his wife, locates candle and returns to discover the body, alerts those in the club who emerge and light matches to observe the body.
                  12:55 - Club members depart the yard looking for police. Club clock reads 12:45. Diemshitz sends Kozebrodski out and follows behind, giving rise to the story of a chase down Fairclough St.
                  12:56 – Diemshitz and Kozebrodski arrive at Grove St. They start back to the yard and encounter Harris and Spooner. Diemshitz slows to talk to then while Kozebrodski keeps running back to the yard.
                  12:57 – Kozebrodski arrives back at the yard and joins Eagle to run to Commercial Road. Alternatively, Kozebrodski turns into Batty St and meets Eagle at the corner at Commercial Road after Eagle returns from initially turning west on Commercial Road.
                  12:58 – Diemshitz arrives back at yard with Spooner.
                  12:59 to 1:00 - Lamb is walking west along Commercial Road having just come from the Fixed Point where PC 426 is due to go off duty at 1:00. Smith is headed west on Commercial Road, nearly at his turning point at Gower’s Walk. Lamb proceeds to the yard, followed by PC 426.
                  1:01 – Lamb is standing over body. He sends the PC for the doctor and Eagle to Leman St Police Station. Smith arrives at the Berner St/Commercial Road corner. Collins arrives at yard.
                  1:02 – Smith arrives at yard just as Lamb is blowing his whistle.
                  1:03 - Johnson testified he was alerted by P.C. a few minutes after 1am.
                  1:04 - Johnson alerts Blackwell, who testified that he was alerted at 1:10 (6 min clock sync error?).
                  1:05 – Johnston gathers his hat, coat and medical bad and leaves for the yard.
                  1:08 - Johnson arrives at yard and is mistaken for Blackwell by Lamb and Diemshitz. Smith leaves to fetch the ambulance.
                  1:07 – Johnston opens Stride’s collar and begins to examine body. Lamb closes gates, assisted by Spooner.
                  1:08 to 1:09 – Eagle arrives at the door of Leman St P.S. and Inspector Pinhorn is summoned to the front desk. Eagle’s story is recorded as 1:10. A PC is dispatched to call Dr Phillips.
                  1:10 - Blackwell arrives at yard, finds gates closed. Most journalists reported Blackwell as testifying that his pocket watch showed 1:16 (6 min clock sync error). The Times reported he testified that his pocket watch read 1:10. He finds Stride’s collar is open. Blackwell estimates Stride has been dead 20 minutes to half hour:- i.e. TOD of about 12:40 to 12:50 Police time, but stipulates death was not instantaneous, and that she would have taken some time to bleed out.
                  1:20 – PC calls Dr Phillips at his home a 2 Spital Ct.
                  1:25 – Reid is advised by Telegraph at Commercial St Police Office.
                  1:39 – Phillips arrives at Yard. This is consistent with Blackwell’s estimate that Phillips arrived 20-30 minutes after he arrived.

                  1:41 – Reid arrives at Yard.

                  The point I am trying to make is that the police times to which Lamb and Smith testified can be accepted without the need to make adjustments to accommodate the time estimates of Mortimer, Eagle, Lave, Brown et al which, according to Chris McKay, could contain clock errors of +/- 10 minutes in addition to any guesstimate errors of the following time intervals.

                  Best regards, George
                  It's sad that governments are chiefed by the double tongues. There is iron in your words of death for all Comanche to see, and so there is iron in your words of life. It shall be life. - Ten Bears

                  All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain. - Bladerunner

                  ​Disagreeing doesn't have to be disagreeable - Jeff Hamm

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by GBinOz View Post

                    Hi Jeff,

                    While you are aware of the regard in which I hold your hypotheses, I find myself unable to agree in this regard.

                    The police station clocks were regulated to GMT by telegraph, so their times can be carved in stone, as can, I believe, the times of Reid and Phillips . However, I don't discount a reporter error in the Eagle at LSPS at 1:10. I am aware of only the single report - are you aware of any corroborating publications? From the answers provided by Monty, it is clear to me that there is a high probability that the Section Sergeant established local clock time corrections for GMT, and they would be likely to be near fixed point stations. YMMV. This, combined with the monotonous routine of the beat would, IMO, provide for an GMT time accuracy far superior to that of a doctor's pocket watch, particularly when that pocket watch appears to be out of sync with the Practice clock by about 6 minutes. I have a far less regard for civilian time guesstimates such as provided by Mortimer, Eagle, Lave and Brown as their estimates are based on intervals from the observation of a clock of unknown synchronisation. Once again, JMO.

                    Just to restate, I prefer to accept the police testimony of Lamb and Smith over the consideration of possible times computed from largely conflicting press reports. I do acknowledge that the beat PCs may have been 2-3 minutes out if they were at the end of their beat before they could reference their benchmark clock, I find 6-7 minutes difficult to accept.

                    Best regards, George
                    Hi George,

                    I'm only aware of the one report that places Eagle's arrival at the station at 1:10. If we think that information is unreliable, which as you say it could be, then we would require a different clock to use as our standard time piece. As I mentioned before, I don't think it is critical that we be confident the clock we use as our standard is set to GMT as for me the goal is to try and get all the information in a time line that has a common reference point. While in theory we could use any witness who states a time and say "ok, we're going to use that person's time as our common reference point", and then work out a time for everyone else, I prefer to use a time based upon someone who read a clock and timestamps their position and activity at the time they read it. In the Stride case, we have 3 potential "standards" that would fit that criterion.

                    Dr. Blackwell's watch as he tells us it reads 1:16 at the point he arrives at the crime scene.
                    The Leman Street Police Station, as we are told it was 1:10 when Eagle arrived there.
                    Deimschutz, as he says it was 1:00 when he passed the top of Berner Street.

                    All other stated times are based upon people who may, or may not, have seen a clock recently but some unknown amount of time has passed since then, so their times are always a combination of "a potential clock reading" plus "an estimation of how much time has passed since they viewed that clock". Using those sorts of times will mean that when we compare to actual clock readings, we are combining error from two sources - the de-sync between two clocks plus the error associated with our standard times estimation of the duration.

                    Now, while the Leman Street Police station clock time could be an error, when I look at the time line produced using Dr. Blackwell's watch as the time standard, the estimated times for events are all very similar to those we are getting when using the Leman Street Police station clock as the standard. That consistency either means the two clocks have very little de-sync error, or that by some lucky coincidence, the paper got the Leman Street Police Station clock time wrong in exactly the right way to produce a corresponding set of times as Dr. Blackwell's watch. I find that too big of a stretch to accept. If, as per the estimated times, PC Lamb arrives on the scene around 1:05-1:06 ish (based on the Eagle hurries version), then PC Lamb's estimate for Dr. Blackwell's arrival of 10-12 minutes fits very well. And given you are arguing that the PCs will keep such accurate time, then that too suggests that Dr. Blackwell's watch and the Leman Police Station's clock are in close alignment (and I would agree with you that means they are probably both set to GMT, since we have every reason to believe the police clock would be).

                    As for the PC's having some sort of "adjustment factor" to apply to their beat clock, I think we'll have to disagree on that. I've seen nothing to suggest they did such a thing, and so while I agree that the police will be more reliable in their time keeping than a citizen, their reliability will be in reference to their beat clock, and that clock can be out of sync with other clocks. I don't think the clock PC Lamb was using was out of sync with the Leman Street Police station by much (in the vicinity of 3 minutes or so), but I don't think he was applying any sort of "correction" in order to align his beat clock with GMT (nor do I think the fixed point PCs would either). Even if he did, if PC Lamb was the one to relieve PC Ayliffe from his fixed point duty, he can only do so when he reaches that point of his own beat, and there's no guarantee he would reach PC Ayliffe at exactly 1:00:00. If he arrived a few minutes early, he would simply inform Ayliffe that he has a few minutes before knocking off, and continue on, in which case Eagle would have found PC Lamb by himself. The fact PC Ayliffe is with him tells us PC Lamb, at least, thinks it is at least 1:00 or after.

                    A further reason for not thinking the PCs are adjusting to GMT is the fact that the times stated by PC Smith and PC Lamb simply do not align. PC Lamb clearly is met by Eagle and Kos at or after PC Lamb thinks it is 1:00, since PC Alyiffe has been relieved of duty. They have to then get to the scene, PC Lamb sends off Eagle to Leman Street and Ayliffe to fetch the doctor, and another PC arrives from the south, all before PC Smith arrives.

                    But PC Smith claims to be at the top of Berner Street at 1:00! In other words, it is not possible for PC Smith and PC Lamb to be using the same clock so they are not adjusting their beat clocks to GMT. Rather, their times are subject to clock-desync, which is what we're trying to work out and correct for by estimating the times all in reference to one common clock.

                    Anyway, that's my reasoning as to why I think we'll have to agree to disagree with regards to the idea that all the police times are adjusted to be in reference to GMT.

                    - Jeff


                    Comment


                    • Hi George,

                      I think this is worth mentioning as well, and I tried to add it to my above post, but the time limit for edits had passed.

                      I know you've been considering a report that has Dr. Blackwell arrive at the crime scene at 1:10 rather than 1:16. However, Johnson also states that the time was 1:16 when Dr. Blackwell arrived in his own inquest testimony (copied from the inquest testimony section of the official documents section of Casebook):

                      [Coroner] Did you look for any? - Yes. I had no watch with me, but Dr. Blackwell looked at his when he arrived, and the time was 1.16 a.m. I preceded him by three or four minutes. The bonnet of the deceased was lying three or four inches beyond the head on the ground. The outer gates were closed shortly after I came.

                      As such, given that Blackwell does at one point state he was alerted at 1:10, I suspect that report is a reporter's error and they put 1:10 as Blackwell's arrival time rather than his alerted time. And I put forth the following as support for that idea.

                      If it was 1:16 by Blackwell's watch (which I am arguing is in good alignment with the Leman Street Police clock), then Johnson arrives at the scene between 1:12 and 1:13 type thing (his 3-4 minutes before Blackwell). It would require about 1m 57s (so 2 minutes) to walk from Dr. Blackwell's to the scene, indicating he probably left around 1:10 to 1:11, which aligns with Dr. Blackwell's statement that he was alerted around 1:10. And as the "Eagle Hurries" version estimates PC Lamb and PC Ayliffe arrive at the scene around 1:05/1:06, then even if PC Ayliffe immediately leaves and hurries to fetch the doctor (4.11 mph), he still needs about 1m 30s to get there, placing his arrival around 1:07 ish, leaving 3 minutes for Johnson to come to the door, be informed of the situation, and then go rouse Dr. Blackwell.

                      Those above times, given they are estimates based upon travel time are all aligning tickity boo!.​ In other words, his sequence of events works very well based upon my suggestions that Dr. Blackwell arrived at 1:16, and that Dr. Blackwell's watch is well aligned with the Leman Street police station clock (because Ayliffe's departure time is based upon the Leman Street Police station clock, and the times above for Johnson and Blackwell are in reference to Blackwell's watch, yet the calculated travel times sync the events up well. Given we're estimating things, so there's always a range of error associated with the values, I think the above fit between the estimations and the statements is very good to the point that I think this is a very reasonable model of the actual events.

                      - Jeff​

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by JeffHamm View Post
                        Hi George,

                        I think this is worth mentioning as well, and I tried to add it to my above post, but the time limit for edits had passed.

                        I know you've been considering a report that has Dr. Blackwell arrive at the crime scene at 1:10 rather than 1:16. However, Johnson also states that the time was 1:16 when Dr. Blackwell arrived in his own inquest testimony (copied from the inquest testimony section of the official documents section of Casebook):

                        [Coroner] Did you look for any? - Yes. I had no watch with me, but Dr. Blackwell looked at his when he arrived, and the time was 1.16 a.m. I preceded him by three or four minutes. The bonnet of the deceased was lying three or four inches beyond the head on the ground. The outer gates were closed shortly after I came.

                        As such, given that Blackwell does at one point state he was alerted at 1:10, I suspect that report is a reporter's error and they put 1:10 as Blackwell's arrival time rather than his alerted time. And I put forth the following as support for that idea.

                        If it was 1:16 by Blackwell's watch (which I am arguing is in good alignment with the Leman Street Police clock), then Johnson arrives at the scene between 1:12 and 1:13 type thing (his 3-4 minutes before Blackwell). It would require about 1m 57s (so 2 minutes) to walk from Dr. Blackwell's to the scene, indicating he probably left around 1:10 to 1:11, which aligns with Dr. Blackwell's statement that he was alerted around 1:10. And as the "Eagle Hurries" version estimates PC Lamb and PC Ayliffe arrive at the scene around 1:05/1:06, then even if PC Ayliffe immediately leaves and hurries to fetch the doctor (4.11 mph), he still needs about 1m 30s to get there, placing his arrival around 1:07 ish, leaving 3 minutes for Johnson to come to the door, be informed of the situation, and then go rouse Dr. Blackwell.

                        Those above times, given they are estimates based upon travel time are all aligning tickity boo!.​ In other words, his sequence of events works very well based upon my suggestions that Dr. Blackwell arrived at 1:16, and that Dr. Blackwell's watch is well aligned with the Leman Street police station clock (because Ayliffe's departure time is based upon the Leman Street Police station clock, and the times above for Johnson and Blackwell are in reference to Blackwell's watch, yet the calculated travel times sync the events up well. Given we're estimating things, so there's always a range of error associated with the values, I think the above fit between the estimations and the statements is very good to the point that I think this is a very reasonable model of the actual events.

                        - Jeff​
                        Hi Jeff,

                        The Times Oct 3:
                        Mr. Frederick William Blackwell said, - I live at 100, Commercial-road, and am a surgeon. At 10 minutes past 1 on Sunday morning I was called to 40, Berner-street. I was called by a policeman, and my assistant, Mr. Johnson, went back with him. I followed immediately I had dressed. I consulted my watch on my arrival, and it was just 1:10.

                        This report is clearly contradictory, and I am not proposing it as support for my hypothesis, but did previously quote it for the sake of completeness. The majority of reports of the inquest state that Johnson said he was called a few minutes after one, while Blackwell testified he was called at 1:10. It appears that Johnson was basing his time on the Practice clock while Blackwell was using his pocket watch. Using the commonly used meaning of the word "few" there seems to be a sync difference of around 6 minutes. Johnson reports that Blackwell told him that the latter's pocket watch read 1:16 when Blackwell arrived. I am proposing that the Practice clock read 1:10 at that stage, and the Practice clock was in sync with the police times, as testified by Lamb and Smith, and the Leman St P.S. clock.

                        It appears to me that our sequences and time intervals are reasonably similar, while our bench mark time standard differs by about 6 minutes. If you look at my most recent timeline and add 6 minutes to all the times up to Blackwell's arrival, does that come close to your proposed timeline?

                        Best regards, George

                        Correction: I have just noticed that where my timeline reads "1:07 – Johnston opens Stride’s collar", the time should be 1:09.
                        It's sad that governments are chiefed by the double tongues. There is iron in your words of death for all Comanche to see, and so there is iron in your words of life. It shall be life. - Ten Bears

                        All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain. - Bladerunner

                        ​Disagreeing doesn't have to be disagreeable - Jeff Hamm

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by GBinOz View Post

                          Hi Jeff,

                          The Times Oct 3:
                          Mr. Frederick William Blackwell said, - I live at 100, Commercial-road, and am a surgeon. At 10 minutes past 1 on Sunday morning I was called to 40, Berner-street. I was called by a policeman, and my assistant, Mr. Johnson, went back with him. I followed immediately I had dressed. I consulted my watch on my arrival, and it was just 1:10.

                          This report is clearly contradictory, and I am not proposing it as support for my hypothesis, but did previously quote it for the sake of completeness. The majority of reports of the inquest state that Johnson said he was called a few minutes after one, while Blackwell testified he was called at 1:10. It appears that Johnson was basing his time on the Practice clock while Blackwell was using his pocket watch. Using the commonly used meaning of the word "few" there seems to be a sync difference of around 6 minutes. Johnson reports that Blackwell told him that the latter's pocket watch read 1:16 when Blackwell arrived. I am proposing that the Practice clock read 1:10 at that stage, and the Practice clock was in sync with the police times, as testified by Lamb and Smith, and the Leman St P.S. clock.

                          It appears to me that our sequences and time intervals are reasonably similar, while our bench mark time standard differs by about 6 minutes. If you look at my most recent timeline and add 6 minutes to all the times up to Blackwell's arrival, does that come close to your proposed timeline?

                          Best regards, George

                          Correction: I have just noticed that where my timeline reads "1:07 – Johnston opens Stride’s collar", the time should be 1:09.
                          Hi George,
                          Actually, what the Times had looks very much like what I suggested. Dr. Blackwell's quote has him both being alerted at 1:10 and later arriving at the scene, also at 1:10. Given every other reports coroborates the 1:10 alerting, but places his arrival as being at 1:16, then it seems to me far more likely that is an error in the Times rather than something Blackwell would actually have said. Even if, as you suggest, the Practice clock and Dr. Blackwell's watch did read different times, I cannot imagine Dr. Blackwell testifying that he was in two different places at the same time (which the Times has him doing).

                          I'll have a go at comparing the two timelines to see if we're just "out by a constant" more or less. That is what would happen if we're aligning to two different clocks - the times in one version are simply earlier or later than the other by X minutes. Things get messy if one tries to create a timeline but mixes and matches readings from different clocks (unless the two clocks are in sync of course; a desync of a minute or two probably wouldn't create much havock, but the variation between the sequencing increases each time a new clock that reads a different time is added without adjustment).

                          Where things get tricky are events/statements that provide a time but don't link up with some other known event. For example, Lave's 10 minutes in the yard. He states a time, but we have no idea what clock he's using or how he even came to that time. And he doesn't mention any of the other known events that we could use to tie him in. As such, all we can really do is guestimate where in the more interconnected time line his "yard visit" might fit. So we would look for a roughly 8-10 minute time period, in the vicinity of his stated time, and prior to the murder, where his statement would "fit", and he would go "around here somewhere". Generally, though, these details tend to be of the "and nothing of great importance happened now", except for the Schwartz Event. That's the one of interest, but before we can really see if there's a place it "fits", building up of the events that surround it has to be done first. After that, we look for 2-3 minute "holes" into which one could plug the Schwartz event. If there aren't any, then either the information is just too messy (entirely possible) and our recreation attempts are unable to provide the necessary clarity, or there's something suspect either in the information we're working with, or with the Schwartz event itself. That's sort of my long term goal with this stuff, and it may be a bit overly ambitious given we have a lot of estimations, and estimations themselves have error margins, so it may be that our error margins will end up plugging the hole on us and obscure it from our view. But so far, I'm encouraged enough to keep at it, and that's what makes it an interesting and fun project.

                          - Jeff

                          Comment


                          • Hi George,

                            I've compared our time lines where we have common things listed. You have a lot more fine detail at points, which is good. I know you have Kozebrodski arrive back ahead of Deimschutz, so where I've got Eagle Heads north I had Spooner's arrival too, but I like your "double return times" idea, and so would be inclined to agree Spooner could arrive a minute or so later, which would be a 6 minute difference between our clocks.

                            Anyway, on the whole though, we line up pretty good. The only difference is you've got things earlier than I do, but a simple 6 minute "shift" of one time line to the other would reduce our time differences to around 1 or 2 minutes in places. Given these are estimates, I would also say we have the same time line sequence but we're looking at different clocks that differ by about 6 minutes, which you suggested above.

                            Now, and just because I can't resist! I believe your clock is PC Lamb's time. My clock is the Leman Street Police Station clock. If PC Lamb is adjusting his time to align with GMT, which we both think the Leman Street Police Station clock would be, why is PC Lamb out by 6 minutes compared to the Leman Street Police Station clock? If PC Lamb's clock = GMT and the Leman Street Police Station Clock = GMT, then our two time lines should not differ by a constant, as they appear to do.

                            Therefore your honour, I submit to the court that the PC's on their beat did not adjust their times to GMT and that PC Lamb is running slow by 6 minutes. (I was looking for a judge, but a police officer was the closest I could fine sadly).

                            - Jeff
                            Difference (min) Jeff Time George Time Event
                            8 12:42:27 12:34 PC Smith Passes Fanny's
                            9 12:44:27 12:35 Fanny Emerges
                            1 12:46:05 12:45 Brown at shop
                            7 12:52:27 12:45 Fanny Goes Inside
                            6 or 7 12:58:45 12:52 Diemschutz Enters Berner Street
                            6 or 7 12:59:48 12:53 Diemschutz Arrival
                            6 or 7 1:01:38 12:55 Fairclough Run Starts
                            6 1:03:26 12:57 Eagle heads North to find Police/Fairclough
                            4 or 5 1:04:38 12:59 to 1:00 PC Lamb and PC Ayliffe Alerted
                            4 or 5 1:05:50 1:01 Eagle departs to Station/PC Lamb and Ayliffe's Arrival
                            6 1:08:15 1:02 PC Smith Arrives
                            1 or 2 1:10:30 1:08 to 1:09 Eagle Arrives at Leman Street Police Station
                            Click image for larger version  Name:	image.png Views:	0 Size:	82.5 KB ID:	833954
                            Last edited by JeffHamm; 05-08-2024, 02:10 AM.

                            Comment


                            • Oh, there are two times where we differ by 1 minute that I think are worth commenting upon.
                              Brown at the store. You have the run start at 12:55, and Brown at the store at 12:45. While he gives 12:45 for the time, he also indicates that he heard the runners go by 15 minutes later. You have a 10 minute interval. If you use his 15 minute interval relative to the start of the run (which is in PC Lamb time), then Brown's "PC Lamb Time" would be 12:40, and we would differ by 6 minutes again. Using his stated time there means that time is in "Brown Time", while the run start is in "PC Lamb Time", so it's a mixing of clocks. Brown's 12:45 would be the same as PC Lamb's 12:40.

                              The same applies for Eagle's arrival at the station. You've got 1:08/1:09, as you've made some allowances for a delay between his arrival at the station and the recording of his time of 1:10. But the 1:10 is in Leman Street Police Station Time, which is probably very close to GMT. And since that is the clock I build my timeline on, it's not a surprise that we are in close agreement there as we're now using the same clock.

                              After suggesting that Brown Time be converted to PC Lamb time, we then have the situation where all our time stamps are about 6 minutes apart, with only a minute or two here and there due to slightly different calculations and considerations being proposed, which again leads me to the conclusion that PC Lamb's idea of the time was 6 minutes earlier than the Leman Street Police Station, indicating he wasn't adjusting to GMT.

                              - Jeff
                              Last edited by JeffHamm; 05-08-2024, 02:51 AM.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by The Rookie Detective View Post

                                That's why the entire Schwartz incident was fiction, including BS man and Pipeman and the entire Anti Semitic rhetoric

                                Schwartz was paid to give a false statement to detract from the truth.

                                But for a lie to work and be convincing, you have to embed it with a foundation of truth.
                                Except there is exactly 0 evidence for such a claim, similar to Russel's Teapot. Russel's Teapot is an example used to demonstrate that the burden of proof lies with those making the claim not with those who discount it in the absence of any proof. One can claim that in the asteroid belt there is a teapot that orbits the sun, and claim that the reason we cannot see it is because it is so small. Given there is no proof that the teapot is there, the burden of proof lies with those making the claim that it is, not with those who discount it.

                                There is nothing that constitutes proof that Schwartz was paid to make a false statement, and therefore, there it is up to those making such conspiratorial claims to provide proof of such payments.

                                Also, given that as we work on the timelines, it seems that there may be a couple of time windows where the Schwartz event could have occurred and yet not be seen by Fanny, etc, then there may not even be an indication that there is anything wrong with Schwartz's statement.

                                ​​​​​​I would imagine the kill time of Stride was at 12.45am and she lay in the dark for up to 15 minutes before she was found.


                                By bringing Smiths time forward, it makes everyone else's timing in the aftermath of the finding of the body fit.
                                PC Smith has to be "brought forward" because he claims to be at the top of Berner Street at the very same time Eagle is contacting PC Lamb on Commercial Street! But we know that PC Smith doesn't arrive until well after that contact, as he arrives after PC Lamb then gets to the crime scene, and has sent off Eagle, and sent of PC Ayliffe, blown his whistle and attracted another PC from the south. PC Smith's idea of the time is clearly out of sync with PC Lamb's, so to get them in the right sequential order, we have to account for the different clock settings.
                                But by doing so it exposes Schwartz and the "assault," for what it is...fake news
                                No, doing so shows that the clocks are out of sync.
                                ​​​​​​But why?

                                Well why was Packer targeted by Le Grand?
                                No idea.
                                There's more at play here than people realize and Stride's murder was set up to oppose the Jews and try and pin the blame on them and the club
                                Hence why the GSG graffiti which was written to be ironic.

                                Stride as lured to her death by someone she thought she could trust.

                                Someone who disliked Jews, Socialists and anarchists...

                                If only there was someone who fits that profile...


                                RD
                                We have to get the sequential order of the events as close to correct as we can first, and only then should we start to try and interpret what the event sequence means. Data first, theory and interpretation to follow.

                                - Jeff

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