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  • Hi,

    I've been working on a program to generate a way to visually present witness statements based upon a clock type figure that Wickerman used. I've finally got a working proto-type version, and wanted to test it out, so I grabbed this information from Herlock's post where he lists the various news sources that mention Lave being in the yard.

    Some are pretty straight forward, as they list actual clock times (the first 3). Some only reference an interval prior to the discovery of the body (20 minutes). So, for testing purposes, left the body discovery at 1:00, making 20 minutes prior to be 12:40. However, two of the sources say he was in the yard for 5 or more minutes, so does that 12:40 refer to the start of that 5 minute interval or the end of it? I've done it both ways. Part of me thinks it would refer to the end of his time in the yard, as it really only makes sense as to how long before the murder he stopped being in the yard rather than refer to the time between when he first went out into the yard and the body was found. The end yard time to body discovery interval is, after, the time window for the murder, so the news would be reporting that - there's a 20 minute window when the murder could have taken place.

    The first image shows the representation when I place the start of Lave's 5 minute interval at 20 minutes to 1 (the version I tend not to think likely, but as that's only my opinion and I could be wrong, I thought it best to show it):

    Oh, and the minute marks would represent a 12 minute interval (divide the hour into 5 steps, and that's 12 minutes per step).

    Click image for larger version

Name:	LAVE.jpg
Views:	123
Size:	34.9 KB
ID:	832550
    I've tried to stack the "clock plots", so "higher" means more agreement.

    If I place the end of the 5 minute yard time to be at 12:40, then we get this version, and it shows a large commonality between 12:35 and 12:40 (common to all sources, except the Times, which doesn't mention the duration, just the 20 minutes before point in time):
    The duration between 12:30 and 12:35 is common to 3 sources (possible more, as the two that say 5 minutes do say 5 or more minutes, but I've not quantified the "or more" bit, obviously if I make "or more" to mean up to 5 more minutes, then 12:30-12:40 would be common to all.

    The times that have the least commonality from the sources are from 1:40 to 1:00 (1:45-1:00 in the first plot), which comes from the Evening Standard's interval of 12:30 to 1:00. I think it becomes quite clear that report seems to stand out as being quite different from the others, while the others cluster reasonably well (even the first version has them clustering pretty well).

    I've got some ideas of how summarizing witness statements like this might be used to try and work on a time line sequence that also represents the error we have in the information (these plots visually show the variation between the news reports and how they describe Lave's time in the yard).

    Anyway, the colours aren't great, and there are some cosmetic things I want to work on, but it's a working version.

    Click image for larger version

Name:	LAVE02.jpg
Views:	124
Size:	35.7 KB
ID:	832551

    Originally posted by Herlock Sholmes View Post
    Lave
    ...

    Daily News - He was in the yard and street from 12.30-12.40.
    Evening News - He was in the yard and street from 12.30-1.00.
    Evening Standard - He was in the yard and street from 12.30-12.40.
    Morning Advertiser - He was in the yard and street 20 minutes before the body was found for 5 minutes or more.
    The Times - He was in the yard and street 20 minutes before the body was found.
    Woodford Times - He was in the yard and street 20 minutes before the body was found and for around 5 minutes.
    ...

    Comment


    • Originally posted by NotBlamedForNothing View Post

      Follows up with...

      ​The times don't matter ... in theory.
      The times are a guide to illustrate one persons action in comparison with another’s. It would be impossible to describe a scenario based on a difference between two clocks without using times as a guide.
      Regards

      Sir Herlock Sholmes.

      “A house of delusions is cheap to build but draughty to live in.”

      Comment


      • Originally posted by JeffHamm View Post
        Hi,

        I've been working on a program to generate a way to visually present witness statements based upon a clock type figure that Wickerman used. I've finally got a working proto-type version, and wanted to test it out, so I grabbed this information from Herlock's post where he lists the various news sources that mention Lave being in the yard.

        Some are pretty straight forward, as they list actual clock times (the first 3). Some only reference an interval prior to the discovery of the body (20 minutes). So, for testing purposes, left the body discovery at 1:00, making 20 minutes prior to be 12:40. However, two of the sources say he was in the yard for 5 or more minutes, so does that 12:40 refer to the start of that 5 minute interval or the end of it? I've done it both ways. Part of me thinks it would refer to the end of his time in the yard, as it really only makes sense as to how long before the murder he stopped being in the yard rather than refer to the time between when he first went out into the yard and the body was found. The end yard time to body discovery interval is, after, the time window for the murder, so the news would be reporting that - there's a 20 minute window when the murder could have taken place.

        The first image shows the representation when I place the start of Lave's 5 minute interval at 20 minutes to 1 (the version I tend not to think likely, but as that's only my opinion and I could be wrong, I thought it best to show it):

        Oh, and the minute marks would represent a 12 minute interval (divide the hour into 5 steps, and that's 12 minutes per step).

        Click image for larger version

Name:	LAVE.jpg
Views:	123
Size:	34.9 KB
ID:	832550
        I've tried to stack the "clock plots", so "higher" means more agreement.

        If I place the end of the 5 minute yard time to be at 12:40, then we get this version, and it shows a large commonality between 12:35 and 12:40 (common to all sources, except the Times, which doesn't mention the duration, just the 20 minutes before point in time):
        The duration between 12:30 and 12:35 is common to 3 sources (possible more, as the two that say 5 minutes do say 5 or more minutes, but I've not quantified the "or more" bit, obviously if I make "or more" to mean up to 5 more minutes, then 12:30-12:40 would be common to all.

        The times that have the least commonality from the sources are from 1:40 to 1:00 (1:45-1:00 in the first plot), which comes from the Evening Standard's interval of 12:30 to 1:00. I think it becomes quite clear that report seems to stand out as being quite different from the others, while the others cluster reasonably well (even the first version has them clustering pretty well).

        I've got some ideas of how summarizing witness statements like this might be used to try and work on a time line sequence that also represents the error we have in the information (these plots visually show the variation between the news reports and how they describe Lave's time in the yard).

        Anyway, the colours aren't great, and there are some cosmetic things I want to work on, but it's a working version.

        Click image for larger version

Name:	LAVE02.jpg
Views:	124
Size:	35.7 KB
ID:	832551


        Good work Jeff
        Regards

        Sir Herlock Sholmes.

        “A house of delusions is cheap to build but draughty to live in.”

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Herlock Sholmes View Post

          Good work Jeff
          Thanks Herlock.

          It was a fun project. Still a few bits to tweak, and I'm considering some functionality/analysis ideas that I could build in. I may chat with some colleagues with regards to statistical analysis of this sort of data as well. And if that goes well, I'm pondering the idea that it might be possible to get the computer to stitch together the time line sequence of events by maximizing probabilities. I could build in calculations with regards to errors associated with duration statements as well, and then the computer would work to try and place events in sequence in a way that maximizes the probabilities. That might also be a way to detect which fragments/statements are likely to be errors, or at least unreliable.

          That would end up being a pretty ambitious project though, so not likely to get it done any time soon. But it would be something to keep me busy and mostly out of trouble.

          - Jeff

          Comment


          • Originally posted by JeffHamm View Post

            Thanks Herlock.

            It was a fun project. Still a few bits to tweak, and I'm considering some functionality/analysis ideas that I could build in. I may chat with some colleagues with regards to statistical analysis of this sort of data as well. And if that goes well, I'm pondering the idea that it might be possible to get the computer to stitch together the time line sequence of events by maximizing probabilities. I could build in calculations with regards to errors associated with duration statements as well, and then the computer would work to try and place events in sequence in a way that maximizes the probabilities. That might also be a way to detect which fragments/statements are likely to be errors, or at least unreliable.

            That would end up being a pretty ambitious project though, so not likely to get it done any time soon. But it would be something to keep me busy and mostly out of trouble.

            - Jeff
            And make it easy enough for those of us who are statistically and diagrammatically illiterate to understand. Basically.. me.

            PS. What do you think about my speculated explanation of the Kozebrodsky with Diemschitz/ Kozebrodsky with Eagle episode?
            Regards

            Sir Herlock Sholmes.

            “A house of delusions is cheap to build but draughty to live in.”

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Herlock Sholmes View Post
              So several members have got there before him and are probably crowding around the body. A few seconds later Eagle gets to see the body by striking a match. He sees the blood and decides to go for a Constable. It’s now a couple of minutes after Diemschitz had gone with Kozebrodski. As Eagle gets to the gate Diemschitz, Kozebrodsky and Spooner return. They tell Eagle that they haven’t found a Constable so Eagle says that he’ll try in Commercial Road. Kozebrodski goes with him and he and Eagle meet Lamb in Commercial Road.

              It covers the facts as far as I can see.

              Calm responses?
              Hi Mike,

              Here’s my calm response.
              Click image for larger version

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              If it happened the way you describe here, then it would indeed explain Kozebrodski saying that he “afterwards went into Commercial Road along with Eagle”, some newspapers stating that “The search was for some time fruitless”, and Eagle saying that “We couldn’t find one at first.”

              On the other hand, all the combined evidence doesn’t read like it happened that way, to me. It rather reads as if Eagle ran out while he could still hear Diemshutz shouting along Fairclough.

              There’s talk, in different versions, of “at the same time” that another search was started in another direction, at least once by Eagle himself (Morning Adv. of 2 October) and once in the same paper of a day before: “Both men ran off without delay to find a policeman, and at the same time other members of the club who had by this time found their way into the court went off with the same object in different directions. The search was for some time fruitless. At last, however, after considerable delay, a constable, 252 H, was found in Commercial-road.” It seems that this time it was Diemshutz who might have said it.”

              Another thing to consider, is that the round trip for Diemshutz & Kozebrodski would have been some 300 m/990 ft, which, running at a speed of 10.8 kmph/6.7 mph, would have taken them 100 seconds. So, 90 seconds would have to be added before Lamb was found, if we compare it to the situation in which Eagle leaves the yard 10 seconds after the duo; or 80 seconds if we compare it to the situation where Eagle leaves 20 seconds after them, etc..

              Based on the evidence, I’m inclined to think Eagle left on his own quite shortly (20, maybe 30 seconds) after D&K did and that K went ahead of D, who picked up Spooner on the way back to the yard, rather than Eagle only leaving after Kozebrodski returned (either with or without Diemshutz & Spooner).

              Cheers,
              Frank
              "You can rob me, you can starve me and you can beat me and you can kill me. Just don't bore me."
              Clint Eastwood as Gunny in "Heartbreak Ridge"

              Comment


              • Originally posted by JeffHamm View Post
                Oh, one thing I should have mentioned, is that the above estimated arrival time for PC Lamb of 1:05 (based upon Deimshutz's 1:00 statement), results in a very good fit with PC Lamb then saying that the doctor arrived about 10 minutes later, given Dr. Blackwell arrived at 1:16.

                - Jeff
                Just so its not overlooked, if Lamb had arrived and the first "doctor" arrived on the scene at 1:10, that works just fine too. Lamb does not mention Johnson already being there, he just reflects on when he was first aware that a doctor was there.

                Ive followed the posts and I see the same kind of favouring a bad leg kind of attitude in the rhetoric....if it troubles someone to see something from one perspective, they just revert to something more comfortable for them. However, there exists both witnesses and a viable timeline for Louis to have been there around 12:45, but favour that bad leg if you must. The contrasting timeline offered by Louis and a 1:00am arrival requires that all other accounts were incorrect. Not the most logical position to take a stand on...nor stable....but, here we are.

                People do it here all the time, just look at an MJK thread.
                Michael Richards

                Comment


                • Originally posted by JeffHamm View Post
                  Hi,

                  I've been working on a program to generate a way to visually present witness statements based upon a clock type figure that Wickerman used. I've finally got a working proto-type version, and wanted to test it out, so I grabbed this information from Herlock's post where he lists the various news sources that mention Lave being in the yard.

                  Some are pretty straight forward, as they list actual clock times (the first 3). Some only reference an interval prior to the discovery of the body (20 minutes). So, for testing purposes, left the body discovery at 1:00, making 20 minutes prior to be 12:40. However, two of the sources say he was in the yard for 5 or more minutes, so does that 12:40 refer to the start of that 5 minute interval or the end of it? I've done it both ways. Part of me thinks it would refer to the end of his time in the yard, as it really only makes sense as to how long before the murder he stopped being in the yard rather than refer to the time between when he first went out into the yard and the body was found. The end yard time to body discovery interval is, after, the time window for the murder, so the news would be reporting that - there's a 20 minute window when the murder could have taken place.

                  The first image shows the representation when I place the start of Lave's 5 minute interval at 20 minutes to 1 (the version I tend not to think likely, but as that's only my opinion and I could be wrong, I thought it best to show it):

                  Oh, and the minute marks would represent a 12 minute interval (divide the hour into 5 steps, and that's 12 minutes per step).

                  Click image for larger version

Name:	LAVE.jpg
Views:	123
Size:	34.9 KB
ID:	832550
                  I've tried to stack the "clock plots", so "higher" means more agreement.

                  If I place the end of the 5 minute yard time to be at 12:40, then we get this version, and it shows a large commonality between 12:35 and 12:40 (common to all sources, except the Times, which doesn't mention the duration, just the 20 minutes before point in time):
                  The duration between 12:30 and 12:35 is common to 3 sources (possible more, as the two that say 5 minutes do say 5 or more minutes, but I've not quantified the "or more" bit, obviously if I make "or more" to mean up to 5 more minutes, then 12:30-12:40 would be common to all.

                  The times that have the least commonality from the sources are from 1:40 to 1:00 (1:45-1:00 in the first plot), which comes from the Evening Standard's interval of 12:30 to 1:00. I think it becomes quite clear that report seems to stand out as being quite different from the others, while the others cluster reasonably well (even the first version has them clustering pretty well).

                  I've got some ideas of how summarizing witness statements like this might be used to try and work on a time line sequence that also represents the error we have in the information (these plots visually show the variation between the news reports and how they describe Lave's time in the yard).

                  Anyway, the colours aren't great, and there are some cosmetic things I want to work on, but it's a working version.

                  Click image for larger version

Name:	LAVE02.jpg
Views:	124
Size:	35.7 KB
ID:	832551


                  Jeff


                  This is a most excellent concept.

                  It shows us the data in a more illustrative manner and makes it all feel more contextually relevant and instantly more accessible to anyone wanting a more generalized summary of the known data.

                  The next step could be to apply the same process to all of the other witnesses, and then if technically possible, to run them on top of each other simultaneously.

                  It would then highlight any discrepancies with the chronological timeline more visually


                  What I find interesting from looking at Lave; is that it appears that the most likely time he was outside was between 12.30am - 12.45am (based on you clock system)

                  But that is unlikely because he saw and heard nothing of interest...and nobody saw him.




                  RD
                  "Great minds, don't think alike"

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by FrankO View Post
                    Hi Mike,

                    Here’s my calm response.
                    Click image for larger version  Name:	dataurl267954.png Views:	0 Size:	388 Bytes ID:	832561

                    If it happened the way you describe here, then it would indeed explain Kozebrodski saying that he “afterwards went into Commercial Road along with Eagle”, some newspapers stating that “The search was for some time fruitless”, and Eagle saying that “We couldn’t find one at first.”

                    On the other hand, all the combined evidence doesn’t read like it happened that way, to me. It rather reads as if Eagle ran out while he could still hear Diemshutz shouting along Fairclough.

                    There’s talk, in different versions, of “at the same time” that another search was started in another direction, at least once by Eagle himself (Morning Adv. of 2 October) and once in the same paper of a day before: “Both men ran off without delay to find a policeman, and at the same time other members of the club who had by this time found their way into the court went off with the same object in different directions. The search was for some time fruitless. At last, however, after considerable delay, a constable, 252 H, was found in Commercial-road.” It seems that this time it was Diemshutz who might have said it.”

                    Another thing to consider, is that the round trip for Diemshutz & Kozebrodski would have been some 300 m/990 ft, which, running at a speed of 10.8 kmph/6.7 mph, would have taken them 100 seconds. So, 90 seconds would have to be added before Lamb was found, if we compare it to the situation in which Eagle leaves the yard 10 seconds after the duo; or 80 seconds if we compare it to the situation where Eagle leaves 20 seconds after them, etc..

                    Based on the evidence, I’m inclined to think Eagle left on his own quite shortly (20, maybe 30 seconds) after D&K did and that K went ahead of D, who picked up Spooner on the way back to the yard, rather than Eagle only leaving after Kozebrodski returned (either with or without Diemshutz & Spooner).

                    Cheers,
                    Frank
                    Hello Frank,

                    Your responses are always welcome and worth listening to. I do see what you mean about how the testimony might sound when we have Eagle saying:

                    “I ran towards the Commercial-road, Dienishitz, the club steward, and another member going in the opposite direction down Fairclough- street.”

                    This comment is certainly interesting though:

                    ”The search was for some time fruitless​“

                    It’s difficult to see how the search could have been fruitless when Lamb was only between Christian and Batty Streets. I’d have thought that Eagle would have pretty much seen Lamb as soon as he turned into Commercial Road. I know that you’ve wondered if Eagle had first turned left and then turned back which appears a good suggestion.

                    The delay would certainly have a knock on effect on the times that I used in my earlier scenario when I considered two poorly synchronised clocks but on the other hand Eagle leaving later tied in with what Lamb said in regard to the arrival of Blackwell…that he arrived 10 minutes before Blackwell arrived (at 1.16)

                    An alternative is that Eagle and an unnamed man found Lamb, Kozebrodsky after returning ran in the same direction and met them coming back but this makes Kozebrodsky a liar. To be honest Frank I can only see one way of reconciling the differences which is my suggestion. I’m not saying that I must be right of course Frank but I find it the least troubling scenario.

                    Regards

                    Sir Herlock Sholmes.

                    “A house of delusions is cheap to build but draughty to live in.”

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Michael W Richards View Post

                      Just so its not overlooked, if Lamb had arrived and the first "doctor" arrived on the scene at 1:10, that works just fine too. Lamb does not mention Johnson already being there, he just reflects on when he was first aware that a doctor was there.

                      Ive followed the posts and I see the same kind of favouring a bad leg kind of attitude in the rhetoric....if it troubles someone to see something from one perspective, they just revert to something more comfortable for them. However, there exists both witnesses and a viable timeline for Louis to have been there around 12:45, but favour that bad leg if you must. The contrasting timeline offered by Louis and a 1:00am arrival requires that all other accounts were incorrect. Not the most logical position to take a stand on...nor stable....but, here we are.

                      People do it here all the time, just look at an MJK thread.
                      No there isn’t. Louis arriving at 12.45 is simply a non-starter, categorically dismissed by at least 11 witnesses. Standing in a minority of one perhaps you should ask yourself why everyone disagrees with your position Michael? And why the police at the time accepted the 1.00 discovery time? There should come a time when it’s accepted that ‘everyone can’t be wrong.’

                      That the body was found by Diemschitz at around 1.00 is a fact backed by the evidence. Two witnesses making dodgy guesses and an imaginary plot to excuse them will never change that.
                      Regards

                      Sir Herlock Sholmes.

                      “A house of delusions is cheap to build but draughty to live in.”

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Herlock Sholmes View Post

                        And make it easy enough for those of us who are statistically and diagrammatically illiterate to understand. Basically.. me.

                        PS. What do you think about my speculated explanation of the Kozebrodsky with Diemschitz/ Kozebrodsky with Eagle episode?
                        Hi Herlock,

                        When I was putting the simulation together, I struggled with trying to work out if we had sequential or parallel runners (as being discussed above). In the simulation I went with sequential, in part because that might be viewed as a the "most challenging" to the notion of a 1:00am discovery time. In the simulation, basing interval estimations using the table, and movement times based upon measurement of distance and average speeds, I think with sequential things worked out to Diemshutz arriving around 12:57 or 12:58 type thing (time here referenced to Dr. Blackwell's watch). And it is not unreasonable to allow for a 2 to 3 minute difference between Deimshutz's clock and Dr. Blackwell's watch, so a sequential version works fine. Sequential brings Spooner to the yard before the search that finds Lamb starts, while Parallel shortens the gap, but both estimated intervals fall in the accepted range given he estimates a 5 minute gap. Parallel runners would bring Diemshutz's arrival forward a couple minutes, to a discovery time of 1:00. As such, both scenarios are consistent with the testimony. There's a bit of confusion in the statements as to what exactly happened, but the run along Fairclough and back (bringing Spooner) does not take very long (a couple minutes), and trying to work things out as we are always involves some estimations with error ranges, and given the number of events, the margins of error can easily account for a small event of a couple of minutes.

                        So, I think it is possible that the search for Lamb may have started after the search along Fairclough allowing K to be in both, but there are other statements that suggest they started about the same time, which then requires working out how K joins up with search for Lamb. Either the Commercial search initially went west on Commercial, allowing K to catch up (but going west should have found PC Smith, so that would need explaining), or something else (sequential searches is one something else; K abandoning the Fairclough search and returning, then catching up with Eagle is another; Eagle initially heading at a fast walk, so he could look down side streets, only running when K joins up maybe another). There was clearly confusion at the time (hardly surprising), and the statements we have are not precise enough for us to work out every detail.

                        We know the Fairclough run occurs around 1:00 as Brown says he heard the men at that time. I think Fanny says she ends up coming outside upon hearing commotion at the club, but I don't recall if she states an actual time or if it's one of those "shortly after that I heard ...." type statements that are so frustrating to work with because we can't build with it, but of course still end up having to evaluate if her statements makes sense (those statements are like administrators, they will criticize but not contribute! ha ha).

                        In the end, given how short the Fairclough search run would take, and given how soft the measurements we have are (lots of error is associated with everything we have), we don't need to get every last detail exactly right. Both versions work within acceptable limits of our statement reliabilities, and other statements place both searches around 1:00ish, so whether they happened in sequence or in parallel might be getting to a level of detail that is beyond the resolution we are capable of.

                        - Jeff

                        Comment


                        • Hi Michael,

                          Originally posted by Michael W Richards View Post

                          Just so its not overlooked, if Lamb had arrived and the first "doctor" arrived on the scene at 1:10, that works just fine too. Lamb does not mention Johnson already being there, he just reflects on when he was first aware that a doctor was there.
                          I'm not sure I understand what you're suggesting here in that 2nd sentence? Are you suggesting it may have been possible for Johnson, the doctor's assistant, to already be at the scene when PC Lamb arrived, and that Lamb only noticed Johnson some time later? But given PC Lamb sent for the doctor, and Johnson was the doctor's assistant, Johnson has to arrive after PC Lamb.

                          Ive followed the posts and I see the same kind of favouring a bad leg kind of attitude in the rhetoric....if it troubles someone to see something from one perspective, they just revert to something more comfortable for them. However, there exists both witnesses and a viable timeline for Louis to have been there around 12:45, but favour that bad leg if you must. The contrasting timeline offered by Louis and a 1:00am arrival requires that all other accounts were incorrect. Not the most logical position to take a stand on...nor stable....but, here we are.

                          People do it here all the time, just look at an MJK thread.
                          I'm unfamiliar with the metaphor of "favouring a bad leg", so not quite sure what you're getting at. As you're following the thread, you will no doubt have noticed how well the testimonies fit together so far. Of course, at this point we're just looking at the segement from Deimshutz's arrival at 1 up to the arrival of the Doctor at 1:16.

                          What works so far is that the searches along Fairclough and Commercial both appear to have occurred around 1:00ish (a few minutes after 1), which fits with Brown's statement of hearing the men on Fairclough around 1:00. Also, it gets Spooner at the scene before PC Lamb arrives, and the estimated gap between Spooner and PC Lamb's arrival is in an acceptable range given he estimated 5 minutes. Moreover, PC Lamb's arrival time is also roughly 10 minutes before the Doctor's arrival. All of that testimony fits together really well.

                          We have Brown, who estimates a 15 minute gap between his potential Stride sighting and hearing the commotion on Fairclough. If we work backwards from our estimated "Fairclough search time", that's going to place Brown's sighting somewhere around 12:48 ish I think, which certainly fits with his estimated time of 12:45 for the sighting. So no conflict there. And if that means Stride is on Fairclough at 12:48ish, it would explain why Fanny doesn't recall seeing her, particularly if Fanny has gone inside by then. While her statements are all over the show, it is clear she wasn't outside for "nearly the whole time" between 12:30 and 1:00, as she would have had to see the murder occur, would have seen Deimshutz arrive no matter what time that was, and so forth. Lave, as above, seems to have been in club yard, probably around 12:35-12:40 ish, so wouldn't have seen much in the street, and wouldn't be visible, although he does say he went as far as the gate, but a few seconds of opportunity is nothing and he just says there was nothing to arouse his suspicions, not that the street was deserted. So he fits fine.

                          PC Smith does not hear the commotion of the searches that occur shortly after 1:00, so he can't be at the corner of Berner and Commercial at the time the searches started. His beat does take him to the west, as far as Gower, and if he's in that portion of his beat at the time it is quite possible he would not have heard the calls from the men. It also puts him in a location that would get him to the scene after PC Lamb is there. A difference between PC Smith's reference clock and Dr. Blackwell's watch (which the above times are sort of "locked" to) of a few minutes would hardly be unexpected, so there's nothing problematic there really.

                          Anyway, given how many different witnesses are being incorporated above, I'm not sure I understand you when you say that Louis arriving at 1:00 requires all other witnesses to be incorrect. What the above is showing is that a discovery time of around 1:00 is entirely consistent with these witnesses accounts.

                          - Jeff

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by The Rookie Detective View Post

                            Jeff


                            This is a most excellent concept.

                            It shows us the data in a more illustrative manner and makes it all feel more contextually relevant and instantly more accessible to anyone wanting a more generalized summary of the known data.

                            The next step could be to apply the same process to all of the other witnesses, and then if technically possible, to run them on top of each other simultaneously.

                            It would then highlight any discrepancies with the chronological timeline more visually


                            What I find interesting from looking at Lave; is that it appears that the most likely time he was outside was between 12.30am - 12.45am (based on you clock system)

                            But that is unlikely because he saw and heard nothing of interest...and nobody saw him.




                            RD
                            Thanks RD, but the clock presentation idea was Wickerman's, not mine. I just stole it

                            And yes, the idea is to try and summarize all the coverages of each witness, so each witness gets a clock. That way, we can visualize all of the reports of a witness in one image, and hopefully try and work out how to best condense it all, or to detect outlier reports (the odd one out, like the 12:30-1:00 report for Lave). Outlier reports would reflect some sort of error having been made making it unreliable.

                            The next step would then be to try and compare between witnesses who describe the same event, although there really aren't a lot of those, there are some. Doing that we may be able to narrow down the time stamp of a given event, and also detect any outlier witness statements.

                            The final step would be to try and stitch together the events in sequence and see what is produced.

                            But all of that requires a lot of work, so don't hold your breath!

                            - Jeff

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by JeffHamm View Post

                              Hi Herlock,

                              When I was putting the simulation together, I struggled with trying to work out if we had sequential or parallel runners (as being discussed above). In the simulation I went with sequential, in part because that might be viewed as a the "most challenging" to the notion of a 1:00am discovery time. In the simulation, basing interval estimations using the table, and movement times based upon measurement of distance and average speeds, I think with sequential things worked out to Diemshutz arriving around 12:57 or 12:58 type thing (time here referenced to Dr. Blackwell's watch). And it is not unreasonable to allow for a 2 to 3 minute difference between Deimshutz's clock and Dr. Blackwell's watch, so a sequential version works fine. Sequential brings Spooner to the yard before the search that finds Lamb starts, while Parallel shortens the gap, but both estimated intervals fall in the accepted range given he estimates a 5 minute gap. Parallel runners would bring Diemshutz's arrival forward a couple minutes, to a discovery time of 1:00. As such, both scenarios are consistent with the testimony. There's a bit of confusion in the statements as to what exactly happened, but the run along Fairclough and back (bringing Spooner) does not take very long (a couple minutes), and trying to work things out as we are always involves some estimations with error ranges, and given the number of events, the margins of error can easily account for a small event of a couple of minutes.

                              So, I think it is possible that the search for Lamb may have started after the search along Fairclough allowing K to be in both, but there are other statements that suggest they started about the same time, which then requires working out how K joins up with search for Lamb. Either the Commercial search initially went west on Commercial, allowing K to catch up (but going west should have found PC Smith, so that would need explaining), or something else (sequential searches is one something else; K abandoning the Fairclough search and returning, then catching up with Eagle is another; Eagle initially heading at a fast walk, so he could look down side streets, only running when K joins up maybe another). There was clearly confusion at the time (hardly surprising), and the statements we have are not precise enough for us to work out every detail.

                              We know the Fairclough run occurs around 1:00 as Brown says he heard the men at that time. I think Fanny says she ends up coming outside upon hearing commotion at the club, but I don't recall if she states an actual time or if it's one of those "shortly after that I heard ...." type statements that are so frustrating to work with because we can't build with it, but of course still end up having to evaluate if her statements makes sense (those statements are like administrators, they will criticize but not contribute! ha ha).

                              In the end, given how short the Fairclough search run would take, and given how soft the measurements we have are (lots of error is associated with everything we have), we don't need to get every last detail exactly right. Both versions work within acceptable limits of our statement reliabilities, and other statements place both searches around 1:00ish, so whether they happened in sequence or in parallel might be getting to a level of detail that is beyond the resolution we are capable of.

                              - Jeff
                              Hi Jeff,

                              I certainly, at the moment, favour Eagle beginning his search later than Diemschitz because I struggle to get around Kozebrodsky stating unequivocally that he went with both men although the only other alternative explanation that I can currently come up with in this locked room-type mystery is that Eagle’s search was somehow delayed, allowing Koz to be told about Eagle on his return and then catch up with him before he got to Lamb. This is in the territory of Frank’s ‘did he first turn left on Commercial Road’ suggestion and is in line with the report(s) of the search initially being unsuccessful.

                              No definitive answer Jeff.
                              Regards

                              Sir Herlock Sholmes.

                              “A house of delusions is cheap to build but draughty to live in.”

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                              • Originally posted by Herlock Sholmes View Post
                                ....

                                So several members have got there before him and are probably crowding around the body. A few seconds later Eagle gets to see the body by striking a match. He sees the blood and decides to go for a Constable. It’s now a couple of minutes after Diemschitz had gone with Kozebrodski. As Eagle gets to the gate Diemschitz, Kozebrodsky and Spooner return. They tell Eagle that they haven’t found a Constable so Eagle says that he’ll try in Commercial Road. Kozebrodski goes with him and he and Eagle meet Lamb in Commercial Road.

                                It covers the facts as far as I can see.
                                Hi Mike.
                                Some months back we had a thread on the question of who was "Isaac", and we went through this same problem, if I understand you (above), you have reached the same conclusion I did.

                                Basically, Diemschutz finds the body, goes inside, up stairs, brings Kozebrodski back with him to the body. They both run for a constable as individuals but, in the same direction, east along Fairclough.
                                Spooner saw two Jews come running towards him, and Brown heard shouts from men running about the same time.

                                Eagle came out of the club some few minutes later, he saw neither Diem. nor Koz. they had left, and Eagle left for a constable up on Commercial Rd.
                                Diem., Koz & Spooner returned to Berner St. - Koz. ran past the club up to Comm. Rd.
                                Diem & Spooner stopped at the yard, this is where Wess was confused (re: Echo & Scotsman article) he assumed the two men who returned had been the same two that left - he noted that one (Spooner) was not a club member, but it had been Koz. who left with Diem. not Spooner.

                                Koz. found Eagle in Comm. Rd. - the time difference could be explained by Eagle first running west to find a constable, then turned back to run east where he met PC Lamb & another PC.
                                Eagle may have missed seeing PC Smith because his beat took him up Back Church Lane to Comm. Rd. (Morning Advertiser, 6 Oct.) which is why they missed each other, so Eagle had to turn and run east, which gave Koz. time to catch up with him just as he found PC Lamb.
                                Last edited by Wickerman; 04-11-2024, 08:04 PM.
                                Regards, Jon S.

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