The Schwartz/BS Man situation - My opinion only

[Michael W Richards]

Hi Michael,

In your post #622, you point out:

"You mentioned Spooner arrived about 5 minutes before the police, but neglected to mention that with Lambs statement he was there shortly before 1am, that puts Spooner there around 12:40-1245 with everyone else..as he said. Just like Issac Kozebrodski said. And as Heschberg stated, and as the Arbeter Fraint reported."

And again, if we go with Lamb's "shortly before 1am" then Spooner's 5 minutes, that places Spooner's arrival shortly before 12:55, no where near 12:40 and well off 12:45.

For what it's worth, I've started looking at some research into the accuracy of people's ability to estimate durations of events from memory, which is what Spooner is doing of course. From work by Yarmey (2000), for short intervals (as in under 20 minutes type thing), the time they give tends to over estimate the actual duration. So, I've used their data to go backwards, take a given estimate and work out how long the actual interval would probably be. And for 5 minutes, that works out to about 3m 40s (3m 37s to be precise). In the figures below, you can see the time (converted to seconds) of the average estimation of the event on the horizontal axis, and the vertical shows the duration of the actual event (since their data spans out to a lot of events much longer than what we're looking at, I've show the full set in the A figure, and B just zooms in to show the function fits well for the values we're looking at - 300s, or 5 minute estimation). Shorter durations tend to get over estimated, and longer durations tend to be under estimated. It should, of course, not be forgotten that these represent averages over many people, individuals vary widely.



We're dealing with an individual, and how one chooses to do that follows one of three options.
Option 1). Given we know nothing about the individual's ability, we use the population average as our best guess. That means, Spooner's 5 minutes before Lamb represents an actual arrival of roughly 3m 40 seconds prior to Lamb.

Option 2). Given we know nothing about the individuals ability, given the large variation associated with the group average, we should not pick a value at all.

Option 3). Given we know nothing about the individuals ability, let's look at the range of values from which they are likely to come from.

Option 1, places Spooner even closer to Lamb, and so even closer to "Shortly before 1 am", moving him even further from the window you place him in. Option 2 doesn't allow you to place him anywhere. Option 3 would mean that a range of values even closer to Lamb (so a duration of even less than 3m 40s) has to be considered valid, out to some upper value. For an estimation of 5 minutes, that range would be as short as 2m 9s out to about 11m 9s. And the upper end of that range still doesn't include 1:45 (as the combination of Lamb and Spooner's statements would mean Spooner arrived "shortly before 1:49").

That, of course, means you have to argue about the value of "shortly before", which isn't a numerical value, so that you can translate that to be at least 4 minutes, and now it would get Spooner to 1:45, but not 1:40. To cover 1:40, "shortly" would have to translate to 9 minutes.

But you wouldn't do that because you're arguing against people "shifting the stated values to suit". That leaves you in the position of having to argue that Spooner is one of those 2.5% of cases, where his estimate of 5 minutes before Lamb actually represents a real duration more than our upper cutoff from Option 3, because it needs to be around 15-20 minutes of actual duration. That is, of course, entirely possible. It's also improbable, to the tune of having about 2.5% chance of being true.

- Jeff

The actual time Spooner arrives isnt a huge problem for me, I could see that being between 12:45 and 12:55.. which is when I believe Lamb sees the men. Spooner is in the situation of having to estimate an interval between leaving the pub and arriving at the Beehive as well as how long they stood there, so his estimate could be off a few minutes easily. However 2 men came from inside the club and would have had access to a clock, and they said 12:40, not 12:40 ish, or around 12:40. Spooner also says that men were there around the body when he arrives, that would be the case if men were there at 12:40 wouldnt it?

The larger picture here is that based on the cumulative statements of Lamb, Spooner, Issac K and Heschberg, Louis and others were by the dying woman at least 15 minutes before Louis claimed to have arrived. Lamb was summoned before 1am. That indicates a search party for help going out at least 5 minutes prior, and Issac K says he met up with that party which included Eagle, when Eagle and Lamb were returning to the club. All before 1am.

So why would Louis say he arrived at 1? Why would Lave and Eagle not acknowledge they saw each other in the passageway, or anyone else gathered there? Why would Eagle not say unequivocally that he didnt have to side step around a dying woman? I believe they all tried to create an illusion of emptiness for that passageway at around 12:40-12:45, (even though its highly probable based on the other statements that it was far from empty, and remember Blackwells estimate of her earliest cut time is around 12:46...Phillips later suggested as early as 12:30...) If no-one was there at that time, then her killer must have come from elsewhere, because he and her must have entered after that time. That was their logic. Israel is after thought insurance for leaving that impression.

The "conspiracy" then was by the paid staff members alone, and was to preserve their jobs and prevent further anti immigrant jew mania across London. As you will recall, it was at this point in time house to house searches were taking place in the Jewish parts of the East End, and it seemed that the conclusion of the police was that the murders were by an immigrant jew and that none of the other jews would testify against him. Would the International Club contain people that might be fearful of such an anti-Semitic wave?

Almost all who attended it. Certainly the ones who made their living there.

[Herlock Sholmes]

. However 2 men came from inside the club and would have had access to a clock

I have access to the tin of soup in my cupboard. Does that mean I’ve eaten the soup?

I have access to the documentary that I recorded on Monday. Does that mean that I’ve already watched it?

We’ve had this kind of ‘thinking’ from others. Just because there was a clock in the club it doesn’t automatically follow that they saw it anytime near to the event. The fact that Hoschberg said “about” and “I should think” tells us quite plainly that he wasn’t going by a clock but estimating. And we don’t know how long ago that he’d seen a clock to have made that estimation.

Two men give timing estimations that don’t match the other witnesses. They were both in the yard when the police were there. I suspect that one asked the other what the time was when they’d first seen the body. Or that one heard the other being questioned by the police.

Either way, 12.45 was blatantly wrong.

[Herlock Sholmes]

.
The larger picture here is that based on Lamb, Spooner, Issac K and Heschberg, Louis and others were by the dying woman at least 15 minutes before Louis claimed to have arrived. Lamb was summoned before 1am. That indicates a search party for help going out at least 5 minutes prior, and Issac K says he met up with that party which included Eagle, when Eagle and Lamb were returning to the club. All before 1am.

More dishonesty.

Lamb said “around 1.00” or “just before 1.00.” This isn’t exact and between 12.55 and 1.00 is likelier by far than between 12.45 and 12.55. And even then it simply cannot be impossible that he might have been out in his estimate by 5 minutes or so.

Spooner arrived 5 minutes before Lamb.

Louis said 1.00.

His wife said 1.00.

The club servants said 1.00.

Wess said 1.00.

Minsky said 1.00.

Eagle said 1.00.

Gilleman said 1.00.

And again Michael I’ll ask the question……IF FANNY MORTIMER WENT ONTO HER DOORSTEP AT 12.45 AS YOU’VE REPEATEDLY CLAIMED HOW COME SHE NEITHER SAW OR HEARD ANY OF THIS COMMOTION IN THE YARD AT 12.45? HOW COME SHE DIDNT SEE OR HEAR DIEMSCHUTZ ARRIVING BACK BEFORE 12.45.

No matter how much you wriggle or manipulate your laughable cover up falls.

Do the decent thing and give it up. At least save a little face.

[NotBlamedForNothing]

Either way, 12.45 was blatantly wrong.

It's a little odd that Herschburg didn't look at clock before he "came down" to the gateway. Perhaps he'd been on the street?

[NotBlamedForNothing]

Spooner arrived 5 minutes before Lamb.

And about 5 minutes after Louis. So when did Smith arrive? About 1:12?

Louis said 1.00.

His wife said 1.00.

The club servants said 1.00.

Wess said 1.00.

Minsky said 1.00.

Eagle said 1.00.

Gilleman said 1.00.

You forgot one. Fanny said just after one.

By the way, wasn't Wess at home by 1:00?

C: How do you know that you finally left at a quarter-past twelve o'clock?
W: Because of the time when I reached my lodgings.

Are you cooking up a new conspiracy theory?

[Herlock Sholmes]

.
The conspiracy then was by the paid staff members alone, and was to preserve their jobs and prevent further anti immigrant jew mania across London

So the first thought of these club members after finding the murdered woman was “ oh damn, the ripper has struck again! The police will obviously blame us for hosting the Whitechapel murderer for a ‘one night only’ performance. They’ll close us down what shall we do? Shall we just move the body? No….too obvious. Shall we claim to have have seen and heard the killer escaping…..no too simple. I know we’ll find someone who can’t speak English to relate a story of a verbal insult and just hope to luck that no one was able to disprove this and that no one saw Louis get back before 1.00.”

It never ceases to raise a chuckle when I think how an experience Ripperologist can even begin to believe this fantasy. Of course there’s a difference between believing something and needing it to be true.

[Herlock Sholmes]

It's a little odd that Herschburg didn't look at clock before he "came down" to the gateway. Perhaps he'd been on the street?

Not odd at all. If someone says “there’s a body in the yard” the natural response is just to head to it. Not to think “hold on, I better check the time first so that I can give an accurate time when I’m questioned by the Police. After all, we wouldn’t want crackpots in a 100 years time getting the wrong end of the stick would we?”

[Herlock Sholmes]

And about 5 minutes after Louis. So when did Smith arrive? About 1:12?

[/

As I’ve repeatedly said we shouldn’t try to reverse engineer events by narrow times.

Louis 1.00/ Lamb 1.05/ Smith 1.06

or

Louis 1.00/ Lamb 1.04/ Smith 1.05

or even

Louis 12.59/ Lamb 12.03/ Smith 1.04

……

Louis at 12.44 or 12.45 just doesn’t work.

[NotBlamedForNothing]

Not odd at all. If someone says “there’s a body in the yard” the natural response is just to head to it. Not to think “hold on, I better check the time first so that I can give an accurate time when I’m questioned by the Police. After all, we wouldn’t want crackpots in a 100 years time getting the wrong end of the stick would we?”

Yes, I'd forgotten that Herschburg's mother had said...

Abraham, apparently there's a body in lying in Dutfield's Yard. Can you go down there and see what the matter is?

Actually, he was alerted to the situation by a police whistle, which was blown by a WVC man. Those guys were everywhere. Joseph Koster was near to the murder scene, at the time of the murder. Herschburg knew Koster. Where was Herschburg when he heard the whistle? Come to think of it, where was Mr Harris? There were three Harris's in the WVC, that we know of. Surely not?

[Michael W Richards]

More dishonesty.

Lamb said “around 1.00” or “just before 1.00.” This isn’t exact and between 12.55 and 1.00 is likelier by far than between 12.45 and 12.55. And even then it simply cannot be impossible that he might have been out in his estimate by 5 minutes or so.

Spooner arrived 5 minutes before Lamb.

Louis said 1.00.

His wife said 1.00.

The club servants said 1.00.

Wess said 1.00.

Minsky said 1.00.

Eagle said 1.00.

Gilleman said 1.00.

And again Michael I’ll ask the question……IF FANNY MORTIMER WENT ONTO HER DOORSTEP AT 12.45 AS YOU’VE REPEATEDLY CLAIMED HOW COME SHE NEITHER SAW OR HEARD ANY OF THIS COMMOTION IN THE YARD AT 12.45? HOW COME SHE DIDNT SEE OR HEAR DIEMSCHUTZ ARRIVING BACK BEFORE 12.45.

No matter how much you wriggle or manipulate your laughable cover up falls.

Do the decent thing and give it up. At least save a little face.

Ive never said once that Fanny was at her door at 12:45, maybe thats someone else your arguing with. I have said, because Fanny said it, that she was at her door from 12:50 until 1 which is why she saw Leon and why she didnt see Louis arrive.

And stop trying to bolster your own perceptions by questioning statements that are made by the police concerning timings. Youve been told oh so many times that ONLY the police had a mandate to watch their times all shift long. Lamb said he saw the men before 1am, that means Eagle and Kozebroski had been out looking before that time, which means they were out on the street well before Louis even says he arrives.

Your lack of comprehension doesnt equate to any errors on my part with this, youve simply thrown away whatever statements you want to and suggested that everyone else except for the staff was incorrect, or do you think the multiple witnesses purposely lied? Not sure what youve decided about that question.

[Michael W Richards]

As I’ve repeatedly said we shouldn’t try to reverse engineer events by narrow times.

Louis 1.00/ Lamb 1.05/ Smith 1.06

or

Louis 1.00/ Lamb 1.04/ Smith 1.05

or even

Louis 12.59/ Lamb 12.03/ Smith 1.04

……

Louis at 12.44 or 12.45 just doesn’t work.

Since there are witnesses that say they were by Louis, in the passageway, at 12:40....yep, that means that Louis didnt arrive at that time. It means he was there at that time.

[Michael W Richards]

I have access to the tin of soup in my cupboard. Does that mean I’ve eaten the soup?

I have access to the documentary that I recorded on Monday. Does that mean that I’ve already watched it?

We’ve had this kind of ‘thinking’ from others. Just because there was a clock in the club it doesn’t automatically follow that they saw it anytime near to the event. The fact that Hoschberg said “about” and “I should think” tells us quite plainly that he wasn’t going by a clock but estimating. And we don’t know how long ago that he’d seen a clock to have made that estimation.

Two men give timing estimations that don’t match the other witnesses. They were both in the yard when the police were there. I suspect that one asked the other what the time was when they’d first seen the body. Or that one heard the other being questioned by the police.

Either way, 12.45 was blatantly wrong.

That last line is a fine epitaph for your arrogance, should frame it. Issac K said he returned at 12:30, or half past, and 10 minutes later he was summoned. I guess your argument is that he didnt check a clock either, or that he couldnt read a clock, or that he was brain damaged and got times wrong by 20 minutes or so all the time. Anyone of those, with the proof, would be some evidence to support your banal "everyone is wrong but the guys I support" arguments, but since you obviously dont have such evidence, you believe your opinion is enough to satisfy us. It isnt, you havent the cred.

[Herlock Sholmes]

Ive never said once that Fanny was at her door at 12:45, maybe thats someone else your arguing with. I have said, because Fanny said it, that she was at her door from 12:50 until 1 which is why she saw Leon and why she didnt see Louis arrive.

And stop trying to bolster your own perceptions by questioning statements that are made by the police concerning timings. Youve been told oh so many times that ONLY the police had a mandate to watch their times all shift long. Lamb said he saw the men before 1am, that means Eagle and Kozebroski had been out looking before that time, which means they were out on the street well before Louis even says he arrives.

Your lack of comprehension doesnt equate to any errors on my part with this, youve simply thrown away whatever statements you want to and suggested that everyone else except for the staff was incorrect, or do you think the multiple witnesses purposely lied? Not sure what youve decided about that question.

It’s like wrestling an eel.

Ok so Fanny was at her door from 12.50 an that’s why she didn’t see Schwartz.

Give up.

Youre an embarrassment.

[Herlock Sholmes]

That last line is a fine epitaph for your arrogance, should frame it. Issac K said he returned at 12:30, or half past, and 10 minutes later he was summoned. I guess your argument is that he didnt check a clock either, or that he couldnt read a clock, or that he was brain damaged and got times wrong by 20 minutes or so all the time. Anyone of those, with the proof, would be some evidence to support your banal "everyone is wrong but the guys I support" arguments, but since you obviously dont have such evidence, you believe your opinion is enough to satisfy us. It isnt, you havent the cred.

Childishly simple to answer.

Why doesn’t this ‘must have seen a clock’ rule apply to Eagle?

Try honesty for change.

[Herlock Sholmes]

Since there are witnesses that say they were by Louis, in the passageway, at 12:40....yep, that means that Louis didnt arrive at that time. It means he was there at that time.

2 rogue witnesses against around 10.

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