The Schwartz/BS Man situation - My opinion only

[NotBlamedForNothing]

I think that basing the timings around PC Smith's beat is arguably the most reliable timeframe and gives the highest chance of consistency.

I agree with your summary of Smith's timings



RD

Just to be clear I'm not saying Smith's timings are to be preferred, rather I'm considering a few different scenarios, based on police time vs Diemschitz/Mortimer time. Instead of going through everything again, I'll summarize.

- Had Smith been at the top of Berner St at 1am, Diemschitz must necessarily arrive several minutes earlier. This pushes everything else back in time. The 'danger' becomes that Goldstein is then set to clash with Schwartz.

- If Smith is moved forward in time from his own timings to a beat of ~12:40-01:07/8, then the story of a woman being on her doorstep from just before 12:45, would seem to be within a few minutes of GMT. This scenario reduces the plausibility of the events described by Schwartz, from occurring in the following ten or so minutes.

[Fiver]

Lave is certainly an interesting character, and in sense he is the anti-Schwartz, which explains why almost all Schwartz believers are very reluctant to discuss him, other than to dismiss him.

Lave contradicts more than just Schwartz. He contradicts Mortimer, Goldstein, Brown, Eagle, Hershberg, Kozebrodsky, Spooner, and PC Smith.

[Fiver]

I would say that the beat policemen had responsibility to know their beat times, so Lamb is as viable as Blackwell. As is Smith.

Blackwell gave a precise time, looking at his watch. Lamb gave an estimate.

"Constable Henry Lamb, 252 H division, examined by the coroner, said: Last Sunday morning, shortly before one o'clock, I was on duty in Commercial-road, between Christian-street and Batty-street, when two men came running towards me and shouting." - 3 October 1888 Daily Telegraph.

"Police-constable Henry Lamb, 252 H, who said: At about one o'clock on Sunday morning last I was in Commercial-road between Christian-street and Batty-street, when two men came running to me, shouting." - 3 October 1888 Daily News.

"Police-constable Henry Lamb said that on Sunday morning when he was in Commercial-road, at about 1 o'clock, two men came to him shouting out that there had been another horrible murder." - 6 October 1888 East London Advertiser.

"Police-constable Henry Lamb, 252 H, deposed - About one o'clock on Sunday morning last I was in Commercial-road, between Christian-street and Batty-street. Two men came running to me shouting something.' - 3 October 1888 Morning Advertiser.

"Police-constable Henry Lamb, 252 H, deposed as follows: - About 1 o'clock, as near as I can tell, on Sunday morning I was in the Commercial-road, between Christian-street and Batty-street. Two men came running towards me." - 3 October 1888 Times.

Four accounts say "about" One account says "before".

Why should we assume that one paper got it right and four papers got it wrong? In the majority of sources, PC Lamb supports Diemshutz' timing.

[Fiver]

The other accounts require your "wiggle room" adjusting to work...so good luck wiggling around the fact that by Louis's times given his story starts 20 minutes later than those majority of witnesses reported.

You have repeatedly made this claim, but it is still wrong.

PC Lamb, Johnston, and Mortimer support Diemschutz, his wife, Eagle, Minsky, and West that the body was found around 1am.

Hershberg and Kozebrodsky give an early discovery story that the body was found 15 to 20 minutes before 1am. Kozebrodsky was a member of the club. Apparently he didn't get the Conspiracy memo.

Spooner gives a time that contradicts everybody, placing the discovery 10 or more minutes before anyone else and 5 to 10 minutes before PC Smith saw her alive. Spooner doesn't just contradict Smith. He contradicts Hershberg and Kozebrodsky. He contradicts Brown. He contradicts Schwartz. He contradicts Mortimer. He contradicts Goldstein. He contradicts Diemschutz, Eagle, West, Lamb, and Johnston. Spooner even contradicts Spooner.

[Fiver]

Was he specifically searched for?

Like the many other men I mentioned, this man was searched for and not found.

"Two men came along while the body was being placed on the ambulance. With the exception of a man who passed Bucks-row while the doctor was there, these two men, who came from a slaughter-house near, were the first to arrive on the scene. They were on their way home from their work." PC Neil, 1 September 1888 Globe.

"In answer to the CORONER, Inspector Abberline said they were unable to find the man who passed down Buck's-row while the doctor was examining the body." 18 September 1888 Times

[Michael W Richards]

Hey Michael,

The half hour lapse was just an exaggerated example of what some people may have experienced at times. And I never said all the timepieces were synchronized.

"And suggesting the all the stories that dont agree with Louis time are wrong isnt an argument. Its a subjective take on the matter." - agree, I never said the stories were wrong. Only the times many have been.

If I mis-characterized you Scott, of course my apologies. I take umbrage when I see what are substantial amounts of variance in times dismissed due to...well, whatever one might like to suggest. My point is and always has been here is that when the witnesses with the most to lose that night are set aside, there is a timeline that is consistent given by a group of witnesses and its remarkably close in timing from all sources. There is a reasonable case for the men to have been alerted to the body around 12:40-12:45 if only based on the times given by the authorities. Lamb back at the gate with Eagle and Issac at "just before", or at, 1am.....the earlier discovery allows for that time to kept, Johnson at 1:10....having received the news, alerted Dr Blackwell, dressed and sped down to Berner St,.... maybe 10 minutes from the time he first got the call?,...and Blackwell at 1:16, who you noted was wearing a watch.

Those time work just fine as is, but with an earlier discovery than reported by the club staff. Without any major adjustments, and with a five minute buffer shall we say. Louis Diemshitz stated, pointedly, that he believed he arrived at 1am. 3 witnesses stated that they were alerted to the situation around 12:40-12:45, and the subsequent times given by the authorities work fine without any adjustments, or any estimates of accuracy. When Spooner is advised that he must have been in error on his timing, a timing that also matches the article in that later Arbeter Fraint... stating the discovery was at 12:45...it seems to me that he should have been taken more seriously. But we dont hear from Issac K on the stand, just in quotes taken that night. Where he stated he was summoned while inside the club for 10 minutes after returning to the club at 12:30. I cant recall for sure, but I believe he said he went in the front door.

Anyway, the crux is that there is a storyline that is kept by the times given by several unconnected witnesses which places the discovery time between 12:40 and 12:45. There is another storyline offered by the people who had direct financial connections to an operational club at that address which suggests a discovery time of 1am. PC Lambs time, Johnsons and Blackwells times as markers.....which of those storylines, as is, can meet the specified times established by these three markers?

[Scott Nelson]

Hey Michael,

The half hour lapse was just an exaggerated example of what some people may have experienced at times. And I never said all the timepieces were synchronized.

"And suggesting the all the stories that dont agree with Louis time are wrong isnt an argument. Its a subjective take on the matter." - agree, I never said the stories were wrong. Only the times many have been.

[Michael W Richards]

You have to decide for yourself how reliable Lave and any others would have been at the scene. Personally, I would give Lave quite a bit of leeway timewise and he could have easily missed others who came on the scene. Was he, for example, inebriated and off on his time estimate by up to half an hour or more? This is just an example that could also apply to others (not necessarily drunkenness) who came into the yard or the street alone.

Im not sure that suggesting subjective interpretation of how reliable anyone was here will get you anywhere Scott, what needs to be sorted out is the fact that the majority of witness statements, of those unaffiliated financially with the club, suggest a deserted street that last half hour and and being alerted to a body being in the passageway between 12:40 and 12:45. You feel that these people could be off by a half hour or more?...2 that came from inside the club, 1 of which had only just returned at a stated time of 12:30, and one more from outside the club whose estimated time lapse between leaving the pub on Commercial at midnight and seeing the men run for help from outside the Beehive, has him seeing the men around the same time the other witnesses said they were alerted to the body.

The real goods here are the times given by Smith, Lamb, Johnson and Blackwell. Last sighting by anyone of Liz before she is found wounded, first policeman at the scene, first medical man on the scene and senior medical man on the scene..as you mentioned, wearing a watch.

In order for Louis's stated arrival time...the time he said was "precise"..to be accurate all those 4 witnesses above had to be wrong on their times. Because simply put, Lamb could not have arrived just before or at 1am first with Eagle and now Kozebrodski joining them, if Louis actually first arrives at 1. We have the lit match story, the checking on the wife story, the calling up for help and men making their way to the alleyway to see whats up, then you have search parties going out and not finding anyone immediately...then Lambs sees Eagle and Koz joins them back to the gates...how much time for all that? I mean in real time, not in "how many people likely got the time wrong" time.

The answer is around 10-15 minutes. From the time Louis arrives until Eagle, Koz and Lamb return. If Louis arrived at 1, then Lamb would be first on the scene at 1:10-1:15, and no medical authority has been informed of this event yet. Eagle hasnt gone to the station to notify them yet. It means that Lamb actually arrived at 1:10-1:15 not "just before 1" as he claimed, and Johnson doesnt even get the call until around 1:20-25...yet he says he is there at 1:10, and Blackwell cannot be there until well after 1:30...yet the doctor... with the watch.... says 1:16. And Phillips is there at 1:30ish.

Suggesting all timepieces would be synchronized is ludicrous, as it is suggesting that Louis first arrived at 1am. We have a cohesive storyline leading right to Blackwell with times given by other witnesses, all of them need to be wrong so Louis can be right.

And suggesting the all the stories that dont agree with Louis time are wrong isnt an argument. Its a subjective take on the matter.

[Lewis C]

The period of Smith's beat was 25 to 30 minutes. If Smith was last in Berner St between 12:30 and 12:35, he is going to be back there no later than 1:02/3, and as early as 12:57/8. Having Smith arrive even at the latest time, is going to be difficult if Deimschitz is regarded as arriving a minute or two before 1am. That is because Smith does not hear the calls for the police, or see the two police running to the yard from Commercial Rd.

Smith: At 1 o'clock I went to Berner-street in my ordinary round. I saw a crowd of people outside the gates of No. 40. I did not hear any cries of "Police." When I got there I saw constables 12 H R and 252 H.

So, Smith must be 2 minutes or more behind those PC's - it would take nearly that long to reach the yard from Commercial Rd, at beat pace. That would mean Lamb must reach the yard close to 1am - about 90 seconds after Diemschitz discovers the body, which is not possible. The only option then, given a discovery time of a minute or two before 1am, is to move Smith forward to about 12:38-40. You would then have to squeeze Schwartz into the short period between Fanny's lockup and Diemschitz arrival and suppose that although she is getting ready for bed in the ground floor front room, she does not hear anything as loud as the plod of Smith's boots.

Regarding the lockup-discovery interval, are you sure she said it was about 4 minutes? I regard that as being a calculation of the reporter, as opposed to a paraphrasing of the witness. Put it this way, have you ever heard anyone make an estimate of "about 4 minutes"?



Brown saw the couple on his way home from the chandler shop, not while going to it. Had this been the young couple, then we can get an idea of the time from the young couple report.

She had, she said, been standing there for about twenty minutes, talking with her sweetheart, but neither of them heard any unusual noises.

That would put Brown's round-trip, roughly in the 12:38-43 period.

Hi Andrew,

I liked Jeff's response to this, and I really don't have anything to add.

[Lewis C]

Hi Lewis,

That's true, she does say 4 minutes and the simulation gap is around 11m 24s. Based upon research about time duration estimations, an estimate of 4 minutes suggests the true duration falls between 1m 15s to 12m 31s. I think in the entire simulation, that is the largest difference between the stated duration (4 minutes) and the proposed one (11m 24s), while most end up being remarkably close, and this one is one of the few where the suggested true time might be longer than the stated. Given the large number of statements we have, we would expect most of the true times to be shorter, but we shouldn't be surprised if a few are longer (that's the nature of skewed distributions like this). When I put the simulation together, I was ok with the longish gap because it still fell within the expected ranges we could reasonably expect, and also because on the whole the simulation didn't have that happening frequently, so one or two cases of such a thing is probably ok. And also, considering that Fanny went inside presumably to prepare for bed, she was probably doing some last minute chores or lock up things, and so it seems to me it would be quite easy for more time to have passed than she recollects later. I could be wrong of course, as there's no way to know for sure so feel free to come to your own conclusions. The simulation is a "working hypothesis", not a "fact".

I agree that you could extend Fanny's doorstep time a bit, and also re-interpret how I've incorporated James Brown, such that the impact upon other witnesses is sufficiently reduced so as not to disturb the overall structure, so I can't say your suggestion is wrong. If we do that, it would broaden the window for Goldstein to walk by, and would still leave a gap sufficiently large for Fanny to have missed the Schwartz event (so there would still be room for that to occur). It would shift Schwartz a bit later, of course, which in turn increases the gap between his police statement of 12:45, so there becomes a bit of a trade off (reducing the gap with Fanny's 4 minute news report increases the gap with Schwartz's police statement; but I think both changes would still fall well within acceptable limits either way). So again, a bit of tweaking around the edges can be done, but I think the bigger picture remains more or less stable, and that's probably the most important thing in my view.

It is the fact we have multiple, slightly different, accounts from many of the witnesses that makes this such a challenging puzzle to work on. As I say, I do not suggest that the values I've used are the only ones that work. Rather, I simply suggest that based upon what we do have, something roughly like this would make sense of the information we have. One can play around a bit with the values I present, but I recommend that one take the time to consider what else changes in the bigger picture. Does making this bit fit slightly better make some other bit fit even worse? Which bit appears to be the more reliable source (personally, I put more weight on statements given to the police directly than statements someone made to the press; particularly when the press reports seem to reflect that person has said quite different things on different occasions!).

Anyway, I'm not suggesting you're wrong and that I'm right, only suggesting some things to think about.

- Jeff

Hi Jeff,

Thanks, that makes sense.

[JeffHamm]

Hi NBFN,

The period of Smith's beat was 25 to 30 minutes. If Smith was last in Berner St between 12:30 and 12:35, he is going to be back there no later than 1:02/3, and as early as 12:57/8. Having Smith arrive even at the latest time, is going to be difficult if Deimschitz is regarded as arriving a minute or two before 1am. That is because Smith does not hear the calls for the police, or see the two police running to the yard from Commercial Rd.

Based on that, then I think it would be no later than 1:05, given a 30 minute (the longer) beat and last in at 12:35 (the later time), and no earlier than 12:55, (the shorter beat combined with the earliest time).

However, those are times based upon PC Smith, who would not have access to Dr. Blackwell's watch. The times I mention are based upon trying to coordinate all the times to Dr. Blackwell's watch (what I refer to as "Blackwell Standard Time"; or BST). As a result, the BST times I mention will differ from "Witness Stated Time" (WST), but one wouldn't expect huge discrepancies between BST and WST.

Smith: At 1 o'clock I went to Berner-street in my ordinary round. I saw a crowd of people outside the gates of No. 40. I did not hear any cries of "Police." When I got there I saw constables 12 H R and 252 H.

So, Smith must be 2 minutes or more behind those PC's - it would take nearly that long to reach the yard from Commercial Rd, at beat pace. That would mean Lamb must reach the yard close to 1am - about 90 seconds after Diemschitz discovers the body, which is not possible. The only option then, given a discovery time of a minute or two before 1am, is to move Smith forward to about 12:38-40. You would then have to squeeze Schwartz into the short period between Fanny's lockup and Diemschitz arrival and suppose that although she is getting ready for bed in the ground floor front room, she does not hear anything as loud as the plod of Smith's boots.

PC Smith's statement "At 1 o'clock I went to Berner-street in my ordinary round." doesn't say he was "in" Berner-Street at 1, but that he "went to" Berner-Street. And while that isn't inconsistent with him being at the top of Berner Street, it also is consistent with him starting to head towards it from Gower (sp?), which in turn would require a couple minutes to get to the top of Berner-Street. And that interpretation starts to fit with his arrival at Berner around, 1:02 or 1:03ish, consistent with his previous estimate of his last patrol, and his patrol time.

And if he arrives a few minutes after the other PCs, which seems like the case, then by using the events up to their arrival, and tracing them back to Dr. Blackwell's arrival, we can then roughly estimate PC Smith's arrival in "BST", which are the times I mention, and why they might not correspond to values one calculates using WST.

Regarding the lockup-discovery interval, are you sure she said it was about 4 minutes? I regard that as being a calculation of the reporter, as opposed to a paraphrasing of the witness. Put it this way, have you ever heard anyone make an estimate of "about 4 minutes"?

Like everyone, I can't be sure of anything that is reported in the News papers is actually what the person said. But, it is all I have to work with. It may be as you say, something the reporter made up, or perhaps she had said something like "3 or 5 minutes", and the reporter reduced that to 4? Maybe she did indeed say 4, as odd as that may be. I don't know, but what I do have is a news report that says she estimated the interval to be 4 minutes.

If the reporter made it up, then that would remove the concern. If, however, she did estimate it at around 4 minutes (either by 3-5 type thing, or did actually say 4), then the simulation value of 11m 24s falls within the range we might expect. As I mentioned, it is a bit on the long side but it is acceptable. Given there are so many time durations that are being dealt with, it is not all that surprising that one or two of them would be further in the tails of the acceptable range. What actually surprised me when I went over everything was how rarely that happened (I think this is largest discrepancy in the simulation, and even that wasn't outside of the error ranges we expect).

Brown saw the couple on his way home from the chandler shop, not while going to it. Had this been the young couple, then we can get an idea of the time from the young couple report.

She had, she said, been standing there for about twenty minutes, talking with her sweetheart, but neither of them heard any unusual noises.

That would put Brown's round-trip, roughly in the 12:38-43 period.

Again, Brown's time and Dr. Blackwell's time are going to differ slightly. Because I was able to chain events involving the runners looking for the police back to Dr. Blackwell's arrival, I was able to tie in Brown based upon when they were in Fairclough in Blackwell time, and then work backwards based upon his 15 minute estimate to estimate his sighting of the couple also in Blackwell Standard Time (BST). And that estimated BST time, while not the same as what he states in "Brown Time", is not all that different and within the range of what we might expect given Brown is both estimating time and time stamping to a clock other than Blackwell's watch.

In short, what I was trying to do was align as much as I could to one standard clock, which is why the times I mention will not correspond exactly to the time stated by a witness other than Dr. Blackwell. Based upon the calculations and procedures I used, however, the adjustment from "witness time" to BST, generally was in the range of a few minutes. It was a lot of work but also a fun exercise that I was surprised to find produced a coherent series of events.

I probably should emphasize more that the times I refer to are the BST times, and not the WST, to avoid confusion.

- Jeff

[JeffHamm]

I think that basing the timings around PC Smith's beat is arguably the most reliable timeframe and gives the highest chance of consistency.

I agree with your summary of Smith's timings



RD

Personally, I would suggest that Dr. Blackwell, the only witness who testifies that his stated time is based upon looking at an actual time piece (his watch), is the most reliable information we have between an event (Dr. Blackwell's arrival at the crime scene) and an actual clock (in this case his watch). Everyone else either fails to mention any clock at all, or if they do, it is in reference to some point prior (I'm thinking here of Long's testimony of hearing chimes at some point prior to her sighting - so now we have to factor in both the time of her clock relative to other plus the error introduced by her having to estimate how long it was between her clock reading - the chimes - and the event she's talking about, in this case her sighting of possibly Annie and her killer).

We have nothing to indicate how PC Smith determined the time. I'm sure that somewhere on his beat he would consult a clock, but he doesn't tell us where that clock was. Moreover, we have no idea how similar that clock reads to any other clock people may have consulted.

As such, although I would tend to put a police officer ahead of "Joe Bloggs" in terms of reliability with regards to time, I would still hesitate to elevate them above Dr. Blackwell.

- Jeff

[The Rookie Detective]

The period of Smith's beat was 25 to 30 minutes. If Smith was last in Berner St between 12:30 and 12:35, he is going to be back there no later than 1:02/3, and as early as 12:57/8. Having Smith arrive even at the latest time, is going to be difficult if Deimschitz is regarded as arriving a minute or two before 1am. That is because Smith does not hear the calls for the police, or see the two police running to the yard from Commercial Rd.

Smith: At 1 o'clock I went to Berner-street in my ordinary round. I saw a crowd of people outside the gates of No. 40. I did not hear any cries of "Police." When I got there I saw constables 12 H R and 252 H.

So, Smith must be 2 minutes or more behind those PC's - it would take nearly that long to reach the yard from Commercial Rd, at beat pace. That would mean Lamb must reach the yard close to 1am - about 90 seconds after Diemschitz discovers the body, which is not possible. The only option then, given a discovery time of a minute or two before 1am, is to move Smith forward to about 12:38-40. You would then have to squeeze Schwartz into the short period between Fanny's lockup and Diemschitz arrival and suppose that although she is getting ready for bed in the ground floor front room, she does not hear anything as loud as the plod of Smith's boots.

Regarding the lockup-discovery interval, are you sure she said it was about 4 minutes? I regard that as being a calculation of the reporter, as opposed to a paraphrasing of the witness. Put it this way, have you ever heard anyone make an estimate of "about 4 minutes"?



Brown saw the couple on his way home from the chandler shop, not while going to it. Had this been the young couple, then we can get an idea of the time from the young couple report.

She had, she said, been standing there for about twenty minutes, talking with her sweetheart, but neither of them heard any unusual noises.

That would put Brown's round-trip, roughly in the 12:38-43 period.

I think that basing the timings around PC Smith's beat is arguably the most reliable timeframe and gives the highest chance of consistency.

I agree with your summary of Smith's timings



RD

[NotBlamedForNothing]

Hi Jeff,

That's a very good explanation. I wasn't clear when I referred to "moving Fanny", but I was referring to moving when she closed her door only. Your timeline has her at her door 12:39-12:47, but she estimated she was at her door for 10 minutes, so if the end time were moved to 12:50, the beginning time could be kept at 12:39, and that way PC Smith wouldn't be effected. The main reason I would want to move Mortimer's closing the door time a little later is that she said she heard Diemshutz' cart 4 minutes after closing the door, so I'm more comfortable with 7 or 8 minutes passing between those events than 11 minutes.

The period of Smith's beat was 25 to 30 minutes. If Smith was last in Berner St between 12:30 and 12:35, he is going to be back there no later than 1:02/3, and as early as 12:57/8. Having Smith arrive even at the latest time, is going to be difficult if Deimschitz is regarded as arriving a minute or two before 1am. That is because Smith does not hear the calls for the police, or see the two police running to the yard from Commercial Rd.

Smith: At 1 o'clock I went to Berner-street in my ordinary round. I saw a crowd of people outside the gates of No. 40. I did not hear any cries of "Police." When I got there I saw constables 12 H R and 252 H.

So, Smith must be 2 minutes or more behind those PC's - it would take nearly that long to reach the yard from Commercial Rd, at beat pace. That would mean Lamb must reach the yard close to 1am - about 90 seconds after Diemschitz discovers the body, which is not possible. The only option then, given a discovery time of a minute or two before 1am, is to move Smith forward to about 12:38-40. You would then have to squeeze Schwartz into the short period between Fanny's lockup and Diemschitz arrival and suppose that although she is getting ready for bed in the ground floor front room, she does not hear anything as loud as the plod of Smith's boots.

Regarding the lockup-discovery interval, are you sure she said it was about 4 minutes? I regard that as being a calculation of the reporter, as opposed to a paraphrasing of the witness. Put it this way, have you ever heard anyone make an estimate of "about 4 minutes"?

There's a little bit of difference in the sources about Brown. Some have him seeing what he thought was Stride at 12:45, while others have him leaving his house at 12:45, and seeing Stride on his way back to his house.

Brown saw the couple on his way home from the chandler shop, not while going to it. Had this been the young couple, then we can get an idea of the time from the young couple report.

She had, she said, been standing there for about twenty minutes, talking with her sweetheart, but neither of them heard any unusual noises.

That would put Brown's round-trip, roughly in the 12:38-43 period.

[JeffHamm]

Hi Jeff,

That's a very good explanation. I wasn't clear when I referred to "moving Fanny", but I was referring to moving when she closed her door only. Your timeline has her at her door 12:39-12:47, but she estimated she was at her door for 10 minutes, so if the end time were moved to 12:50, the beginning time could be kept at 12:39, and that way PC Smith wouldn't be effected. The main reason I would want to move Mortimer's closing the door time a little later is that she said she heard Diemshutz' cart 4 minutes after closing the door, so I'm more comfortable with 7 or 8 minutes passing between those events than 11 minutes.

There's a little bit of difference in the sources about Brown. Some have him seeing what he thought was Stride at 12:45, while others have him leaving his house at 12:45, and seeing Stride on his way back to his house.

Hi Lewis,

That's true, she does say 4 minutes and the simulation gap is around 11m 24s. Based upon research about time duration estimations, an estimate of 4 minutes suggests the true duration falls between 1m 15s to 12m 31s. I think in the entire simulation, that is the largest difference between the stated duration (4 minutes) and the proposed one (11m 24s), while most end up being remarkably close, and this one is one of the few where the suggested true time might be longer than the stated. Given the large number of statements we have, we would expect most of the true times to be shorter, but we shouldn't be surprised if a few are longer (that's the nature of skewed distributions like this). When I put the simulation together, I was ok with the longish gap because it still fell within the expected ranges we could reasonably expect, and also because on the whole the simulation didn't have that happening frequently, so one or two cases of such a thing is probably ok. And also, considering that Fanny went inside presumably to prepare for bed, she was probably doing some last minute chores or lock up things, and so it seems to me it would be quite easy for more time to have passed than she recollects later. I could be wrong of course, as there's no way to know for sure so feel free to come to your own conclusions. The simulation is a "working hypothesis", not a "fact".

I agree that you could extend Fanny's doorstep time a bit, and also re-interpret how I've incorporated James Brown, such that the impact upon other witnesses is sufficiently reduced so as not to disturb the overall structure, so I can't say your suggestion is wrong. If we do that, it would broaden the window for Goldstein to walk by, and would still leave a gap sufficiently large for Fanny to have missed the Schwartz event (so there would still be room for that to occur). It would shift Schwartz a bit later, of course, which in turn increases the gap between his police statement of 12:45, so there becomes a bit of a trade off (reducing the gap with Fanny's 4 minute news report increases the gap with Schwartz's police statement; but I think both changes would still fall well within acceptable limits either way). So again, a bit of tweaking around the edges can be done, but I think the bigger picture remains more or less stable, and that's probably the most important thing in my view.

It is the fact we have multiple, slightly different, accounts from many of the witnesses that makes this such a challenging puzzle to work on. As I say, I do not suggest that the values I've used are the only ones that work. Rather, I simply suggest that based upon what we do have, something roughly like this would make sense of the information we have. One can play around a bit with the values I present, but I recommend that one take the time to consider what else changes in the bigger picture. Does making this bit fit slightly better make some other bit fit even worse? Which bit appears to be the more reliable source (personally, I put more weight on statements given to the police directly than statements someone made to the press; particularly when the press reports seem to reflect that person has said quite different things on different occasions!).

Anyway, I'm not suggesting you're wrong and that I'm right, only suggesting some things to think about.

- Jeff