Time of Death Analyzation

[Tom_Wescott]

Does Strides early hour of death imply that she did not belong to Jackīs tally?

If it does, then the same applies to Eddowes. I pointed this out years ago and suggested the fact that BOTH were killed earlier might suggest the Ripper went out that night with the intention of killing two women, hence the earlier start. In the wake of Chapman's murder, the papers erroneously reported a) that two women had been murdered, and b) that chalk writing was found on a wall from the killer. I think it quite possible that the Ripper had every intention of living up to his own legend.

If his intention was to murder two women that night then it makes perfect sense why Stride was not mutilated. He obviously could not afford to get blood on him since he planned on remaining on the street, speaking to women. This scenario is not in the least farfetched given the evidence.

Yours truly,

Tom Wescott

[Fisherman]

Tom W writes:

"If it does, then the same applies to Eddowes"

I donīt think so, Tom. Like I say, some hours carry a lot bigger changes with them than others, and this is just such an hour. One o clock in the night - the partyīs still on. Two o clock, itīs mostly over. Eddowes was killed in the darkness of the deep night, with the streets abandoned to a large extent. Stride was not.
Moreover, if a killer had been looking for a secluded, quiet place, such places would have been there at one o clock too - but whoever killed Stride did not make the choice of such a place. Jack did, though - on each and every other occasion.

The theory of a killer responding to the press reports is an interesting one, although I am anything but sure that the papers interested our man. Dan Norderīs dissertation on the topic is a very good and thoughtprovoking one.

But that does not change the fact that even IF our boy had made a decision to kill twice in an evening, he could have carried out both strikes in dark, secluded spots, deep into the night. The paper reports you refer to did not suggest an earlier hour, did they?
And although I agree that your proposal is not necessarily farfetched, given the possibilites at hand to interpret the evidence, I think the same applies here too; if he needed to secure two victims, why start out at a place where a clubsman could come calling in the yard at any given second? If the Ripper WAS trying to fill out the suit tailored by the press, then he was planning things meticulously. Why risk the whole project by making such risky choices of time and venue? A careful planner, I think, would have done better than that. Plus, if that careful planner was Jack, he would have cut deeper ...

The best,
Fisherman

[Supe]

Fisherman,

I do believe Tom has a very valid point concerning Eddowes. After all, if we accept the conventional timing (for which in these two cases there is little room for dispute) then Eddowes was killed less than an hour after Stride and that would still make it rather early by the standards of the other murders. Moreover, as we have learned the streets were never that empty regardless of the hour and people were coming from and going to places of employment throughout the night, not to mention those wandering the streets for less salubrious purposes.

Your argument about the location for Stride's murder is more to the point, but as you know I explain that by saying that Stride was killed by JtR but hers was not a Ripper murder.

In any case, you must also consider that, if Richardson, Cadosche and Long are to be believed (and I like their testimony more than Dr. Phillips' "a look and a feel" estimate of time of death) then Chapman was killed rather late in the night.

Of course, unless dealing with a murderer with a time-clock obsession, there will be a wide variation in death times. As it is, Jack was likely an opportunist and just when he struck was dependent on many more things than a glance at his watch (which he most likely never had). Indeed, ascribing horological importance to the murders is rather a modernist conceit. At best, we might agree that Jack was a "creature of the night" but anything more than that would be a snare.

Don.

[Tom_Wescott]

If the Ripper WAS trying to fill out the suit tailored by the press, then he was planning things meticulously. Why risk the whole project by making such risky choices of time and venue? A careful planner, I think, would have done better than that.

Did the Ripper ever pick a 'venue' that wasn't risky? And I hate to make serial killer comparisons, but the Zodiac killer also acted based on what he read in the press. When they teased him for being a coward because his male victims often lived whereas his female victims didn't, he killed a solo male cab driver and escaped on foot. He also wanted to show that he could kill in daylight and made the very risky attack on a couple at Lake Berryessa.

Yours truly,

Tom Wescott

[perrymason]

If it was after midnight and before dawn it was within the time that Jack killed, we cant start assigning him a fixed point in time for kills.......nor can we dismiss Liz due to her murder at an early part of that 6 hour window, or Kate 45 minutes later....or Annie due to her being killed at almost dawn.

What we can eliminate are victim assignations that are not based on any physical evidence with linkage to Jack the Ripper. Liz Stride was murdered, its the only act that is shown in the physical evidence, and so it should be...the single cut was enough to achieve what her killer apparently wanted, which was her dead......there is no evidence that suggests Liz Stride fell victim to a killer who kills so he can have a female body to cut into.

As for 2 cuts on most Ripper victims, Brown doesnt say 1 cut or 2, he says "cut across".......and then goes into more details later, such as the depth and the nicking of the vertebrae..... he never specifies how many cuts were on her throat....Bond says the neck was cut through the tissues down to the 5th or 6th vertebrae, he doesnt specify the number of cuts. Neither say a single cut, but I suppose either might have meant that.

Jack kills women he doesnt know, right? Ok....so Jack didnt know Liz, right? Then why would she be turning her back on the unknown man while holding breath fresheners in her hand? If its only the 2 of them in the yard, surely she might be wary of a stranger...not wondering whether her mouth tastes nice.

Best regards all.

[lynn cates]

night and day

Hello Supe. Your dictum:

"if Richardson, Cadosche and Long are to be believed (and I like their testimony more than Dr. Phillips' "a look and a feel" estimate of time of death) then Chapman was killed rather late in the night."

might require a very slight emendation. Since sunrise was at 5:23, it was early in the morning.

The best.
LC

[lynn cates]

those bloody cachous

Hello Mike. You are dead on, I think, in saying:

"Jack kills women he doesnt know, right? Ok....so Jack didnt know Liz, right? Then why would she be turning her back on the unknown man while holding breath fresheners in her hand? If its only the 2 of them in the yard, surely she might be wary of a stranger...not wondering whether her mouth tastes nice."

Those bloody cachous are misery for many interpretations of Liz's death.

The best.
LC

[Tom_Wescott]

The Cachous

I love the cachous, because they're evidence and should be thought of as such, not as an obstacle. As I've published in Ripper Notes, I equate the cachous in Stride's hand with the thimble next to Eddowes hand and the belongings at Chapman's feet and by her head. It's a piece of evidence that LINKS the three victims.

Yours truly,

Tom Wescott

[lynn cates]

placing cachous

Hello Tom. In the cases of those 2 ladies, it looks like the assailant was "rifling." Are you suggesting that Liz's attacker placed the cachous in her hand? That thought had crossed my mind, but I dismissed it. For what possible purpose would he do that?

The best.
LC

[perrymason]

I think Tom that in Annies case it would seem her inner skirt pocket was torn open and the contents spilled out....coupled with her missing rings, that seems to indicate a petty theft as well as murder. Seems nothing was missing from Kate, nor from Liz...unless the 6d she was paid at around 5pm that day. There is enough time, and a new flower and some cashous that might explain where that 6d went.

Only Liz seems to have had something in her hand at the time of the attack....hence, the clenched cashous.

Cheers Tom, all.

[Tom_Wescott]

He asked all three to empty their pockets in a mock robbery. Common enough approach for murders to put their victims 'at ease'. By telling them if they do as they're told they'll be alright, the victim feels a false sense of control over the situation. The Ripper then took the money and whatever else from their hands. In the case of Chapman, the rest was knocked to the ground. In the case of Eddowes and Stride, the small thimble and packet of cachous remained in the hand.

Yours truly,

Tom Wescott

[lynn cates]

Victorian lady

Hello Tom. A fascinating conjecture. But what would have precuded a scream (a natural Victorian lady's reaction) or a faint (also quite natural)?

I doubt I would feel at ease if I were a lady being robbed.

The best.
LC

[Mascara & Paranoia]

Liz's attacker placed the cachous in her hand? That thought had crossed my mind, but I dismissed it. For what possible purpose would he do that?

The best.
LC

Maybe he thought her breath stank and that's why he killed her?

[Septic Blue]

Time of Death "Analyzation" ???

Time of Death Analysis

I just wanted to point out a certain fact that may or may not put more weight to regard Stide as not being a victim of the Ripper. It is this: Her time of death is very much earlier than the rest of the victims.

The notion that Stride's time of death is somehow an 'outlier', is an illusion!

Using the following estimated times of death:

Stride: 12:50AM
Eddowes: 1:40AM
Tabram: 2:40AM
Nichols: 3:30AM
Kelly: 4:00AM
Chapman: 5:30AM

… renders the following 'average' time of death:

Mean Time of Death: 3:02AM

… having the following 'average' deviation:

Mean Absolute Deviation: 1 Hour and 18 Minutes

… and the following 'standard' deviation:

Sample Standard Deviation: 1 Hour and 41 Minutes

Jack's primary killing hours are estimated as being around 2am-6am in the morning.

Assuming a mean time of death of 3:02AM, and a standard deviation of one hour and forty one minutes; "Jack's primary killing hours are estimated as being": 1:21AM – 4:43AM.

This range does not include the Stride and Chapman times of death; but this in itself does not suggest that either of the times of death is an 'outlier'.

Again, …

Sample Standard Deviation: 1 Hour and 41 Minutes
Sample Standard Deviation Range*: 1:21AM – 4:43AM

* i.e. the range of time, from one standard deviation earlier than the mean time of death (3:02AM), to one standard deviation later than the mean time of death (3:02AM)

Had this series of murders continued ad infinitum; the expectation would be that 63.68% would have occurred within the specified range of time (i.e. 1:21AM – 4:43AM).

This can be loosely interpreted to mean that in late November 1888, the perceived probability of any impending subsequent murder occurring within the specified range of time, should have been 63.68%.

---------

Stride Deviation: (-) 2 Hours and 12 Minutes; i.e. (-) 1.31 Standard Deviations
Stride Deviation Range*: 12:50AM – 5:14AM

* i.e. the range of time, from 1.31 standard deviations earlier than the mean time of death (3:02AM), to 1.31 standard deviations later than the mean time of death (3:02AM)

Had this series of murders continued ad infinitum; the expectation would be that 75.28% would have occurred within the specified range of time (i.e. 12:50AM – 5:14AM).

This can be loosely interpreted to mean that in late November 1888, the perceived probability of any impending subsequent murder occurring within the specified range of time, should have been 75.28%.

---------

Eddowes Deviation: (-) 1 Hour and 22 Minutes; i.e. (-) 0.81 Standard Deviations
Eddowes Deviation Range*: 1:40AM – 4:24AM

* i.e. the range of time, from 0.81 standard deviations earlier than the mean time of death (3:02AM), to 0.81 standard deviations later than the mean time of death (3:02AM)

Had this series of murders continued ad infinitum; the expectation would be that 54.52% would have occurred within the specified range of time (i.e. 1:40AM – 4:24AM).

This can be loosely interpreted to mean that in late November 1888, the perceived probability of any impending subsequent murder occurring within the specified range of time, should have been 54.52%.

---------

Tabram Deviation: (-) 22 Minutes; i.e. (-) 0.22 Standard Deviations
Tabram Deviation Range*: 2:40AM – 3:24AM

* i.e. the range of time, from 0.22 standard deviations earlier than the mean time of death (3:02AM), to 0.22 standard deviations later than the mean time of death (3:02AM)

Had this series of murders continued ad infinitum; the expectation would be that 16.54% would have occurred within the specified range of time (i.e. 2:40AM – 3:24AM).

This can be loosely interpreted to mean that in late November 1888, the perceived probability of any impending subsequent murder occurring within the specified range of time, should have been 16.54%.

---------

Nichols Deviation: (+) 28 Minutes; i.e. (+) 0.28 Standard Deviations
Nichols Deviation Range*: 2:34AM – 3:30AM

* i.e. the range of time, from 0.28 standard deviations earlier than the mean time of death (3:02AM), to 0.28 standard deviations later than the mean time of death (3:02AM)

Had this series of murders continued ad infinitum; the expectation would be that 20.94% would have occurred within the specified range of time (i.e. 2:34AM – 3:30AM).

This can be loosely interpreted to mean that in late November 1888, the perceived probability of any impending subsequent murder occurring within the specified range of time, should have been 20.94%.

---------

Kelly Deviation: (+) 58 Minutes; i.e. (+) 0.58 Standard Deviations
Kelly Deviation Range*: 2:04AM – 4:00AM

* i.e. the range of time, from 0.58 standard deviations earlier than the mean time of death (3:02AM), to 0.58 standard deviations later than the mean time of death (3:02AM)

Had this series of murders continued ad infinitum; the expectation would be that 41.30% would have occurred within the specified range of time (i.e. 2:04AM – 4:00AM).

This can be loosely interpreted to mean that in late November 1888, the perceived probability of any impending subsequent murder occurring within the specified range of time, should have been 41.30%.

---------

Chapman Deviation: (+) 2 Hours and 28 Minutes; i.e. (+) 1.47 Standard Deviations
Chapman Deviation Range*: 12:34AM – 5:30AM

* i.e. the range of time, from 1.47 standard deviations earlier than the mean time of death (3:02AM), to 1.47 standard deviations later than the mean time of death (3:02AM)

Had this series of murders continued ad infinitum; the expectation would be that 79.84% would have occurred within the specified range of time (i.e. 12:34AM – 5:30AM).

This can be loosely interpreted to mean that in late November 1888, the perceived probability of any impending subsequent murder occurring within the specified range of time, should have been 79.84%.

Considering again, the estimated time of death; in the case of Elizabeth Stride:

Stride Deviation: (-) 2 Hours and 12 Minutes; i.e. (-) 1.31 Standard Deviations
Stride Deviation Range*: 12:50AM – 5:14AM

* i.e. the range of time, from 1.31 standard deviations earlier than the mean time of death (3:02AM), to 1.31 standard deviations later than the mean time of death (3:02AM)

Had this series of murders continued ad infinitum; the expectation would be that 75.28% would have occurred within the specified range of time (i.e. 12:50AM – 5:14AM).

Thus the expectation that 24.72% would have occurred outside the specified range of time (i.e. 12.36% prior to 12:50AM; 12.36% after 5:14AM)

12.36%!

If the expectation were that one-in-eight subsequent murders would have occurred earlier in the day, than did Elizabeth Stride's; would there be any justification in suggesting that her murder occurred at an unusually early hour?

No! There would not be!

There isn't!

So, at what level of deviation, would we have an 'outlier'?

I am inclined to say two standard deviations or the level of deviation, at which there would be a 90.00% expectation with regard to the percentage of impending subsequent murders occurring within the specified range of time (i.e. the level of deviation, at which 90.00% of the corresponding probability distribution, was accumulated); whichever is greater.

Outlier Threshold: (+/-) 3 Hours and 22 Minutes; i.e. (+/-) 2.02 Standard Deviations
Outlier Threshold Range*: 11:40PM – 6:24AM

* i.e. the range of time, from 2.02 standard deviations earlier than the mean time of death (3:02AM), to 2.02 standard deviations later than the mean time of death (3:02AM)

Had this series of murders continued ad infinitum; the expectation would be that 90.00% would have occurred within the specified range of time (i.e. 11:40PM – 6:24AM).

This can be loosely interpreted to mean that in late November 1888, the perceived probability of any impending subsequent murder occurring within the specified range of time, should have been 90.00%.

Now; this analysis does have certain limitations that must be acknowledged:

- The overall range of possible deviation is limited to 3:02PM -to- 3:02PM, i.e. a range of twenty four hours, having 3:02AM as its median. This constraint diminishes the 'normal' aspect of the distribution of times of death; thus rendering the estimated 'expectations' less viable.

- Times of death earlier than 12:00AM, and later than 6:00AM are perhaps less likely than the analysis would suggest.

I will suggest therefore, a slight reduction of the perceived Outlier Threshold Range; from 11:40PM – 6:24AM -to- 12:00AM – 6:00AM.

Hence; a murder occurring between 12:00AM and 6:00AM - in light of the distribution of estimated times of death, under consideration - should not be considered unusual.

I will try to put together a graphic depiction of this analysis, over the course of the next couple of days.

Of course, it will not explain the concept of 'Standard Deviation' - I am still working on a meaningful explanation, so as to continue my "Informal Presentation of Geo-Spatial Analysis Project" - ; but it should hopefully make the above analysis somewhat easier to comprehend.

Point of Clarification:

The above analysis does not involve any assumptions regarding the perpetrator(s) of the murders under consideration. Its underlying assumption is that the 'dolly-mops' of the Dorset Street and Flower & Dean Street 'rookeries', in the Parish of Christ Church Spitalfields, were most vulnerable, in 1888, at a particular hour of each morning; and that the hour in question is perhaps discernable, by way of an understanding of the manner, in which the six times of death under consideration are distributed.

[lynn cates]

Chapman

Hello Septic. Would the analysis change significantly if the time of Annie Chapman's death were moved up 90 minutes to correspond to Phillips' time estimate?

The best.

LC