Originally posted by Abby Normal
View Post
Well, there's also Long, if you believe she saw Capman and JtR, who describes the man as "foreign looking", which apparently at the time indicated Jewish. And of course, the whole Leather Apron aspect early on was looking for Pizer, who was Jewish as well. However, much of that suspicion may reflect anti-Jewish sentiment at the time rather than any real evidence that JtR was Jewish. He might have been, but then, he might not have been. Hutchinson, like most named suspects, has what I would call "peripheral support", meaning there's one or two of his behaviours that draw attention to him making him a lead worth exploring, but in the end, there are so many "not JtR" ways to explain his behaviour (including his overly detailed description) that he's just one more on the list. We have, unfortunately, leads but there are far fewer ways to follow them up compared to a current case.
Think Dennis Rader, if he had never been caught. A century later, he would look like a family man, employed at ADT and later for Park City, and active in his Church and Boy Scouts. There would be nothing that would raise any red flags. So maybe Hutchinson is similar? Or maybe, the vast majority of people that don't raise red flags are simply those without flags to raise? Hutchinson's behaviour can range from "JtR, inserting himself into the investigation" (which is not uncommon behaviour for serial killers) to "genuine witness who tries to be overly helpful and contaminates his own memory with his efforts to recall details" (which is also not uncommon) and even to "genuine witness and Astrakhan Man is real and Hutchinson had a photographic memory" (which is uncommon, and in my view, highly unlikely, but I'm just covering all bases here).
Also, Hutchinson lives east of the GSG, which means, if he made it home, then went back out to get rid of the apron, he went back west towards the crime scene (towards increasing risk). But, he doesn't head that far West, so while it would be risky it's not a long journey and JtR is certainly not the best at situational risk assessment. All of the crime locations are so over the top in terms of risk that arguments that he must have been really astute to recognize he could get away with it, implying good situational awareness, are all attributing luck with intention - the crime locations are all so risky that his getting away was by luck not design in my view, and his willingness to commit the offenses where he did imply poor, rather than good, risk assessment. Of course, that's just my interpretation/opinion, and others certainly draw a different one.
I'm in the process of testing out a slightly different algorithm for part of the analysis. Initial testing shows some improvement, but I think it's mostly for cases where the offender is located a bit further from zone 1 (so reducing the larger errors). There could be, however, a bit of a drop in the number of cases that fall in zone 1 (Rader drops to zone 3 or 4, for example; that's still within 7.5-10% of the total search area, which is still a good result). I'm still working on it, and trying to work out better estimates for some of the probability distributions, so the below is more for interest's sake. Basically, it favours the northern hot spot, so isn't splitting zone 1 into a north and south version (though the southern portion is still an area of high interest). Hutchinson is in Zone 8 (worthy of note). Interesting, the pub at the west end of Dorset Street is in the peak area of Zone 1 (the pinkish section in the yellow region), and I believe there were "sightings" from there. Also, and this is just me, I find it interesting that the high interest area extends up towards and beyond Hanbury Street. That area intrigues me, as I tend to think JtR must have been awfully close to home after the Chapman murder as the sun was coming up - the longer he was in the street the greater the chance he would have been spotted post murder - assuming he had to have some blood on him that would have been visible. Also, again if we trust Long, she came from Brick Lane and JtR was backon to her - so if that indicates he too had originally come from the East, that area looks good - but of course, people's position in a conversation is not always indicative of their original direction of travel). It's also interesting that it appears to be the area where no suspects have been identified, and given that the case is unsolved, maybe that's why? This is all very speculative, and no, I don't "believe" it, rather, it's one of the many hypotheses that I like to consider at times.
Anyway, I've got a lot more number crunching to do, but I wouldn't expect a dramatic change in the general pattern. And I've got another approach to test out as well, and that could end up being the best option. Sigh, it's a complicated problem to solve, but in some ways, that's what holds my interest. ha ha
- Jeff
Comment