Evidence of innocence

[Abby Normal]

Hi all,

The recent discussion on behavioural profiling has just led me to recheck to see what I can find on it's efficacy. Came across a simple article in Psychology Today (not the highest prestige journal out there, but contains articles that don't expect one to be an expert in the field).

In it, they mention how profiling approaches break down (broadly) into
1) statistical/analytical approaches
2) clinical interpretive approaches (i.e. of the Douglas type - experience, intuition, educated guesswork)

It's the latter that most people hear about, and yes, it's the latter that performs more poorly. While they don't go into details, the article does mention an experimental study. They trained one police force to use analytic approaches and another they left to use their usual approaches. After a year, the one trained with analytic profiling tools had solved over 260% more crimes. They didn't have a group trained in the clinical/interpretive approaches, which is unfortunate as I would have liked to see that outcome.

They also mention a study which reports that profile predictions were accurate 66% of the time, but don't provide enough details in this article to know how accuracy was judged, or what the chance rate would be. If it is scored such that the chance rate by random guessing would be 50%, then 66% is better than chance, but hardly something to bank upon. But if the chance rate of guessing was 10%, then that's a very big improvement.

The police themselves don't view profiles as if they're manna from heaven, but egos run high in police forces and profiles come from outsiders, so opinion polls might not be a great measure of their efficacy. Other similar values they mention are fairly low rates (like in only 2.7% of cases did the profile lead to an arrest) could suffer from the same problem - a reluctance to credit the outsider with contributing to the arrest, particularly as profiles are intended to make suggestions about what to look for, and an arrest only occurs after you've looked and found. But maybe the study is able to account for this problem, I'm just thinking of questions after having found this one.

anyway, it looks like there are some studies out now that are starting to look at behavioural profiling. Personally, I'm more interested in reading up on the statistical/analytical approaches (hardly a surprise there). I still haven't found a good study on the more "famous" version of profiling, but then, it's always the problem child everyone knows and not the quiet good one.

Here's a link to the article if anyone's interested: Behavioural Profiling

- Jeff

hi again Jeff
I found the thread I started that I mentioned in my previous post. for what its worth:

My profile of the ripper

12-01-2018, 09:36 AM
Aged 28-43
Below average height
Stout, powerfully built
Light brown/ ginger hair
mustache
Local, lived in immediate area
Walked when committing murders, possible use of cart
English
Gentile
Steady work, probably involving manuel labor
Lower class but not poor
Had own place, though modest
Frequented pubs and drinker
Single or dominated wife
Knew prostitues and socialized with
Had problems having sex
Former military and or navy/ sailor
Very familiar with knife
Accustomed to carrying knife before murder spree
Appears very cocky to people
Thinks he is smarter than anyone else
Self assured
Cunning
Experience cutting up animals
Probable anatomical knowledge, possible medical/surgical experience
NO or very light criminal record
No overt mental illness
Read newspapers
Main motivation-Fascinated with the female body and what his knife could do to it
Possible masterbation and or cannibalism with trophies/ parts
Secondary motivation-Enjoyed shocking / toying with the public
Looked down on police
No interest in torture, all interest post mortem
Curiosity big factor in motivation

[MrBarnett]

Can we also ditch the unilluminated clock malarkey!

This is from 1887. I chose it because Colchester is not very far from Halstead.

[Mark J D]

... This is a photo of Pereira Street, the next street along (approx W) from Foster Street...

Wow! Where on earth do you find these things, Gaz?

-- Have you ever tried to dig up a photo of Doveton Street..?

M.

[Mark J D]

... And if the Halstead Brewery clock is anything to go by, it would have been pretty accurate...

Apart from sneaky capitalist tricks like making the clocks run fast when workers are having their breaks, it is surely not in a big business' interests -- financially or reputationally -- to have a clock showing inaccurate time...?

M.

[MrBarnett]

Wow! Where on earth do you find these things, Gaz?

-- Have you ever tried to dig up a photo of Doveton Street..?

M.

I just keep Googling away until I find something interesting.

No luck with Doveton Street or Pinchin Street - so far.

[MrBarnett]

hi again Jeff
I found the thread I started that I mentioned in my previous post. for what its worth:

My profile of the ripper

12-01-2018, 09:36 AM
Aged 28-43
Below average height
Stout, powerfully built
Light brown/ ginger hair
mustache
Local, lived in immediate area
Walked when committing murders, possible use of cart
English
Gentile
Steady work, probably involving manuel labor
Lower class but not poor
Had own place, though modest
Frequented pubs and drinker
Single or dominated wife
Knew prostitues and socialized with
Had problems having sex
Former military and or navy/ sailor
Very familiar with knife
Accustomed to carrying knife before murder spree
Appears very cocky to people
Thinks he is smarter than anyone else
Self assured
Cunning
Experience cutting up animals
Probable anatomical knowledge, possible medical/surgical experience
NO or very light criminal record
No overt mental illness
Read newspapers
Main motivation-Fascinated with the female body and what his knife could do to it
Possible masterbation and or cannibalism with trophies/ parts
Secondary motivation-Enjoyed shocking / toying with the public
Looked down on police
No interest in torture, all interest post mortem
Curiosity big factor in motivation

Thanks, Abbey. There’s only one item there that definitely didn’t apply to Lechmere: the military/navy thing. What was the rationale for including that?

[Mark J D]

No luck with Doveton Street or Pinchin Street - so far.

I've wondered whether the news about bomb-site clearance or wholesale demolition might have made it into local papers. I assume someone is on to that?

M.

[Abby Normal]

Thanks, Abbey. There’s only one item there that definitely didn’t apply to Lechmere: the military/navy thing. What was the rationale for including that?

lol-so funny you mentioned that! when just looking through my list its one i now think I probably should have left out or qualified with a "possibly". I took it from witness descriptions of appearance of a sailor, and military bearing and from the fact that many serial killers do have a military background.There may have been a little bit of pre bias as a couple of my favored suspects (hutch and chapman) had military (or possibly had) a military background. If you read through the thread, interestingly my profile also kind of rules out some of my other favored suspects, but rules some in (as well as some of my not favored suspects)and also has other interesting contributions from other posters.

other than the former military, it def rules Lech in.

[Mark J D]

... other than the former military, it def rules Lech in.

There's naval history in the Lechmere family (all that Trafalgar and court-martial stuff, etc). As always, it would be worth seeing if there are any records for youths in the relevant area being members of organisations with militarist trappings -- you know, 'Boy's Brigade' and suchlike...

M.

[GBinOz]

Hi,

If George is so inclined, he might want to see if changing his set up slightly (particularly to ensure there is no light source in front of him when viewing towards the barrow - and giving himself enough time for his eyes to dark adapt a bit) results in any notable differences. Or to approach the question from a different angle (see what I did there? ), how much does he have to change things to recognize the barrow at around 7m, or at 10.5m? We'll never be able to know which of those conditions comes closest to those of the night of the murder, but it would at least give us an idea of how variable those viewing distances can be.

- Jeff

Hi Jeff,

Thank you for the invitation to review my re-creation. I only read this post this afternoon, but as it has turned out this evening has been perfect for experimentation. The 31st Aug 1888 at Bucks Row was bright and clear with 30% cloud cover. The moon was waning crescent, rose at around midnight, transited the meridian after sunrise and was 38% illuminated. This evening at Narooma the moon is waning gibbous just rising during the re-enactment but hidden by a small amount of cloud which gave only a soft glow in the eastern sky. There was zero other cloud in the sky and the stars were very bright. The moon was 93% illuminated so I decided to proceed with the re-enactment as I felt that a bright night in the east end of London in the late eighteenth century would not be as bright as that of a regional setting in Australia, and waiting for such a bright moon to clear the cloud would unduly prejudice the experiment. The were no lights on in my home or in the homes of the distant neighbours.

I had also decided to shift the re-enactment to my driveway which is a grey colour similar to that of cobblestones. I considered asking by 70 year old wife whether she would like to come and lie in our driveway in the middle of the night while I measured up some stuff, but then thought better of the idea. I used my full length Driza-Bone duster and padded it with towels to look like the shape of a woman. I used a white towel for the breast area to mimic Polly's white flannel chest cloth, and a light brown towel to shape the head and mimic Polly's hair colour. Total height of the body replica was about 5' 2". I laid this "body" on the south side of the drive with the head pointing east and laid out markers every 3 metres on the north side of the driveway, which is only 4 metres wide, so not quite authentic. My wife does not possess a bonnet so I substituted a black fedora.

Come 11PM I went to the garage and turned off the auto-light and used the time for eye adjustment to walk to our front gate, about 80 metres away. Our gatepost has the mail box on top which makes it about 5 feet high, and a little over a foot wide. I thought that, while the post is smaller than a man I would see how close I had to be to distinguish it's shape. At ten metres I could just make out the shape because I knew what I was looking for, and it is light grey in colour, but I would have serious doubts about being able to distinguish a man's shape standing any more than about 15 metres away in that light.

Back to Polly. At eighteen metres I couldn't discern anything. At fifteen metres I could just make out a dark shape contrasted against the light grey paving. This was both direct observation and the peripheral observation that would be available to a man watching were he was walking rather than the looking for an object in which I was engaged. I have to say that the shape did look like a tarpaulin on the ground. From fifteen metres I started walking straight at the shape. At twelve metres I started to see a faint white glow within the shape, with the glow being a little stronger at 9 metres and stronger again at six metres. At four metres I could just make out the light brown towel that represented Polly's hair and the arms started to take shape. I could not recognise the hat at all at this distance. At three metres I could see the shape of a person, but from this angle of approach I could not discern the shape of a dress until about two metres. With an angle of approach from the kerb directly opposite, I could see dress shape from about four metres.

If Lechmere noticed the shape at 15 metres and walked towards it, stopping in the middle of the road at between six and nine metres, I would be very hard to convince now that he could discern that the shape was a woman. Not so if he crossed from directly opposite, or two or three metres before he reached directly opposite.

Next I stood over and kneeled over the "body" at about body chest level, and I couldn't really argue about the fact that the carmen would have had difficulty seeing blood. I can't really comment on the visibility of a cut throat as Polly was described as having a dark complexion so I don't know what contrast there would have been between her skin and a throat wound.....and I don't even want to think about how I would do that re-creation.

Having repeated each re-creation six or seven times, I would offer the following conclusions for consideration:

. Lechmere's story of identifying the shape as a woman from the centre of the road is more believable the closer he gets to crossing opposite the body.

. Paul was no more than fifteen metres from Lechmere when he first saw him.

. Paul could not have seen Lechmere walking forty yards in front of him.

. The carmen's story of not seeing any blood or wounds due to the darkness is believable.

There is a marked difference in result between this re-creation and the previous due to, I believe, the contrasting colours. The barrow was red and was upturned on brick paving. The darker colour of the coat contrasting the grey paving increased visibility. Also, the original experiment was conducted on an overcast evening, the current on a starry starry night.

Hope this is of help Jeff.

Cheers, George

[MrBarnett]

There's naval history in the Lechmere family (all that Trafalgar and court-martial stuff, etc). As always, it would be worth seeing if there are any records for youths in the relevant area being members of organisations with militarist trappings -- you know, 'Boy's Brigade' and suchlike...

M.

Mark/Abby,

It’s possible that CAL’s carman’s get up may have had a bit of a nautical look.

https://forum.casebook.org/forum/ripper-discussions/suspects/lechmere-cross-charles/9889-what-did-a-carman-look-like

[Herlock Sholmes]

hi again Jeff
I found the thread I started that I mentioned in my previous post. for what its worth:

My profile of the ripper

12-01-2018, 09:36 AM
Aged 28-43
Below average height
Stout, powerfully built
Light brown/ ginger hair
mustache
Local, lived in immediate area
Walked when committing murders, possible use of cart
English
Gentile
Steady work, probably involving manuel labor
Lower class but not poor
Had own place, though modest
Frequented pubs and drinker
Single or dominated wife
Knew prostitues and socialized with
Had problems having sex
Former military and or navy/ sailor
Very familiar with knife
Accustomed to carrying knife before murder spree
Appears very cocky to people
Thinks he is smarter than anyone else
Self assured
Cunning
Experience cutting up animals
Probable anatomical knowledge, possible medical/surgical experience
NO or very light criminal record
No overt mental illness
Read newspapers
Main motivation-Fascinated with the female body and what his knife could do to it
Possible masterbation and or cannibalism with trophies/ parts
Secondary motivation-Enjoyed shocking / toying with the public
Looked down on police
No interest in torture, all interest post mortem
Curiosity big factor in motivation

You missed Barrister/schoolteacher

[rjpalmer]

RJ,

On this particular topic I’m not putting forward my own theory.

Oh, understood, Gary, understood.

Otherwise, it would run against the chief doctrine of Orthodox Lechmerism. The onus is always on everyone else to prove that Lechmere wasn't the killer. Hence the highly questionable premise of this thread.

In this instance, the onus is on me to prove there wasn't a massive illuminated and highly accurate clock high in the air above the brewery wall. You have no obligation to show that there really was one, of course. I grasped the rules of the Lechmere schtick long ago.

This is a photo of Pereira Street, the next street along (approx W) from Foster Street. It was on the same alignment as Foster Street and met Bath Street at its southern end. The photo shows the view towards Bath Street and the 14ft wall your theory relies so heavily on.

First off, what theory? I have no theory that Lechmere was the killer. In this instance, Christer and Robert Mills have a theory that Robert Paul's timing was accurate (despite it clashing with everyone else's) and thus Lechmere must have lied to the coroner, which presumably proves he killed Polly Nichols.

I am merely asking where this highly accurate clock might have been located, since the only one you’ve yet shown faced the Whitechapel Road on the far end of a massive complex and was nowhere near the dark back northwest corner where Paul passed by.

If you agree with Christer and Bob Mills’ reasoning, why not simply say so? Otherwise, you appear to be defending their theory without having the mettle to get your own feet wet.

Do you think Robert Paul saw an accurate clock and really did arrive in Buck’s Row at EXACTLY 3:45? If so, how do you explain that his estimate seems to clash with everyone else’s? If not, why are you arguing like you believe that he did?

And you do understand how perspectives work, correct?

Below is a man walking next to a brick wall. It seems strange that I need to post it. He can't see over it. Now image it’s dark. He REALLY can’t see over it.

Yet, if we back the camera up to the far end of Pereira Street in broad daylight, we will suddenly be able to see a very tall smokestack in the distance, even though there is a brick wall in front of it.

But, of course, Robert Paul was not walking along the far end of Pereira Street in broad daylight, was he? (Dang! I'm starting to sound like Christer!)

Or are you suggesting that the onus is on me to prove there wasn’t an illuminated clock on the smokestack?

This is silly stuff, Gary. Agreed?

I’ll tell you what. When you find how Robert Paul calculated the time, be sure to inform me.

Until then, Frank O has posted the only sensible post on this thread for several hours.

“Neither of you wrote mischievous twaddle (or you both did). The fact of the matter is that we don't know how Paul came to his timing. He may have heard a clock chime and he may have seen one or he may even have got it in another way (for instance, from a knocker-up). We don't and can't know. As far as I can see, the only thing we might be relatively sure of is that Thain and Paul didn't base their timing on the same clock, as there's just too little room for that to have happened.”

As for me, I'm happy to stick with Fred Abberline. Paul arrived around 3:40 a.m. The evidence of 'missing time' is really weak.

[Dickere]

You missed Barrister/schoolteacher

Likely to be a cricketer.

[Trevor Marriott]

You missed Barrister/schoolteacher

and not forgetting uncle tom cobbley and all

Now, not only some on here are detectives, but they are now also criminal profilers

It seems some have to much time on their hands

https://www.trevormarriott.co.uk