Originally posted by JeffHamm
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Well, Cross/Lechmere only has a chance of detecting the killer if the killer leaves upon Cross/Lechmere's arrival. If the killer fled before that, then there's no chance for Cross/Lechmere to see/hear anything.
Also, having done a couple simulations for Buck's Row, there aren't many opportunities for Paul to see Cross/Lechmere prior to Paul turning into Buck's Row. We do know that Cross/Lechmere notices what he thinks might be a tarpaulin, and decides to check it out. So C/L could have slowed down at that point to better try and work out what he's looking at, and we know of course that he stops in the middle of the street. That means, Paul will be closing the distance between them during that period (not long, probably 5-10 seconds type thing), so for much of the time Paul is more than 40 yards distant. We also have no idea how accurate that 40 yards is, and when C/L says when he noticed Paul that Paul was 40 yards behind him maybe he was 50, or 60 yards, etc, he's estimating a distance from memory, not measuring one with a tape measure. And if C/L slowed and paused, that means Paul was generally even further. And the further apart Paul and C/L are for the bulk of the journey, the less and less probable it becomes that either noticed the other.
Basically, we have too little solid information to know whether or not either should have noticed the other. We have nothing recorded that says they did, and nothing recorded that says they didn't (we have stories that start at a particular point, but no clear statement that both were unaware of the other prior to that starting point of the story they tell). We have possible scenarios of their journeys that suggest there could be a good possibility they should have noticed each other (particularly Paul noting C/L), but we also have possible scenarios that explain why they didn't (without invoking guilt of course). Like everything JtR, we have just enough information to use as building blocks, and more than enough creativity to fill in the blanks. But our building blocks (evidence) are too few to constrain our final construction (story) to a similar basic shape, resulting in stories that appear to have almost nothing in common because the bulk of the completed stories are shaped by the flexibility of creativity and not by the restricting constraints of solid evidence.
- Jeff
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