Can George Chapmam reform himself to being a calculating poisoner seven years later?.

[Batman]

What do you mean, "Chapman is the statistical argument for JtR?"

Two serial killers operating in a 9km^2 around the same time in a population density of a few tens of thousands is unheard of. Even in poor places with similar conditions across the world back then through to today. Meaning there is such low probability that Chapman is JtR. That's the statistical argument.

[Fisherman]

He doesn't stop permanently. He IS stopped. By the gallows.

Pauses are not a problem.

BTK (Dennis Rader)
Vicki Wegerle September 16, 1986
Dolores E. Davis January 19, 1991

5 years right there.

I don't understand why you are asking why he didn't keep mutilating. I already stated how much Whitechapel was changing and he had to change also to adapt to it. So what was he going to do in those conditions? His old haunts had been lit up and women were hardly going to invite Chapman into their rooms looking the head off the ripper himself according to Hutchinson's description in the papers.

Do you think Charles Albright would have gone into remote control blasting people away instead of gouging eyes out if he felt that society was changing?

Do you think that Carl Panzram would take up poisoning to meet the requirements of a changing society?

Do you entertain the possibility that Richard Ramirez would swop murdering for being obnoxious to neighbours if he sensed an oncoming societal change?

Somehow I don´t.

I keep hoping that you will come up with a logical and useful argument, rooted in historical facts. What I get from you is something entirely different. The debate is coming to an end, I´d say.

[Fisherman]

Two serial killers operating in a 9km^2 around the same time in a population density of a few tens of thousands is unheard of. Even in poor places with similar conditions across the world back then through to today. Meaning there is such low probability that Chapman is JtR. That's the statistical argument.

Twain? Was it Twain who said that there are lies, damned lies and statistics...?

[Batman]

Twain? Was it Twain who said that there are lies, damned lies and statistics...?

DNA matching is even statistical.

[Batman]

Do you think Charles Albright would have gone into remote control blasting people away instead of gouging eyes out if he felt that society was changing?

Do you think that Carl Panzram would take up poisoning to meet the requirements of a changing society?

Do you entertain the possibility that Richard Ramirez would swop murdering for being obnoxious to neighbours if he sensed an oncoming societal change?

Somehow I don´t.

I keep hoping that you will come up with a logical and useful argument, rooted in historical facts. What I get from you is something entirely different. The debate is coming to an end, I´d say.

I don't either, but just because those strawman examples likely won't, doesn't mean that others won't.

Are you really suggesting that Serial Killers don't pause for years because their lives change, or because the heat is too close or because they change job?

I'll mention one big change that had a massive influence on how criminals think. Fingerprints. Here is another whopper. DNA. There. EARONS stopped murdering the same year DNA was used to capture the first British serial killer. So forensic science can certainly impact a criminal's environment. A composite can do it also. Plenty of offenders leave town when their mug is in the paper or lay low.

Oh look fingerprints were being promoted to ID criminals in the years JtR appears to have stopped.

Sounds familiar.

Where does JtR go next after MJK? I'd like to hear that one. Whitechapel is being lit up. Who will take a stranger into their bedroom after MJK?

There are loads of problems facing JtR after he murdered MJK. The very fact it's an autumn of terror tells us that there are limits to what he could have done and when he could have done it. Those constraints got worse for him, not better.

Quite simply if JtR had a wife and wanted to get rid of a partner, the last way he could murder her would be to kill her like JtR. Hopefully, that puts to bed the idea JtR would want to try to rip everyone he murdered. He would most certainly not want to draw suspicion on himself that way.

[Fisherman]

I don't either, but just because those strawman examples likely won't, doesn't mean that others won't.

Are you really suggesting that Serial Killers don't pause for years because their lives change, or because the heat is too close or because they change job?

I'll mention one big change that had a massive influence on how criminals think. Fingerprints. Here is another whopper. DNA. There. EARONS stopped murdering the same year DNA was used to capture the first British serial killer. So forensic science can certainly impact a criminal's environment. A composite can do it also. Plenty of offenders leave town when their mug is in the paper or lay low.

Oh look fingerprints were being promoted to ID criminals in the years JtR appears to have stopped.

Sounds familiar.

Where does JtR go next after MJK? I'd like to hear that one. Whitechapel is being lit up. Who will take a stranger into their bedroom after MJK?

There are loads of problems facing JtR after he murdered MJK. The very fact it's an autumn of terror tells us that there are limits to what he could have done and when he could have done it. Those constraints got worse for him, not better.

Quite simply if JtR had a wife and wanted to get rid of a partner, the last way he could murder her would be to kill her like JtR. Hopefully, that puts to bed the idea JtR would want to try to rip everyone he murdered. He would most certainly not want to draw suspicion on himself that way.

The one thing I will comment on here before going to bed is your question whether I really suggest that serial killers will not pause for years.

If you have read my posts you should know that I actually propose quite the opposite.

Then again, if you have read my posts and realized this, you may nevertheless wish to imply that I am not aware of it.

It´s a toss-up, I guess.

[J6123]

Are the non-canonical victims JtR victims?


Is Stride?


Where does he go after what he did to Mary Jane Kelly?

Smith and Tabram maybe.


Very probably


He probably went where Anderson and Swanson said he went: Colney Hatch. Either that or he dies.

[Batman]

Smith and Tabram maybe.


Very probably


He probably went where Anderson and Swanson said he went: Colney Hatch. Either that or he dies.

EARONS is still alive in 2018 and seems not have murdered since 1986.

BTK was on a hiatus for 14 years.

None of them died. None of them in the asylum. None of them unhealthy. They both started a family. DNA profiling was new.

Chapman was alive and well. He started a family. Fingerprinting was new.

[Sam Flynn]

EARONS is still alive in 2018 and seems not have murdered since 1986.

BTK was on a hiatus for 14 years.

None of them died. None of them in the asylum. None of them unhealthy. They both started a family. DNA profiling was new.

Chapman was alive and well. He started a family. Fingerprinting was new.

Never mind all that - every criminal is an individual, so just because X did Y doesn't mean that Z did Y as well, nor that Z was more likely to do Y for that matter.

There are more concrete things to go on. Look at the nature of the crimes, the timing, the geography, look at his build, his age. If you must speculate, look for possible motives and triggers for his getting pissed off at the women in his life; quite a few of those would come along in the 1890s.

Any sober consideration of factors such as these will tell you that Kłosowski was extremely unlikely to have been Jack the Ripper.

[Batman]

Never mind all that - every criminal is an individual, so just because X did Y doesn't mean that Z did Y as well, nor that Z was more likely to do Y for that matter.

There are more concrete things to go on. Look at the nature of the crimes, the timing, the geography, look at his build, his age. If you must speculate, look for possible motives and triggers for his getting pissed off at the women in his life; quite a few of those would come along in the 1890s.

Any sober consideration of factors such as these will tell you that Kłosowski was extremely unlikely to have been Jack the Ripper.

Chapman was both misogynistic and homicidal. He attacked women in his life. He murdered them later on. He was in Whitechapel at the time of the Ripper murders and some non-canonical ones. He left Whitechapel when the Whitechapel murders ended. Chapman has an affinity with sailing. In photographs, he resembles JtR descriptions, especially with his peak sailor cap. Age is the least likely estimate a witness gets correct. Beer can pack on the weight in no time hence why many of the unfortunates look overweight. I already addressed his problems with looking like a Jew at the time and also how he moonlighted as Jew when he wanted. He was a compulsive liar. Violent. He was a feldshar. He kept banned books in his short collection of torso parts and flaps. Women with their insides opened out at the private areas. Mid-wife stuff. Loads of stuff making him a good candidate. Your 'extremely unlikely' claim means you can't have a candidate other than Kozminski because no one else comes to close to that much pointing at them as a JtR. Nothing rules Chapman out at all.

[Abby Normal]

Never mind all that - every criminal is an individual, so just because X did Y doesn't mean that Z did Y as well, nor that Z was more likely to do Y for that matter.

There are more concrete things to go on. Look at the nature of the crimes, the timing, the geography, look at his build, his age. If you must speculate, look for possible motives and triggers for his getting pissed off at the women in his life; quite a few of those would come along in the 1890s.

Any sober consideration of factors such as these will tell you that Kłosowski was extremely unlikely to have been Jack the Ripper.

Hi sam
I know you must have said before, but apologies for my poor memory... but who do tou think is the best ripper suspect?

[John G]

Two serial killers operating in a 9km^2 around the same time in a population density of a few tens of thousands is unheard of. Even in poor places with similar conditions across the world back then through to today. Meaning there is such low probability that Chapman is JtR. That's the statistical argument.

And there's never been an instance of a serial mutilator transforming into a serial poisoner. That's the problem with these kinds of arguments: it's not difficult to find unique examples when you're the one controlling the criteria.

[John G]

Chapman was both misogynistic and homicidal. He attacked women in his life. He murdered them later on. He was in Whitechapel at the time of the Ripper murders and some non-canonical ones. He left Whitechapel when the Whitechapel murders ended. Chapman has an affinity with sailing. In photographs, he resembles JtR descriptions, especially with his peak sailor cap. Age is the least likely estimate a witness gets correct. Beer can pack on the weight in no time hence why many of the unfortunates look overweight. I already addressed his problems with looking like a Jew at the time and also how he moonlighted as Jew when he wanted. He was a compulsive liar. Violent. He was a feldshar. He kept banned books in his short collection of torso parts and flaps. Women with their insides opened out at the private areas. Mid-wife stuff. Loads of stuff making him a good candidate. Your 'extremely unlikely' claim means you can't have a candidate other than Kozminski because no one else comes to close to that much pointing at them as a JtR. Nothing rules Chapman out at all.

How do you know when the Whitechapel murders ended?

[Sam Flynn]

Hi sam
I know you must have said before, but apologies for my poor memory... but who do tou think is the best ripper suspect?

None of the ones identified so far.

[Batman]

And there's never been an instance of a serial mutilator transforming into a serial poisoner. That's the problem with these kinds of arguments: it's not difficult to find unique examples when you're the one controlling the criteria.

Do you have a source for the claim

there's never been an instance of a serial mutilator transforming into a serial poisoner.

That's quite a claim.

Also, let's look at the evolution of this claim.

1. Q. Show me a serial killer that changed their MO. - BTK, Zodiac, EARONS
2. Q. Show me a serial killer that changed their signature - BTK, Zodiac, EARONS
3. Q. Show me a serial killer that also poisoned. - H.H.Holmes
4. Q. Show me a serial mutilator that also poisoned. - H.H.Holmes
5. Q. Show me a serial mutilator that transformed into a poisoner later. - ?

It's such a specific criterion that it has the capacity to deceive the reader into thinking that someone like BTK, (Dennis Rader) hasn't gone from serial strangulation to serial compliance officer from hell that doesn't murder (for 14 years). Or like EARONS, went from shooting people to bludgeoning their heads to the point that EAR crimes were not connected to ONS crimes and internally the ONS crimes didn't get connected up.

Anyway, we have covered why JtR would not rip his partner if he wanted to murder her. It would draw attention to himself.

So let me ask you the question again, that seems to really get avoided.

If JtR wanted to get rid of a partner by murder, what way would be the least likely to get caught and the least likely to get associated with his previous crimes?