Lechmere validity

[FrankO]

The Issue here is frank, where we measure from, i see you say 47-49 yards between queen Ann and Thomas, and so it is from the middle of the road, but if you are closer to the buildings its 37-39. i have that distance being covered at 3.5mph in about 23 seconds.
its interesting how little changes make such big differences in speed.


Steve

Hi Steve,

I didn't measure from the middle of the road, but from the most easterlly point of Q. Ann Street to the most westerly point of Thomas Street, as the carmen had to pass both streets without being steen by Neil. In other words, my measurement includes the width of both streets.

All the best,
Frank

[JeffHamm]

hi el, strange and hamm

and yet the fact remains no other potential suspects at the stride scene:

tabram: soldiers from pearly poll and cop

chapman: man seen talking to chapman from long

Stride: a veritable plethora of potential suspects-marsalls man, smiths man, BS man, pipeman, Leon Goldstein etc

Eddowes: sailor man seen by lawende and co

Kelly: Barnett, blotchy, hutch, aman, Bethanl Green Botherer

Nichols-nada. except lech. and phantom ripper. just saying.

True, but Tabram was out with Pearly Poll (auto -witness) while Nichols was alone. The others, as indicated, were in much more crowded areas, with more activity, so greater probability of there being a witness. Nichols, on the other hand, was alone, in a relatively quiet area, and all the potential witnesses seem accounted for. And, from the examinations, it looks fairly easy to understand how he might not have been seen in the Nichols case.

Now, even then, there were people who came forward suggesting they saw Nichols earlier with a man, however, those appear to have been discounted (i.e. it wasn't Nichols they saw). That is the argument that goes on today with many of the sightings from the other murders, and there are some who would discount all the sightings as erroneous and so to them there's nothing different with Nichols.

- Jeff

[APerno]

Has anyone tried to put PC Mizen in the frame?

On why he hesitated to "return" to the murder scene.

Going with the title of this thread and giving Lechmere as much credibility as Paul, Mizen's behavior that night, and at inquest becomes odd if not disturbing. His slowness to react in particular, as if he didn't want to be the first PC on the scene and knew PC Neil would be passing by shortly.)

I know, it's all speculation, I concede, but it's mine. I'm continuing anyway . . . he had the opportunity to drift into PC Neil's bordering patrol route at his leisure, most often knowing the whereabouts of PC Neil at any given moment.

He hits a target and walks away, back to work. Found over the body, no problem really; found with a knife, so long as fresh blood isn't dripping from it, no cop will question another cop about carry protection.

He is just the right distance from the scene when Cross and Paul catch up to him; he gives off an odd indifference to the news (especially if either of the two (now credible) men actually did use the word 'dead.'

Of course he does have a serious blood problem; he better be damn good at avoiding the spray; he would actually have blood on his hands; then again did anyone note if Polly Nichols apron was intact?

What we need to know, step one: Did Mizen have an patrol route bordering PC Barrett the night of Martha Tabram? Step two: Where was Mizen's patrol assignment the night of Kate?

He has to be on a possible bordering patrol route for both nights for it to get interesting. I wonder if such information exists?

Anyway, Mizen is strong on opportunity, but weak on means.

That doesn't make him a ripper . . . but Lechmere's validity does make him a really bad PC.

[Elamarna]

hi el, strange and hamm

and yet the fact remains no other potential suspects at the stride scene:

tabram: soldiers from pearly poll and cop

chapman: man seen talking to chapman from long

Stride: a veritable plethora of potential suspects-marsalls man, smiths man, BS man, pipeman, Leon Goldstein etc

Eddowes: sailor man seen by lawende and co

Kelly: Barnett, blotchy, hutch, aman, Bethanl Green Botherer

Nichols-nada. except lech. and phantom ripper. just saying.

Very little to say that many of those were actually related to the murders, the best two would seem to be Cadosch and Schwartz.

Of course if you recall Pierre claimed that Lechmere saw the killer dressed as a policeman, sorry Abby


Steve

[Abby Normal]

Why would the police notice Abby?

let's assume that the killer did not go back East, or else he may have been seen by not just Lechmere but Paul too.

Mizen is probably either in Hanbury street or Old Montague, some comments by Lech and Paul suggest, no more, that he may have come from Old Montague, its not certain, but is actually unimportant for this specific discussion. The killer if not Lech, he would need to walk right past him, taking the same route Mizen is on for him to be seen. In addition, mizen does not state he had seen on one else on his beat that morning.

In Neil's case, he would need to again be at the precise location the killer took, when the killer passed.


Every 30 minutes the junction of Bakers Row/Whites Row is cover for only a minute or so as Neil and Mizen approach it.

Brady street is the same with Thain and Neil.

The 3 exits onto Whitechapel Road, 4 if you count Nelson Ct, are covered only by Neil, his attention will be on each for only a few seconds, and indeed he does say that while in the Whitechapel road he did see people, the killer could have been one of these, Not suggesting it was, but it cannot be conclusively ruled out.

Contrary to what is claimed the police presence was not heavy. it would be highly coincidental, and unlikely for the killer to have passed one of the 3 police officers for the limited time they were in the area.



Steve

hi el, strange and hamm

and yet the fact remains no other potential suspects at the stride scene:

tabram: soldiers from pearly poll and cop

chapman: man seen talking to chapman from long

Stride: a veritable plethora of potential suspects-marsalls man, smiths man, BS man, pipeman, Leon Goldstein etc

Eddowes: sailor man seen by lawende and co

Kelly: Barnett, blotchy, hutch, aman, Bethanl Green Botherer

Nichols-nada. except lech. and phantom ripper. just saying.

[Elamarna]

Great job again, Jeff. However, I'm not sure that Neil "heading west into Cross Street" would work. Cross Street was about 25-26 yards (23-24 meters) long and the stretch from Queen Ann Street to Thomas Street via Buck's Row about 47-49 yards (43-45 meters). Neil, walking at a speed of 2.5 miles/hr (4 km/hr), would cover Cross Street in some 21-22 seconds, while for the carmen to cover the stretch between Queen Ann St. & Thomas St. in a maximum of 21 seconds they would need to "walk" at a speed of 4.5 miles/hr (7.2 km/hr). While not impossible, I don't think that would be realistic. Also because Cross Street was only 43 to 53 yards (40 to 50 meters) away from Buck's Row, where the carmen walked. All well within hearing distance, I'd say. I think a (more) realistic scenario would be if Neil was just inside Elizabeth's Place (on his way out) or a little north of it on Queen Ann Street.

All the best,
Frank

The Issue here is frank, where we measure from, i see you say 47-49 yards between queen Ann and Thomas, and so it is from the middle of the road, but if you are closer to the buildings its 37-39. i have that distance being covered at 3.5mph in about 23 seconds.
its interesting how little changes make such big differences in speed.


Steve

[JeffHamm]

Hi Frank,

Yah, I've got the arrow a bit high I think (I just remeasured), he would be about 2 houses south, returning up Queen Anne Street, and after a minute he's not quite out into Buck's Row (just starting to come to the last property, the Smithy). Cross and Paul would only make it to Queen Anne Street, so they would have bumped into each other at that point. I guess I was thinking "that works within measurement error range". However, if Cross/Lechmere and Paul leave say a minute earlier, and PC Neil is up around Elizabeth where you were suggesting. (This is based on PC Neil walking at 2.8, which completes his route in 30 minutes. At 2.5 at T-3 minutes he would be mid-way on Cross Street and exit into Buck's Row at T-2 minutes, well before Cross/Lechmere and Paul get passed him. But again, if they leave towards PC Mizen around T-4, it's good, though tight as he's passing heading up Queen Anne towards Cross Street as they go by Queen Anne (but it's angle would mean they might not see him), and they pass him as he traverses Cross Street. PI agreen, how the sound carries through those streets would be important to know.

I'm keen on finding the cut off (the minimum), which upon this closer analysis (thanks) for this beat looks about T-4 rather than T-3.

- Jeff

[FrankO]

The point Lechmere/Cross and Paul leave the body and get to PC Mizen takes about 3 minutes for them to travel, and that would place PC Neil at the red arrow heading west into Cross. Again, this affords the opportunity for Lechmere/Cross and Paul to pass through Buck's Row and towards PC Mizen without PC Neil seeing them (and vice versa).

Great job again, Jeff. However, I'm not sure that Neil "heading west into Cross Street" would work. Cross Street was about 25-26 yards (23-24 meters) long and the stretch from Queen Ann Street to Thomas Street via Buck's Row about 47-49 yards (43-45 meters). Neil, walking at a speed of 2.5 miles/hr (4 km/hr), would cover Cross Street in some 21-22 seconds, while for the carmen to cover the stretch between Queen Ann St. & Thomas St. in a maximum of 21 seconds they would need to "walk" at a speed of 4.5 miles/hr (7.2 km/hr). While not impossible, I don't think that would be realistic. Also because Cross Street was only 43 to 53 yards (40 to 50 meters) away from Buck's Row, where the carmen walked. All well within hearing distance, I'd say. I think a (more) realistic scenario would be if Neil was just inside Elizabeth's Place (on his way out) or a little north of it on Queen Ann Street.

All the best,
Frank

[JeffHamm]

Look at all those possible escape routes for the killer.

Yes, there are quite a few to choose from. We know PC Neil signals PC Thain as he passed the far end of Buck's Row, so it is not unreasonable to presume that if JtR were at the body when Cross/Lechmere entered Buck's Row from that same end, he would be aware of that. Then it's just a matter of choosing your exit of preference.

- Jeff

[Harry D]

Look at all those possible escape routes for the killer.

[JeffHamm]

Jeff,

the body would be impossible to see until he got past the Board School, certainly not possible from Queen Anne or Thomas.

That's always been my impression too, which is part of what I didn't like about "door number 2".

If you hang on a week, all the options are clearly covered. Possible positions for the carmen and Neil are covered in great detail.

When the carmen leave the body, assuming they are walking at about 3.5mph and he at 2.5, the closest he is to the body, without being seen is around 3 minutes.

if you take the shorter suggested beats, the gap gets longer not shorter oddly enough.


if the speeds vary and they are walking faster it comes down by a few seconds.


Steve

Looking forward to that Steve. And yes, I was starting to think he couldn't be much closer than 3 minutes either. Add 30 seconds or a minute, and it's tending to look pretty roomy and easy for them to pass by.

- Jeff

[Elamarna]

You got me thinking now!

Was Woods Buildings a thoroughway 1888?
It was for many years after and might again now. On the map you are using, which is a later one, it's marked with a squashed cross at the Whitechapel Road entrance. Does that mean a covered archway by any chance?

Yes Dusty, it was fully useable and your deduction is correct.


Steve

[Elamarna]

Hi,

Ok, just measured out an alternative route, where PC Neil goes up Baker's Row to enter Thomas Street and then over to Queen Anne via Cross, completes that section, back through Cross to do the bottom section of Thomas, out to Buck's Row and then on to the crime scene. This route ends up a bit longer, making his patrol speed around 2.8 mph, but still in the right range (slower than average). The point Lechmere/Cross and Paul leave the body and get to PC Mizen takes about 3 minutes for them to travel, and that would place PC Neil at the red arrow heading west into Cross. Again, this affords the opportunity for Lechmere/Cross and Paul to pass through Buck's Row and towards PC Mizen without PC Neil seeing them (and vice versa). All of these are approximations with various assumptions having to be made, of course, but in the end, it's looking like all of the variations "work", so it doesn't matter which one is truly correct with respect to why they weren't spotted by PC Neil (and why they didn't see him).

Which beat is correct, though, may have more implications about what escape routes JtR may have had available.



- Jeff

Oh, and if he patrolled at 2.5 mph, this beat layout would require 33 minutes 36 seconds.

Nice work Jeff,

steve

[Elamarna]

hey gents
good work-but why didn't these police,anyone else, etc. notice the ripper leaving the scene, or anyone else about?

Why would the police notice Abby?

let's assume that the killer did not go back East, or else he may have been seen by not just Lechmere but Paul too.

Mizen is probably either in Hanbury street or Old Montague, some comments by Lech and Paul suggest, no more, that he may have come from Old Montague, its not certain, but is actually unimportant for this specific discussion. The killer if not Lech, he would need to walk right past him, taking the same route Mizen is on for him to be seen. In addition, mizen does not state he had seen on one else on his beat that morning.

In Neil's case, he would need to again be at the precise location the killer took, when the killer passed.


Every 30 minutes the junction of Bakers Row/Whites Row is cover for only a minute or so as Neil and Mizen approach it.

Brady street is the same with Thain and Neil.

The 3 exits onto Whitechapel Road, 4 if you count Nelson Ct, are covered only by Neil, his attention will be on each for only a few seconds, and indeed he does say that while in the Whitechapel road he did see people, the killer could have been one of these, Not suggesting it was, but it cannot be conclusively ruled out.

Contrary to what is claimed the police presence was not heavy. it would be highly coincidental, and unlikely for the killer to have passed one of the 3 police officers for the limited time they were in the area.



Steve

[JeffHamm]

You got me thinking now!

Was Woods Buildings a thoroughway 1888?
It was for many years after and might again now. On the map you are using, which is a later one, it's marked with a squashed cross at the Whitechapel Road entrance. Does that mean a covered archway by any chance?

Hi drstrange,

I don't know if it was in 1888, but yes, I believe it means covered passage as well as the passage between Mitre Square and St. James Place is similarly marked, and it was covered. The maps that cover 1888 aren't quite as detailed, but there could be some changes.

- Jeff