Lechmere validity

[Elamarna]

Hi Patrick S,

Well, the "wants to bluff it out for laughs" scenario doesn't make sense to me, and I think is just a way to try and save the whole theory given he didn't flee when he had the chance. The "couldn't run" (or decided he was caught in the act, etc) variation also ends up making little sense once it appears that people passing the end of Buck's Row can be spotted, or at least heard (as Thain was by Neil). Even if he only spotted Paul at 30 or 40 yards, he could still flee the scene, there were lots of ways out of the area to lose Paul, who's not even going to find the body for another 20 or 30 seconds. That's a pretty big head start. The one aspect of this idea that could be a weak point is whether or not PC were easier to hear than others, say due to the boots they wore, or something. Meaning, while Thain might be heard, would that mean Paul also was equally noisy?

- Jeff

One point which cannot be ignore is that Neil may have expected Thain to pass the junction. It is very probably that they often saw or at least heard each other.
And such fits with the testimonies of both on their respective beats..
And of course Neil must be favourite for the brother officer who apparently dropped off Thain's cape at the slaughter house.

None of it certain, but inline with the testimonies.


Steve




Steve

[Elamarna]

Hi Steve,

Yes, those are similar to where I was locating him as well, pending on the variation. So far, all the variations I've tried put him up in that area in a position that Cross/Lechmere and Paul can exit out to Baker's Row before PC Neil would be in a position to see them, but close enough that he would find Nichols about the time they meet up with PC Mizen.

- Jeff

Same here, and one position fits very well. But that is probably just coincidence. Since I don't for 1 minute think Mizen and Neil had spot on synchronised time.

Steve

[JeffHamm]

Hi, Jeff. Despite the fact that the documentary (Griffiths) states quite clearly that Cross - as the Nichols' killer - "had no choice" but to remain where he was because "there was now someone else (Paul)" in Buck's Row and, further, that he "could not" walk/run from the scene "due to the police presence in the area", Christer maintains that this is not his view. His idea is that Cross remained because he wanted to, as a psychopath, he enjoyed the scenario he set in motion: the recruitment and duping of Robert Paul, the scamming of Mizen, his dishonest inquest testimony. Further, upon hearing Paul enter Buck's Row, Cross instantly judged that he stood a better chance of evading suspicion by "bluffing it out".

Hi Patrick S,

Well, the "wants to bluff it out for laughs" scenario doesn't make sense to me, and I think is just a way to try and save the whole theory given he didn't flee when he had the chance. The "couldn't run" (or decided he was caught in the act, etc) variation also ends up making little sense once it appears that people passing the end of Buck's Row can be spotted, or at least heard (as Thain was by Neil). Even if he only spotted Paul at 30 or 40 yards, he could still flee the scene, there were lots of ways out of the area to lose Paul, who's not even going to find the body for another 20 or 30 seconds. That's a pretty big head start. The one aspect of this idea that could be a weak point is whether or not PC were easier to hear than others, say due to the boots they wore, or something. Meaning, while Thain might be heard, would that mean Paul also was equally noisy?

- Jeff

[JeffHamm]

Hi Jeff,

Great work! I did this exercise, too, some time back, but I had Neil going up Baker's Row and then turning right into Thomas Street instead of him turning into Buck's Row and then turning left up Thomas Street. That fits better with the route as it was laid down in the Echo of 21 September. I guess that Steve will have included this possibility in his upcoming work, but I'm sure he'll correct me if I guessed wrong.

All the best,
Frank

Hi Frank,

I was just thinking of that variation this morning but haven't had a chance to measure it and work out patrol speeds and positions. I see Steve has also included it in his analysis. Nice to see independent research converging on the same ideas.

- Jeff

[JeffHamm]

Yes we are definitely in the same ball park, i suggest that when the Carmen pass along bucks row, he is either in the Northern section of Queen Anne, before the slight bend heading south, or he is in Cross street. Those locations put him the closest distance from the murder site depending on the exact route.


Steve

Hi Steve,

Yes, those are similar to where I was locating him as well, pending on the variation. So far, all the variations I've tried put him up in that area in a position that Cross/Lechmere and Paul can exit out to Baker's Row before PC Neil would be in a position to see them, but close enough that he would find Nichols about the time they meet up with PC Mizen.

- Jeff

[FrankO]

Yes Frank, its in there, or variation on it.


Steve

[Elamarna]

Hi Jeff,

Great work! I did this exercise, too, some time back, but I had Neil going up Baker's Row and then turning right into Thomas Street instead of him turning into Buck's Row and then turning left up Thomas Street. That fits better with the route as it was laid down in the Echo of 21 September. I guess that Steve will have included this possibility in his upcoming work, but I'm sure he'll correct me if I guessed wrong.

All the best,
Frank

Yes Frank, its in there, or variation on it.


Steve

[Patrick S]

Hi all,

Just reading PC Neil's testimony (as reported in The Times, Sept 3, 1888), where it states " ... Witness then heard a constable passing Brady-street, and he called to him. Witness said to him, "Run at once for Dr. Llewellyn." Seeing another constable in Baker's-row, witness despatched him for the ambulance. ...", the first being PC Thain, the 2nd being PC Mizen.

It just occurred to me, we know PC Neil became aware of PC Thain at the end of Brady Street as he passed, so JtR, who would also be on alert, should likewise have been aware of Cross/Lechmere when he entered Brady Street (on the assumption that JtR was even still there of course), and so easily leave the scene. Cross/Lechmere isn't on alert, so would have no reason to take notice of someone down the street in the dark heading away from him.

Of course, that also suggests that if Cross/Lechmere were JtR he decided to hang around when Paul entered from Brady street as well (and not just when he was 30 =- 40 yards away), which negates any argument that Cross/Lechmere as JtR didn't have an option to flee (neither does 30-40 yards prevent that option, but still).

- Jeff

Hi, Jeff. Despite the fact that the documentary (Griffiths) states quite clearly that Cross - as the Nichols' killer - "had no choice" but to remain where he was because "there was now someone else (Paul)" in Buck's Row and, further, that he "could not" walk/run from the scene "due to the police presence in the area", Christer maintains that this is not his view. His idea is that Cross remained because he wanted to, as a psychopath, he enjoyed the scenario he set in motion: the recruitment and duping of Robert Paul, the scamming of Mizen, his dishonest inquest testimony. Further, upon hearing Paul enter Buck's Row, Cross instantly judged that he stood a better chance of evading suspicion by "bluffing it out".

[FrankO]

Ok, based on a story in The Echo (Sept 21, 1888; Thanks for the pointer Steve!), I've traced out what appears to be PC Neil's beat. It's described like this:

...the third constable would commence at Brady street, cover Whitechapel road, Baker's row, Thomas street, Queen Anne street, and Buck's row, to Brady street, and all the interior, this consisting of about ten streets, courts, passage, &c....

...

Oh, and remember, this is all assuming the newspaper report of the beat is accurate, that I've not missed anything, and all other such cautions.

- Jeff

Hi Jeff,

Great work! I did this exercise, too, some time back, but I had Neil going up Baker's Row and then turning right into Thomas Street instead of him turning into Buck's Row and then turning left up Thomas Street. That fits better with the route as it was laid down in the Echo of 21 September. I guess that Steve will have included this possibility in his upcoming work, but I'm sure he'll correct me if I guessed wrong.

All the best,
Frank

[Elamarna]

"Sur la place chacun passe, chacun vient, chacun va" (opening chorus of Carmen )

love it,

[Sam Flynn]

i suggest that when the Carmen pass along

"Sur la place chacun passe, chacun vient, chacun va" (opening chorus of Carmen )

[Elamarna]

Yes, I think I've had about 3 variations so far as well, and patrol speeds have ranged from 2.5, 2.6, and 2.8 mph I think, so all in the right ball park. And yes, while the Echo could be wrong, given the distance and the 30 minute patrol time seem to produce the police recommended patrol speeds, I think that points to them being accurate. Well, it certainly doesn't indicate there's something clearly wrong. So far, regardless of which variation I've looked at, it suggests that PC Neil was in the "Thomas - Queen Anne Street" section of his beat when Cross/Lechmere and Paul headed out to Buck's Row and they exit before he re-emerges. Also, that would mean he started that portion of his beat before Cross/Lechmere arrived, which would explain why PC Neil never sees them.

It also could mean that JtR saw PC Neil enter Buck's Row and headed east up Buck's Row before Cross/Lechmere arrived, or he headed West out through Baker's Row while PC Neil was up in that section (or South down to Whitechappel via Court or the southern section of Thomas), or around the school and east up Winthrop, or (most unlikely) the murder occurred during the time he was patrolling that section (but that time window is awfully tight). If JtR did spot PC Neil, that could explain why the mutilations were less than they were for Chapman, Eddowes, and Kelly, - he was interrupted before removing organs. Of course, it could also be that because it was the first of the series, he just didn't go as far as he did later. But, it would place the murder very close to the time of discovery.

- Jeff

Yes we are definitely in the same ball park, i suggest that when the Carmen pass along bucks row, he is either in the Northern section of Queen Anne, before the slight bend heading south, or he is in Cross street. Those locations put him the closest distance from the murder site depending on the exact route.


Steve

[JeffHamm]

I have 5 Variations on the Echo Data including something similar to your suggestion here Jeff, any of them could be possible.
I am eager to see what you think of the variations, so pressing on with finalizing the work.

Of course the Echo could be wrong, and i discuss this too. All we know for sure is the beat went as far as Bakers Row.


Steve

Yes, I think I've had about 3 variations so far as well, and patrol speeds have ranged from 2.5, 2.6, and 2.8 mph I think, so all in the right ball park. And yes, while the Echo could be wrong, given the distance and the 30 minute patrol time seem to produce the police recommended patrol speeds, I think that points to them being accurate. Well, it certainly doesn't indicate there's something clearly wrong. So far, regardless of which variation I've looked at, it suggests that PC Neil was in the "Thomas - Queen Anne Street" section of his beat when Cross/Lechmere and Paul headed out to Buck's Row and they exit before he re-emerges. Also, that would mean he started that portion of his beat before Cross/Lechmere arrived, which would explain why PC Neil never sees them.

It also could mean that JtR saw PC Neil enter Buck's Row and headed east up Buck's Row before Cross/Lechmere arrived, or he headed West out through Baker's Row while PC Neil was up in that section (or South down to Whitechappel via Court or the southern section of Thomas), or around the school and east up Winthrop, or (most unlikely) the murder occurred during the time he was patrolling that section (but that time window is awfully tight). If JtR did spot PC Neil, that could explain why the mutilations were less than they were for Chapman, Eddowes, and Kelly, - he was interrupted before removing organs. Of course, it could also be that because it was the first of the series, he just didn't go as far as he did later. But, it would place the murder very close to the time of discovery.

- Jeff

[Elamarna]

To correspond to the "right side of the street" aspect of some reports, and as I can only make sense of that if that refers to the right side of Thomas Street, I've redone the route by having him go passed Thomas to Queen Anne Street, patrol that to the end, then return to Cross Street, cut over to Thomas, up then back down. This still covers all the streets and such, and this version, with a bit less double patrols on some areas, ends up at 2.52 mph, which is pretty smack on the patrol speed you mention. I don't see any other way for someone else to patrol Queen Anne and Elizabeth Place (the L offshoot), so I'm reluctant to omit it entirely.

- Jeff

I have 5 Variations on the Echo Data including something similar to your suggestion here Jeff, any of them could be possible.
I am eager to see what you think of the variations, so pressing on with finalizing the work.

Of course the Echo could be wrong, and i discuss this too. All we know for sure is the beat went as far as Bakers Row.


Steve

[JeffHamm]

that could depend on how you read it Dusty, on where the paper believed Bucks Row started, but it probably does mean he entered at Thomas St, so i have allowed for that too, doubling back to thomas street, via cross street, or simply excluding Queen Ann.


Steve

To correspond to the "right side of the street" aspect of some reports, and as I can only make sense of that if that refers to the right side of Thomas Street, I've redone the route by having him go passed Thomas to Queen Anne Street, patrol that to the end, then return to Cross Street, cut over to Thomas, up then back down. This still covers all the streets and such, and this version, with a bit less double patrols on some areas, ends up at 2.52 mph, which is pretty smack on the patrol speed you mention. I don't see any other way for someone else to patrol Queen Anne and Elizabeth Place (the L offshoot), so I'm reluctant to omit it entirely.

- Jeff