Lechmere validity

[drstrange169]

You got me thinking now!

Was Woods Buildings a thoroughway 1888?
It was for many years after and might again now. On the map you are using, which is a later one, it's marked with a squashed cross at the Whitechapel Road entrance. Does that mean a covered archway by any chance?

[JeffHamm]

>>It seems a little odd as all the other murder scenes seem to have witnesses, police, etc noticing other people about and possible suspects. no?<<

Abby

>>Yes, there are potential witnesses at all the other murder scenes. This one, however, there are aren't, and that is what has to be explained.<<

Jeff

Hanbury Street witnesses were at a much later time, when the streets were busier. Plus, it was close to Spitalfieds Market which was just about to start.

Berner Street was much earlier and around the end of the party hour on a Saturday night and it had the club.

Dorset Street had 100's if not 1'000's of people living in the over crowded street.

No real surprises about the amount of people around the other sites compared to Buck's Row.

Even so Neil said Whitechapel Road was busy.

Hi drstrange,

All very good points. As far as we know, the only real potential witnesses would be PC Neil, Cross/Lechmere, Paul, the slaughtermen if JtR goes by them, PC Mizen (who's relatively close and on a potential exit route), or PC Thain (on another potential route). But, as the last 3 are easily avoidable, and it looks like the first 3 are too, that's all the potentials accounted for (I think). The other locations had a lot more potential witnesses, as you rightly point out, so perhaps not as surprising as it first seems. The lack of any of the Buck's Row potentials having spotted JtR still has to be accounted for, but it's starting to look like that isn't really all that hard to do (given the limited number of them and the large number of possible exit routes available). I think if he ended up on Whitechappel, given it was busy, he would have just blended into the crowd and have gone unnoticed, so despite the number of people, no reason for any of them to remember someone entering the street.

- Jeff

[drstrange169]

>>It seems a little odd as all the other murder scenes seem to have witnesses, police, etc noticing other people about and possible suspects. no?<<

Abby

>>Yes, there are potential witnesses at all the other murder scenes. This one, however, there are aren't, and that is what has to be explained.<<

Jeff

Hanbury Street witnesses were at a much later time, when the streets were busier. Plus, it was close to Spitalfieds Market which was just about to start.

Berner Street was much earlier and around the end of the party hour on a Saturday night and it had the club.

Dorset Street had 100's if not 1'000's of people living in the over crowded street.

No real surprises about the amount of people around the other sites compared to Buck's Row.

Even so Neil said Whitechapel Road was busy.

[drstrange169]

>>... why didn't these police,anyone else, etc. notice the ripper leaving the scene, or anyone else about?<<

Both Neil and Thain stated they saw people about. Mizen didn't say he saw others, but then again Mizen didn't say a lot of things.

[JeffHamm]

Hi,

Ok, just measured out an alternative route, where PC Neil goes up Baker's Row to enter Thomas Street and then over to Queen Anne via Cross, completes that section, back through Cross to do the bottom section of Thomas, out to Buck's Row and then on to the crime scene. This route ends up a bit longer, making his patrol speed around 2.8 mph, but still in the right range (slower than average). The point Lechmere/Cross and Paul leave the body and get to PC Mizen takes about 3 minutes for them to travel, and that would place PC Neil at the red arrow heading west into Cross. Again, this affords the opportunity for Lechmere/Cross and Paul to pass through Buck's Row and towards PC Mizen without PC Neil seeing them (and vice versa). All of these are approximations with various assumptions having to be made, of course, but in the end, it's looking like all of the variations "work", so it doesn't matter which one is truly correct with respect to why they weren't spotted by PC Neil (and why they didn't see him).

Which beat is correct, though, may have more implications about what escape routes JtR may have had available.



- Jeff

Oh, and if he patrolled at 2.5 mph, this beat layout would require 33 minutes 36 seconds.

[JeffHamm]

thanks jeff
just to be clear:

"Yes, there are potential witnesses at all the other murder scenes. "

and potential suspects. not so with Nichols scene. no one else but Lech. and paul I suppose. (and the police But I wont go there)

Hi Abby Normal,

True. Maybe it was his success at such a "clean get away" that increased his brazenness at subsequent murders? He was over confident due to his initial success? Wild speculation of course.

- Jeff

[JeffHamm]

I think it's telling that Griffiths arrived at a conclusion that Cross COULD NOT simply walk away and that Christer didn't correct him. As a former policeman I can only imagine his reaction to the idea that Cross stayed by choice for the thrill and/or because he felt that "bluffing it out" and "scamming" offered him the surest route "past the police" would have been something like, "Hold on... say what?".

I've always maintained that - if he had killed Nichols - Cross' best route out of Buck's Row upon hearing Paul enter would have been to simply walk toward him, passing him, in the dark, before Paul arrived at the spot upon which Nichols lay. Or he could have simply continued on up Buck's Row. There are many obvious, intuitive options, if freedom and survival are the goal... yet we're asked to believe that he chose to simply stand there and await Paul's arrival.

Hi Patrick S,

Yes, the "sticking around for jollies" defies everything. I was thinking if Lechmere/Cross were JtR then something like "head west and down past the school and out to Whitechapel" as the exit route, as it gets him "out of sight" of oncoming Paul as soon as possible, puts him in a busy street to get lost, and allows him to keep heading to work so the "couldn't leave" doesn't make sense - he had a very easy option to get out of there and also to get to work without delays. Sticking around just puts him in a situation where he might not make it to work, and he can't afford to do that, whether he's Jack or not. Even if JtR were fleeing from Lechmere/Cross, that route works well too, even if he's not heading to work in that direction (it's obviously not the only route though). Working out where and what the horse slaughters were and could see is another important constraint as I believe they didn't see anyone. Mind you, they weren't watching the streets necessarily, so it's not out of the question to consider that they just didn't notice someone walking by. Pending on where PC Neil was at these times may produce some guidance on this, though I suspect in the end we'll still have too few constraints to get too far, but we may creep a few inches.

- Jeff

[Abby Normal]

Yes, there are potential witnesses at all the other murder scenes. This one, however, there are aren't, and that is what has to be explained.

So, given the evidence we have, somehow JtR has to get out of there unseen, and also Lechmere/Cross and Paul have to get out of the area without seeing PC Neil. Given the rough estimates of the position of PC Neil, likely to be in one of the streets north of Buck's Row when Lechmere/Cross and Paul exit, it's looking like that is possible for pretty much all the beat variations, and given PC Neil's testimony that he noted PC Thain passing the far end of Buck's Row, we also know that someone on the lookout could have spotted/become aware of Lechmere/Paul at the same point, which would lead to JtR fleeing the scene. Working out where PC Neil was at that time, then will provide us with constraints on potential routes of escape from the area that result in JtR not being seen by PC Neil. And given the number of possible routes out of the area, that will be entirely possible I suspect. And those possible exits routes could be informative.

- Jeff

thanks jeff
just to be clear:

"Yes, there are potential witnesses at all the other murder scenes. "

and potential suspects. not so with Nichols scene. no one else but Lech. and paul I suppose. (and the police But I wont go there)

[JeffHamm]

hi Jeff
thanks! as it stands though apparently no one else notices anyone about, and I believe another poster had previously raised this point also. It seems a little odd as all the other murder scenes seem to have witnesses, police, etc noticing other people about and possible suspects. no?

Yes, there are potential witnesses at all the other murder scenes. This one, however, there are aren't, and that is what has to be explained.

So, given the evidence we have, somehow JtR has to get out of there unseen, and also Lechmere/Cross and Paul have to get out of the area without seeing PC Neil. Given the rough estimates of the position of PC Neil, likely to be in one of the streets north of Buck's Row when Lechmere/Cross and Paul exit, it's looking like that is possible for pretty much all the beat variations, and given PC Neil's testimony that he noted PC Thain passing the far end of Buck's Row, we also know that someone on the lookout could have spotted/become aware of Lechmere/Paul at the same point, which would lead to JtR fleeing the scene. Working out where PC Neil was at that time, then will provide us with constraints on potential routes of escape from the area that result in JtR not being seen by PC Neil. And given the number of possible routes out of the area, that will be entirely possible I suspect. And those possible exits routes could be informative.

- Jeff

[Abby Normal]

Hi Abby,

Well, that's the question. If we can roughly work out where PC Neil was (based on his average speed, and what his beat was, then we can work out what window of time is available that allows JtR to leave the scene and not be spotted, since we know he wasn't. Even if the beat cannot be reconstructed exactly, and there are variations to consider, the variations may still result in overlapping "windows of opportunity". From the windows of opportunity, we might be able to narrow that down a bit based upon the positions of Cross/Lechmere and Paul, and so forth. The idea is to work out what the constraints are, and see what's left that allows for what we know - JtR left unseen. If that ends up being not possible, and there is no "window of opportunity", then that would start to point towards Cross/Lechmere (JtR couldn't have left unseen). At the moment, though, it's looking like there is time for him to escape, and as all the other evidence also tends to indicate that Cross/Lechmere isn't JtR, that's exactly what one would predict. Working out the positions of everybody is a way to further test that hypothesis using the evidence.

- Jeff

hi Jeff
thanks! as it stands though apparently no one else notices anyone about, and I believe another poster had previously raised this point also. It seems a little odd as all the other murder scenes seem to have witnesses, police, etc noticing other people about and possible suspects. no?

[JeffHamm]

hey gents
good work-but why didn't these police,anyone else, etc. notice the ripper leaving the scene, or anyone else about?

Hi Abby,

Well, that's the question. If we can roughly work out where PC Neil was (based on his average speed, and what his beat was, then we can work out what window of time is available that allows JtR to leave the scene and not be spotted, since we know he wasn't. Even if the beat cannot be reconstructed exactly, and there are variations to consider, the variations may still result in overlapping "windows of opportunity". From the windows of opportunity, we might be able to narrow that down a bit based upon the positions of Cross/Lechmere and Paul, and so forth. The idea is to work out what the constraints are, and see what's left that allows for what we know - JtR left unseen. If that ends up being not possible, and there is no "window of opportunity", then that would start to point towards Cross/Lechmere (JtR couldn't have left unseen). At the moment, though, it's looking like there is time for him to escape, and as all the other evidence also tends to indicate that Cross/Lechmere isn't JtR, that's exactly what one would predict. Working out the positions of everybody is a way to further test that hypothesis using the evidence.

- Jeff

[JeffHamm]

One point which cannot be ignore is that Neil may have expected Thain to pass the junction. It is very probably that they often saw or at least heard each other.
And such fits with the testimonies of both on their respective beats..
And of course Neil must be favourite for the brother officer who apparently dropped off Thain's cape at the slaughter house.

None of it certain, but inline with the testimonies.


Steve


Steve

Oh, good point. Their beats were both about 30 minutes I believe, so they would tend to be in the same positions each cycle (roughly). But he's only got the time to spot him as he passes the end of the street, which is a pretty tiny window of opportunity. Still, as you say, he may be looking because he expects him, which would increase his ability to spot/hear him. Mind you, I can't see JtR also being on the look out, so I think that would apply to him as well, and the position of the body does suggest he would be facing that direction.

- Jeff

[Abby Normal]

hey gents
good work-but why didn't these police,anyone else, etc. notice the ripper leaving the scene, or anyone else about?

[Patrick S]

Hi Patrick S,

Well, the "wants to bluff it out for laughs" scenario doesn't make sense to me, and I think is just a way to try and save the whole theory given he didn't flee when he had the chance. The "couldn't run" (or decided he was caught in the act, etc) variation also ends up making little sense once it appears that people passing the end of Buck's Row can be spotted, or at least heard (as Thain was by Neil). Even if he only spotted Paul at 30 or 40 yards, he could still flee the scene, there were lots of ways out of the area to lose Paul, who's not even going to find the body for another 20 or 30 seconds. That's a pretty big head start. The one aspect of this idea that could be a weak point is whether or not PC were easier to hear than others, say due to the boots they wore, or something. Meaning, while Thain might be heard, would that mean Paul also was equally noisy?

- Jeff

I think it's telling that Griffiths arrived at a conclusion that Cross COULD NOT simply walk away and that Christer didn't correct him. As a former policeman I can only imagine his reaction to the idea that Cross stayed by choice for the thrill and/or because he felt that "bluffing it out" and "scamming" offered him the surest route "past the police" would have been something like, "Hold on... say what?".

I've always maintained that - if he had killed Nichols - Cross' best route out of Buck's Row upon hearing Paul enter would have been to simply walk toward him, passing him, in the dark, before Paul arrived at the spot upon which Nichols lay. Or he could have simply continued on up Buck's Row. There are many obvious, intuitive options, if freedom and survival are the goal... yet we're asked to believe that he chose to simply stand there and await Paul's arrival.

[JeffHamm]

Same here, and one position fits very well. But that is probably just coincidence. Since I don't for 1 minute think Mizen and Neil had spot on synchronised time.

Steve

No, there is no reason to think their times are synchronized. I just work with the stated times to see what that produces as a guesstimate, then work out ranges to account for mis-aligned clocks. So far, the stated times more or less result in sensible looking interpretatoins, and the error windows tend to suggest there's a range of times around those stated that also work. So that's encouraging.

- Jeff