Did Jack the Ripper even exist?

[Roy Corduroy]

or was it just a bunch of pimp thugs who were trying to teach the working girls of whitechapel a lesson or two?

Hi Grim,

After the Annie Chapman murder on Sept 8, Police Commissioner Charles Warren told of one such clue:

"A Brothel Keeper who will not give her address or name writes to say that a man living in her house was seen with blood on him on morning of murder. She described his appearance & said where he might be seen - when the detectives came near him he bolted, got away & there is no clue as to the writer of the letter."

Roy

[DarkPassenger]

I can't believe the naivety in this thread.

We do have evidence of a serial killer active in the Whitechapel area in 1888 - five dead bodies and a media circus!

You're taking the idea too globally - saying there is little statistical evidence overall that a serial killer was active - but you're totally ignoring the fact that five women were murdered, and that everyone at the time was calling for the killer responsible to be caught! Are you saying that there is no evidence of a whole spree of killings which would have caused a spike in figures, such as the Suffolk Strangler murders? That's all I can think you mean. Well, in 1888, Whitechapel was a filthy, overcrowded, crime-ridden slum full of drunks, prostitutes and immigrants - there was a high violent crime and murder rate, so five murders over three or four months (and we're not even sure it was five, it could have been four) is not going to show up in regional statistics.

We know for a fact that five prostitutes were killed in Whitechapel between August 1888 and November 1888.
We know for a fact that they were killed in very similar ways - with a distinct MO and recognisable signature.
We know for a fact that no-one was officially charged with the murders.
We know for a fact that the thoughts of everyone at the time, as well as now, were that one man killed all five. I think this constitutes enough evidence to suppose that a serial killer was responsible for five murders.

[Nothing to see]

I'll be honest. I'm too lazy to go back and check who started this thread.
Jack as a figment of everyone's imagination except Jacks. Separate, distinct murderers prowling around Whitechapel, murdering and mutilating the same victims, during the same season, at the same approximate time. With the same signature throttle/ throat slash? I'd think Jack would be insulted.

[truebluedub]

qualitative = images, discourse, text, talk, narrative = micro level
quantitative = statistics = macro level
If you used the newspapers to generate statistics you are still using a quantitative method.

Chris Lowe

[Cap'n Jack]

'while the presence of a serial killer would be reflected at micro level data requiring qualitative data such as newspapers etc.'

Which is exactly what I did to obtain my figures for Whitechapel.
No Jack the Ripper in 1888 the figures figure.

[truebluedub]

I didn't say ice cream caused rape I just used an old parable about statistics. See July 13 at http://volokh.com/archives/archive_2004_07_07.shtml for another who has done this.
Quantitative data can only reflect the macro level, while the presence of a serial killer would be reflected at micro level data requiring qualitative data such as newspapers etc.

Chris Lowe

[Cap'n Jack]

Thank you, Mark, a bit of common sense at last.
As regards the supposed link between the sale of ice cream and rape.
Ice cream sales stop in the winter, serial rapists and killers like Ted Budny rape and kill in the snow of Aspen. They don't have a season.
And I still do not see a serial killer in Whitechapel in 1888... unless you give him the Torso murders to boot.

[Jez]

Who was T.C. then?
Should we be looking for Top Cat?

[Sam Flynn]

it seems to me that the variations in the annual statistics for murders which resulted in guilty verdicts in court aren't going to tell us much about an unknown murderer who was never convicted of the murders of which he is suspected.

Quite correct, although the remainder (i.e. those cases which did NOT result in a guilty verdict) might.

[m_w_r]

Hi -

Call me stupid, but, to my mind, the considerable proportion of cases which resolved into lesser offences has nothing to do with it. Unless the rules for coroners' juries had changed over the monitoring period, the proportion of cases which might be resolved, in court, into lesser offences might be expected to remain more or less consistent. The commentary to the report seems to be using this proportional argument to encourage public confidence in community safety, but it is actually comparing raw data - the numbers of murder verdicts coming out of the coroners' courts, which seem to be going up. Unless new regulations had begun to affect the verdicts of coroners' juries at or around this time, this means that (in real terms, as they say), more "murder" verdicts and a largely consistent proportion of lesser-offence resolutions equals a rising trend in "actual" murders. Given that the other crime statistics showed a similar trend, one might suppose (for instance) that society was becoming more violent; or that public confidence in the police was growing, and that more crimes were being reported to them.

One other thing - it seems to me that the variations in the annual statistics for murders which resulted in guilty verdicts in court aren't going to tell us much about an unknown murderer who was never convicted of the murders of which he is suspected.

Regards,

Mark

[Grim]

Hi How

Well, I'm assuming that pimps don't follow their women 24 hours a day - what happens if they run several? - and I imagine that they will sometimes just expect a certain sum each week, with the threat of violence if it's not paid. I suppose if the pimp is short of cash, or the woman has a drink habit etc, which would absorb her earnings, he might follow her round to make sure of collecting the money after each transaction.

No jokes about a wages snatch, please.

Exactly my thoughts, perhaps it was a pimp who was sick that these women were spending away all their earnings and not putting any cash in his hands. There was no reason for him to keep them around anymore.

[Simon Wood]

Hi Sam,

I've never been good with lies, damned lies or statistics, but thanks anyway for trying to make sense of George Grosvenor's figures.

I am none the wiser, but assuredly better informed.

Regards,

Simon

[Sam Flynn]

And you, Sam, remind of someone I know called Sam, who when he doesn't have a decent answer to a serious question posts a joke instead.

Oh, I had a decent answer, AP. I just thought a bit of levity wouldn't go amiss.

I want to know why a prolific serial killer operating in a restricted area, with a specific victim type, and a restricted time span does not influence the statistics at all.

The statistics Simon posted were sampled at intervals that spanned some 5 years, so the events of just over 3 months in any one year isn't going to affect them overmuch. If we had quarterly statistics at our disposal, especially showing figures for murders/assaults of women, we might see a different picture. As it is, a mere 5 deaths in 3 months or so is hardly going to register on this general scale.

Here's a graph, if it helps:



I've just shown the murders and assaults "with intent to ravage" (which I take to mean violent or indecent assaults). The truly interesting trend is in the apparent increase in the number of the latter in the years 1887/88 - assaults of a violent and/or sexual nature seem to have risen quite dramatically compared to previous years. Whether this is statistically significant, I don't know.

Another interesting fact, gleaned from Simon's snippet, is that "a considerable proportion of the crimes reported as murder from verdicts given by coroners' juries, resolve themselves into the lesser [offence] of manslaughter". How many actual murders would have been "commuted" thus, or indeed how many verdicts of "wilful murder against persons unknown" were actually "assaults with intent to ravage" gone wrong, we are unlikely to know. It sure makes the stats tricky to interpret, though.

[Simon Wood]

Do we really believe that particular tattoo refers to Thomas Conway?

Er . . . no.

Regards,

Simon

[truebluedub]

Cap'n Jack,
Let me tell you the same thing I tell my 2nd year students: the number of rapes increase at the same time as the sales ice cream. Does the consumption of ice cream lead to rape? No. It's a coincidence which when it appears in the statistics looks like there's a correlation.

Chris Lowe