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  • #16
    Hi rj,

    Originally posted by rjpalmer View Post
    Hi Jeff, Good work. Are you aware of the following thread? Some of the discussion is relevant to your simulation:

    PC Neil's Route - Casebook: Jack the Ripper Forums

    Monty informs us that, by regulation, PCs on the nightshift aimed to walk at a speed of 3.0 miles per hour (as opposed to 2.5/hr during the day).

    One estimate suggests that Neil's route would have taken about 24 minutes to complete, based on this rate; the 'missing' six minutes would be due to stops along the way to check specific buildings, etc.,

    How this would influence you simulation, if at all, I cannot say.
    Oh, thanks for bringing that to my attention as I seem to have missed that thread.

    What I sort of glossed over, but did mention, is that I've got PC Neil's patrol speed at 2.6 mph, that's because when I measured the distance of the route I showed, 2.6mph would require the 30 minutes he testifies as how long his last patrol took him. Given we don't know where he might have stopped, or how many times, or for how long at each one, all we can do is use his complete cycle time, and set him in constant motion at that speed (which, if you note, is not using what I thought was the regulation speed of 2.5, but a tad faster; and perhaps what you mention is attributes to why that might be the case).

    Again, in this sort of analysis the locations are estimations, not exact "definitely must have been right here". As such, it wouldn't change the overall result. However, with respect to the entirely speculative "dramatic" escape route, when things are that close like when JtR emerges he's just behind PC Neil, I would suggest given the fact we're dealing with estimations that option, while technically plausible, is to be far less preferred than the other, which is well removed from such concerns. But, if he is supposed to be patrolling at 3.0 mph, then given he's likely to make fewer stops/delays the shorter the distance, if we work back from his time of finding Nichols at 3:45, he would still be in that northern section of his beat, just further back from the carmen and so in a position even less likely to see the carmen (missing each other is even easier to understand, as at the moment it's fairly close).

    Generally, when I have specific statements by the person concerned, "I was here at X, and there at Y", I'll use that to estimate their individual movement speed, rather than go with an average. I'll use the average if I have nothing specific to work with though. So, if the nighttime patrol speed is faster, then that would be important. Fortunately, though, in the Nichols, Eddowes, and Stride cases, where beats are concerned, there are some specific statements that allow me to estimate their apparent patrol speed. These have so far tended to be pretty close to the 2.5 mph, and so appears to reflect the combination of a quicker speed plus delays due to various checks and duties along the way.

    Anyway, I'll have some reading to do. Thanks again.

    - Jeff

    Comment


    • #17
      Originally posted by drstrange169 View Post
      In my ideal world I'd love to see a combination of Jeff and Richard's animations.

      ...
      Yah, me too. Each time an analysis is done there will be slight variations due to pretty simple things like each time one measures a route there will be slightly different values obtained (nobody clicks on the exact same pixels each and every time when plotting the same route on a map). These values shouldn't differ by an amount that changes the overall result, but the specific values will of course reflect such measurement errors (just like the statements are associated with error ranges, etc). If we had multiple versions, then it becomes easier to determine the common underlying theme, and to combine all the different versions in a sort of "meta analysis" (an analysis of the analyses). And that would be really informative, and interesting to us all I think. As I say, I don't suggest the estimates are exactly right, they're estimations based upon the methods I've outlined. Someone else may employ different methods, or have slightly different measurement values for distances, and so forth. By combining the results from different methods, provided the methods are valid of course, the idea is that the measurement errors will eventually average out because they should be randomly out in both directions, so will tend to cancel, while the underlying "true values" should be constant and so not average out but emerge as the different estimates are combined. That's pretty much the underlying basis for all empirical research where measurements are used to make estimations about things, from this sort of recreations through to physics and such.

      - Jeff

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      • #18
        Hi everyone.

        In case anyone's interested, here's a link to the simulation I've done for Mitre Square. I seem to have sorted the cursor location problem as well.

        I ramble on for quite a bit, in part describing how some of the settings have been determined, and so forth, so if those details are not your interest, jump to the 9m 30 second mark, and the simulation starts then.

        This simulation explores the Church Passage Couple as being a real sighting of Eddowes and Jack the Ripper. It is also based upon allowing for the minimum a...


        - Jeff

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        • #19
          Oops, just relistened. I refer to Harris, the 3rd fellow with Lawende and Leve, as Harvey! Wrong H name. I really dislike hearing myself, so I sympathise with you all.

          - Jeff

          Comment


          • #20
            Originally posted by JeffHamm View Post
            Hi everyone.

            In case anyone's interested, here's a link to the simulation I've done for Mitre Square. I seem to have sorted the cursor location problem as well.

            I ramble on for quite a bit, in part describing how some of the settings have been determined, and so forth, so if those details are not your interest, jump to the 9m 30 second mark, and the simulation starts then.

            This simulation explores the Church Passage Couple as being a real sighting of Eddowes and Jack the Ripper. It is also based upon allowing for the minimum a...


            - Jeff
            Great to see. Again, thanks for sharing!
            Best wishes,

            Tristan

            Comment


            • #21
              Originally posted by Losmandris View Post

              Great to see. Again, thanks for sharing!
              No worries. Glad you enjoyed it.

              - Jeff

              Comment


              • #22
                Thanks for these Jeff
                It does help with the overall logistics and big picture on the various movements. In a way though it almost helps point to lech to me..what with all these police walking about and none of them see the phantom ripper.lol. I know you show how its possible, but yeesh, it really shows just how slippery the ripper was. apparently no cop, or any other witness, for that matter, saw a suspicious man, directly leaving after the kill?!? I think hes seen before, but its like he vanishes into thin air right after all the murders. weird
                "Is all that we see or seem
                but a dream within a dream?"

                -Edgar Allan Poe


                "...the man and the peaked cap he is said to have worn
                quite tallies with the descriptions I got of him."

                -Frederick G. Abberline

                Comment


                • #23
                  Brilliant work, Jeff!

                  I have always struggled to visualise how all the different statements fit together in space and time (so to speak).

                  This is extremely helpful.

                  Many thanks for posting.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    That was fascinating, thank you. What a great way to help visualize all the comings and goings. I am going to go watch again, there is a lot to take in.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Originally posted by Abby Normal View Post
                      Thanks for these Jeff
                      It does help with the overall logistics and big picture on the various movements. In a way though it almost helps point to lech to me..what with all these police walking about and none of them see the phantom ripper.lol. I know you show how its possible, but yeesh, it really shows just how slippery the ripper was. apparently no cop, or any other witness, for that matter, saw a suspicious man, directly leaving after the kill?!? I think hes seen before, but its like he vanishes into thin air right after all the murders. weird
                      No worries. Mind you, Nichols is "missing" for nearly an hour before she's spotted too, so really, it's not that odd that he's not spotted is it? As long as he's not waving a knife around, keeps his hands in his pockets, and simply walks along Whitechapel, what would there be to draw attention to him until after the body is found? Since we don't know the time the murder occurred, he could have been long gone before the police move into action. And as we know, the first thing they were doing was going for the doctor, and going for the ambulance. We don't know how long it takes them to start searching the area.

                      - Jeff

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Originally posted by Ms Diddles View Post
                        Brilliant work, Jeff!

                        I have always struggled to visualise how all the different statements fit together in space and time (so to speak).

                        This is extremely helpful.

                        Many thanks for posting.
                        No problem. Glad you found it helpful.

                        - Jeff

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Originally posted by Azarna View Post
                          That was fascinating, thank you. What a great way to help visualize all the comings and goings. I am going to go watch again, there is a lot to take in.
                          Thanks Azarna. Glad you enjoyed it.

                          - Jeff

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Hi,

                            rj noted that in the Buck's Row simulation Cross/Lechmere and Paul appeared to be more than 40 yards apart. And yes, it looks like they're 220 feet, not 120 feet apart.

                            Cross/Lechmere testified that when he first spotted Paul coming up behind him in Buck's Row, Paul was about 40 yards away. As such, some were asking what it would look like if that distance was held all the way through, so I've adjusted things so that when Paul arrives on the scene Cross/Lechmere is only 40 yards ahead. Other than that, everything else is the same.

                            What may seem like a minor change in their positions results in a couple of seconds where Paul might have been able to see Cross/Lechmere ahead of him on Bath Street (the one Paul turns onto when he exists Foster; as Paul enters Cross/Lechmere has not rounded the corner at the other end). Obviously, a simulation is not exact, so there may have been more or less time than the simulation shows (even none as the amount is pretty small).

                            But, it does mean that Paul has much more opportunity to see Cross/Lechmere while both are walking down Buck's Row.

                            Our problem, of course, is that while Cross/Lechmere testifies when he first sees Paul, Paul does not tell us enough detail to know when he first noticed Cross/Lechmere. He starts with seeing Cross/Lechmere standing in the middle of the street, but we can't be sure he hadn't noticed him the whole way down Buck's Row. His description is just the point at which he has reason to take notice (fear of being mugged - this guy has stopped, etc).

                            We also do not know if, for example, Cross/Lechmere slowed his pace when he first noticed something, and walked more slowly trying to figure out what it was, first thinking it was a tarpaulin, then realising it was a woman. If that happened, then while Cross/Lechmere is in "slow mode", Paul is closing the distance between them. As such, by the time Cross/Lechmere spots Paul, he's now closer than he generally was.

                            There's no way to know which is the better description, so I would suggest the two versions could be viewed as "boundary conditions", meaning, the real events were probably something between these two versions (inclusive). There's not a huge amount of difference, but some debates do hinge around small details.

                            Oh, I don't bore you so much with details this time (but don't worry, there are some! )



                            - Jeff

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Really good stuff Jeff.

                              I have always thought that detailed maps and 3D simulations would be the way forward in this fascinating case.

                              Could you tell me what maps you were using, and give a link to them, also what software were you using in the Youtube videos?

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Originally posted by JeffHamm View Post
                                Oops, just relistened. I refer to Harris, the 3rd fellow with Lawende and Leve, as Harvey! Wrong H name. I really dislike hearing myself, so I sympathise with you all.

                                - Jeff
                                I thought you had a very nice calming voice, Jeff!

                                If you ever fancied a change of career you would make an excellent hypnotherapist or hostage negotiator!!

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