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  • JeffHamm
    replied
    Originally posted by Losmandris View Post
    So just to come back on topic (though really liking all the discussions here) my conclusion to the initial question is that there was no gap rather there was no opportunity.

    Total speculation however. In this case all theories are ultimately valid.
    HI Losmandris,

    I tend towards the same thing. Patrols were ramped up and panic had set in, starting with Chapman but even more once the first "Jack The Ripper" letters were published. After that, the chance for an opportunity goes down, and the gap may simply reflect that. Obviously there are other possibilities, but that is so a simple explanation, reflecting the consequences of the changes in police activity and public atmosphere, that I'm not sure we need anything more than that.

    - Jeff

    Leave a comment:


  • DJA
    replied
    Jack was waiting for Barnett to move out of 13 Millers Court.

    Leave a comment:


  • Losmandris
    replied
    So just to come back on topic (though really liking all the discussions here) my conclusion to the initial question is that there was no gap rather there was no opportunity.

    Total speculation however. In this case all theories are ultimately valid.

    Leave a comment:


  • PRIVATE INVESTIGATOR 1
    replied
    Originally posted by JeffHamm View Post
    Another interesting aspect of the spatial information that is of interest are the 3 locations from the double event, on the assumption that Stride is a victim of JtR of course (and I'm on the fence on that point, so for now I'm considering things as if she were).

    I'm going to present a lot of ideas here that are by no means the only possible interpretation. I'm going to make a bunch of assumptions (i.e. Stride is being considered a victim of JtR), any and all of which could be wrong (and if that one is, this all falls apart), but I will do my best to phrase things accordingly. Please forgive if I state anything in a way that is a bit more definite than it ought to be.

    That tells us that JtR's movements are initially west from Berner Street, then he's at Mitre Square, then he heads north-east to Goulston, at which point we lose track of him. So again, we're working with the assumption that the piece of apron found at Goulston Street was dropped by JtR (Trevor does not agree, but for the present purposes I'm going with the idea it was). Also, built into this sequence is the idea that the piece of apron, while not noticed until 2:20 I believe, was in fact there earlier but it was overlooked (the PC was doing his first night on that beat so he would not have been as familiar with it as someone who had been doing that beat for sometime; meaning I'm not saying he was negligent per se, only that a piece of cloth in a dark doorway could easily be overlooked by someone not familiar with the area; particularly as they had no real reason to be on the lookout for anything at that time).

    If consider the CPC as a valid sighting, then given JtR's movement from Berner Street, then either he met Eddowes at the end of Church Passage or he met her somewhere east of there and they walk to that location and at some point the rain starts. We know from Lawende and Leve it was raining at 1:30, but we don't know when it started exactly; however, given they were getting up to leave that would suggest it may only have just started, that leads to us considering the possibility that Eddowes and JtR had arrived at Church Passage around about 1:30ish, maybe a bit earlier, when it starts to rain and so they wait it out, and during that time PC Watkins does his patrol allowing the possibility of them seeing him pass (which would mean they have some reason to believe the square would be empty of police for the next 10 to 15 minutes).

    Given JtR appears to double back (Berner street to Mitre Square is west, but he doesn't continue going West he now heads NE) I think that points to it being more likely he meets Eddowes somewhere east of where they are sighted (so east of the CPC).

    And if JtR was heading towards "home" after Berner Street, but ends up west of his destination (Mitre Square), then he must have passed the street he intended to go to in order to interact with Eddowes. And I think it fair to suggest he would only do that if he could see Eddowes, and so diverted from him homeward journey at that point.

    I've seen many suggest that JtR, when he left Berner Street, headed up to Whitechapel Road, then headed West along there in his journey to Mitre Square. His exit direction from Mitre Square to Goulston Street, heads towards Commercial Street, which I'm suggesting was the street he was heading for when he left Mitre Square, though not necessarily his final destination (I'm sticking to major streets and roads here).

    If the above is correct, then that would suggest that when JtR reached the southern end of Commercial Street, he spotted Eddowes who was probably a bit to the West, maybe in the vicinity of where she had been earlier arrested for public drunkeness, though that is just passed Goulston Street so her visibility would depend upon lighting in the area. If she's standing under a street lamp, though, she would be visible at some distance.

    Regardless of the exact location, the idea is that JtR diverts from his initially intended route, heads with Eddowes to Mitre Square, kills and mutilates her, and now has to head north east to get back on the route he initially diverted from.

    And Commercial Street fits the bill. It would make sense of his initial direction of travel from Berners Street, and it makes sense of why from Mitre Square he now doubles back, in a north easterly direction. If his intention is to get to Commercial Street, and he diverted from that path in order to kill Eddowes, those movements make sense.

    Also, we know Eddowes left the police station in the direction of Houndsditch, and would have head enough time to get to Aldgate High Street/Whitchapel Road, which would mean she could be just a bit west of Commercial Street and Whitechapel. So her known movements also fit with the suggestion, but I admit we know so little I run the risk of being accused of it being hard to come up with anything that doesn't fit.

    Yes, it makes sense. Those movements also coincide with JtR heading into the high interest zone.

    Now, while I don't expect anybody to believe my suggestion that JtR was heading to Commercial Street and then north is the only possible conclusion one can come to (it's not, even I don't believe that!), if I could beg a further indulgence and just ask that for now we run with that idea (because one great big bag of speculation can only get better if I add more, right?)

    There's a very interesting pair of "circuits" that JtR could have been following. Basically, down Commercial Street to Whitechapel, east to Vallance Road (the one just west of Buck's Row that Cross/Lechmere and Paul headed north on to find PC Mizen), which he takes and hits Hanbury to get back to Commerical Street.

    The 2nd also starts along Commercial Street, then heads down along Commercial Road (past Berner Street) to New Road, which runs north until it connects with Vallance Road to Hanbury etc.

    I've indicated those as red lines in the map below, with much of the 2nd route in orange as there is never anything that places him on those streets at all, but looking at the maps they popped out at me as completing a circuit.

    If JtR is prowling around those routes, he meets Nichols on Whitechapel, he meets Chapman on Hanbury, Stride along Commercial Road (say he's Broad Shoulders, then he spots her down Berner Street as he passes), Eddowes while heading back towards Commercial Street, and Kelly along Commercial Street. And for those who like Tabram, she fits well too, as does Alice McKenzie.

    The spatial analysis hot spots are around the north west of that, and could just possibly be indicating that JtR enters these circuit routes from that corner, perhaps coming from further along Commercial Street to the North West (The Green Line on the map below). It could be JtR comes down the Green portion of Commercial Street, hits the pubs around Hanbury and Commercial, then prowls around looking for victims.

    Click image for larger version  Name:	JackMap_KeyRoads.jpg Views:	0 Size:	143.5 KB ID:	798843

    And another thing that I think is of interest, is that given Annie appears to have been killed as the light was coming up (I know that too is not agreed upon, but I did say I was going to have to make some assumptions, so one more is not going make much difference by now), I think that suggests JtR must have felt he was close enough to "home" that he could risk it as all he had to do was hide any blood for a short journey. And if MJK was murdered in the morning as some argue, her location is also very close to that exit route (and the high interest zone itself). If she was killed at night, though, then the time of the murder doesn't add to this idea but it doesn't take away from it either.

    In other words, the time of the Chapman murder seems to fit easily with the current spatial analysis high interest area, and means we might also want to consider locations not too far along that Green Line.

    Anyway, thanks if you've made it this far. And again, to be clear, I in no way am saying I think the above must be correct. There are a lot of assumptions that are being made that could very well be wrong, and some of them are fatal to the whole thing (i.e. if Stride isn't a JtR victim, then the idea that Commercial was his destination when fleeing Mitre Square is not much more than a guess as there are many things north east of Mitre Square. Those who favour Cross/Lechmere, for example, might argue he was heading for Wentworth Street, which is easier to do if Stride is not a JtR victim (otherwise, where was he going?).

    And yes, the timing of the apron's arrival at Goulston Street could be wrong. If it really wasn't there until after 2, then we cannot say JtR fled NE from Mitre Square. He could have gone anywhere, and then headed to Goulston Street. And of course, Trevor's argument is that the apron piece wasn't even put there by JtR but by Eddowes herself, in which case it's a red herring. And I recognize not everyone agrees as to the time of Annie Chapman's death, or of Mary Kelly's, so again, those are debatable.

    However, that being said, I do present it for what it is, a set of conjectures that I think are sort of interesting to consider. I don't expect everyone, or even anyone, to fully agree with the choices I've made, but I do think it's one possible arrangement of things. Also, I think this makes the sightings of the Bethnal Green Botherer all the more interesting as well.

    - Jeff
    given Annie appears to have been killed as the light was coming up (I know that too is not agreed upon, but I did say I was going to have to make some assumptions, so one more is not going make much difference by now), I think that suggests JtR must have felt he was close enough to "home" that he could risk it as all he had to do was hide any blood for a short journey. And if MJK was murdered in the morning as some argue, her location is also very close to that exit route (and the high interest zone itself).



    I have been making the same argument here myself about Kelly's murder.
    Since hers was the bloodiest murder and the one that ended later than any other (about 5.45 according to the evidence), he must have lived nearby.
    It is one of my three much-ridiculed arguments in favour of the murderer having lived in Spitalfields, another being that he headed for Spitalfields after committing the murders (as you also mentioned).

    I used to think the same about the Hanbury Street murder, but changed my mind!

    The thing that finally convinced me that she was killed much earlier than the coroner decided is the partially digested potato (which she was seen eating at 1.30) which together with the rigor mortis noted at 6.30 and the lack of sightings of her after 1.50, when she was heading roughly in the direction of Hanbury Street, convinced me that she was killed no later than 2.30.

    Even I was surprised.


    the piece of apron, while not noticed until 2:20 I believe, was in fact there earlier but it was overlooked


    According to Pc Long's testimony, he found the apron at 2.55 and he hadn't noticed it at 2.20.

    I think the best evidence is that it was left there some time between 2.20 and 2.55, which makes about 2.35.


    My theory is that the murderer went straight to Goulston Street, arriving near to Wentworth Dwellings at around 1.50 and upon seeing Pc Long on his earlier visit, went home.

    Another possibility is that he went home first and deposited the apron after cleaning himself and leaving the kidney in his room.

    Either way, it seems to me that he must have lived somewhere near Goulston Street.
    Last edited by PRIVATE INVESTIGATOR 1; 11-01-2022, 01:23 PM.

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  • JeffHamm
    replied
    Originally posted by GBinOz View Post

    Hi Jeff,

    It appears that after her release Eddowes, and Jack after Stride (I'm also on the fence with Stride) were both headed towards the place where Eddowes was found drunk earlier in the evening. This is in the vicinity of Aldgate Station where a messenger boy is reported to have seen a man and woman headed in the direction of Mitre St, with the man returning shortly after alone. It is also in the vicinity of Albert Bachert's strange encounter in the Three Nuns pub, and Butcher's Row, the area of interest of Sagar and Cox.

    Who do we know that lived in the vicinity of Butcher's Row and had a brother living in Goulston St?

    Best regards, George
    Hi George,

    Yes, I think that is also an idea that would be consistent with the general idea. I'm not convinced by my own suggestsions, they're just things to ponder, not necessarily things to "conclude", if that makes sense? I should have mentioned those sightings from the press as well. While they aren't substantiated anywhere else, so risky to put too much weight on them, they are still bits of information we need to decide what to do with. They don't conflict with my speculations, and I suppose provide some tentative support for some of the ideas. As I say, it's all very speculative and it's all built upon lots of assumptions that have to be made. Sadly, that's the state of the affairs, which is why we have so many diverse theories out there. In the end, we just don't have sufficient information to really narrow down all the possibilities. What I've tried to present is just one of many possible ways one can paint a picture. And as we know, there's entire galleries of pictures when it comes to JtR.

    - Jeff

    Leave a comment:


  • GBinOz
    replied
    Originally posted by JeffHamm View Post
    Given JtR appears to double back (Berner street to Mitre Square is west, but he doesn't continue going West he now heads NE) I think that points to it being more likely he meets Eddowes somewhere east of where they are sighted (so east of the CPC).

    And if JtR was heading towards "home" after Berner Street, but ends up west of his destination (Mitre Square), then he must have passed the street he intended to go to in order to interact with Eddowes. And I think it fair to suggest he would only do that if he could see Eddowes, and so diverted from him homeward journey at that point.

    I've seen many suggest that JtR, when he left Berner Street, headed up to Whitechapel Road, then headed West along there in his journey to Mitre Square. His exit direction from Mitre Square to Goulston Street, heads towards Commercial Street, which I'm suggesting was the street he was heading for when he left Mitre Square, though not necessarily his final destination (I'm sticking to major streets and roads here).

    If the above is correct, then that would suggest that when JtR reached the southern end of Commercial Street, he spotted Eddowes who was probably a bit to the West, maybe in the vicinity of where she had been earlier arrested for public drunkeness, though that is just passed Goulston Street so her visibility would depend upon lighting in the area. If she's standing under a street lamp, though, she would be visible at some distance.

    Regardless of the exact location, the idea is that JtR diverts from his initially intended route, heads with Eddowes to Mitre Square, kills and mutilates her, and now has to head north east to get back on the route he initially diverted from.

    And Commercial Street fits the bill. It would make sense of his initial direction of travel from Berners Street, and it makes sense of why from Mitre Square he now doubles back, in a north easterly direction. If his intention is to get to Commercial Street, and he diverted from that path in order to kill Eddowes, those movements make sense.

    Also, we know Eddowes left the police station in the direction of Houndsditch, and would have head enough time to get to Aldgate High Street/Whitchapel Road, which would mean she could be just a bit west of Commercial Street and Whitechapel. So her known movements also fit with the suggestion, but I admit we know so little I run the risk of being accused of it being hard to come up with anything that doesn't fit.

    - Jeff
    Hi Jeff,

    It appears that after her release Eddowes, and Jack after Stride (I'm also on the fence with Stride) were both headed towards the place where Eddowes was found drunk earlier in the evening. This is in the vicinity of Aldgate Station where a messenger boy is reported to have seen a man and woman headed in the direction of Mitre St, with the man returning shortly after alone. It is also in the vicinity of Albert Bachert's strange encounter in the Three Nuns pub, and Butcher's Row, the area of interest of Sagar and Cox.

    Who do we know that lived in the vicinity of Butcher's Row and had a brother living in Goulston St?

    Best regards, George

    Leave a comment:


  • JeffHamm
    replied
    Another interesting aspect of the spatial information that is of interest are the 3 locations from the double event, on the assumption that Stride is a victim of JtR of course (and I'm on the fence on that point, so for now I'm considering things as if she were).

    I'm going to present a lot of ideas here that are by no means the only possible interpretation. I'm going to make a bunch of assumptions (i.e. Stride is being considered a victim of JtR), any and all of which could be wrong (and if that one is, this all falls apart), but I will do my best to phrase things accordingly. Please forgive if I state anything in a way that is a bit more definite than it ought to be.

    That tells us that JtR's movements are initially west from Berner Street, then he's at Mitre Square, then he heads north-east to Goulston, at which point we lose track of him. So again, we're working with the assumption that the piece of apron found at Goulston Street was dropped by JtR (Trevor does not agree, but for the present purposes I'm going with the idea it was). Also, built into this sequence is the idea that the piece of apron, while not noticed until 2:20 I believe, was in fact there earlier but it was overlooked (the PC was doing his first night on that beat so he would not have been as familiar with it as someone who had been doing that beat for sometime; meaning I'm not saying he was negligent per se, only that a piece of cloth in a dark doorway could easily be overlooked by someone not familiar with the area; particularly as they had no real reason to be on the lookout for anything at that time).

    If consider the CPC as a valid sighting, then given JtR's movement from Berner Street, then either he met Eddowes at the end of Church Passage or he met her somewhere east of there and they walk to that location and at some point the rain starts. We know from Lawende and Leve it was raining at 1:30, but we don't know when it started exactly; however, given they were getting up to leave that would suggest it may only have just started, that leads to us considering the possibility that Eddowes and JtR had arrived at Church Passage around about 1:30ish, maybe a bit earlier, when it starts to rain and so they wait it out, and during that time PC Watkins does his patrol allowing the possibility of them seeing him pass (which would mean they have some reason to believe the square would be empty of police for the next 10 to 15 minutes).

    Given JtR appears to double back (Berner street to Mitre Square is west, but he doesn't continue going West he now heads NE) I think that points to it being more likely he meets Eddowes somewhere east of where they are sighted (so east of the CPC).

    And if JtR was heading towards "home" after Berner Street, but ends up west of his destination (Mitre Square), then he must have passed the street he intended to go to in order to interact with Eddowes. And I think it fair to suggest he would only do that if he could see Eddowes, and so diverted from him homeward journey at that point.

    I've seen many suggest that JtR, when he left Berner Street, headed up to Whitechapel Road, then headed West along there in his journey to Mitre Square. His exit direction from Mitre Square to Goulston Street, heads towards Commercial Street, which I'm suggesting was the street he was heading for when he left Mitre Square, though not necessarily his final destination (I'm sticking to major streets and roads here).

    If the above is correct, then that would suggest that when JtR reached the southern end of Commercial Street, he spotted Eddowes who was probably a bit to the West, maybe in the vicinity of where she had been earlier arrested for public drunkeness, though that is just passed Goulston Street so her visibility would depend upon lighting in the area. If she's standing under a street lamp, though, she would be visible at some distance.

    Regardless of the exact location, the idea is that JtR diverts from his initially intended route, heads with Eddowes to Mitre Square, kills and mutilates her, and now has to head north east to get back on the route he initially diverted from.

    And Commercial Street fits the bill. It would make sense of his initial direction of travel from Berners Street, and it makes sense of why from Mitre Square he now doubles back, in a north easterly direction. If his intention is to get to Commercial Street, and he diverted from that path in order to kill Eddowes, those movements make sense.

    Also, we know Eddowes left the police station in the direction of Houndsditch, and would have head enough time to get to Aldgate High Street/Whitchapel Road, which would mean she could be just a bit west of Commercial Street and Whitechapel. So her known movements also fit with the suggestion, but I admit we know so little I run the risk of being accused of it being hard to come up with anything that doesn't fit.

    Yes, it makes sense. Those movements also coincide with JtR heading into the high interest zone.

    Now, while I don't expect anybody to believe my suggestion that JtR was heading to Commercial Street and then north is the only possible conclusion one can come to (it's not, even I don't believe that!), if I could beg a further indulgence and just ask that for now we run with that idea (because one great big bag of speculation can only get better if I add more, right?)

    There's a very interesting pair of "circuits" that JtR could have been following. Basically, down Commercial Street to Whitechapel, east to Vallance Road (the one just west of Buck's Row that Cross/Lechmere and Paul headed north on to find PC Mizen), which he takes and hits Hanbury to get back to Commerical Street.

    The 2nd also starts along Commercial Street, then heads down along Commercial Road (past Berner Street) to New Road, which runs north until it connects with Vallance Road to Hanbury etc.

    I've indicated those as red lines in the map below, with much of the 2nd route in orange as there is never anything that places him on those streets at all, but looking at the maps they popped out at me as completing a circuit.

    If JtR is prowling around those routes, he meets Nichols on Whitechapel, he meets Chapman on Hanbury, Stride along Commercial Road (say he's Broad Shoulders, then he spots her down Berner Street as he passes), Eddowes while heading back towards Commercial Street, and Kelly along Commercial Street. And for those who like Tabram, she fits well too, as does Alice McKenzie.

    The spatial analysis hot spots are around the north west of that, and could just possibly be indicating that JtR enters these circuit routes from that corner, perhaps coming from further along Commercial Street to the North West (The Green Line on the map below). It could be JtR comes down the Green portion of Commercial Street, hits the pubs around Hanbury and Commercial, then prowls around looking for victims.

    Click image for larger version

Name:	JackMap_KeyRoads.jpg
Views:	245
Size:	143.5 KB
ID:	798843

    And another thing that I think is of interest, is that given Annie appears to have been killed as the light was coming up (I know that too is not agreed upon, but I did say I was going to have to make some assumptions, so one more is not going make much difference by now), I think that suggests JtR must have felt he was close enough to "home" that he could risk it as all he had to do was hide any blood for a short journey. And if MJK was murdered in the morning as some argue, her location is also very close to that exit route (and the high interest zone itself). If she was killed at night, though, then the time of the murder doesn't add to this idea but it doesn't take away from it either.

    In other words, the time of the Chapman murder seems to fit easily with the current spatial analysis high interest area, and means we might also want to consider locations not too far along that Green Line.

    Anyway, thanks if you've made it this far. And again, to be clear, I in no way am saying I think the above must be correct. There are a lot of assumptions that are being made that could very well be wrong, and some of them are fatal to the whole thing (i.e. if Stride isn't a JtR victim, then the idea that Commercial was his destination when fleeing Mitre Square is not much more than a guess as there are many things north east of Mitre Square. Those who favour Cross/Lechmere, for example, might argue he was heading for Wentworth Street, which is easier to do if Stride is not a JtR victim (otherwise, where was he going?).

    And yes, the timing of the apron's arrival at Goulston Street could be wrong. If it really wasn't there until after 2, then we cannot say JtR fled NE from Mitre Square. He could have gone anywhere, and then headed to Goulston Street. And of course, Trevor's argument is that the apron piece wasn't even put there by JtR but by Eddowes herself, in which case it's a red herring. And I recognize not everyone agrees as to the time of Annie Chapman's death, or of Mary Kelly's, so again, those are debatable.

    However, that being said, I do present it for what it is, a set of conjectures that I think are sort of interesting to consider. I don't expect everyone, or even anyone, to fully agree with the choices I've made, but I do think it's one possible arrangement of things. Also, I think this makes the sightings of the Bethnal Green Botherer all the more interesting as well.

    - Jeff

    Leave a comment:


  • JeffHamm
    replied
    Originally posted by PRIVATE INVESTIGATOR 1 View Post



    When I saw the article about the Canadian researcher's theory that the murderer lived in Flower and Dean St, I thought it made sense because following his exit from Mitre Square, he travelled roughly in a north-easterly direction, which suggested that after he got to Goulston Street, his final destination was somewhere roughly NE of it.

    That would have taken him to Thrawl St, Flower and Dean St, and Fashion St.

    The other consideration is that that researcher pointed out that Flower and Dean St was a favourite domicile of criminal types, and it stands to reason that the murderer would have felt much safer among such people, where he certainly would not have stood out!

    Presumably, that is one of the reasons the police at that time zoomed in on that street and the surrounding area.

    I would have liked to have been in charge of such an investigation.
    There is an aspect of the JtR series that one should take into consideration when viewing the spatial analysis. The crime locations can also be viewed as the point of contact (as it is unlikely they travelled all that far to the crime scenes, and these analyses are fairly robust with respect to the exact locations - meaning you can jitter the points somewhat and the overall pattern will be very similar). Given that, the spatial analysis may be picking up on the commonality of the victims' spatial behaviour, and the victims all tend to have associations with that neighborhood.

    So again, while the analysis is sensitive to spatial behaviour, it always comes down to how to interpret that analysis. In either case, be these reflective of JtR or his victims spatial behaviour, concentrating the investigation in that area would be advised as being a good place to start. That investigation might mean increasing patrols, taking note of who is commonly around at night (particularly lone males), etc. One would want to cover all the bases and not get tunnel vision thinking that JtR must live in that area (although it is consistent with the implied direction of travel from Mitre Square to Goulston, such a journey also takes one to Commercial, at which point he could turn north and just head out of the area entirely, or even head south and out, though the above would suggest north as the more likely direction).

    - Jeff

    Leave a comment:


  • PRIVATE INVESTIGATOR 1
    replied
    Originally posted by JeffHamm View Post

    The third is my own set of routines.

    Rigel centres in on the area around Thrawl Street and Flower and Dean, but really one needs to view these as general regions, and not get drawn into trying to pin-point specific locations. When that is done, you can bet your bottom dollar that either the case is unsolved (so whose to know if they're wrong), or it has been solved and it is one of the times the routine does far better than it usually does. As you can see, though, all the routines focus on that north-western region.

    - Jeff


    When I saw the article about the Canadian researcher's theory that the murderer lived in Flower and Dean St, I thought it made sense because following his exit from Mitre Square, he travelled roughly in a north-easterly direction, which suggested that after he got to Goulston Street, his final destination was somewhere roughly NE of it.

    That would have taken him to Thrawl St, Flower and Dean St, and Fashion St.

    The other consideration is that that researcher pointed out that Flower and Dean St was a favourite domicile of criminal types, and it stands to reason that the murderer would have felt much safer among such people, where he certainly would not have stood out!

    Presumably, that is one of the reasons the police at that time zoomed in on that street and the surrounding area.

    I would have liked to have been in charge of such an investigation.

    Leave a comment:


  • JeffHamm
    replied
    Originally posted by DJA View Post
    Rorschach tests for Ripperologists
    ha ha! I sometimes think all of Ripperology is just one big Rorschach test as people see what they want to see, particularly when nothing is there.

    - Jeff

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  • JeffHamm
    replied
    Originally posted by PRIVATE INVESTIGATOR 1 View Post
    Many thanks.

    You say the third example is your own software or an adaptation of their software?

    I remember saying before that my guess is that if you drew a triangle, using Goulston Street, Miller's Court and Hanbury Street as the points of the triangle, Flower and Dean Street would be somewhere near the middle, possibly equidistant from the three points, or something to that effect.

    Do you know which street is in the middle?
    The third is my own set of routines.

    Rigel centres in on the area around Thrawl Street and Flower and Dean, but really one needs to view these as general regions, and not get drawn into trying to pin-point specific locations. When that is done, you can bet your bottom dollar that either the case is unsolved (so whose to know if they're wrong), or it has been solved and it is one of the times the routine does far better than it usually does. As you can see, though, all the routines focus on that north-western region.

    - Jeff

    Leave a comment:


  • DJA
    replied
    Rorschach tests for Ripperologists

    Leave a comment:


  • PRIVATE INVESTIGATOR 1
    replied
    Many thanks.

    You say the third example is your own software or an adaptation of their software?

    I remember saying before that my guess is that if you drew a triangle, using Goulston Street, Miller's Court and Hanbury Street as the points of the triangle, Flower and Dean Street would be somewhere near the middle, possibly equidistant from the three points, or something to that effect.

    Do you know which street is in the middle?

    Leave a comment:


  • JeffHamm
    replied
    Originally posted by PRIVATE INVESTIGATOR 1 View Post

    Hi Jeff


    I don't know whether you saw it, but a couple of days ago, when I was promoting my theory that the murderer lived in Spitalfields during the period in which the murders took place, I mentioned the fact that a Canadian researcher calculated that the murderer lived in Flower and Dean Street, and that I hadn't specified the street (which is probably just as well since the reaction from some members was explosive enough).

    I would be interested to know your source(s) for the police concentrating on that area.

    Here is the one I am referring to:

    Jack the Ripper 'lived on Flower and Dean Street, and may have died in a mental asylum': Expert uses algorithm to reveal details about London’s notorious killer
    • A former Canadian police officer who pioneered the use of geographical profiling thinks the Jack the Ripper lived on Flower and Dean Street
    In 1888, detectives conducted door-to-door inquiries along Flower and Dean Street in the wake of the five murders, but came up with nothing and turned their attention to other areas.


    Dr Rossmo, speaking at the Cheltenham Science Festival yesterday, said that each of the five victims had lived in doss houses within 200 yards (183 metres) of the road and had each frequented the Ten Bells Pub at Spitalfields Market, which was close by.


    He found that Flower and Dean Street is likely to have been his home, and at the very least would have been a frequent haunt.


    He said police at the time and ‘Ripperologists’ since had wrongly built their investigations around their suspects, rather than strictly following the evidence.


    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencet...ler-lived.html

    Perhaps you have seen the article before.

    If you are familiar with my now-notorious 'overwhelming evidence that the murderer lived in Spitalfields' theory, then you will know it is based on the following facts and logical deductions:

    Two of the murders took place in Spitalfields

    Following the double event, he went north-east to Goulston Street in Spitalfields

    If Pc Long's testimony is to be believed, he did not deposit the apron piece till 3/4 of an hour later than necessary, suggesting strongly that he went home in the meantime


    According to earwitness and medical evidence, he left Miller's Court at 5.45 a.m., the latest he left the scene of any murder.
    That suggests he lived nearby.

    Off the top of my head, if the murderer was living in Flower and Dean Street, he would be within very easy distance of Hanbury Street, Dorset Street, and Goulston Street, and if you formed a triangle from them, F & D should be inside it.

    The eyewitness testimony suggests that Kelly hadn't gone far to find customers on the night of her murder.
    The last sighting of Annie Chapman has her walking from Dorset Street roughly in the direction of Hanbury Street.

    Both these facts suggest that the murderer was wandering the streets of that area on both nights and met Kelly in or off Dorset Street (I recall one witness specifically mentioning her saying she was going to look for a customer in a particular street, perhaps Commercial Street, but need to check) and met Chapman in Hanbury Street.

    (Since Nichols would hardly have gone down Buck's Row on her own, and was last seen alive walking in its rough direction from Whitechapel Road, she must have met the murderer in Whitechapel Road.)

    Only a person living in Spitalfields, without work during the period of the murders, fits the bill in my opinion.

    He is wandering the streets of Spitalfields and bumps into Chapman and Kelly because he wanders those streets so often that eventually he is GOING TO bump into them.

    That makes a lot more sense than someone bumping into them on his way to work from Bethnal Green or on his day off from playing cricket in Dorset.

    And it doesn't fit Kosminski, who did not live in Spitalfields and was not known to associate with prostitutes.

    By the way, since it has been deduced by some members that Kosminski owned a dog and spoke some English - both from a newspaper report - it can also be deduced from the same source that he was religious and religious Jews certainly did not associate with prostitutes, a fact conveniently overlooked.

    The only named suspect I can think of who may have lived in Spitalfields is Barnett, but he doesn't fit the profile of a customer Kelly brought back with her in the middle of the night.

    Kelly was reportedly seen a lot that night, but no-one mentioned Barnett.


    Looking forward to seeing your reply.

    PI 1


    Yah, the Canadian Researcher is Kim Rossmo who developed the software package Rigel based upon his PhD research. He was a police officer and ended up doing research into the patterns of choices in terms of why offenders choose a particular location to commit their offence (so if you know where an offender lives, you can work out what areas they are more likely to offend in; just like if I know where you live I can work out which grocery store you are more likely to shop at). He used that knowledge to reverse engineer things, so if I know all the locations you tend to go to (your grocery store, the theatre you watch movies at, your pub, etc), I can start to estimate where you probably live type thing. It's not perfect, despite how it is often presented.

    There's other work by Canter, who has developed routines (called "Dragnet"), which uses different equations than Rigel does, but in the end I've not really found one to be better than the other (sure, a specific case might make them look different, but given a large number of cases and looking at the overall success rates they are very similar).

    Anyway, below is what the Rigel type calculations produces. When one analyses a large number of cases, 75% of the time the offender is found somewhere in that coloured region (the concentration is highest in the yellow areas, then the orange, then the purple regions)

    Click image for larger version

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    Using the routines for Dragnet the output looks like this:
    Click image for larger version

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    And again, while the specifics are a bit different (Rigel tends to lower the probability if you get too close to a crime location, while Dragnet doesn't include that "buffer zone"), both are focusing roughly the same spatial area.

    My own routines produce the following, and again, we're seeing a very similar focus area. Comparing the three different algorithms doesn't indicate any real difference in performance. All three produce very similar success rates in the long run, and each will have specific cases where it outperforms the others.

    Click image for larger version

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    Anyway, like I've said, I think these are interesting, but they are not "evidence".

    - Jeff

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  • JeffHamm
    replied
    Originally posted by Trevor Marriott View Post

    Hi Jeff
    I know you have done some sterling work on this topic, but from a practical and evidential perspective geo profiling is about as much use in a murder investigation as a chocolate teapot, especially in this case, the killer could have been a resident in another part of London and came to Whitechapel to kill and then left after he killed, he could have been a seaman who was able to kill on the times his ship was docked in either of the docks closet to Whitechapel, or any other form of itinerant traveller.

    www.trevormarriott.co.uk
    Hi Trevor,

    I wouldn't go quite so far as to dismiss it entirely, but I do agree that its utility in any investigation is often over-hyped (usually by someone trying to sell software at hugely inflated prices to vastly underfunded police forces; honestly, the actual maths are pretty straight forward and most of the software is just bells and whistles). It is, however, a bit of useful information and no case gets solved except through the putting together of information and evaluating it. It's that evaluating part that is often the stumbling block (it's either evaluated too highly or it's dismissed too readily, both are errors in my view). I fully agree that one has to consider the possibility that JtR travelled to the area where the crimes occurred rather than lived there, which is called a "commuter" pattern; an offender who commits offenses in an area that overlaps where they do other day-to-day non-criminal activities (i.e. work, live, entertainment, etc) is called a "marauder" pattern.

    The Marauder pattern is far more common, but that may be because marauders are far easier to catch. Against that, though, is that many cold-cases that are getting solved many years later (through DNA typically), are still finding that the offender from those long-cold cases was a marauder more often than not. My emphasis is that it is important to remember that a marauder doesn't mean the offender resides in the area, only that their day-to-day activities has some link to the area (it might be work, family, a pub, a club, a church, etc).

    And, we also have to consider the nature of the series, which in the case of JtR is a series of murders of prostitutes. This mean the offender has to go to an area where they can find their victims, they can't just choose any area willy-nilly but will go to areas with a high concentration of their potential victims. As such, while JtR may be familiar with the area through some aspect of his day-to-day life, it is important to keep in mind that he may live outside the immediate area and goes there because that's where he goes because he has the best chance of finding potential victims. Personally, I think if that is the case, then I would very much expect to find JtR amongst the regular punters of the area.

    Anyway, like I say, spatial analysis (geo-profiling if you like) is not in and of itself evidence any more than being a victim's spouse is evidence. All it provides is a break down of the spatial layout into zones of interest, ranked in terms of probability (just like a spouse is more likely than a friend than an acquaintance than a stranger; that's a breakdown of inter-personal-relationship space into zones of probabilities). Because it provides probabilities, not absolutes, it will not always be correct despite on the whole being useful (it's not always the spouse, but that's always a good place to start, for example).

    Basically, I caution anyone with regards to this sort of thing. Yes, it is interesting, the images look authoritative, etc, but while the information it provides is not garbage and is worth considering, keep in mind it is not gospel either. Think of it as a "well informed guess" rather than as an "answer". And finally, just because it fits your suspect doesn't mean your suspect must be JtR, and if it does not fit your suspect that doesn't mean your suspect has been refuted either.

    - Jeff

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