Analysis of the Rippers MO

[MrBarnett]

This is not a Lechmere thread, it is not in the Cross/ Lechmere board, and it will not turn into a Cross/ Lechmere thread. Anyone attempting to discuss Lechmere, will confine themselves to the forum created for that discussion and not hijack every non-related thread with suspect bias as outlined in the rules.

If you want to discuss Lechmere, there is a board for that. Do not introduce him to every off-topic thread.

So no discussion of Sutcliff either? Or is it only Lechmere who’s off-topic. That’d be rather strange on a thread about Jack the Ripper’s MO.

[Admin]

People are also advised to read Major Rule 1.

[Fleetwood Mac]

So no discussion of Sutcliff either? Or is it only Lechmere who’s off-topic. That’d be rather strange on a thread about Jack the Ripper’s MO.

I agree with Admin given the prospect of threads degenerating into a tit-for-tat cycle of verbal violence when a suspect is introduced into a barely related thread, and that aside it's common courtesy to respect house rules.

And, Sutcliffe murdered prostitutes (in the main), we could learn something from that, particularly when you consider that the OP is: "Analysis of the Ripper's MO".

[Aethelwulf]

In the event you're looking to draw a parallel, other traits may prove instructive:

1) Sutcliffe's first four victims survived his attacks.

Annie Millwood?
Ada Wilson?
Emma Smith?
Malvina Hayes?

[JeffHamm]

While the JAAPL article that Fleetwood Mac linked to has a small sample (38), it is still an interesting read. Small sample studies are more unreliable in their estimates of the underlying relationships (so they might over or under estimate the percentages), but they still, on average, are unbiased estimators of the true relationship. What that means is, if you took a whole bunch of small n studies, and averaged their estimates together, they would converge upon the true population value. There are some situations where a measurement has a sample size bias to it, which means the estimate you get from a small study might tend to over-estimate (or under-estimate) the true population value, so if you averaged a bunch of small n studies together you would still end up with an over/under estimated value.

Anyway, while I'm a skeptical about going from behaviour to personality traits aspect (i.e. the offender will have a limp type thing), looking at how rare some behaviours are, and how consistent those rare behaviours are over a series, seems a bit safer ground to me. That sort of analysis would be useful in the linkage analysis, which crimes in a series go together.

In Table 2 of that article (examples of rare/uncommon ritual behaviours), it lists evisceration, which corresponds to at least part of JtR's ritual behaviour. In their sample, 37 of the 38 engaged in some ritualistic behaviour during at least one of their offences, but only 5 of those 37 engaged in that ritual with every victim. On the other hand, most 31/37, engaged in the same ritualistic behaviour in at least 2 of their offences.

With JtR, the abdominal mutilations would not only be a ritualistic behaviour, but it's a rare one at that. It links 4 of the C5. As we see, it is not an automatic reason to dismiss Stride (for example) on the basis that he did not engage in that behaviour in her case. That doesn't mean we should ignore the fact, it only cautions how much weight we put on it, such that if there are other reasons that point to her inclusion then that should still be considered. Indeed, much of the debate around Stride's inclusion focuses on that (and I'm not wanting to start that debate here, just pointing out that the debate has often focused on the lack of mutilations and this article would be suggesting that their absence is not entirely unusual).

Moreover, it points to McKenzie as well, who also had some abdominal cuts. Not as extensive as with the 1888 victims, but the uncommonness of such wounds might suggest she be reviewed as a potential JtR victim.

Anyway, linkage analysis is something that we discuss a lot (i.e. Stride yes or no? McKenzie yes or no? Tabram yes or no? etc), and papers like this one would provide some basis for our arguments. Nothing is ever going to get around the "but it might have been this other way ...", because even if that other way is the low probability side of the data, low probability events do sometimes happen.

But, it is, I think, important for us to acknowledge that we're betting on the long odds when we resort to that.

- Jeff

[JeffHamm]

So, the area around Pinchin Street and Berner Street isn’t a high interest zone? Why’s that? Hmmmm, …

I went back and double checked, and looked at the output using my own routines (which I call Dr. Watson), Rigel (by Rossmo), and Dragnet (by Canter), all three tend to highlight the area around the Kelly and Chapman crime scenes. Dr. Watson and Dragnet, though, do suggest some interest in the area around Berner Street. Given the way the routines work, Dragnet will almost always highlight at least some area near each crime scene, and Rigel will have a tendency to at least produce a "ring" (or part of one) near each offence as well. My own routines are based upon a different approach, but part of it will also tend to do that.

The entire area highlighted in each of the outputs represents the area that, 75% of the time, contains an offender's anchor point (quite often their residence, but not always, so don't make the mistake of thinking this means there's a 75% chance that JtR lived in the coloured region; it just means there's a 75% chance that JtR has some sort of association with his daily, non-criminal, activities in that area; ie. work, a pub, etc).

If you drop the magenta zones, that would represent the 50% containment area. If you just consider the highest priority zone (yellow), then that represents the 25% containment region.

So, the highest priority area (yellow) doesn't include Berner Street (well, expect for a very small area around the Stride crime scene when using the Dragnet routines), but if you expand to consider the 50 or 75% catchment area, then both Dr. Watson and Dragnet start showing some interest there.

On the whole, if I give the three routines a collection of different offenders, then they will perform pretty much equally. For any given offender there will be one routine which does better (gets them in the lowest zone number out of the 3), but so far I've not seen any real pattern. On the whole, they all get about the same percentage in zone 1, they all require you to search about the same amount of space to reach a 50% and 75% success rate. (I think I may have used an older version of the software just now for Dr. Watson and it might be showing a slightly reduced area; the 50% zone should go out to zone 4, it's currently ending at zone 3, so I suspect the 75% area is also a bit compressed - it's no big deal as the general idea is clear).

At some point, I want to combine the three, and see if that ends up improving things resulting in smaller search areas required to achieve 50% and 75% containment, and hopefully shift more into zone 1. It's possible, though, that if one combines them that things would get worse.

Anyway, if we look at these for overall commonalities, they all are pointing towards that north-west area, and extend north of Hanbury Street. That is towards some of the areas where the Bethnal Green Botherer is reported to have scared some woman as reported in the news papers. While I don't want to make too big of a thing about that, it does peak my interest.

And if we look at the article Fleetwood Mac pointed us to, it is not uncommon for offenders like JtR to be involved in other criminal/anti-social behaviours. So, we have some reports of anti-social behaviour (the scaring of woman) by a fellow in the direction the eye wonders when following the spatial analysis patterns for the JtR offenses. Maybe I should expand my map, and enter the BGB's location as a "potential location of interest" and see what adding that information would do the spatial maps?

Again, spatial analysis, and even the behaviour profiling, should be viewed not as "evidence" but as suggestions to consider. It's making me consider, for example, the BGB, and if we had more information on him, we could then evaluate if we need to consider him further.

- Jeff

[Fiver]

Here's an article from the American Academy of Psychiatry and the Law, Ritual and Signature in Serial Sexual Homicide:

Ritual and Signature in Serial Sexual Homicide | Journal of the American Academy of Psychiatry and the Law (jaapl.org)

The empirical data consists of 38 offenders and their 162 victims.

Thank you for the link. Looking at the list of ritual behaviors, the Ripper seems to have engaged in Overkill, Posing, Mutilation, Trophies, and Evisceration making for a distinctive signature.

When it comes to theme, it's far harder to analyze JtR. Depending on how the themes are defined, there seem to be elements of Control, Rage, Degradation, and Sexual fixation.

[JeffHamm]

Ok, just out of curiosity, I put a "6th offense location" NE of Hanbury Street as a rough estimate of where the BGB sighting was, just to see how things might change if that were to be considered. I only used my own routines because those are the default settings when I load up the software. I'm not going to show the output as it is based upon a "dart throw" rather than actually placing the new location properly (I don't have the details at hand, and also it would be in an area off the map and in the white space, so I would need to create a new version).

Anyway, placing an offense up in that area does pull the highest priority zones up in that direction, with Miller's Court shifting out of zone 1 and Hanbury street now at the west end of zone 1. Note, adding other locations, say Tabram or McKenzie, doesn't really change things all that much on the whole, though of course there will be an influence as new data is added.

So, my curiosity is now well and truly peaked and perhaps I should dig back through the threads and find out all I can on this Bethnal Green Botherer. If I recall, there's a sighting of a fellow near Dorset Street as well who acted similarly, and had a similar appearance. If so, that makes him even more of interest (though of course we can't know for sure if those are two sightings of the same person, but we can explore the possibilities).

- Jeff

[GBinOz]

Moreover, it points to McKenzie as well, who also had some abdominal cuts. Not as extensive as with the 1888 victims, but the uncommonness of such wounds might suggest she be reviewed as a potential JtR victim.

- Jeff

Hi Jeff,

The Alice McKenzie murder is of particular interest as it's candidacy would eliminate a number of suspects. However, the M.O. compared to other victims is contradictory. Phillip's evidence at the autopsy indicates a return to the double cut to the throat, although they might more accurately be described as extended stab wounds rather than slicing cuts:
The wound in the neck was 4 in. long, reaching from the back part of the muscles, which were almost entirely divided. It reached to the fore part of the neck to a point 4 in. below the chin. There was a second incision, which must have commenced from behind and immediately below the first. The cause of death was syncope, arising from the loss of blood through the divided carotid vessels, and such death probably was almost instantaneous.

However, the marks on the abdomen were attributed by Phillips to five fingernail scratches rather than cuts from a knife:
There were five marks on the abdomen, and, with the exception of one, were on the left side of the abdomen. The largest one was the lowest, and the smallest one was the exceptional one mentioned, and was typical of a finger-nail mark. They were coloured, and in my opinion were caused by the finger-nails and thumb nail of a hand. I have on a subsequent examination assured myself of the correctness of this conclusion.
[Coroner] Are the injuries to the abdomen similar to those you have seen in the other cases? - No, Sir. I may volunteer the statement that the injuries to the throat are not similar to those in the other cases.
[Coroner] Were the finger-nail marks on the body those of the woman herself? - My impression is that they were caused by another hand. These marks were caused after the throat was cut.

Scratching rather than cutting indicates to me a different signature involved in the McKenzie attack. If Stride is to be given consideration as a JtR victim that was subject to interruption, then surely Coles must also be included under that category.

Best regards, George

[JeffHamm]

Hi Jeff,

The Alice McKenzie murder is of particular interest as it's candidacy would eliminate a number of suspects. However, the M.O. compared to other victims is contradictory. Phillip's evidence at the autopsy indicates a return to the double cut to the throat, although they might more accurately be described as extended stab wounds rather than slicing cuts:
The wound in the neck was 4 in. long, reaching from the back part of the muscles, which were almost entirely divided. It reached to the fore part of the neck to a point 4 in. below the chin. There was a second incision, which must have commenced from behind and immediately below the first. The cause of death was syncope, arising from the loss of blood through the divided carotid vessels, and such death probably was almost instantaneous.

However, the marks on the abdomen were attributed by Phillips to five fingernail scratches rather than cuts from a knife:
There were five marks on the abdomen, and, with the exception of one, were on the left side of the abdomen. The largest one was the lowest, and the smallest one was the exceptional one mentioned, and was typical of a finger-nail mark. They were coloured, and in my opinion were caused by the finger-nails and thumb nail of a hand. I have on a subsequent examination assured myself of the correctness of this conclusion.
[Coroner] Are the injuries to the abdomen similar to those you have seen in the other cases? - No, Sir. I may volunteer the statement that the injuries to the throat are not similar to those in the other cases.
[Coroner] Were the finger-nail marks on the body those of the woman herself? - My impression is that they were caused by another hand. These marks were caused after the throat was cut.

Scratching rather than cutting indicates to me a different signature involved in the McKenzie attack. If Stride is to be given consideration as a JtR victim that was subject to interruption, then surely Coles must also be included under that category.

Best regards, George

Hi George,

Oh, that is interesting. I don't recall ever seeing the abdominal injuries described as finger nail marks, but thought they were described as knife wounds but more shallow than those of the 1888 victims. Some have suggested the idea that the knife was different, and just not up to the requirements for the abdominal mutilations, and that would also account for the difference in the throat injuries (perhaps).

However, if those injuries are not knife wounds (as the above indicates) that would greatly change things. Interesting.

- Jeff

[FrankO]

Hi Jeff,

The Alice McKenzie murder is of particular interest as it's candidacy would eliminate a number of suspects. However, the M.O. compared to other victims is contradictory. Phillip's evidence at the autopsy indicates a return to the double cut to the throat, although they might more accurately be described as extended stab wounds rather than slicing cuts:
The wound in the neck was 4 in. long, reaching from the back part of the muscles, which were almost entirely divided. It reached to the fore part of the neck to a point 4 in. below the chin. There was a second incision, which must have commenced from behind and immediately below the first. The cause of death was syncope, arising from the loss of blood through the divided carotid vessels, and such death probably was almost instantaneous.

However, the marks on the abdomen were attributed by Phillips to five fingernail scratches rather than cuts from a knife:
There were five marks on the abdomen, and, with the exception of one, were on the left side of the abdomen. The largest one was the lowest, and the smallest one was the exceptional one mentioned, and was typical of a finger-nail mark. They were coloured, and in my opinion were caused by the finger-nails and thumb nail of a hand. I have on a subsequent examination assured myself of the correctness of this conclusion.
[Coroner] Are the injuries to the abdomen similar to those you have seen in the other cases? - No, Sir. I may volunteer the statement that the injuries to the throat are not similar to those in the other cases.
[Coroner] Were the finger-nail marks on the body those of the woman herself? - My impression is that they were caused by another hand. These marks were caused after the throat was cut.

Scratching rather than cutting indicates to me a different signature involved in the McKenzie attack. If Stride is to be given consideration as a JtR victim that was subject to interruption, then surely Coles must also be included under that category.

Hi George,

Good post. The only thing I don't agree much with is your last remark. While Stride is mainly included because of the timing, we, obviously, can't say this about Coles. Furthermore, the MO in her case deviates from that of the 1888 murders in that (Dr. Phillips believed) she was thrown to the ground and then had her throat cut in a sort of sawing manner with a knife that wasn't very sharp.

All the best,
Frank

[Harry D]

Scratching rather than cutting indicates to me a different signature involved in the McKenzie attack. If Stride is to be given consideration as a JtR victim that was subject to interruption, then surely Coles must also be included under that category.

Best regards, George

I found this interesting tidbit on the old board:

"Significantly, Peter Sutcliffe once refrained from killing for almost a year. When finally he resumed operations, he abandoned his trademark hammers and knives and instead used a length of rope to garrotte his victim. Once she had been killed, Sutcliffe tore away at her abdomen with his fingernails.

Subsequent to his arrest, it emerged that Sutcliffe had been subject to close police scrutiny just prior to his temporary abandonment of operations. Indeed, such was the effect of this police interest in him that he began to experience panic attacks. It also emerged that he'd altered his mode of attack in order to fool the police. He intimated his belief that he would receive no further police attention if the Yorkshire Ripper investigational team rejected his latest killing from the accepted series.

So Alice McKenzie may well have been killed nine months after Mary Kelly; the knife may well have been different from that which was utilized on the earlier victims; her injuries may well have been less severe than those inflicted hitherto. But once viewed in context of the Sutcliffe example, none of these factors are in themselves sufficient to render McKenzie a non-Ripper victim. And the coincidence of the abdominal fingernail scratches is intriguing, to say the least."

[GBinOz]

I found this interesting tidbit on the old board:

"Significantly, Peter Sutcliffe once refrained from killing for almost a year. When finally he resumed operations, he abandoned his trademark hammers and knives and instead used a length of rope to garrotte his victim. Once she had been killed, Sutcliffe tore away at her abdomen with his fingernails.

Subsequent to his arrest, it emerged that Sutcliffe had been subject to close police scrutiny just prior to his temporary abandonment of operations. Indeed, such was the effect of this police interest in him that he began to experience panic attacks. It also emerged that he'd altered his mode of attack in order to fool the police. He intimated his belief that he would receive no further police attention if the Yorkshire Ripper investigational team rejected his latest killing from the accepted series.

So Alice McKenzie may well have been killed nine months after Mary Kelly; the knife may well have been different from that which was utilized on the earlier victims; her injuries may well have been less severe than those inflicted hitherto. But once viewed in context of the Sutcliffe example, none of these factors are in themselves sufficient to render McKenzie a non-Ripper victim. And the coincidence of the abdominal fingernail scratches is intriguing, to say the least."

Hi Harry D,

Thank you for sharing that information. It provides evidence that serial killers can cease their activities for a time, and are not adverse to changing their M.O./Signature. The coincidence of the abdominal fingernail scratches is indeed intriguing.

Cheers, George

[GBinOz]

Hi George,

Good post. The only thing I don't agree much with is your last remark. While Stride is mainly included because of the timing, we, obviously, can't say this about Coles. Furthermore, the MO in her case deviates from that of the 1888 murders in that (Dr. Phillips believed) she was thrown to the ground and then had her throat cut in a sort of sawing manner with a knife that wasn't very sharp.

All the best,
Frank

Hi Frank,

Always a pleasure to hear from you. There are differences but, the article shared by Harry D shows that changes in M.O. are not too unusual. Also, Phillips thought that there was a "very great dissimilarity" between the neck wounds inflicted on Chapman and Stride. I am maintaining my sitting position on the fence in both those cases, and on McKenzie.

Best regards, George

[FrankO]

Always a pleasure to hear from you. There are differences but, the article shared by Harry D shows that changes in M.O. are not too unusual. Also, Phillips thought that there was a "very great dissimilarity" between the neck wounds inflicted on Chapman and Stride. I am maintaining my sitting position on the fence in both those cases, and on McKenzie.

Hi George,

I have no problems with your position regarding the 3 victims you mention. In fact, I know of a case of one serial killer who applied 2 (or even 3) distinctly different MO's for different types of victims, so changes in MO do occur sometimes. His name is Cedric Maake, who, in the Wemmer Pan area of Johannesburg, killed men and women walking alone, whom he bludgeoned to death with rocks. But in that same area he attacked couples in cars, shooting the men and raping the women. And then he also killed tailors in the inner city area, attacking them in their shops with hammers.

As to the MO used in the Coles case, I still think she probably wasn't a Ripper victim.

All the best,
Frank