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A Hypothetical Question.

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  • #31
    Originally posted by Herlock Sholmes View Post

    I don’t know NBFN but I’d say that just because it possibly/probably wasn’t mentioned after the discovery of the body doesn’t mean that it didn’t exist or that anything suspicious occurred (apart from a murder of course).
    It is not 'just because' there is not a single mention from anyone, which has the effect of placing a pony and cart in the yard.
    An analysis of times and dimensions, also leads to doubts over the presence of the pony and cart.

    I appreciate your response, but have to say that I've seen this pattern a few times now; pick out the most recent point argued in favor of a theory, ignore or all the preceding points, and then imply that the arguer is basing everything on that single point, and therefore the theory lacks robustness.

    We simply start from the point that when Diemschutz jumps down from the cart and strikes a match, the pony and cart effectively cease to exist.

    Maybe Diemschutz got one of the club members to take it to the stable where he kept it, wherever that was?
    'Maybe Diemschutz ...'; 'I'd have thought ...'; 'I just think that ...'

    In my opinion, phrases like these indicate that Diemschutz' story has been accepted uncritically.

    One would at least have to acknowledge that from the point Louis returns from his search for police, to the time the gates are closed, is a very small window.

    After the crime the cart played no part in the investigation and so the police naturally had no interest in it.
    It is precisely because the pony and cart are irrelevant to the immediate investigation, that no one realizes they are not there.

    In fact we have no indication that the police on site were even aware of the pony and cart's existence, let alone of Diemschutz' story regarding.

    I’d have thought it unlikely that Diemschutz would have left it near to the door so maybe he drove if further into the yard.
    Well now you're just talking ho

    I just think that you’re looking for a mystery here were none exists. I’m not having a dig because you’re exploring all angles NBFN. You're right to do it. I just think that on this particular issue there’s nothing there. Just my opinion of course.
    There can be no mystery if the possibility of anything other than the 'official story' is protected by explaining away all of it's issues.
    Last edited by NotBlamedForNothing; 02-21-2020, 12:33 AM.
    Andrew's the man, that is not blamed for nothing

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    • #32
      Originally posted by Wyatt Earp View Post

      Sadly predictable.

      Ignore the facts which suggest that the two messages at the back of Bury’s residence were written by the same person, which you evidently don’t want to face, and cry “shoehorning” instead.
      Your definition of the word ‘facts’ needs a bit of working on.
      Regards

      Herlock




      “ Herlock is the cleverest man that I’ve ever met.” - Stephen Hawking.
      “ I wish that I could have achieved half as much as Herlock.”- Neil Armstrong.
      “ What a voice Herlock has.” - Luciano Pavarotti.
      “ I wish that I could dump Harry for Herlock.” - Meghan Markle.
      “ I know that it’s not good to be jealous but I just can’t help it.” - John Holmes.

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      • #33
        Originally posted by NotBlamedForNothing View Post

        It is not 'just because' there is not a single mention from anyone, which has the effect of placing a pony and cart in the yard.
        An analysis of times and dimensions, also leads to doubts over the presence of the pony and cart.

        I appreciate your response, but have to say that I've seen this pattern a few times now; pick out the most recent point argued in favor of a theory, ignore or all the preceding points, and then imply that the arguer is basing everything on that single point, and therefore the theory lacks robustness.

        We simply start from the point that when Diemschutz jumps down from the cart and strikes a match, the pony and cart effectively cease to exist.
        Hi NBFN,

        That's a bit strongly put I think. The pony and cart do not really "cease to exist" per se, they simply cease to be mentioned in the testimony, which is quite a different thing. Other things also cease to be mentioned, such as the match Deimshutz strikes. Because the pony and cart cease to be mentioned, we cannot say for sure what became of them, but the absence of evidence is not the same thing as evidence of absence (concluding they did not, in fact, exist in the first place is to make that claim - because I do not have evidence of where they were I conclude that absence of evidence indicates evidence of absence, which is an invalid conclusion). Clear evidence of absence would be someone clearly stating there was not a pony and cart present, and we do not have such a thing. Indirect evidence of absence might be showing he police asked him where it was, noting it was no longer present, etc.

        Given pony and carts would be considered normal, everyday items, such things often go without mention. We do not have, for example, a description of the various doctor's apparel (as far as I recall), but we do not conclude they were naked simply because their clothes are not mentioned. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence, after all.

        It also would be odd for Deimshutz to be talking about arriving with his pony and cart if, in fact, there wasn't one there. It's noted absence in the vicinity would reasonably be expected to prompt the police to ask him where it was, but we do not have such questions recorded. Maybe they did ask him and he pointed it out, or maybe they could see it and had no need to ask (note how the absence of the question being recorded is not evidence they did not ask him). It appears, however, that his claim to have arrived in his pony and cart did not raise suspicions deemed worthy of recording, and that would be the case if the pony and cart were readily apparent, even if they had been moved down into the yard away from the immediate crime scene. Without something to indicate the pony and cart were actually absent, other than it's lack of being mentioned, it being stated to be there is evidence in favour of it actually being there. To suggest it wasn't requires demonstrating something that indicates it actually was not present, which requires more than it simply no longer being mentioned in the recorded record.

        - Jeff

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        • #34
          Damn sure that's more than one sentence.

          How about you two continuing on the appropriate thread.
          My name is Dave. You cannot reach me through Debs email account

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          • #35
            Hi NBFN,

            Just to clarify, what was Diemschutz's reason for inventing his pony? How did that specific detail benefit the club conspiracy?

            I get your arguments in favour of his timing being off, potential reasons to cover for his mate Schwartz etc, but, given that he stabled his pony at George Yard, it would be reasonable to assume that's where it actually was if he didn't ride it into Dutfields Yard. So why not just say he arrived on foot? If he invented the pony, and told the police he arrived on it, but it wasn't actually in evidence, would it not be a totally needless risk to lie about it, given that a PC could spot the deception and become suspicious?
            I'm not saying he didn't lie, but if he did, how was that going to benefit anyone?
            Last edited by Al Bundy's Eyes; 02-21-2020, 08:23 AM. Reason: Ruddy Typos
            Them's the vagaries.

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            • #36
              Sorry, that's not a hypothetical question. It's an actual question.
              Them's the vagaries.

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              • #37
                There is mention of a cart and horse on that street by the club just after 1am. There is not when the authorities were there, nor I believe does any club attendee mention it. Therefore I submit what Fanny heard just after 1 was the cart and horse being taken to where they were kept, George Yard, just after 1am, and before the authorities get there. Its not reasonable that the cart and horse that Fanny heard is yet another cart and horse on that at street by that address at that time. The street had been essentially deserted since 12:35, and Fanny was at her door until 1. She didn't see any cart and horse. I suspect Fanny missed Louis's arrival at around 12:40 because at that time she was visiting her door sporadically, she didn't remain continuously at the door until 12:50. Until 1.
                Michael Richards

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                • #38
                  Originally posted by Michael W Richards View Post
                  There is mention of a cart and horse on that street by the club just after 1am. There is not when the authorities were there, nor I believe does any club attendee mention it. Therefore I submit what Fanny heard just after 1 was the cart and horse being taken to where they were kept, George Yard, just after 1am, and before the authorities get there. Its not reasonable that the cart and horse that Fanny heard is yet another cart and horse on that at street by that address at that time. The street had been essentially deserted since 12:35, and Fanny was at her door until 1. She didn't see any cart and horse. I suspect Fanny missed Louis's arrival at around 12:40 because at that time she was visiting her door sporadically, she didn't remain continuously at the door until 12:50. Until 1.
                  Mystery over.
                  Regards

                  Herlock




                  “ Herlock is the cleverest man that I’ve ever met.” - Stephen Hawking.
                  “ I wish that I could have achieved half as much as Herlock.”- Neil Armstrong.
                  “ What a voice Herlock has.” - Luciano Pavarotti.
                  “ I wish that I could dump Harry for Herlock.” - Meghan Markle.
                  “ I know that it’s not good to be jealous but I just can’t help it.” - John Holmes.

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                  • #39
                    Wrong way.

                    George Yard was at the rear of 145 Cable Street.
                    My name is Dave. You cannot reach me through Debs email account

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                    • #40
                      Originally posted by DJA View Post
                      Wrong way.

                      George Yard was at the rear of 145 Cable Street.
                      Ahh....but Fanny could not be sure which way the cart and horse were headed though. She heard a cart and horse, which she then suggested was perhaps the steward arriving, but she really cannot verify which direction it came from. Nor did she try to.
                      Michael Richards

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                      • #41
                        She heard it pass by.
                        My name is Dave. You cannot reach me through Debs email account

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                        • #42
                          Let put it this way...when Louis arrives and his pony shies, he may have continued through to the yard where he could circle the cart and pony round to take it back out. This yard had stables, unused stables, but surely enough room to turn around a small cart and pony. They did it when they manufactured sacks there.

                          Louis arrives around 12:40...activity begins, members are called down..the cart and pony are moved through the passageway into the yard and circled round to leave, Fanny is still indoors. Some people go out calling for help, they come back with Spooner following them. Louis and other members are gathered round the woman lying inside the gates. Its around 12:45 now. Brown sees the young couple at the corner. Fanny goes to her door at 12:50...sees no-one on the street. Sees no-one arriving. Sees Goldstein as he walks past the gates around 12:55...he looks in and keeps going. Likely waved off by people around the body. Fanny goes indoors at 1 and a few minutes later hears the cart and horse leaving. Louis and some others now formally head out for the police, its just after 1. Fanny after hearing some hullabaloo comes back to her door and goes to the gates.

                          That works for me anyway. And it means...Louis lied about what time he arrived, and punctuated with "precisely", none of the club staff report the fact that the men Spooner saw were not Louis and Issac[s] as is generally presumed, and Fanny didn't hear the cart arrive, but rather the opposite. It also means that the event that Israel later adds to the mix either did not occur at all, or that it happened in a different spot and at a different time. Since this all takes place close to the time Liz is cut, I would suggest Liz and her killer could have been seen from someone inside the passageway leaving through the gates, anytime after she disappears from sight around 12:35. Meaning...Israel could have seen Liz struggling with someone inside the gates and walked past them out into the street at around 12:35-12:40. Which is when Louis pulls up. Bad Guy cuts Liz, and slips by Louis into the street and away, or goes further into the passageway or into the club. That Bad Guy could well be the man Israel claims followed him.

                          If that sighting happened the way and place and time I suggest, then the story Israel later gives cannot be seen as anything but an attempt to take this events start onto the street and off the property, presumably to protect the club. BSM is actually Bad Guy in passageway.
                          Last edited by Michael W Richards; 02-21-2020, 02:13 PM.
                          Michael Richards

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                          • #43
                            Originally posted by DJA View Post
                            She heard it pass by.
                            She heard a cart and horse...outside. Which doesn't conflict with anything I said. But thanks for playing.
                            Michael Richards

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                            • #44
                              There is a thread already dedicated to Louis's pony and cart, why is this thread being taken over with it?
                              dustymiller
                              aka drstrange

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                              • #45
                                Originally posted by JeffHamm View Post

                                The pony and cart do not really "cease to exist" per se, they simply cease to be mentioned in the testimony, which is quite a different thing.
                                Aside from the fact that I said 'the pony and cart effectively cease to exist', this is another 'just because' response.
                                The cart is in the way. The cart is in the darkness.
                                I cover this in detail in this post.
                                The fact that a pony and cart were an everyday thing, does not make the issue go away.
                                Andrew's the man, that is not blamed for nothing

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