Where did the Ripper likely live?

[Raoul's Obsession]

now now children, quit fighting and lets sing a song... enough playschool.

Firstly, Colin R. I probably missed your original introduction of your beautiful colour coded probability distribution of likelihood for the murderer's abode, but, what is the maths/ assumptions that it is based on? I assume that it is based on knowledge of previous serial killers and the likelihood that they lived near their crime scenes? Sorry, if I haven't found the explanation...

As for Eddowes and Morris... People on this (and other) threads seem to put a great deal of weight into the beats of the police officers. It was simply impossible for anyone to know where a given police officer would be at any given time - down to the level of accuracy that is often reported on these boards. Studying beats would tell you which direction an officer was coming from, and it would tell you (on average) how long a beat took to complete, but that is all. Yes, that's powerful knowledge, but it doesn't mean that you can say 'oh, it's 1.44, he'll be coming rounf the corner of duke street now!'. There were many reasons for why a policeman on beat would stop - if something suspicious turned up, it was their job to investigate it, and this would have taken time. Once a policeman has made a few laps of their circuit, small increases in the duration of the beat will compound themselves making impossible to predict where a given person will be at a given time.

Seeing things from this perspective, I think you need to put some emphasis on luck. Fleetwood, you present to really fantastic alternatives, but in the light of not being able to know when the beat policeman will enter the square, either of these must be taken as being equally likely. The fact is, the ripper couldn't have known. I could just as easily suggest that seeing Lawende an co. was the inspiration for the ripper to say to Eddowes "come on, lets go somewhere more private", while Morris opening his door was the ripper's cue to leave the seen.

Raoul

[Raoul's Obsession]

please ignore the terrible spelling in the above post - I've just reread it and appologise for not doing so prior to hitting submit.

[GregBaron]

Sentry or Watchman?

Hi Raoul's Obsession,

Poor grammar, spelling and punctuation are endemic on these boards so don’t be too hard on yourself. This is an informal forum where leniency is the rule. With that said, I do wish some were a bit more careful with the language as misinterpretations often occur simply because of poor English.

Nevertheless, your point about police beats is well taken. Certainly it isn’t machine rigid. I think the ripper was mostly lucky with perhaps a cat-like sense of danger.

Also, an correct me if I’m wrong, but I don’t think the policeman had their lights shining constantly but only lit them when needed……I’m not certain about this though…

Are we serious expecting Morris to be on sentry?

Actually Monty, night watchman and sentry are virtually synonymous, Morris was supposed to watch whatever buildings he was in charge of, presumably to prevent theft……….how diligent he was at these duties is unknown…..Should he have seen or heard a couple traipsing from Church passage to a dark corner?...................Again, unknown….


Greg

[Monty]

Greg,

By sentry I obviously meant on the door.

Morris was no mere Nightwatchman. As we know, he had other duties within the building and was actually sweeping the stairs. His domain was Kearley & Tonge and its premises not Mitre Square. So to question why he did not see all and hear all is rather unfair.

Raoul,

Whilst it is obvious that events may hamper a beat, in those wee hours nothing happened to Watkins. He states this.

It is well known offenders did note beats and this is the reason why the City Police reversed their beats that night. To prevent such things.

Beat Constables were expected to conduct their beats at 2 1/2 mph and Beat Sergeants, when inspecting a Beat Bobby would calculate where he should be and meet him there (see Andrews in the McKenzie case).

Obviously matters arose but these were not regular.

So yes, you could roughly pinpoint the location of a Bobby on the beat, though not rely on it completely.

Monty

[GregBaron]

Points well taken...

Greg,

By sentry I obviously meant on the door.

Morris was no mere Nightwatchman. As we know, he had other duties within the building and was actually sweeping the stairs. His domain was Kearley & Tonge and its premises not Mitre Square. So to question why he did not see all and hear all is rather unfair.

Yes Monty, I realize he had his clean up duties on Saturday morning, I believe the rest of the week he smoked his pipe from 1 to 2. Fair enough. No, I don't believe he was pasted to the door either. What he did to lessen the tedium is anyone's guess. And you're right again, Mitre Square is not his concern but.................if he opened his door at 1:42 say, onto a court which some have suggested is an echo chamber, and heard nothing..............well, if nothing else I'd call it a bit surprising.................

Thanks for your point about the cop beats.......regularity does seem to be the rule although I doubt Jack cared.....


Greg

[Monty]

I wouldn't Greg, as there is no reason to state Jack wasn't done n dusted by that time, and long gone.

Monty

[GregBaron]

How long did it take?

I wouldn't Greg, as there is no reason to state Jack wasn't done n dusted by that time, and long gone.

Perhaps Monty, that is if you're a Lawende discounter, if not, well, then Jack was a super speed demon and a quiet one at that........



Greg

[Monty]

Well its one of two isn't it Greg?

And if the latter, then yeah, he was a speed demon in slippers.

Monty

[Colin Roberts]

..., Colin R. I probably missed your original introduction of your beautiful colour coded probability distribution of likelihood for the murderer's abode, but, what is the maths/ assumptions that it is based on? I assume that it is based on knowledge of previous serial killers and the likelihood that they lived near their crime scenes? Sorry, if I haven't found the explanation...

Many of the more intricate geographic profile models are based, at least in part, on empirical data, Raoul. Mine, which relies on its relative simplicity, to afford a greater degree of genuine practicality, is based upon various statistical methods that are used in the analysis of dispersion, as well as my own theory (i.e. a set of self-conceived 'rules-of-thumb'), regarding the presumed geographic dispersion of various forms of routine human activity.

I am continuing this discussion, in a different thread, to which I provide the following interactive link:

"Where did the Ripper likely live?" - Take Two