Where did the Ripper likely live?

[Fleetwood Mac]

Monty:

Well you're presuming first of all that she was soliciting at the time she was killed, which we don't know for certain.

And you're also suggesting that, presuming she was soliciting, that she made use of a square that not only could be accessed via three different paths but one which, by your own account, she could only use - or use with some degree of safety - for one hour out of every week.

Wouldn't you think that she'd be hunting out better, more discreet locations if that were the case?

Cheers,
Adam.

Adam,

It's a bit tricky to explain why she was in a dark corner of a square if not prostituion.

And, she did actually pick a discreet spot. It seems there weren't many people around. Unlike Berner Street, there's no mention of couples, people milling about buying their supper etc. Take away the murder and she would have been gone with no one any the wiser.

[Rubyretro]

[QUOTE]

Why would the club be the thing that mattered most to him, Ruby?[/QUOTE

]

That the location could have been the important thing, and would explain the extra risk taking, is just a point that stands on it's own as a viable 'possibility'.

Personally, I think that it is possible that he wanted to place the blame on a jewish person -and hence his hightailing it to a spot near where other jewish men were coming out of a different club, to commit another murder. And then choosing to drop the apron piece in a building with mainly jewish residents en-route. But that's just me.

Concerning Mitre Square : it is also just a possibility that the killer had worked at the warehouses, knew Morris and his pipe smoking habits, and had noted the Policeman's beat. It depends on whether you think that the killer was just 'lucky' not to have been caught, or used a degree of planning in advance, knowledge and craftiness to evade capture.

I don't myself think that Eddowes was a 'planned' victim -but that she was an occasional prostitute, that knew where to get business when she wanted, and also had some 'knowledge' of the spot that she chose. She presented herself to the killer on the wrong night at the wrong time. Again that is just my personal conviction.

[Monty]

The beat had been altered as of 9.45pm.

Monty

[Sarah]

I've always been a bit dubious about Eddowes being a prostitute - even a casual one. I suppose I also think that perhaps if JtR did indeed kill Stride and needed another kill then I've always thought it possible that he may have just killed the first woman on her own. She'd just been released which explains the hour and why she was on her own. I know it's hard to explain her presence in that dark corner if she wasn't but it's not impossible that she was dragged. Well, anyway, that's just my view.

Sarah

[Adam Went]

Monty:

To be honest, I also believe that Eddowes was most likely soliciting at the time of her murder and this was how she came to be where she was with who she was, basically for the same reasons which you have already listed, but it is certainly not 100% set in stone and I think it's always very dangerous to build assumptions from something which is not necessarily a fact in the first place, which is what you were doing. One must be cautious with their approach.

Morris stated that he sometimes had to 'usher' women and men from that corner in the Square. If. and I state if, Eddowes knew of Morris's routine then she would have utilised that hour in my opinion. Once 2pm came and went she may have moved elsewhere to commit the act.

Given the condition we know that she was in earlier that evening, I don't think that she was in a position where the timetable of Morris would have been at the forefront of her mind.

Besides, there's no reason to suspect that Morris's routine went from the dot of the hour to the dot of the hour, what if he was 15 or 20 minutes early or late on certain nights?

Wherever a prostitute could or would take their clients, there was still a risk involved. IMO it just wasn't in a woman like Catherine Eddowes, in the situation she was in, to be as calculating and methodical with her times and locations as that. It was get a client, get the money, and be gone....

Fleetwood:

Let's just say - and this is absolutely just as a hypothetical here, as an alternate solution, I am not advocating this point of view as fact in any way, shape or form:

Eddowes knew the man she was talking to outside the passage. They stopped for a quick chinwag and then went their seperate ways. Catherine went into Mitre Square alone and wandered over to the darkest corner of the square as all was quiet there and she needed to go to the toilet. Whilst in the square, Jack passes through, spots her and approaches her - being in the dark and in a pretty poor condition, she has not the time to react before he grabs her - or, alternatively, he approaches her IN the square on the premise of 'business'.....

Just food for thought, my point is simply that there are alternatives to the generally accepted theories.

Sarah:

I think we can be fairly sure that Eddowes went into the corner, on whatever grounds, of her own free will, it's the rest that raises more questions than answers. I think you're quite right to question whether or not she was soliciting but the sad truth is that, whether or not they wanted to, most of those women had to be prostitutes on at least a casual basis just in order to survive.

Cheers,
Adam.

[Monty]

Monty:

To be honest, I also believe that Eddowes was most likely soliciting at the time of her murder and this was how she came to be where she was with who she was, basically for the same reasons which you have already listed, but it is certainly not 100% set in stone and I think it's always very dangerous to build assumptions from something which is not necessarily a fact in the first place, which is what you were doing. One must be cautious with their approach.

Morris stated that he sometimes had to 'usher' women and men from that corner in the Square. If. and I state if, Eddowes knew of Morris's routine then she would have utilised that hour in my opinion. Once 2pm came and went she may have moved elsewhere to commit the act.

Given the condition we know that she was in earlier that evening, I don't think that she was in a position where the timetable of Morris would have been at the forefront of her mind.

Besides, there's no reason to suspect that Morris's routine went from the dot of the hour to the dot of the hour, what if he was 15 or 20 minutes early or late on certain nights?

Wherever a prostitute could or would take their clients, there was still a risk involved. IMO it just wasn't in a woman like Catherine Eddowes, in the situation she was in, to be as calculating and methodical with her times and locations as that. It was get a client, get the money, and be gone....

Sarah:

I think we can be fairly sure that Eddowes went into the corner, on whatever grounds, of her own free will, it's the rest that raises more questions than answers. I think you're quite right to question whether or not she was soliciting but the sad truth is that, whether or not they wanted to, most of those women had to be prostitutes on at least a casual basis just in order to survive.

Cheers,
Adam.

If you also believe Eddowes was prostituting herself Adam then why the diddly are you lecturing me?

Very odd.

Eddowes didnt need to be calculating, St Botolphs did that for her.

And Morris, an Ex Met man, I suspect had a fairly regimented work ethic. Which was the norm to a lot of manufactuiring premises.

Hi Sarah,

Its plausible, however stament evidence states it unlikely.

Monty

[Adam Went]

Monty:

I am simply pointing out that we shouldn't build assumptions from something which is not necessarily a fact in the first place - i.e. that Eddowes was soliciting at the time of her murder. That's how myths start, and the suggestion that she knew about the times it was safe to use the Square and so forth almost lean back towards that old theory that she had already planned a rendezvous with somebody at the square for that night, and THAT I do think is a load of rubbish. Nobody saw her or can testify to her actions between the time of her release from the cop shop and the time she was spotted by Lawende and his group. True, only half an hour or so had elapsed, but what happened in that half hour and where she went and so forth could be crucial, given it wouldn't have taken the full half hour to walk that distance.

Indeed, as i've said before, IMO one must take the statements of Lawende and his group with a generous pinch of salt, given he attitudes afterwards of Harris and, in particular, Levy.

As for Morris, working in the police force and working in a warehouse are two very different things. Have you not read the ample stories of the night watchmen and the like who worked alone in places like that of a night and would doze off at intervals or generally slacken from the duties they were supposed to be performing? If one is working alone and at no risk of being caught, why not? I'm not saying Morris was like that and indeed his life in the police force may have made him regimented, but I think it's a bit naive to think that he wasn't, on occasion at least, prone to act like a vast amount of his similar colleagues did.....

Cheers,
Adam.

[Monty]

Adam,

You are preaching to the converted.

A trawl through my posts over the years will find that I have said as much about Eddowes and the possibility of her prostituting. Yes, we cannot concluded with certainty however the evidence suggests she was.

Sure, there's a possibility Morris slacked, however its obvious he didn't that night, as Eddowes was murdered at that very time.

And you are assuming Lewande saw Eddowes....merely using your selective logic.

Monty

[Colin Roberts]

I don't believe that a discussion regarding whether Catherine Eddowes was a prostitute is going to provide any insight as to "Where did the Ripper likely live?".

From the thread entitled "Laura Richards knows who the ripper was":

From the initial post of the thread entitled "Where did the Ripper likely live?":

..., something I've read often is that the Ripper was likely local to Whitechapel, that his being able to escape from the crime scenes so swiftly and without being noticed or captured lends to at least a working knowledge of the streets of Whitechapel and the alleys. The fact that the crimes--the canonical five anyway, along with Tabram--happened in a rather close proximity suggests that Whitechapel was where the killer lived.

Do any of you agree that he was probably a local to Whitechapel? If so, have any of you ever proposed where he might've lived, what street?

I don't mind admitting that it is extremely disheartening to see that thread degenerating, as it has, - over the course of the most recent two-week period, and through the duration of its 112 posts - into a discussion regarding whether Catherine Eddowes was soliciting when she met her demise, without so much as a mention - from anyone - of the analysis that I have been presenting, in this thread.

Oh, well!

~~~

The first two, of the following three images, have been 'improved', so I believe, in as much as the color-intensity of each of the respective isopleths, has been progressively diminished, in conjunction with the spectral progression that dictates its hue; i.e. in conjunction with the outward progression, from red, to orange, to yellow, etc.

This 'improvement' is intended to emphasize the fact that the density of the applicable geographic-profile probability distribution, itself, progressively diminishes, in conjunction with that spectral progression.

The third, of the following three images, is a 'new release'.


Accumulation of Probability Distribution (Elliptical): Murder-Site Mean-Center, to Extent of Fifty Percent Accumulation (Click Image, to Enlarge in flickr)
Underlying Aerial Imagery: Copyright Google Earth, 2010
Overlying Plots, Labels and Color-Shadings: Copyright Colin C. Roberts, 2011

50.00% Accumulation of Probability Distribution

The original (unrevised) manifestation of my Geographic Profile Model would suggest a perceptual probability¹ of 50.00% that 'Jack the Ripper' resided somewhere within the above color-shaded elliptical region, during the latter months of 1888.

In other words, it would suggest that we should perceive a chance of as much as 1-in-2 that 'Jack the Ripper' resided somewhere - during the latter months of 1888 - within the above color-shaded elliptical region, having an area of 1.00 square-miles.


Accumulation of Probability Distribution (Elliptical): Murder-Site Mean-Center, to Extent of Seventy Percent Accumulation (Click Image, to Enlarge in flickr)
Underlying Aerial Imagery: Copyright Google Earth, 2010
Overlying Plots, Labels and Color-Shadings: Copyright Colin C. Roberts, 2011

70.00% Accumulation of Probability Distribution

The original (unrevised) manifestation of my Geographic Profile Model would suggest a perceptual probability¹ of 70.00% that 'Jack the Ripper' resided somewhere within the above color-shaded elliptical region, during the latter months of 1888.

In other words, it would suggest that we should perceive a chance of at least 2-in-3 that 'Jack the Ripper' resided somewhere - during the latter months of 1888 - within the above color-shaded elliptical region, having an area of 2.54 square-miles.


Accumulation of Probability Distribution (Elliptical): Murder-Site Mean-Center, to Extent of Ninety Percent Accumulation (Click Image, to Enlarge in flickr)
Underlying Aerial Imagery: Copyright Google Earth, 2010
Overlying Plots, Labels and Color-Shadings: Copyright Colin C. Roberts, 2011

90.00% Accumulation of Probability Distribution

The original (unrevised) manifestation of my Geographic Profile Model would suggest a perceptual probability¹ of 90.00% that 'Jack the Ripper' resided somewhere within the above color-shaded elliptical region, during the latter months of 1888.

In other words, it would suggest that we should perceive a chance of as much as 9-in-10 that 'Jack the Ripper' resided somewhere - during the latter months of 1888 - within the above color-shaded elliptical region, having an area of 7.72 square-miles.

¹ As we are dealing with a retrospective probability, we must refer to it as being 'perceptual', as opposed to being 'actual': The reason being that there is an actual probability of 100.00% that 'Jack of Ripper' resided wherever he did, during the latter months of 1888; as well as an actual probability of 0.00% that he resided anywhere else, during the same.

~~~

Red (i.e. Area within the Inner-Most Contour): Accumulation of Probability Distribution (Elliptical), from Murder-Site Mean-Center, to Extent of 10.00% Accumulation
- Standard Deviations from Murder-Site Mean-Center (Elliptical): 0.30
- Semi-Major Axis: 214.97 Yards
- Semi-Minor Axis: 152.48 Yards
- Area: 0.03 Square-Miles
- Accumulation of Probability Distribution: 10 Percentage Points
- Distribution Density: 300.81 Percentage Points per Square-Mile

Red/Orange (i.e. Total Area within the Two Inner-Most Contours): Accumulation of Probability Distribution (Elliptical), from Murder-Site Mean-Center, to Extent of 20.00% Accumulation
- Standard Deviations from Murder-Site Mean-Center (Elliptical): 0.61
- Semi-Major Axis: 434.50 Yards
- Semi-Minor Axis: 308.18 Yards
- Area: 0.14 Square-Miles
- Accumulation of Probability Distribution: 20 Percentage Points
- Distribution Density: 147.27 Percentage Points per Square-Mile

Red/Orange/Yellow (i.e. Total Area within the Three Inner-Most Contours): Accumulation of Probability Distribution (Elliptical), from Murder-Site Mean-Center, to Extent of 30.00% Accumulation
- Standard Deviations from Murder-Site Mean-Center (Elliptical): 0.94
- Semi-Major Axis: 663.79 Yards
- Semi-Minor Axis: 470.81 Yards
- Area: 0.32 Square-Miles
- Accumulation of Probability Distribution: 30 Percentage Points
- Distribution Density: 94.65 Percentage Points per Square-Mile

Red/Orange/Yellow/Yellow-Green (i.e. Total Area within the Four Inner-Most Contours): Accumulation of Probability Distribution (Elliptical), from Murder-Site Mean-Center, to Extent of 40.00% Accumulation
- Standard Deviations from Murder-Site Mean-Center (Elliptical): 1.29
- Semi-Major Axis: 909.66 Yards
- Semi-Minor Axis: 645.20 Yards
- Area: 0.60 Square-Miles
- Accumulation of Probability Distribution: 40 Percentage Points
- Distribution Density: 67.20 Percentage Points per Square-Mile

Red/Orange/Yellow/Yellow-Green/Lime-Green (i.e. Total Area within the Five Inner-Most Contours): Accumulation of Probability Distribution (Elliptical), from Murder-Site Mean-Center, to Extent of 50.00% Accumulation
- Standard Deviations from Murder-Site Mean-Center (Elliptical): 1.67
- Semi-Major Axis: 1,181.71 Yards
- Semi-Minor Axis: 838.16 Yards
- Area: 1.00 Square-Miles
- Accumulation of Probability Distribution: 50 Percentage Points
- Distribution Density: 49.77 Percentage Points per Square-Mile

Red/Orange/Yellow/Yellow-Green/Lime-Green/Green (i.e. Total Area within the Six Inner-Most Contours): Accumulation of Probability Distribution (Elliptical), from Murder-Site Mean-Center, to Extent of 60.00% Accumulation
- Standard Deviations from Murder-Site Mean-Center (Elliptical): 2.11
- Semi-Major Axis: 1,495.22 Yards
- Semi-Minor Axis: 1,060.53 Yards
- Area: 1.61 Square-Miles
- Accumulation of Probability Distribution: 60 Percentage Points
- Distribution Density: 37.31 Percentage Points per Square-Mile

Red/Orange/Yellow/Yellow-Green/Lime-Green/Green/Aqua (i.e. Total Area within the Seven Inner-Most Contours): Accumulation of Probability Distribution (Elliptical), from Murder-Site Mean-Center, to Extent of 70.00% Accumulation
- Standard Deviations from Murder-Site Mean-Center (Elliptical): 2.66
- Semi-Major Axis: 1,879.80 Yards
- Semi-Minor Axis: 1,333.30 Yards
- Area: 2.54 Square-Miles
- Accumulation of Probability Distribution: 70 Percentage Points
- Distribution Density: 27.54 Percentage Points per Square-Mile

Red/Orange/Yellow/Yellow-Green/Lime-Green/Green/Aqua/Blue (i.e. Total Area within the Eight Inner-Most Contours): Accumulation of Probability Distribution (Elliptical), from Murder-Site Mean-Center, to Extent of 80.00% Accumulation
- Standard Deviations from Murder-Site Mean-Center (Elliptical): 3.39
- Semi-Major Axis: 2,400.16 Yards
- Semi-Minor Axis: 1,702.38 Yards
- Area: 4.14 Square-Miles
- Accumulation of Probability Distribution: 80 Percentage Points
- Distribution Density: 19.30 Percentage Points per Square-Mile

Red/Orange/Yellow/Yellow-Green/Lime-Green/Green/Aqua/Blue/Indigo (i.e. Total Area within the Nine Contours): Accumulation of Probability Distribution (Elliptical), from Murder-Site Mean-Center, to Extent of 90.00% Accumulation
- Standard Deviations from Murder-Site Mean-Center (Elliptical): 4.63
- Semi-Major Axis: 3,276.65 Yards
- Semi-Minor Axis: 2,324.06 Yards
- Area: 7.72 Square-Miles
- Accumulation of Probability Distribution: 90 Percentage Points
- Distribution Density: 11.65 Percentage Points per Square-Mile

In this instance, the blended spectral progression, from red to indigo, i.e. from 0˚ to 240˚, of the color-shaded elliptical region's hue is measured as follows:

Red, i.e. 0˚
- Distribution Accumulation: 0.00% - 10.00%

Orange, i.e. 30˚
- Distribution Accumulation: 10.00% - 20.00%

Yellow, i.e. 60˚
- Distribution Accumulation: 20.00% - 30.00%

Yellow-Green, i.e. 90˚
- Distribution Accumulation: 30.00% - 40.00%

Lime-Green, i.e. 120˚
- Distribution Accumulation: 40.00% - 50.00%

Green, i.e. 150˚
- Distribution Accumulation: 50.00% - 60.00%

Aqua, i.e. 180˚
- Distribution Accumulation: 60.00% - 70.00%

Blue, i.e. 210˚
- Distribution Accumulation: 70.00% - 80.00%

Indigo, i.e. 240˚
- Distribution Accumulation: 80.00% - 90.00%

As the spectral progression is blended, each of the ten-percentage-point intervals of distribution accumulation is defined by an elliptical white contour that facilitates the depiction of the respective interval, as a distinct isopleth.

[Colin Roberts]

Having looked at maps of the Whitechapel area, I can't see that there are 'a maze of alleyways' in the area.

Contrary to a widely held misconception, the 'Whitechapel' area, in 1888, did not consist of a 'maze of alleyways' that would have necessitated an intimate 'local' knowledge, on the part of 'Jack the Ripper'.

In fact, the overwhelming majority of the area's courts and alleyways were cul-de-sacs that lead nowhere.

If one wishes to see a 'maze of alleyways', then one should take a look at the 1873 Ordnance Survey sheets that cover the City of London.

[Sarah]

Sometimes I have wondered if Eddowes knew her killer and could explain why she stopped whilst walking home from prison. In keeping with this thread then if this was so perhaps he was someone living near to Eddowes or the area she was killed. Only a thought which just popped in right this second.

Oh and not that I'm agreeing with Monty or anything but she had been locker up to sober up so probably was in a better state than earlier in the evening so "may" have been aware of Morris' route but I'm not convinced.

Sarah

[Sarah]

Yes, we cannot concluded with certainty however the evidence suggests she was.

Hey Monty

Sorry but which evidence exactly do u mean? The fact she was killed in a dark corner??

[Colin Roberts]

As for whether or not he used the main thoroughfares for his escapes, I think it's fairly obvious that he did not.

It is not at all obvious that he did not!

This is demonstrated particularly well in the Mitre Square case, where his direction of escape - back towards the heart of the murder district - was made pretty clear courtesy of the discarded apron fragment.

I will grant you this particular instance.

His actual route is less clear, ...

Indeed!

..., it is clear he took the most direct route to the apron disposal location (the northern end of Goulston Street), ...

It most certainly is not!

For all we know; he might have wandered aimlessly into Goulston Street.

..., which meant negotiating a "maze" of smaller alleys which would doubtless have befuddled anyone without an intimate knowledge of the area: St. James Passage, Duke Street, Stoney Lane, New Goulston Street. This would have taken approximately five minutes and would have taken him directly to the northern end of Goulston Street which he had only to cross in order to dump the apron.

Jake has demonstrated conclusively that Stoney Lane was not accessible from Houndsditch, in 1888.

Of course, the fact that he did cross it suggests that his bolt-hole resided further east of the disposal location (unhappily for anyone angling for a West End toff).

No, it doesn't!

And, let's desist with the straw-man argumentation.

Just because someone isn't thoroughly convinced that 'Jack the Ripper' was a so-called 'marauder' serial killer, does not mean that he or she is "angling for a West End toff"!

You generate this sort of 'spin' all too often!

The question is, how much further. Well, if it was appreciably further, it would make him one of the "very rare" commuters (according to David Canter).

You appear to be quoting David Canter.

Where? Where, pray tell, has David Canter indicated that 'commuter' serial killers are "very rare"?

I am inclined to believe that you will not be able to answer that question!

Hence, I consider it more than likely that the killer was based in Whitechapel or Spitalfields.

So do I! More or less!



Accumulation of Probability Distribution (Elliptical): Murder-Site Mean-Center, to Extent of Fifty Percent Accumulation (Click Image, to Enlarge in flickr)
Underlying Aerial Imagery: Copyright Google Earth, 2010
Overlying Plots, Labels and Color-Shadings: Copyright Colin C. Roberts, 2011

50.00% Accumulation of Probability Distribution

The original (unrevised) manifestation of my Geographic Profile Model would suggest a perceptual probability¹ of 50.00% that 'Jack the Ripper' resided somewhere within the above color-shaded elliptical region, during the latter months of 1888.

In other words, it would suggest that we should perceive a chance of as much as 1-in-2 that 'Jack the Ripper' resided somewhere - during the latter months of 1888 - within the above color-shaded elliptical region, having an area of 1.00 square-miles.

As it stands, my unrevised model, which is based solely upon the murder-site mean-center, i.e. the southwest corner of the intersection of Wentworth Street and Osborn Street, in the Parish of St. Mary Whitechapel, places Hutchinson's self-proclaimed 1888 domicile within the 89th percentile of the probability distribution pertaining to the elusive 1888 residence of 'Jack the Ripper'.

My revised model, which will be based upon the murder-site mean-center and a theoretical murder-site median-center, will see its focal point at the intersection of Thrawl Street and George Street, in the Parish of Christ Church Spitalfields, and will possibly place the Victoria Home for Working Men within the 95th percentile of its accordant probability distribution.

George Hutchinson has geography on his side! Period!

More so than any other legitimate person of interest!

So, you really don't need to lobby for his candidacy, in a discussion regarding that particular issue: i.e. ... geography.

You really don't!

I can't think of a single "commuter" serial killer who approached, dispatched and disposed of his victims within very easy walking distance of each other.

Neither can I!

But, contrary to popular misconception, a 'killing field', in which the observed parameters are narrowly dispersed and easily traversable, could be - that's could be - indicative of a perpetrator that was intimately familiar with its immediate vicinity, but perhaps not as familiar with its broader surroundings.

I'll bet Emma Smith didn't think twice about making her way to the Parish of St. Anne Limehouse, on the evening before she was attacked.

The fact that she was seen there, by her fellow lodger, Margaret Hames, might suggest that many a Spitalfields dollymop was quite mobile.

What would have prevented George Hutchinson from venturing that far, in search of his prey?

Surely, he was familiar with his broader surroundings!

But, would some 'commuter' that might have had a particular affinity for the sort of middle-aged, estranged, alcoholic, destitute dollymop that tended to flock to the environs of Spitalfields, from all other quarters of the metropolis, have had such a familiarity? With the broader surroundings, that is?

[curious]

I'll bet Emma Smith didn't think twice about making her way to the Parish of St. Anne Limehouse, on the evening before she was attacked.

The fact that she was seen there, by her fellow lodger, Margaret Hames, might suggest that many a Spitalfields dollymop was quite mobile.
. . .

But, would some 'commuter' that might have had a particular affinity for the sort of middle-aged, estranged, alcoholic, destitute dollymop that tended to flock to the environs of Spitalfields, from all other quarters of the metropolis, have had such a familiarity? With the broader surroundings, that is?

I'm not sure I understand what you are saying.

It almost sounds as though you suspect that JtR would likely have been an immigrant (not necessarily from a different country, but someone new to the area) who knew his way around Whitechapel/Spitalfields, but had not yet learned a wide area?

But that last sentence suggests you suspect a commuter who really knows a very small area WELL -- well enough to kill and then escape undetected.

What are you saying?

curious

[Monty]

I don't believe that a discussion regarding whether Catherine Eddowes was a prostitute is going to provide any insight as to "Where did the Ripper likely live?".

From the thread entitled "Laura Richards knows who the ripper was":

Nor is it entitled "Laura Richards knows who the ripper was".

Monty