Nicola Bulley, what does everybody think?

[etenguy]

BUT…how likely is it that a young woman would have left her phone on a secluded bench for any length of time…..close to zero I’d think. Could she have put it down and forgotten it? If it was me…possible, but for a young woman, unlikely I’d think but not impossible if she’d been distracted. Who knows?

Hi Herlock

I wondered if the phone was left behind deliberately, to avoid the possibility of being tracked through the phone.

[Yabs]

The dog was found lurking between the bench/phone and the river.
That suggests to me she probably went in the river, a dog would instinctively lurk at the point they last see you.
If someone took her away the dog would try to follow and would be unlikely to turn back and return to that space.

Although why she hasn’t been found yet is baffling, I just hope I’m wrong and she is found ok and well.

[Herlock Sholmes]

We’re all in speculation territory of course but as it would seem unlikely that she left the scene unwillingly did she go with someone that she knew? Someone that she might have been having an affair with? Someone who had a red van that you can sleep in which he’d parked nearby and fortunately for him, or because he knew it, it was in a cctv blind spot. That was a line that I was just considering…..but, or should I say BUT…how likely is it that a young woman would have left her phone on a secluded bench for any length of time…..close to zero I’d think. Could she have put it down and forgotten it? If it was me…possible, but for a young woman, unlikely I’d think but not impossible if she’d been distracted. Who knows?

[Herlock Sholmes]

I think it's based on the last witness sighting then the time when someone who knew her found the dog (who they recognised at the bench.

Cheers Ms D. I’d got the impression that it was linked to the call but that didn’t seem to make sense.

[Ms Diddles]

I'm inclined to believe in an accidental drowning.

Just because there is no body yet does not mean there won't be. It can be months, if at all when the body surfaces.

I can't believe an abductor would find the one path he would not be spotted or heard. As no vehicles can get down there, he would have had to have dragged her literally kicking and screaming and the dog going nuts. I don't think it would have been unnoticed.

For me the only plausible alternative to drowning was if she was taken by some kind of small boat. If an abductor pretended he was in trouble and needed assistance, he could in theory knock her out as she is trying to help and take her off in the boat to a point where he could have had a vehicle.

I stick with a sad tragic accident for now based on the information we know.

On balance I agree, Ero!

it's just that friends have confirmed that she could swim and the river really didn't look very treacherous.

I'm honestly not sure.

[Ms Diddles]

How have they established that she vanished within a 10 minute ‘window’?

I think it's based on the last witness sighting then the time when someone who knew her found the dog (who they recognised at the bench.

[Abby Normal]

the chances of her being abducted via boat is close to nil..it just dosnt happen in the real world. and her dog would have been wet.

[Wickerman]

It's just that the river is not that turbulent, it's pretty still, there is a flow but it's only slight. A floating mass is not going to go far, besides, there's a weir just downstream so that is where a body would stop.
I know it seems like a fringe idea, but a boat is about the only means in & out that will leave no trace, but it can't go downstream due to the weir, and only a short distance upstream.
There is a stretch of river just upstream where a vehicle track comes up to the river bank.
Sad case, but fascinating all the same.

[erobitha]

I'm inclined to believe in an accidental drowning.

Just because there is no body yet does not mean there won't be. It can be months, if at all when the body surfaces.

I can't believe an abductor would find the one path he would not be spotted or heard. As no vehicles can get down there, he would have had to have dragged her literally kicking and screaming and the dog going nuts. I don't think it would have been unnoticed.

For me the only plausible alternative to drowning was if she was taken by some kind of small boat. If an abductor pretended he was in trouble and needed assistance, he could in theory knock her out as she is trying to help and take her off in the boat to a point where he could have had a vehicle.

I stick with a sad tragic accident for now based on the information we know.

[Herlock Sholmes]

How have they established that she vanished within a 10 minute ‘window’?

[Herlock Sholmes]

I notice that two different witnesses have said they saw a suspicious looking tatty red van in the village at the that morning.

Yeah I just saw that Wulf. The kind of van you can sleep in.

[Herlock Sholmes]

It dosnt appear to be a large fast moving river, so if she went in and drowned im sure the extensive dive/search would have found her or her dog would have at least jumped in and been wet.

if she simply walked away to voluntarily vanish would she leave her phone,car and dog?? I think not.

Im leaning toward foul play. I could possibly see a scenario where the perp parked nearby, knocked her out/dragged her to his car and drives away. The dog stays or returns to the spot where she last was and where her scent (phone and bench) was strongest. her body is not nearby in the park somewhere as thats where they would have found the dog (and her body).

Abduction id say at this point. and i would interogate extensively those last two people in the park who saw her, especially the one who knew her.

Sadly I tend to agree Abby. Let’s hope that we’re wrong.

[Aethelwulf]

I notice that two different witnesses have said they saw a suspicious looking tatty red van in the village at the right sort of time that morning.

[Herlock Sholmes]

It could still be the case Sting. Perhaps she got caught short, slipped and fell in but wouldn’t they have found some physical evidence of this at the rivers edge?

[Abby Normal]

It dosnt appear to be a large fast moving river, so if she went in and drowned im sure the extensive dive/search would have found her or her dog would have at least jumped in and been wet.

if she simply walked away to voluntarily vanish would she leave her phone,car and dog?? I think not.

Im leaning toward foul play. I could possibly see a scenario where the perp parked nearby, knocked her out/dragged her to his car and drives away. The dog returns to the spot where she last was and where her scent (phone and bench) was strongest. her body is not nearby in the park somewhere as thats where they would have found the dog (and her body).

Abduction id say at this point. and i would interogate extensively those last two people in the park who saw her, especially the one who knew her.